Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
I don't think you have that right. Good chance? In modern English, that usually means more than 50%
1st round exit - 0% chance of keeping our pick
14th (and lose play-in) - 2.4% chance of keeping pick
13th (and lose play-in) - 4.7% chance of keeping pick
12th - 7.2% chance of keeping pick
11th - 9.4% chance of. keeping pick
10th - 13.9% chance of keeping pick
It's unlikely we can even get to 10th worst record in the league, but even then we have an 86.1% chance of giving the pick to New York. I don't think I'd call that a "good chance"
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Not sure where you got this information, but it is just not correct.
If we end up with the 10th-worst record, the only way we DON'T keep our pick is if one of the teams 11-14 leapfrog us during the lottery selection for one of the top-4 picks. We would then be pushed down and out of the top-10 based on inverse record.
Based on my math, if we end up with the 10th worst record, there's a 27.4% chance that one of the teams 11-14 leapfrog us and we lose our pick, meaning there's a 72.6% chance we keep our pick.
Independent of this, there would be a 10.3% chance of us leaping into the top-4.
Meanwhile there is a 0.0% chance we do jack shit in the playoffs.