Armstrong is at his best right from the beginning. He just doesn´t care if he falls back in the first stages, because these stages are flat. There are often groups of drivers that reach the end of the stage before the favorites. But those groups only have a chance to gain minutes if the field doesn´t go full speed. If one of the favorites (Armstrong, Ullrich etc.) was in one of those groups the field (the other teams) would go full speed and the group wouldn´t have a chance. If Armstrong would attack now some of Ullrichs or Belokis helpers would catch him back.
In the mountains it´s different. Only a few drivers in each team to climb mountains well. So if Armstrong or Ullrich attack there, the other teams have less options (drivers) to counter the attack. The last option is the strongest driver of the team itsself. So that´s what you usually see at the last mountain of a real mountain stage (Hore or premiere category). The helpers are tired then and just not good enough to follow the favorites any more. So you usually have a group of 5-10 drivers fighting for overall time and (sometimes) for the stage win (if they didn´t let someone go earlier on). And that´s the moment were someone like Armstrong or Ullrich attacks, cause his direct rivel must counter, if he can. If not he will lose time.
So regarding your question: Armstrong is in top shape allready. He just doesn´t care right now. He only cares for Beloki, Botero, Ullrich and Moreau. He will wait to attack these until Monday at least. But perhaps Ullrich will attack ánd gain time (I hope so). Anyways they will battle it out man to man. Armstrong has a tactical advantage though because he has Heras who is a very good mountain climber. He could very well be in that group of the 5 best, and if he attacks Ullrich must react while Armstrong can watch and save energy. I just hope Livingston will do the same for Ullrich.
And lastly: Ullrich is known for getting stronger from stage to stage, cause he often isn´t in good shape at the beginning of the tour.
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