Let's talk about the long-term impact of this series win.... - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

LonghornDub · 04-29-2011, 12:56 AM

Before the matchups were set, Fluid suggested that playing and beating the Blazers could be a huge boost to the Mavs' psyche to help them get over, in particular, the Warriors, Hornets, and Nuggets losses (in which the Mavs were run over on the road by energetic, athletic teams). I thought he was onto something then, and now that this series has played out, I think it's worth discussing a bit more.

Here's what happened in this series. The Mavs didn't shoot well for the series. They didn't have a mega-dominant performance from Dirk (although he was great). They didn't have any #2 or #3 player play out of their minds. Their center was constantly in foul trouble. Their second center couldn't make free throws. Their guards are undersized and relatively unathletic. The opponent's guards are huge and athletic.

And they still won. In 6. Without one of their starters. Against a team who many, many people picked to win.

Not only that, but they won the 6th game in a place where teams rarely win, and they did so despite the game presenting a mirror image of a Game 4 that the Mavs had blown just a few days before.

Think about the similarities between tonight and game 6. Big lead near end of third? Check. Blazers mini-run to end third? Check. Run extends into 4th? Check. Mavs start turning the ball over carelessly in 4th? Check. Blazers hit several jumpshots in a row? Check. Blazers have 20 points less than halfway into the quarter? Check. Blazers crowd is seemingly carrying them to a huge comeback win? Check.

The Mavs saw this all before. They saw it Saturday. I saw it too, in person. It's incredible how a crowd's energy can pretty much get into the home team's bodies and will them to victory. Game 4 was the loudest basketball arena I have ever been inside, and I've been to some big, big basketball games.

It would have been really, really easy for the Mavs to lose this game tonight. They had a Game 7 at home, which they would have won. They'd blown a lead, just like Game 4, and it would have been easy to just check out, take the plane home and win it Saturday. But they didn't quit. In the span of about 1 minute, the Jasons took a crowd that was at 120dB and took them down to 90. Then the Mavs' defense took them down to about 80. Then Dirk's FT's took them down to 50. Exit stage left.

I dunno if these guys can beat the Lakers. I have no idea. They are good enough to compete, and if you're good enough to compete, you're good enough to win if the ball bounces your way. But I think fluid was right. This win exorcises a lot of demons. This is exactly the kind of series the Mavs lost in 07, 08, and 09. But they did it this time, and they did it despite not even playing all that well.

That's impressive. I'm looking forward to seeing what they can do next. What do you think?

xrobx · 04-29-2011, 01:03 AM

they basically won the series 5-1 if not for the game 4 fluke. perhaps a sweep in 6 if game 3 gets called properly. i've said all year that i just want to get out of the first round and i'm going to be satisfied no matter what, i just want to give the lakers a series. win at least a couple games and don't get swept. if we come up short, there's no shame...

chumdawg · 04-29-2011, 01:10 AM

I am also looking forward to seeing what they do next, but I don't subscribe to the point of view that they exorcised demons in this round. Rather, I think they just dismissed with a lesser team.

I don't put much stock into exorcising demons, any more than I put stock in the game-to-game momentum theory. I think every year is a tournament all its own. If the next round in this tournament is as easy as the Trailblazers were, I'm sure we will advance without difficulty.

Of course, I expect the next round to be more difficult than the Blazers were. But I see no reason to expect us to lose.

Rick41 · 04-29-2011, 01:10 AM

The main factor that comes into this year going against years in the past is our defense.

Absolutely hands down our defense is the reason we won this series.

Well disciplined, great overall movement, great help, Tyson having that monster rebounding game in game 5, all attributed to our win.

The defense wasn't just at this level in years past.

LonghornDub · 04-29-2011, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chumdawg

I am also looking forward to seeing what they do next, but I don't subscribe to the point of view that they exorcised demons in this round. Rather, I think they just dismissed with a lesser team.

I don't put much stock into exorcising demons, any more than I put stock in the game-to-game momentum theory. I think every year is a tournament all its own. If the next round in this tournament is as easy as the Trailblazers were, I'm sure we will advance without difficulty.

Of course, I expect the next round to be more difficult than the Blazers were. But I see no reason to expect us to lose.

Point taken, but I don't think "dismissing a lesser team" precludes exorcising demons. Some of these demons came around in the first place because of problems with dismissing lesser teams. In fact, I'm not sure people would talk about the Mavs they way they do/did if the Mavs had only been losing to superior teams the past several years.

xrobx · 04-29-2011, 01:16 AM

keep in mind some experts picked this lesser team to sweep us, and the majority picked said lesser team to win the series.

BGMaverick9 · 04-29-2011, 01:20 AM

I'll take Jason Terry at his word. He said after Game 82 that it was all about getting out of the first round. If they could do that, their confidence would be sky high.

Closing out a series on the road after building it up in their mind (rightfully so) that the Rose Garden was an incredibly tough place to play is an incredible confidence booster.

chumdawg · 04-29-2011, 01:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Point taken, but I don't think "dismissing a lesser team" precludes exorcising demons. Some of these demons came around in the first place because of problems with dismissing lesser teams. In fact, I'm not sure people would talk about the Mavs they way they do/did if the Mavs had only been losing to superior teams the past several years.

The Spurs are fighting some demons of their own right now, and it's not because of any deficiencies the Spurs have. The West is just that good. And the Spurs are just that unlucky. (And I think that I do, genuinely, hope that they make it through.)

I don't see any long-term benefit from winning a first-round series for the Mavs, outside of them winning that first-round series. I don't think the present players care about what happened before.

The long-term benefit comes from winning the next series...and...

LonghornDub · 04-29-2011, 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chumdawg

The Spurs are fighting some demons of their own right now, and it's not because of any deficiencies the Spurs have. The West is just that good. And the Spurs are just that unlucky. (And I think that I do, genuinely, hope that they make it through.)

I don't see any long-term benefit from winning a first-round series for the Mavs, outside of them winning that first-round series. I don't think the present players care about what happened before.

The long-term benefit comes from winning the next series...and...

Sure sounds like Terry cares. See above.

I bet Dirk does, too. Can't speak for the newer guys.

j0Shi · 04-29-2011, 01:43 AM

They've dominated this series. Plain and simple. That's encouraging. I doubt that the face of the Mavericks in the media has changed though. There was Game 4 and despite the fact that this really wasn't the only smudge in the series it will linger.

chumdawg · 04-29-2011, 01:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Sure sounds like Terry cares. See above.

I bet Dirk does, too. Can't speak for the newer guys.

Meh. I'm sure it satisfies them in some way, to have gone further than they did the last time. But I highly doubt that said going-further gives them a spike in the pants. It's all about going rounds, and getting to the finals.

LonghornDub · 04-29-2011, 01:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Meh. I'm sure it satisfies them in some way, to have gone further than they did the last time. But I highly doubt that said going-further gives them a spike in the pants. It's all about going rounds, and getting to the finals.

To the extent you're saying the goals are much, much higher...I agree.

chumdawg · 04-29-2011, 01:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

To the extent you're saying the goals are much, much higher...I agree.

So in other words, we are saying that winning this series, and getting to the second round, strikes these guys as not at all unlike where they are supposed to be?

OneLove22 · 04-29-2011, 02:16 AM

We're going to beat LA.

Mavsfan4ever · 04-29-2011, 02:27 AM

I read else where someone saying we have the best defense in this years playoffs. Giving defense is what wins championships how do you guys feel we match up with LA on the defensive end of the court?

I do think we have a much improved defense over last year and that has boosted our boy's confidence.

fluid.forty.one · 04-29-2011, 03:03 AM

I don't know about you guys, but that didn't look like the scared Mavs from 2007 to me. I definitely think this series did wonders for our psyche, regardless of if we beat the Lakers or not.

By the way, I mentioned this in the PGT but I met one of the Mavs flight attendants tonight and we talked for a long time... she said the Mavs, especially the older ones, are obsessed with stats (like the 2-18 road stat.. not their individual ones). I absolutely think they buy into the "we cant do ____ because of _____" assumption, so I don't think JET is just spewing BS there. I think winning this game in this fashion at this location will do wonders for their confidence moving forward.

LonghornDub · 04-29-2011, 03:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

I don't know about you guys, but that didn't look like the scared Mavs from 2007 to me.

I forgot to mention something else. This team twice got down huge in the first 6-7 minutes of a game in Portland, and came right back to take the lead in the second quarter. Anybody remember what happened when the Mavs got down big against the Hornets in Game 2? Or the Warriors in Game 3? Or the Nuggets in Game 5?

They folded. Not this team, though. They came back strong, immediately.

mavs777 · 04-29-2011, 03:22 AM

How have the Spurs been unlucky? Memphis has dominated that series and looked like a better team throughout. Rebounding and defense is huge come playoff time, Spurs were mediocre in both categories during the regular season

PartywithDirk · 04-29-2011, 07:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mavs777

How have the Spurs been unlucky? Memphis has dominated that series and looked like a better team throughout. Rebounding and defense is huge come playoff time, Spurs were mediocre in both categories during the regular season

Unlucky they had to play Memphis, maybe!

dalger · 04-29-2011, 02:02 PM

Hmm. I understand the idea that showing "demons" your backside can be a valuable experience for a team and build confidence in the process. However, I'm not sure how much of a factor this is for the current Mavs team.

When you compare the 2007 Mavs with the 2011 Mavs, there aren't a whole lot of similarities. With the exception of Dirk and Jet, this is a completely different team. There are even considerable differences between the current team and the team that lost to the Nuggets two years ago. Tyson, Haywood, Marion, Caron, Stevenson and Peja have all been with this team for less than two years. Damp, Diop, Gooden, Bass, Josh, Stack and Wright have all left since then.

Assuming that a certain mental disposition is largely dependent on the personnel rather than the organisation and its particular history, I'm not sure that playoff woes of the past have a huge impact on our current team and influence our ability to be successful or not. Most guys weren't there when those demons were unintentionally created, which is why I don't think they're affected by them in a meaningful way.

Instead, I'm inclined to consider chumdawg's game-to-game momentum theory as more relevant to the outcome of a Mavs playoff series in 2011. When it comes to the next round against the Lakers, I'm pretty sure the fact that we closed out the series against the Blazers on the road in a close game is more important to our team's confidence and momentum than the fact that we were finally able to beat a team of a certain kind and get rid off supposed demons.

One could also argue that the Golden State series was the only one that we clearly should have won. The same can't be said about 2008 and 2009, and even last year's series against the Spurs had enough variables to not consider our loss a huge surprise or the result of lingering demons in our collective psyche.

Kidd Karma · 04-29-2011, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rick41

The main factor that comes into this year going against years in the past is our defense.

Absolutely hands down our defense is the reason we won this series.

Well disciplined, great overall movement, great help, Tyson having that monster rebounding game in game 5, all attributed to our win.

The defense wasn't just at this level in years past.

Yep, how many times did we allow 100? Tyson is huge for us, not only playing goalie defensively, but being our free safety, the QB of our defense, screaming at teammates at what's coming.

BGMaverick9 · 04-29-2011, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

Yep, how many times did we allow 100? Tyson is huge for us, not only playing goalie defensively, but being our free safety, the QB of our defense, screaming at teammates at what's coming.

Twenty-eight opponents scored 100 points against Dallas in 2010-11. Dallas was 16-12 in those games.

Kidd Karma · 04-29-2011, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavsfan4ever

I read else where someone saying we have the best defense in this years playoffs. Giving defense is what wins championships how do you guys feel we match up with LA on the defensive end of the court?

I do think we have a much improved defense over last year and that has boosted our boy's confidence.

Eh, we have the best defense, I'd throw Chi Town right up there with us. Boston lost a huge piece with Perkins, have had to make do with O'Neal, Krstic, Baby, but Green on the wings is huge for them, allows Allen/Pierce to maiintain some gas in the 4th. I think we have better team defense, they have better individual defenders in Kobe/Ronnie.

Kidd Karma · 04-29-2011, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I forgot to mention something else. This team twice got down huge in the first 6-7 minutes of a game in Portland, and came right back to take the lead in the second quarter. Anybody remember what happened when the Mavs got down big against the Hornets in Game 2? Or the Warriors in Game 3? Or the Nuggets in Game 5?

They folded. Not this team, though. They came back strong, immediately.

Defense, they walked and talked their way through defensively, communication is huge for us this year.

sike · 04-29-2011, 03:36 PM

I think its almost undeniable that this team is tougher both mentally and physically than certain past Mavs squads...and I'm sure, to some degree, that helped close out the Blazers in 6 in the Rose Garden.

This next opponent is such a different animal.

We're about to find out how THIS Mavs squad responds to the role of underdog.

I tend to think that Dirk, Kidd, and Chandler will like it just fine.

BGMaverick9 · 04-29-2011, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sike

actual words

whoa...

Kidd Karma · 04-29-2011, 03:41 PM

Like Kidd said, just keep it close and he likes our chances in the last 5 minutes. We hav one of the best closer in the game today in Dirk, a 2nd option in Jet.

Usually Lurkin · 04-29-2011, 03:58 PM

I think the long term impact of this post season will result from 2nd round performance. The impact of a win over the Trailblazers is as negligible as was the last time we made it to the second round. Less, probably, because it will be easy for everyone to forget that the Blazers were so overrated going into the series. Everyone will suddenly remember that the Blazers have done worse in the last decade of playoffs than the Mavs have.

In the short term, however, it's got to boost their energy and confidence. Whether the boost is strong enough or long enough to impact a series against the Lakers is a different question.

LonghornDub · 04-29-2011, 04:35 PM

Quote:

"These guys have been here a long time," Carlisle said specifically of Nowitzki and Terry, two of the close-out heroes in Dallas' Game 6 in Portland, which allows the Mavs to move beyond the second round for just the second time since '06. "It is so meaningful for them both to help us move on right now. They've both been hearing about it a long time, as we all have."

....yeah, definitely negligible. Clearly.

JeffViggiano · 04-30-2011, 05:49 AM

we maked all for lost pur preview serie,but anyway we win in 6.impressive.i like our defence,i hope that carlisle forget 3guard lineups...only this.

Usually Lurkin · 04-30-2011, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

....yeah, definitely negligible. Clearly.

you know what's not clear? How well a statement made a right after the game by an involved coach assesses long term impact.

Murphy3 · 04-30-2011, 09:20 AM

You know, another first round exit would have been rather devastating. I cannot imagine that the team wouldn't have had widespread changes to the roster if at all possible. This would have been an absolutely devastating 1st round loss especially considering the large blown lead that I'd rather not think about. To argue otherwise is just silly in my opinion.

Usually Lurkin · 04-30-2011, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

You know, another first round exit would have been rather devastating. I cannot imagine that the team wouldn't have had widespread changes to the roster if at all possible. This would have been an absolutely devastating 1st round loss especially considering the large blown lead that I'd rather not think about. To argue otherwise is just silly in my opinion.

That's true. If we get swept in the second round, though, then the same players are answering the same questions next year.

And if the sweeping is in a ridiculous fashion, then we might be facing the same sort of devastation you describe.

If we win the second round, then nobody mentions the early exits for a while.

Murphy3 · 04-30-2011, 10:37 AM

Absolutely... I can agree that if the team plays horrific basketball in the second round that alot of the accomplishment of making it out of the 1st round will be washed away. However, I do not believe that they'll play horrific basketball in the second round. I think that this team is tougher mentally than that.

Usually Lurkin · 04-30-2011, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Absolutely... I can agree that if the team plays horrific basketball in the second round that alot of the accomplishment of making it out of the 1st round will be washed away. However, I do not believe that they'll play horrific basketball in the second round. I think that this team is tougher mentally than that.

I think so, too. Let's see them prove us right.

dalger · 04-30-2011, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

You know, another first round exit would have been rather devastating. I cannot imagine that the team wouldn't have had widespread changes to the roster if at all possible. This would have been an absolutely devastating 1st round loss especially considering the large blown lead that I'd rather not think about. To argue otherwise is just silly in my opinion.

I agree with that as well. In that instance, we would have failed and the same players would have been questioned again and again about their failure and that of former Mavericks teams, like UL pointed out in his post.

Now that we've made it out of the 1st round in rather convincing fashion, I don't believe that a 2nd round defeat against the Lakers without a proven player like Caron would kill our confidence and ability to play successful basketball for years to come.

ShaggyDirk · 04-30-2011, 12:02 PM

wrong thread

LonghornDub · 04-30-2011, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

you know what's not clear? How well a statement made a right after the game by an involved coach assesses long term impact.

You're right. Carlisle is prone to emotionally induced statements lacking in calculated, rational thought. He's the kind of guy who gives cool soundbites without thinking through the veracity of his answers. That's his bag.

You're gonna have to come up with something better than that.

Not to mention your complete failure to address Terry's making the same statements before the playoffs even started. I'm sure that was probably some heat-of-the-moment thing too, though, right? If the evidence is against you, may as well ignore it!

Usually Lurkin · 04-30-2011, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Not to mention your complete failure to address Terry's making the same statements before the playoffs even started. I'm sure that was probably some heat-of-the-moment thing too, though, right? If the evidence is against you, may as well ignore it!

what evidence? You asked about long term impact. There is no evidence of longterm impact in the short term, let alone the pre-term. If you meant what short term impact is there from winning the series, you should have asked that, and you can read my post where I addressed it. If you meant what long term impact do we think the players and coach think is involved, you should have asked that. If you meant to discuss the long term impact that we think there will be, well, you should have asked exactly what you asked, and you should quit confusing the issue.

LonghornDub · 04-30-2011, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

you should quit confusing the issue.

There is such a tasty irony in you ending that post with this sentence.

The issue is crystal clear. Pretty much everyone who has posted in this thread has correctly focused their talking points on the issue, whether they've disagreed or agreed with my original thoughts, which are certainly up for reasonable debate. Chum, for example, presented a fairly compelling argument against my original post (which, of course, I disagreed with, but it was articulate and compelling nonetheless). You on the other hand presented rhetorical gibberish (and no, I didn't put that tag on this thread, but rest assured it's 100% apt).