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Old 05-08-2010, 10:43 PM   #37
SeriousSummer
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The short answer to the thread question is build a championship contender around Dirk. If Dirk leaves, then the Mavs are out in the weeds again just like the 1990s.

So first we need to understand what it takes to be a championship level team in the NBA today. The first thing you have to be able to do to win in today's NBA is score. With the new limits on hand checking, etc. it is no long possible to win by scoring 85 points and holding your opponent to 80 points. The Mavs beat the Spurs when they scored 100. The Suns have won three straight by scoring 110 points per game. The Magic put up 115 today in beating Atlanta, and the Lakers edged the Jazz 111-110.

That doesn't mean teams don't need to play good defense, but if you can't put at least 100 points up per game, then you can't win play off series in the NBA today.

As presently constructed, the Mavs can't put up 100 point per game and still play passable defense. For most of the year the Mavs started three players that weren't notable scoring threats--Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion and Erick Dampier. Yes, all three players could score in certain situations, but none of then can consistently make their own shot. Dirk plus Caron Butler plus those three can't score enough to win.

So many times the Mavs had to compensate for their lack of scoring by going small and playing Barea, Terry or Beaubois excessive minutes. Now they could score enough to compete, but the team couldn't play passable defense with Barea and Terry playing big minutes. During the regular season, the Mavs got away with playing different teams to score (going small) and to play defense (the starting line up). During the play offs, we saw that strategy fail. Changes are necessary.

Let's start by looking at the starting five. The Mavs have three nonscorers. You can get away with one; or two if you have two players that demand double teams--two superstars. The Mavs have one in Dirk. I only see two (barely) available superstars that the Mavs have any legitimate chance to get: Joe Johnson and Dwayne Wade. Lebron James is beyond the Mavs pay grade. He'll either stay in Cleveland, go to New York, or someone will put together a better package than the Mavs can for James. I don't think Bosch helps the Mavs very much. He plays too much the same position as Dirk. I don't see a good trading match up for Amare and I'm not sure he gets the Mavs where they need to go.

If the Mavs can make a deal for Joe Johnson, then it's going to cost Damp (for salary match) and two out of three of Butler, Beaubois and either a 2011 or 2012 1st rounder (depending on when the deal is made). Wade costs you all three of Butler, Beaubois and a draft choice. So the Mavs end up with something like the following:

Kidd, Barea
Wade or Johnson, Terry
Marion, Tim Thomas
Dirk, Najera
Haywood, and the best back up center you can get for the MLE.

Those teams are legitimate championship contenders, and the easiest way to get there. My next post will discuss what the Mavs can do if they can't get a superstar that commands double teams.

Last edited by SeriousSummer; 05-08-2010 at 11:03 PM.
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