By Sam Smith
Lottery winner may double up
Oden is grand prize in Tuesday drawing, but Conley is wild card
Published May 21, 2007
Tuesday is Powerball day in the NBA, the NBA draft lottery, the seventh game of the losers' championship.
And it's more exciting than last year, when the No. 1 overall pick was Andrea Bargnani, or the year before when it was Andrew Bogut. They're nice players, but hardly ones to turn around a franchise, promise a future and excite the ticket-buying public.
That happened in 2003 with LeBron James. Before that it was Tim Duncan in 1997 and Shaquille O'Neal in 1992. These guys come along about twice a decade.
And it's time again, with Ohio State center Greg Oden the consensus No. 1 pick … unless the Celtics get it? I think he was joking, but one personnel guru said the feeling was the Celtics were the only team that might take Texas' Kevin Durant No. 1 (no booby prize) because of general manager Danny Ainge's unusual reliance on brain typing for draft picks.
In some ways, this lottery is bigger than the multi-state Powerball. There you can become a millionaire. Everyone in this lottery will be a millionaire. This is a chance to win a championship, which money rarely can buy.
There has been some talk that the team that drafts Oden will be told he wants to play with point guard Mike Conley Jr., his lifelong friend and floor leader. And I believe it. It's hardly unusual; Kobe Bryant dictated his way to Los Angeles out of the draft. Conley's dad is representing his son and Oden, and Conley the player is no slouch. In fact, many teams rate him the draft's best point guard. The two most difficult positions to fill are center and point guard. With those, you can begin building a team.
If the Timberwolves happen to jump from No. 7 in the preliminary odds to No. 1, I believe they finally would deal Kevin Garnett to put in place an Oden/Conley building project, something to get excited about. Plus, Oden needs someone like Conley. Despite Oden's high skill level, he's a more passive personality, whereas Conley is a born leader. The pairing would provide Oden the comfort zone he needs to ease his transition.
A team like the Bulls could become big players. The Bulls have the Knicks' pick, which has the ninth-best odds to get No. 1 and a chance to get into the top three. If the Bulls were to get lucky and get No. 1, they'd probably keep Oden. But he's not exactly a classic post-up scorer yet and is still a kid despite his appearance.
The Suns wanted to get together to commiserate following their controversial playoff loss to the Spurs, and Amare Stoudemire missed the Saturday meeting. Coach Mike D'Antoni dismissed his absence with a joke, but D'Antoni and star point guard Steve Nash concede the Suns have chemistry issues. In addition, managing partner Robert Sarver soon will take complete control of the franchise from Jerry Colangelo, and D'Antoni knows Sarver is concerned about being in luxury tax territory.
"We have to be careful tinkering with this too much," D'Antoni told Phoenix reporters. "You can get an All-Star out of the draft. I don't want to think we've got to go crazy."
Three of the four NBA playoff survivors are defensive, grind-it-out teams, and the fourth, the Cavaliers, are a wannabe with coach Mike Brown.
And while their more wide-open style didn't fail, the Suns could be a vastly different team next season.
They won Game 4 in San Antonio to reclaim the home-court advantage they lost in Game 1 when the bloodied Nash couldn't return after a late-game collision with Tony Parker. And before Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended, they were in excellent position to move on because they dominated the Jazz in the regular season.
The Suns could have the Hawks' pick, plus they will have the Cavaliers' at No. 21 and their own at No. 29.
If I were the Bulls and I got the No. 1 pick, I'd try to trade for Stoudemire. And my guess is with Stoudemire averaging about $15 million for the next four years, the Suns would strongly consider making a move to ease the financial burden and maybe the locker-room tension. The Bulls have less than a 2 percent chance of landing the top pick, though, so it's hardly a likely scenario.
Depending on who draws the top pick, it's a good possibility that team makes a move to accommodate Oden. And it means a number of top players could be on the market.
The Grizzlies have the best odds and certainly would deal Pau Gasol, in part to cut costs with the team up for sale.
No one ever knows what the Celtics are up to, but would getting Oden lead finally to a Paul Pierce deal? He would fit well with Al Jefferson and give the Celtics the chance to build a great young core? The Celtics certainly need a point guard.
You figure the Bucks, with the third-best odds, would deal Bogut. He's a solid high-post, passing center, but that's Oden's position. The Suns get the Hawks' pick unless it is top three. If the Hawks get No. 1, Zaza Pachulia would be an underrated pickup for someone and shouldn't cost much.
There are some solid players potentially available such as the Timberwolves' Garnett, the Trail Blazers' Zach Randolph, the Sonics' Nick Collison, the Bobcats' Gerald Wallace and the 76ers' Andre Iguodala. What if some of them come on the market? How does that change the makeup of a team? There are some very good players at the top of this draft.
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