Hey Rob,
who has the lead right now doesn´t mean anything. O´Grady is a sprinter. He will lose hours in the Alps. The drivers that want to win the tour wouldn´t care if they lost 10 min. now to someone like O`Grady or Kirsipuu. They would even let Jalaber or Jaksche gain some minutes cause they know they will beat them in the mountains. So the only interessting question regarding the tour victory is what time lies between the favorites. These are Armstrong, Ullrich, Beloki, Moreau. Casagranda already had to give up because of injury. The others are pretty close right now.
That will change tomorrow, in the team time-trial. Telekom should be the strongest time trial team this year with Ullrich, Vinokurov and Klöden all being very good in time trial. Wesemann, Heppner and Bölts are also good at it. USPostal has more good hill climbers this year like Heras and Pena. I think Armstrong will lose some time tomorrow.
Ullrich will win the Tour this year.
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