[V]

Originally posted by: EricaLubarsky

summer league can make poor players look good. I can't provide an example but there have been plenty of examples discussed here. A poster here was talking about how he saw a guy drop 45-5-10 in a summer league game, and when the season came, the player wasn't even NBA caliber. Pre-season can be very deceptive.

Of course there are players that blow summer league away and become good in the NBA as well. It's bittersweet, but I am very excited to see if M'Benga can be a good or great player in this league. We may lose him, but he will be one of the best subplots of this season.

You're absolutely correct. Summer league can make poor players look good ... but the opposite in not true. I know it sounds obvious but it's been documented statistically & it's compelling. Great performace means almost nothing but poor performance usually means the player will never do well in the NBA. Now, by all accounts Benga had a great summer league. In fact he stood out. But all that really means is he still has a shot at becoming a good NBA player.

That said, there are some things to look for in the summer stats that are clear indicators of future NBA performace. Strangly, one of the best for defense is blocks per foul. If you're better than average your likely a better than average defender. Kirilenko may be the best recent case study. In summer league he averaged an ASTOUNDING 1.4 blocks per foul. Every scout in the league knew Kirilenko would be a defensive force in the League some day... and it didn't take very long.

M'Benga is overly agressive at this stage of his development and shot blocking is generally considered the most difficult basketball skill for a young player to learn. Benga needs to learn when to attack the shooter ... and when to concede. That said, he averaged .7 blocks per foul in the RMR ... and that ain't bad. Especially when you consider that Benga is just learning the NBA game. Fouls are called differently in Europe.

Before you react to the remainder of the post understand I'm not suggesting that Benga is going to be one of the best shot blockers of all-time ... but for comprision consider the following:

Mutumbo ranks number three all time in blocks per game. He averaged .77 blocks per foul in his rookie season.

Olojuwan (number four all-time) averaged .63 blocks per foul in his rookie season.

Ratliff (number eight all-time) took three full years to establish himself as a non foul-machine. Leading up to that turning point - in year three of his career - Theo played 24 minutes per game, and was considered an impact player on defense while only registering .65 blocks per foul. Ratliff averages .9 blocks per foul for his career while last year he ranked #1 in the NBA in Blocks Per Game(3.61); ranked #1 in the NBA in total blocks(307.0); and ranked #1 in the NBA in Blocks Per 48 Minutes(5.53)

Of course you know that Benga lead the RMR in blocks, blocks per game, and blocks per 48 minutes. He also had more total blocks than 4 of the other 10 teams in the summer league.