Quote:
Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart
We should keep in mind that two of the top three best players taken in the 2017 draft were picked 9 and 12 while the number 1 pick is shooting airballs in practice. I know this draft looks front loaded with talent, but remember that Mitchell didn't make a big rise until very close to the draft.
I'm not being in denial as I want Ayton as much as anyone, but I think there is actually a good amount of talent til about 9 or 10. A few months ago we were screaming top 5 or bust, but a few players have risen and more should as well.
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That's why I like to always bring up historical stats. People think that a first overall pick is a guaranteed gem, but for every LeBron, Kareem, Admiral, Magic, Walton, Robertson, and Hakeem, there is a Kwame Brown, Joe Smith, Michael Olowokandi, Greg Oden, or Anthony Bennett.
of the :
1st pick - 70% became stars
2nd pick - 60% became stars
3rd pick - 85% became stars (strangely)
4th pick - 60% became stars
5th pick - 60%
6th pick - 25%
7th pick - 30%
8th pick - 35%
9th pick - 30%
10th pick - 35%
(stardom for this is determined by basically a rating (similar to PER) of 20.)
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Obviously you can't look at that and say you have a 70% chance of drafting a star if you draft 1st overall, but it does show two things
1) You aren't guaranteed a star with any draft pick
2) There are some solid stars sprinkled throughout all 60 picks (and a highish chance for all of the first ten picks)
Also, somehow we've had more stars drafted at 3rd than 1st. Weird.