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Old 11-05-2004, 01:51 PM   #41
grndmstr_c
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Default RE: Hopfully Dampier starts to become a double double guy soon..

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But back to my original point. FG% is more important. And if the Mavs keep holding teams to a low FG%, the rebounding will not that important ecause on most games it will work itself out.
If the Mavs keep holding teams to a low fg%, AND keep shoting 49% or better the rebounding probably won't matter much. The problem is that you've conveniently ignored the fact that these two games have been won on the strength of some very hot shooting from the field that will almost certainly not be replicated throughout the season. Beyond that, I've never discounted the imprtance of fg%. Obviously, if we can get relatively comfortable wins against a pair of playoff teams from last year while rebounding like crap then I'd say it's safe to infer that an 8-13% spread in own fg% minus opponent's fg% is worth quite a bit. Unfortunately, it's not realistic to assume that margin's going to hold up given that last year not a sinlge team in the league managed a 5% margin in fg% differential.

And here's the thing, bayliss. You keep saying that fg% is more important, and to some extent that argument is reasonable, since fluctuations in fg% differential will have larger effects on the scoreboard relative to equivalent fluctuations in reb% differential, but when you take a closer look it's precisely because of the magnitude of the effect of a given swing in fg% that getting our rebounding together will be so important. Look at it this way. When the Mavs' fg% differential comes down to earth, even if it stays at 5%, which would probably be best in the league, we're giving up about 10-12 points per game (in terms of point differential) from the 11% fg% differential we've averaged in the first two games. By comparison, when offensive and defensive rebounding opportunities are held constant, we're grabbing only about 46% of the available rebounds, which would be good enough for worst in the league if that pace were maintained for an entire season. If we can get that up to at least 50%, which IMO is a vey reasonable goal, that should make up for an extra 4-5 ppg (differential) over what our rebounding is currently buying us. Is that as big a fluctuation as what alterations in fg% will bring about? No. But when the Mavs start losing points as their fg% differential stabilizes and rebounding is the only way to get some of those points back, tell me how overrated a statistic you think it is then.
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(Btw, Dallas was tied in rebounding with the Kings two nights ago. So there rebounding was off in only only 1 game.)
The Kings also had 13 team rebounds to Dallas' 3. New Orleans held an 11-4 edge in that category as well. The Mavs have lost the battle on the boards in both games.
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