Originally Posted by FollowedKPtodallas
How Luka Doncic is making his NBA MVP leap so quickly
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7:27 PM ET
Mike Schmitz
ESPN
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In January 2018, 18-year-old Luka Doncic was stuck in a slump. For months, I had called him the top prospect in the upcoming NBA draft with the makings of a future star. But during this slide with Real Madrid, the questions surrounding Doncic's outlook as a potential No. 1 pick started to grow around the league.
Doncic had been ejected after six minutes against Valencia on Dec. 19, then Maccabi Tel Aviv limited him to 11 points, 4 assists and 3 turnovers on 3-for-10 shooting a few weeks later. Carrying extra weight, Doncic looked heavy-footed with the ball, suffering defensive miscues and occasional emotional outbursts on the floor.
At the time, with Doncic still No. 1 in our top-100 rankings and mock draft, I wrote that, "poking too many holes in [Doncic's] game given the NBA's emphasis on pass-dribble-shoot basketball could cause teams to miss on a special talent."
Between then and the June draft, Doncic's stock began to slip. Consensus among NBA teams moved to Arizona's Deandre Ayton as the safer No. 1 selection, so the center surpassed Doncic in our rankings later that spring. At the draft, three teams (the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks) passed on the opportunity to take Doncic. A year and a half later, he has emerged as a 20-year-old MVP candidate for the Dallas Mavericks.
So, why didn't everyone view Doncic as a transcendent star at the time, even after his proven production as a Euroleague MVP? And how has he improved since entering the NBA?
Let's dive into Doncic's path to this point and what's next for his superstar trajectory.
LISTEN: The ESPN Daily podcast on Luka Doncic
What teams and scouts missed with Doncic
Despite moving Ayton to No. 1 in our rankings to reflect the NBA consensus, both ESPN's Jonathan Givony and I continued to say that Doncic was our pick as the best player in the 2018 class. But no one knew for sure that Doncic would become a legitimate All-NBA player this quickly. There were real internal debates about Doncic, Ayton or someone else as the top prospect -- and not just among the three teams that passed on him. And even the most optimistic members of the Mavs say they didn't expect this kind of play from Doncic until Year 3 or 4.
So what factors played a role in Doncic's slide on draft night?
Overscouting and fatigue
Throughout his last season with Real Madrid in 2017-18, Doncic would look doughy and tired in front of some NBA executives, yet spry and magical in front of others, depending on when they caught him. Between Eurobasket, Euroleague and the Liga ACB (Spanish league), Doncic played 79 games during his draft-eligible season (not counting exhibitions), well over double the sample for most college prospects. Add in the 123 pro games he played before that season and there was far more opportunity for evaluators to poke holes in his game based on some inefficient individual performances.
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On one hand, Doncic's production over that kind of volume should have served as further proof of his special talent. Before the 2018 draft, ESPN's Kevin Pelton projected Doncic to average the most wins above replacement player (WARP) for any of the 800-plus prospects in his database going back to 2003. Instead of that production becoming overwhelming, some of Doncic's weaker moments took hold.
Scouts came up to me at the pre-draft combine in Chicago to say how slow and thick Doncic looked in the Euroleague playoffs, where he shot 10-of-29 from the field over four games. While Doncic still found a way to help lead Real Madrid to a title, the strenuous season took a lot out of the teenager, and he battled hamstring injuries throughout.
Even after the draft, players who had spent time in the gym with Doncic were dubious. Doncic was part of a secret workout in August before his rookie year, one that also featured De'Aaron Fox, Frank Ntilikina, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Bell, Jayson Tatum, Collin Sexton, Kelsey Plum and Kelsey Mitchell. One person who was at the workout (while noting Doncic's jet lag and injury), said: "I just didn't see what the hype was about. Definitely didn't see the Luka that we see today. He was just very average."
In Europe, Doncic was never known as a practice gym rat, nor would he wow you physically. But he consistently beat opponents every which way when the lights were bright. The extended season, combined with Doncic's conditioning habits in Madrid, played a role in scouts not always seeing the best version of him. And with high-level executives really only getting eyes on him once or twice throughout the season, that was a major factor in where he landed on draft boards.
Underestimating size
People who didn't make it to Europe to see Doncic didn't quite realize how big he actually was.
Since Doncic didn't participate in the combine, teams didn't have official measurements for him. We compared him physically to the likes of Joe Johnson and Carmelo Anthony after the 2017 Eurobasket using the available data, but some NBA decision-makers thought he was closer to 6-foot-6.
Looking at Doncic through that lens, the concerns about his lack of shiftiness with the ball would be more warranted. But his size against real competition in Europe really stood out in person. His movement and handles at 6-8, 230 pounds is a major reason why he's able to thrive in the NBA
Euroleague and ACB context
Most young prospects -- even those selected in the lottery -- struggle to sniff a Euroleague rotation. Doncic was the best player on the best team before he turned 19.
Though NBA scouts and executives understand the quality of the ACB and Euroleague, perspective can get lost trying to account for competition level when comparing prospects.
"People don't understand how good the Euroleague and ACB are," one long-time scout for a Euroleague power said. "For a 6-8 guy who can run pick-and-roll and play iso at 18 years old with a packed paint and different coverages every game -- that's easy money."
Doncic wasn't just the product of a strong system, either. During 74 games with Real Madrid, he ran 331 pick-and-rolls, 131 isolations and was one of only five players in international basketball to use over 195 possessions with under four seconds on the shot clock. He was already a primary shot creator, and concerns about those skills translating -- including concerns I raised -- were overblown.
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Prospect Profile: Luka DoncicLuka Doncic could end up being the best player in this year's NBA draft.
How has Doncic improved?
Though Doncic was partially misevaluated and he found an ideal situation for his abilities in Dallas, he also has improved in important ways to reach this level of NBA stardom.
Body
Heading into his rookie season, Doncic was fresh off a grueling European season and summer vacation that wasn't preparing him physically for the NBA.
After first arriving to Dallas weighing close to 250 pounds, Doncic looks far leaner following a summer spent working on his body. I watched him live against the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, and he appears closer to the 228-pounder we saw shredding defenses at the 2017 Eurobasket.
Creating vs. athletes
That improved body, along with a tightened handle, helped Doncic answer the biggest question scouts had about him: Could he create efficient offense for himself against NBA-caliber athletes?
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In Europe, Doncic would occasionally pound the air out of the ball after switches only to end up with an off-balance step-back to his left. He didn't always have the most polished ways to break down a set defense.
On top of that, he was often at his best with other ball handlers next to him. Whether it was Goran Dragic with the Slovenian national team or Sergio Llull with Real Madrid, having another backcourt player around to alleviate pressure helped Doncic remain efficient.
Even Dragic wasn't sure of Doncic's best position long-term two years ago:
"[Doncic has] a great instinct to be a point guard, but there's the quickness factor," Dragic said in 2017.
Just like James Harden, though, Doncic has evolved into a primary creator without requiring help from a point guard. In January 2018, I was worried about Doncic's ability to handle ball pressure in the Euroleague. He regularly was forced to initiate offense with his back turned near half court. But now, in a league not known for aggressive ball pressure, he looks much more comfortable.
Doncic ranks third in the NBA in usage rate this season, and he is simply picking teams apart with his size and feel. With Real Madrid, Doncic ranked in the 43rd percentile in isolation efficiency, per Synergy Sports. He's now in the NBA's top 10 for isolations per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking. And he's sixth in efficiency among the 45 players with at least 50 isos, logging 1.12 points per play.
What has changed?
More space
The Euroleague is more physical than the NBA, with less space to operate. Not only is the 3-point line shorter, but there's no defensive three seconds rule, which allows bigs to stay put in the paint. Because Doncic is now surrounded with four shooters on an open court, he gets to his spots with ease. He ranks second in the NBA in total passes, per Second Spectrum, and that threat forces help defenders to make a tough choice between checking Doncic or staying home on their man.
Doncic's somewhat surprising success as an isolation scorer can be attributed to the reps he got playing against older players his entire basketball life. He understands angles, timing and defensive tendencies.
"He's seen a lot of this from a young age," one Mavericks coach said. "He plays at his own pace. That's what makes him so effective. He plays at the pace where you have to adjust to him."
Like Harden, whom Doncic studies closely, Doncic has cracked the offensive code with step-back 3s, on-target passes and physical rim attacks.
"Harden is a little longer, Luka is a little taller and heavier, but they are both more athletic for their size than they are given credit for," one NBA executive said. "The way the NBA game is officiated now makes him and Harden impossible to guard."
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Luka dishes no-look assist for Hardaway treyLuka Doncic drives into the lane and kicks a no-look pass out to Tim Hardaway Jr. who knocks down the 3-pointer.
Getting to the rim and finishing
Doncic is logging the fifth-most drives per game at 18.4, according to Second Spectrum. Among the 48 players with at least 10 drives per game, Doncic is by far the most efficient with 1.35 points per play.
Not only is Doncic getting all the way to the rim, he's also converting a ridiculous 77.4% of his shots once there while also dropping in 58.9% of his floaters. He has Eurosteps, slow-down finishes and functional size (even if he can still struggle with elite rim protectors like Anthony Davis).
Doncic relied a lot on short runners in the past and didn't consistently get to the basket. Now, 21% of his attempts are coming inside the restricted area, while he generates the third-most free throw attempts per game behind Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
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Luka drives the lane for powerful dunkLuka Doncic takes advantage of an open lane and hammers it down.
Step-back counters
Doncic's step-back to his left has quickly become one of the most devastating moves in the NBA. It's his most common shot type this season.
While last season's version was a little more elongated, Doncic has added more speed and punch, going from slow and relaxed to a pound dribble and leap back with acceleration. The key for Doncic lately has been adding more counters off that step-back, as teams are sitting on it regularly. He's still a work in progress, but we're starting to see some reliable secondary moves.
One is a left-to-right spin move. Right at the point when he would usually dart back to his left, Doncic is spinning off his leaning defender into the paint. He's also using a left-to-right, through-the-legs dribble to attack the forward foot of his primary defender. Doncic is able to generate a ton of force with these moves, and at his size, he's almost impossible to keep out of the paint.
He's still fine-tuning -- including a lefty hang-dribble attack after the step-back -- but the added counters have played a role in his incredible efficiency.
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Luka puts the moves on MelliLuka Doncic puts Nicolo Melli through the spin cycle as he drains the long two-point shot vs. the Pelicans.
Defense and rebounding
Doncic has actually been a slightly better defender than expected. Though he's not a lockdown guy, his feet and size have always been a bit underrated on that end. He certainly still takes plays off and gets burned by quick guards, but when the game is on the line, he locks in and avoids becoming a serious liability. Watching him bang with Anthony Davis on switches the other night helped reveal just how big and physical Doncic truly plays.
Doncic's NBA rebounding numbers -- 11.6 per 40 minutes -- have taken some scouts and executives by surprise, too. Although he's not a big box-out guy, he gravitates toward the ball and can immediately ignite the break, which is extremely valuable.
Competency in both of these areas has raised his value -- and MVP argument -- in a big way.
If Luka Doncic can improve his 3-point percentage, he might make himself virtually unguardable. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
What's next?
One popular pre-draft question surrounding Doncic was just how much better he'd be able to get in the NBA, given his mature physical profile and game. And to be fair, we still need to see how he'll manage when the deep step-backs aren't falling in a grueling playoff series as teams are throwing all types of defenders his way.
One NBA scout pointed to his splits against good teams vs. bad teams when arguing against Luka's MVP buzz. There's some merit there.
Doncic Splits Vs. Winning/Losing Teams
STAT UNDER .500 .500 OR BETTER
PPG 32.4 27.6
RPG 11.2 8.7
APG 9.7 8.9
eFG 60.1 48.9%
W-L 10-3 4-3
An NBA assistant coach also said that not every team is taking their game plans for shutting down Doncic seriously yet. The Suns recently guarded him with traditional drop coverages, which he picked apart on his way to 42 points, 9 rebounds and 11 assists. The Lakers blitzed Doncic in pick-and-roll for the better part of the first half, holding him to 2-for-9 shooting. But when they eased up the pressure, Doncic picked them apart. He didn't even need to beat his man off the dribble because he could deliver easy looks for teammates.
For Doncic to take yet another step, he'll need to become a more efficient 3-point shooter. Jumping from his 33% clip to somewhere in Harden's 36% range forces more pressure to defend his step-back. Combine that with polished counters and it will be game over -- he'll be unguardable.
It's also important for Doncic to become more impactful when he doesn't have the ball in his hands. How will he learn to play with other ball-dominant guys if Dallas adds more talent? And it's worth tracking how Doncic responds to adversity when it hits. His transition to the NBA has been pretty seamless, but he could lose his cool in tough moments in Europe. How will he handle those high-pressure situations when they inevitably come in Dallas? Still, Doncic often plays with a maturity beyond his years, easing most of those concerns.
There remains a wide range of opinions within the league in regard to Doncic's ultimate ceiling. Some see a long-time All-Star, while others gush about him as a potential all-time great. But this much is clear: Doncic has far surpassed anyone's expectations. He's a legitimate MVP candidate on one of the league's emerging teams.
As one NBA scout put it, "The only person that can stop Luka is Luka."
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