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Dirk’s Shooting Touch Is Aging Well
By Brian Martin
On this day 11 years ago, Dirk Nowitzki scored a career-high 53 points in Dallas' 113-106 overtime win over the Houston Rockets. He shot 15-of-32 from the field, 2-of-5 from three and 21-of-22 from the free throw line and added 16 rebounds, 3 steals and 4 blocks in 50 minutes.
He was 26 years old, in his seventh NBA season, still two years away from his first Finals appearance and three years away from his MVP season in 2007.
Today, 11 years later, Dirk is still shooting his patented one-legged fadeaway jumpers from midrange and punishing teams from 3-point range as one of the league's original stretch fours.
Through the first 18 games of the season, Dirk is shooting 50.4% from the field, 44.6% from three and 90.6% from the free throw line.
Dirk's 2015-16 Season Stats
Games FGM-A FG% 3PM-A 3P% FTM-A FT%
18 119-236 50.4 29-65 44.6 48-53 90.6
Let's put those numbers into a bit more perspective:
- Dirk is one of only three players to shoot at least 50% from the field, 40% from three and 90% from the line this season (minimum 200 minutes played). The others: Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, both of whom are a decade younger than Dirk.
- Dirk has shot over 50% for a season just twice in his career; the last time was back in 2010-11, the year the Mavs won the title.
- Dirk's 3-point percentage is currently a career-best; he's shot over 40% for a season four times in his first 17 seasons, with his career-high 42.1% coming in 2009-10.
- At the beginning of this week, Dirk was shooting over 50% from three before subpar outings in Sacramento (0-4) and Portland (2-7) dropped him to 44.6% - still ranked 13th in the league in 3-point accuracy.
- As one of the best free throw shooters in NBA history (his 87.9 career percentage ranks 16th all-time), Dirk has shot over 90% three times in his first 17 seasons, with his career-best 91.5% coming in 2009-10.
Dirk's Season Shot Chart
Could Dirk really put together his most efficient shooting season in year No. 18 and at the age of 37?
While there have been times that Dirk's age has shown - Exhibit A is the "cold blooded" move by CJ McCollum against Dirk on Tuesday night - when it comes to his shot, Dirk is still as lethal as ever.
As we near the quarter mark of the 2015-16 season, the question is whether or not Dirk can keep up this level of shooting for the entire season. If so, it would be unprecedented for a player his age.
According to Basketball Reference, there have been 12 seasons in which a player shot at least 50% from the field, 40% from three and 90% from the free throw line. Dirk's 2006-07 season is one of them as he is one of only eight players to record that level of shooting efficiency since the 3-point shot was introduced in 1979-80. The others: Steve Nash (4x), Larry Bird (2x), Kevin Durant, Reggie Miller, Mark Price, Jose Calderon and Steve Kerr.
Dirk and the 50-40-90 season (all seasons with 50+ FG%)
Year GP FG% 3P% FT%
2006-07 78 50.2% 41.6% 90.4%
2010-11 73 51.7% 39.3% 89.2%
2015-16 18 50.4% 44.6% 90.6%
Nash was the oldest player to put together a 50-40-90 season at the age of 35 in the 2009-10 season; it was his third straight season reaching those shooting marks. If Dirk can keep up this pace, he would be the oldest player to ever do so, just a few months shy of turning 38.
If Dirk can get his 3-point percentage back over 45% he would be in even more elite company, as there have only been two seasons in which a player had a 50-45-90 season - Nash in 2007-08 (50.4%, 47.0%, 90.6%) and Kerr in 1995-96 (50.6%, 51.5%, 92.9%).
Kerr is the standard bearer with the only 50-50-90 season on record for a player that played at least 1640 minutes (20.0 per game over 82 games). Kyle Korver was on pace for 50-50-90 for much of last season before trailing off after the All-Star break. Korver's pre All-Star numbers were 51.2 FG%, 52.3 3P% and 91.1 FG% through 53 games, but he finished at 48.7 FG%, a league-leading 49.2 3P% and 89.8 FT%.
Will Dirk suffer a similar fate or can he maintain this level of shooting accuracy over the final three quarters of the season?
Either way he is set to make history this season as he is just 163 points from passing Shaquille O'Neal for 6th place on the NBA's all-time scoring list. At his current scoring rate of 17.5 points per game, Dirk would need just 10 games to pass Shaq's mark of 28,596 career points.