Rangers Minor League Pitching Prospects.....great read

[Drbio]

For those of you who subscribe to the free Newberg Report, this will be in your email box. For those of you who don't...shame on you. Enjoy the read and go to the Newberg Report and subscribe for free.

The following analyses are good.....damn good. Many props to M.J. Hindman for his work.

2004 Texas Rangers Top 10 Starting Pitching Prospects

#1) Juan Dominguez:

Notes: Forget the age-gate issue, this guy, at 23 (instead of 21), is still an astonishing revelation. His dominance at AA and AAA effectively eviscerated any argument that his man-handling of the High A Cal League was merely due to his age advantage (though even at 23, his advantage, if any, was not substantial). Dominguez possesses what is probably the most dominating pitch in the system, a change that often seems to defy principles of space and time. His fastball is good and especially so when he keeps it down. Though many pin his perceived limitations on the weakness of his slider as a third pitch, I actually believe that he could get by with it as long as he keeps his fastball low in the zone, which he does exceptionally well when he is on his game and which he fails to do when he gets tired. Nonetheless, the development of Dominguez’s slider will be among the most watched and analyzed things coming out of Spring Training 2004. It is not at all unusual for great young pitchers to hit the wall at AAA (see Cleveland's ballyhooed Stanford product Jeremy Guthrie who hit the wall in Buffalo after dominating in AA last summer) as they race up the ladder. Dominguez didn't find his ceiling until the sixth inning of his major league career. He’s the real deal.

2004 Season Projection: Dominguez is certain to begin the season at the front of the Oklahoma rotation and is the likely choice to fill the void when the annual, obligatory, and mysterious Chan Ho Park injury occurs...probably by May.


#2) John Danks:

Notes: Pre-draft reports of a nearly unhittable 12-to-6'er were confirmed in John Danks' brief run through the AZL. In five appearances, Danks pitched 13 innings and gave up only one earned run on six hits. According to scouting reports, Danks showed an impressive ability to mix his pitches and change speeds effectively. The 18 year old fanned 22 batters while walking only four. Scouts also confirmed his 92-94 mph cheese and praised his poise. All of this in a lefty who is a good enough baseball player that he probably would have been drafted in the top 15 rounds as an outfielder.

2004 Season Projection: About two weeks ago, Grady Fuson hinted to the faithful at the Clinton LumberKings Hot Stove Banquet that they will get the chance to enjoy watching Danks this spring, where he will work with new L-Kings pitching coach Stan Hilton. Though the Rangers have made it clear that they are willing to move youngsters up the ladder quickly if they think it is warranted, expect Danks to be in Clinton nearly all summer, even if he makes a mockery of the league from beginning to end. He could get a late season look in Stockton, if only because they want him to have an opportunity to work with Andy Hawkins for a while.


#3) Ben Kozlowski:

Notes: The rate of successful recoveries from Tommy John surgery is so high, that Kozlowski's trip to the operating table just barely dents his otherwise rock-solid prospect status. The single most exciting prospect to emerge in the 2003 season (yes, I know who else was in that group) has not only the stuff, but the demeanor to make a name for himself in a big league rotation. It wasn't easy getting any information out of the fall instructional camp, but the few messages I received invariably made mention of Ben Kozlowski's impressive work ethic, commitment and progress in his comeback from Tommy John surgery last summer. Nonetheless, it is certain that Kozlowski will not be ready to go at the beginning of the season.

2004 Season Projection: It is not out of the realm of possibility that his 2004 season will look a lot like Nick Regilio's 2003 season, laying low until late July, showing up in an AZL box score or two and then returning to Frisco for a couple of starts before getting an Arizona Fall League assignment.



#4) Wes Littleton:

Notes: The morning after day one of the 2003 draft, I wrote that Littleton was my early pick to be the first from his draft class to see Arlington. I will reassert that position right now. Littleton's deceptive delivery and heavy, late movement figured to be even more effective against wood bats than against aluminum, and it was. Littleton was desperately in need of a fresh start after an awkward finish to an otherwise brilliant collegiate career, and he showed the maturity and resolve to make the most of the opportunity. He was the second most dominant pitcher in the NWL (next to Seattle's 17 year old freak show named Felix Hernandez) and scouts in the Northwest were as likely to be captivated by his demeanor as his electric stuff.

2004 Season Projection: Conventional wisdom says that Littleton will skip Clinton and start the season in Stockton. Probably correct, but don't be shocked if he breaks with the Riders. I still believe that he'll see Arlington this summer. At the very least, Littleton should be a brilliant setup man and he could end up a top notch closer. But until he proves he can't make it as a starter--and that day may never come--the Rangers will give him every opportunity to nail down a spot in the big league rotation.


#5) John Hudgins:

Notes: Here he is: the poster boy for “pitchability.” As the College World Series unfolded last June, I went from smiling, to giggling to jumping for joy as I began to realize that the Texas Rangers had lifted a Greg Maddux clone out of the 2003 draft. And then I got sick as I realized that no human being can possibly withstand the abuse that Hudgins was being subjected to. In his first start against South Carolina, Hudgins threw 84 pitches in eight shutout innings during which he looked like a magician in a roomful of dupes. Then he won two more games, becoming the first pitcher to ever win three in one CWS. During an incredible ten days in Omaha, Hudgins threw 350 pitches, 225 of which were strikes, over 24 innings as he posted a 3-0 record and struck out 15 batters. The knock on Hudgins is that he lacks the stuff to make it all the way and, prior to his final season at Stanford, his strikeout-to-walk ratios were ordinary at best (50/27 in 2001, 62/35 in 2002), but in 2003, Hudgins fanned 143 while walking only 35. Hudgins made only one appearance as a professional last summer, tossing two hitless, shutout frames in Clinton, fanning four and walking one before the decision was made to shut him down for the year. It was discovered that Hudgins had a pinched nerve in his shoulder that was causing him discomfort, but he recently proclaimed himself completely healthy in a recent Newberg Report chat session and expects to break camp in someone’s rotation.

2004 Season Projection: Assuming that he really is healthy to start the season, it’s hard to say whether Hudgins will end up in Clinton or Stockton and its equally hard to say where he will finish the season. I would be disappointed if he started and ended in Clinton. My hope is that he starts in Stockton and ends in OKC, but it’s a better bet that he’ll finish the 2004 season a RoughRider.

[Drbio]

#6 Erik Thompson:

Notes: Throughout last summer, I would get e-mails from fans, scouts, parents, etc. with game reports. Fairly early on, I noticed that anyone who had seen Erik Thompson pitch was almost invariably moved to send me a note saying something like "this guy really knows how to pitch..." or, "he really seems to have a plan out there." The notion that Thompson has the ability to locate at will is borne out by his 50 / 4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his 2002 rookie season, his 52 / 5 ratio in Clinton last year and his 62 / 13 ratio in Stockton where the Cal League hit .242 against the right hander. You add that sort of control, and an intelligent, advanced approach to 95 mph cheese and a respectable change of speed, and you have a pitcher that kids in A ball will struggle with. Which, of course, they did. As Jamey has pointed out more than once or twice, if this same pitcher is 6'2" instead of 5'10", he’s on every major prospect list in the country.

2004 Season Projection: After quietly emerging as a super-stud in the MWL and earning a promotion to the Cal League, Thompson's stint in high A was so dominant (especially in the playoffs) that it seems unnecessary for him to return to Stockton. He should earn a spot in the Frisco rotation to begin the season and will probably see the sun set on the Brick by the end of the summer.


#7) Kameron Loe:

Notes: The excitement over big Kam Loe which lasted all summer seems to have crested as we move away from reading his box scores every four or five days. Scouts don't like this kid all that much, and so as the winter rolls along, all of the knocks on his ostensible lack of tools tend to eclipse his performance...which is unimpeachable. For a guy with no stuff, it's pretty amazing that he averaged just about one strikeout per inning between two levels last year, don't you think? Loe led the system with a 1.37 ERA and the Cal League hit a measly .183 against him.

2004 Projection: He'll start off the season in the Frisco rotation where everyone will once again tell us how he has no stuff. Meanwhile, he'll continue to mystify hitters. Eventually, someone will relent and promote him to OKC.


#8) Josh Rupe:

Notes: This guy pounds the strike zone with confidence: “You can’t give a hitter too much credit,” said Rupe in a BA interview last season. “You just go after them. If your stuff is on, you’re going to beat them.” Rupe features an above-average fastball with a hammer of a curveball (called “the best breaking ball I’ve seen from a young kid in a long time” by his Appy League manager Nick Leyva who went on to praise Rupe’s makeup). Most of the time, Rupe is simply overwhelming. Every once in awhile, however, he seems to leave his magic in the clubhouse and suffers through not just an off day, but an absolutely LaLooshian meltdown. This doesn’t happen often, but when things go bad for Rupe they go really bad (such as his first start of the year, a 1.2-inning, 10-run horror show, and a late August meltdown in Lansing that can probably be blamed on a hailstorm delay). Ah, kids.... Maturity will probably lead to an elimination of such breakdowns.

2004 Season Projection: When Rupe came to Clinton and met Andy Hawkins, he became a much better pitcher, primarily by cutting way back on his walks. I project that he’ll pick back up with Hawk in Stockton and will spend the whole season in the Cal League, but I wouldn't’t be shocked if he forces his way up to Frisco at some point.


#9) A.J. “Pirate” Murray

Notes: On one hand, there is nothing terribly flashy about Murray that stands out. A good change, but certainly not on the level of Dominguez. He’s got some sink on his fastball and a respectable slider, but none qualify as “plus plus” as far as I know. His control can be problematic from time to time and his strikeout-to-walk ratio (90 / 63) is flat out awful. But then you stop and realize that in a league which featured an amazing number of prime pitching prospects (Travis Blackley, Chin Hui Tsao, Zack Greinke, Juan Dominguez, Clint Nageotte, Bobby Jenks, Jimmy Gobble, Bobby Madritsch, Cha Baek, Ervin Santana, Greg Aquino, Rett Johnson, etc.) Murray had the league’s seventh best ERA (3.63)...at 21 years of age! Murray’s walks themselves weren’t out of line with what others with similar innings pitched did, but his low K rates are a concern. Murray is widely regarded as a bulldog with a thirst for knowledge, typically sidling up along side pitching coach Steve Luebber to expand his knowledge when not on the mound last summer.

2004 Season Projection: Murray's wins and ERA simply make no sense when you look at some of his other numbers and it almost seems like it must have been a fluke that he did so well. But alas, he did. So even though he’ll only be 22 this year, Murray will probably not have another go-round in Frisco, given his 2003, season-long consistency in the Texas League. He should spend the entire season in the Oklahoma rotation where he’ll have to cut down on free passes walks and somehow miss more bats to be as effective as he was last season in Frisco.


#10 Ryan Snare:

Notes: In spite of his small stature (5'11", 185-pounds), Snare–known for his fierce competitiveness– was nabbed by the Reds in the second round with the 63rd overall selection in the 2000 draft, but he did not pitch until 2001. His professional career has been solid. In 2001, he rolled through the MWL with a record of 9-5 in 20 starts, posting a 3.05 ERA with a 118 / 37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 115 innings of work. In 2002, he started off 8-2, 3.07 with an 81-18 strikeout-walk ratio in 82 innings as a starter in High A with Stockton (then a Reds affiliate) and finished with AA Portland where he went 4-2, 3.44 in 55 innings, fanning 52 and walking 19. Snare features a hammer of a bender as his top pitch, followed by a respectable fastball that consistently hits the low-90s. Snare is not an intimidating physical presence, but he thinks he is. In a review of published stories about this guy, one quickly recognizes that Snare’s, umm, “aggressiveness” is a dominant theme that reporters, coaches and opponents never fail to mention.

2004 Season Projection: Snare was a frustratingly up and down in OKC after he was acquired from Florida in the Urbina deal. His low number of strikeouts (28 in 55 frames) was very disconcerting. When Snare was acquired last summer, there were plenty of writers who speculated with some degree of certainty (and objectively good reason at the time) that he'd see Arlington by the end of 2003, but his struggles in the PCL last year arguably raise concerns that he never will find his way into the Rangers rotation. This is probably a make-it-or-break-it season for the 26 year old Snare. He is certain to return to the Brick where we will soon learn whether his struggles last season mean he's hit his ceiling.


#11 C.J. Wilson

Notes: He's a baseball player. Not something you necessarily expect from a lefty starter, but Wilson might just as well have been drafted as an outfielder had he not been left-handed. His final college season on the mound at Loyola Marymount was horrible, but Doug Melvin grabbed him in his final draft (2001) nonetheless and Wilson was immediately dazzling on the pro mound. After a brief stop off in Pulaski, he was sent to Savannah and never hit a road bump, finishing the season with 71.2 innings of work, holding batters to a .213 average and fanning 75 while walking only 18. He was even better in 2002, where he held the GCL to a .215 average before receiving a late-season promotion to Tulsa where he held the Texas League to a .211 average through five regular season starts. When Wilson opened the 2003 season in Frisco one might have figured it to be a short stint with Oklahoma City the real plan for the season, merely to reinforce what he seemed to have proven in late 2002, but things never got on track for him. His regression was both worrisome and curious. Eventually, the explanation came: he'd been pitching with a torn tendon in his elbow. Wilson had late season surgery and will make it back very late this year, if at all. Notwithstanding the setback, the fact remains that Wilson, who throws a heavy 90ish fastball, a very good change and a still slurvy breaking pitch, has already proven himself to be capable of lording over the Texas League with his 2002 performance and his 2003 struggles can be chalked up to pitching injured. He remains a legitimate prospect and, as in the case of Kozlowski, my enthusiasm over his future is only slightly deterred by his trip to the O.R.
2004 Season Projection: By all accounts (well, the ones I've heard anyway) Wilson's rehab is considerably behind Kozlowski's, who went under the knife about two months before Wilson did. He might not appear anywhere this season and if he does, I would expect a few cameos in Arizona with the little Rangers. He was earmarked for a 2003 AFL slot and could conceivably get it in 2004.



#12 Edwin Moreno

Notes: The righty entered the 2003 season at age 22 coming off of a brief but impressive 2002 stint in the GCL, where he was 3-0 with an 0.59 ERA in six starts, spanning 30.2 frames, fanning 23 and walking only three, but through 18 innings as a reliever in Frisco at the start of the 2003 season, Edwin Moreno's career as a professional baseball player appeared as though it might have been limping towards a cliff. He had surrendered 26 hits and walked ten with an ERA of 5.30. And then, for some reason, the RoughRiders' brain trust of Tim Ireland and Steve Luebber made the decision to give him a start when they lost Tony Mounce to OKC. And then they gave Moreno another start. And then another. And just like that, Moreno was on the map. He finished 6-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 112 frames, fanning 74 and walking 33, before being shut down in mid-August with shoulder soreness. Ireland called him the most improved player in the Texas League and the Rangers added him to the 40 man roster in December.
2004 Season Projection: Moreno is clearly on the Rangers in-house map right now and I suspect that they very clearly see him as a starter at this point. He could return to Frisco, but it is probably a better bet that he will be part of an OKC rotation that includes Juan Dominguez, Nick Regilio and A.J. Murray as well as a couple of AAAA guys like Ryan Drese and John Wasdin, etc.


#13 Nick Regilio

Notes: A hard throwing right-hander, Regilio was a member of the "Four Aces" (along with Colby Lewis, Ryan Dittfurth and Aaron Harang) who made such a splash at Pulaski in 1999, going 4-2, 1.63 and holding the Appalachian League to a .172 average, striking out 58 in 49.2 frames while issuing just 16 walks. After suffering a bad year at Charlotte in 2000, he bounced back in 2001 to dominate the FSL, going 6-2 with a 1.55 ERA (including a no-hitter) before a promotion to Tulsa, where he struggled a bit. In 2002, he fought a season-long bout with biceps tendentious and shoulder soreness, but had a very good year in Tulsa nonetheless, going 6-8 with a 3.44 ERA in 104 and two-thirds. At one point in the season, Regilio had a 6-5 record, 2.50 ERA and four consecutive wins, but then the soreness set in and he was shut down. He was ultimately found to have suffered a partial tear of his rotator cuff, which required off-season surgery. On August 8, 2003, having completed the club's 12 week throwing program, Regilio returned to action the AZL, throwing five scoreless innings before suffering a groin pull sidelined him once again. He joined the Riders late in the season, appearing just once before he showed up in the AFL (taking C.J. Wilson's slot) where he was damn good. One poor start late in the AFL season hurt his overall numbers, but through his first 16.1 frames, he had a 3.31 ERA, ranking among the league leaders. One published report had him throwing 97 mph in Peoria. The organization says it was more like 95, but in any case, he appears to be back on track.
2004 Season Projection: It goes without saying that this is a huge year for the gifted Regilio. I project him in the RedHawks rotation where the concern will be his stamina. He has the stuff to succeed in the PCL, but whether or not his body can withstand going deep into games every five days for months on end remains a serious question that has to be answered before he can be subjected to big league hitters.



#14 Sam Narron

Notes: People will likely think of two things when they hear of Sam Narron: (1) Family Ties (He's Jerry Narron's second cousin and his grandfather, also Sam, was briefly a player for the Cardinals who later became Sandy Koufax's bullpen catcher); and (2) he had his face rearranged by a comebacker last summer. These bits of trivia should never cloud our understanding that the kid is: (1) a damn fine pitcher (10-4 with a 3.48 ERA, 75 K's & 19 walks in 104 frames for Stockton last year); (2) smart as a whip (graduating magna cum laude with a 3.647 GPA in Biology at East Carolina is far more impressive than the 2.67 ERA he had in his final year); (3) funny as they come (his retort to a reporter who asked if he had any fear when he returned to the mound last summer after missing time with a broken jaw and teeth caused by a May comebacker was "What do you expect me to do? Lay down on the mound, curl up, and suck my thumb?"); and--of course (4) one tough SOB.
2004 Season Projection: Narron is one of far too many pitchers who figures to fit with Frisco at the beginning of the season. One could hardly argue with any of the following starting the season in the RoughRiders rotation: Murray, Regilio, Echols, Moreno, Andrew, Narron, Loe, Thompson.... You get the picture. Dominant pitchers on Stockton clubs put together ERA's around 2.50-3.00, so Narron's nice 3.48 was very good, but well short of dominant. A month or two more there might be in order. Neither assignment would surprise me a bit.



#15 Jose Garcia

Notes: The new kid on the block is not a particularly hard thrower and his strikeout numbers are not exceptional. He succeeds by pounding the zone with four pitches which he mixes well, making him tough to hit, as his .223 BAA in the MWL last year indicates. The Yankees signed him out of Venezuela in February 1999, and he spent three seasons at the academy level in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic before earning his 2003 assignment to Battle Creek where his 2.64 ERA was ninth in the league when he was promoted to the FSL late in the season. The most discouraging number from his MWL season is the 10 dingers he allowed which, interestingly, were the only homers he has allowed since he began playing professional baseball. His four start stint in Florida was very impressive: a 1.74 ERA in 20.2 frames, fanning 14 and walking four. The FSL hit just .173 against him.
2004 Season Projection: He figures to start off in Stockton's 8-man rotation where he'll the pitching paradise that is Billy Hebert field will give him every opportunity to build an impressive ERA.



#16 Matt Lorenzo

Notes: This placement is somewhat arbitrary. The Matts (Lorenzo and Farnum) were almost impossible to separate from my vantage point, but I've heard that the organization is a little higher on Lorenzo, so he gets the edge between the two. Both Matts were fabulous in Spokane where the colossal presence of Wes Littleton allowed both to fly under the radar. A big kid at 6'3", 208- pounds, Lorenzo saw the velocity on his heater improve from 87-90 mph to 90-92 with a high of 95 in his final year of college ball at Kent State and eleveated him into the national top-150 before draft day. Scouts also credited him with improved pitchability before the draft. He shows good command of an 83-84 mph slider and a decent change. His curve is his fourth and worst pitch. Lorenzo averaged more than a strikeout an inning while going 6-5, 3.64 at Kent and then in Spokane, he went 5-1, 2.53, fanning 54 in 57 frames and issuing 22 walks and the NWL managed just two dingers against him.
2004 Season Projection: The 21 year old Lorenzo, who came out after his junior year, figures to fit in the Clinton rotation and could see Stockton at some point.



#17 Matt Farnum

Notes: Like John Hudgins, Ben Keiter and Marc LaMacchia, Farnum came to the Rangers having already demonstrated success against wood bats in the Cape Cod League, going 4-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 48Ks in 49 innings of CCL play. Farnum allegedly lacks the stuff and pure ability of Lorenzo, but he did a nice job of pounding the zone last year and he keeps the ball in the yard. During his final season at Texas A&M, he did not surrender a single dinger in 43 frames and then he gave up just two in 75.1 NWL innings. Farnum, a fastball / slider / change guy who was an 11thround selection of the Blue Jays in 2002 (turning down second / third round money) basically averaged a K per IP in college, but just had just 57 in 75.1 pro innings while walking only 17 in a 5- 1, 2.39 debut that included one streak of more than 20 scoreless innings. Before the 2003 draft, Farnum was criticized for not bringing his stuff to the mound every game (who does?), but in Spokane, he seemed to have done a nice job even on nights when his stuff was flat. After one game in early August near the end of his scoreless streak, Farnum told a reporter "There was no stuff tonight. You realize it when you're getting ready down in the bullpen. Before I realized how to deal with that stuff I would just try to continue power pitching and get lit up pretty well. But I think I've had a couple of outings in my life where I've gotten lit up where I've learned how to pitch without my good stuff. Anybody can pitch with their good stuff; you've got to be able to pitch when you're off too. I thought I did a pretty good job (of that)." This mind set, as much as anything, may explain why Farnum was able to avoid meltdowns in his first professional season where he was Spokane's most consistent pitcher and could turn out to be a steal for the Rangers.
2004 Season Projection: Like Lorenzo, he should start off at Clinton and will have to fight his way up through the logjam of arms ahead of him.



#18 Justin Echols

Notes: This guy has all the talent in the world, but continues to struggle with the strike zone. He's still very young (21) and remains a very good candidate to put it all together this year. Through the first half of the season, Echols was every bit as dominating as Juan Dominguez. The Cal League hit .206 against him through 98 innings, during which Echols posted a 2.85 ERA, fanning one an inning and during the month of June, he was dazzling with a 1.36 ERA and a fantastic 39 / 8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Echols suffered some wounds in the Texas League, but they were mostly self-inflicted. He held the league to a .205 batting-average-against in 44 frames, but issued 26 free passes. His ERA with runners in scoring position was a troublesome .289. Following that, Echols suffered a woeful AFL season that I won't get into other than to say that it has, admittedly unfairly, left him anywhere from four to eight spots lower in my rankings than he would have been had he not gone to Arizona at all. It was just so bad that I can't get it out of my head.
2004 Season Projection: He'll be back in the Frisco rotation and, clearly, this is a huge year for Echols who finds himself in an organization that privileges "pitchability" over potential. He was drafted by a regime that was looking for fireballing strikeout artists (Lewis, Regilio, Hughes, Echols, etc.), but current management loves guys who pound the zone. On one hand, Echols' stuff and occasional lapses in concentration might lead one to believe that he could become a closer or top setup guy, but on the other, his poor performance with runners in scoring position runs contrary to such notions. Hence, I feel that if Echols is to make it, he'll do so as a starter. I think we'll know pretty soon if Echols has the confidence in his stuff to consistently pound the zone. If / when that day comes, his talent could elevate him to a spot near the top of this list.



#19 Ben Keiter

Notes: This is my darkhorse, longshot, etc. I guess that he is mostly a hunch play on my part, but I just really like what Keiter--who was returning from TJ surgery which cost him the entire 2002 season--did in his first fifteen appearances last year enough to overlook the enormous plunge he took in his final ten appearances. I am liberally allowing that Keiter's swoon was a product of a sort of tired-arm syndrome that often seems to strike kids in their first season coming back from surgery. After starting the season in extended spring training, he was sent to Clinton where he manhandled the MWL, which hit just .189 against him in five appearances. Keiter continued to roll along through his first five appearances in Stockton, which were even more dominating. Through his first 16 Cal League frames, his ERA was 1.10 and as of the end of May, Keiter was outpitching is tandem partner, a guy then known as Jose Dominguez. In early-June, he started to struggle with two horrible outings in a row, but fought back with a gem on June 13 and another one four days later and yet another one on June 21 that left him with a 2.67 ERA through ten Cal League appearances. Soon thereafter, the wheels fell off for Keiter and he limped home through his final ten appearances, but battled nonetheless. His early dominance of the Cal League leaves me confident that he did not reach his ceiling, but probably just wore out physically.
2004 Season Projection: I am certain that Keiter will go back to Stockton to start the year where I figure that he will do quite well and move to the front of the pack among that rotation for a promotion to Frisco.



#20 Jason Andrew

Notes: Just a steady-Eddie who gives his club a chance to win every game, but nothing spectacular. He seldom delivers an eye-popping line in a box score, but that goes both ways. He just as seldom has a bad day on the hill. Undrafted and under the radar his whole life, Andrew lacks the prospect pedigree to give one the idea that he will just break out one of these days (like, say, Echols or Colby Lewis or Nick Masset).
2004 Season Projection: He would seem to be on the line between returning to Stockton and earning a shot at the Texas League. Neither assignment would surprise me. He's another "pitchability" guy who will just move along until he hits his ceiling, and its possible that he just won't ever do so.

[Drbio]

I had to break this into two posts because the bold feature was screwing up. Wierd ghosts in the d-m.com machine......

[Dooby]

#33) Chan Ho Park:

Notes: Spare.

2004 Season Projection: Big bag o' nothing.

[OutletPass]

Sounds like some fine prospects, Doc. Hard to believe that we may have some nice pitching in the next few years...Shocking !!

[Blonde Bomber]

It won't be long before Danks moves up the ladder again, and again, and again. The kid has amazing stuff and will SHOCKED if he is not on the Rangers pitching staff 2 years from now. It would be nice if Dominguez, Kozlowski, Danks, and Lewis be the centerpiece of a good pitching staff in the future. Maybe by then Ranger Management might actually go after another top starter to go with them.

Things look promising. But while we suck and have the advantage of drafting high we need to keep with drafting young stud pitchers, like Danks, if where ever going to see the light at the end of the tunnell.

[grbh]

Has Mario Ramos just completely fallen off of the radar screen?

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: grbh
Has Mario Ramos just completely fallen off of the radar screen?

Ramos hasn't been wiht the Rangers in a long while. He was DFA'd, picked up by Oakland (his original team) and the last I heard he had been released again. I'm not sure where he is right now.

[Drbio]

Hindman does an incredibly good job. I will post his updates as they come in for the other positions.

[grbh]

Forgot about that. That trade didn't work out to well. I still think Pena might end up being a servicable first baseman. His average was pretty crumby last year, but he is starting to show a little pop in his bat. It isn't what you need out of a starting first basemanm, but that takes some time with the kiddies.

[Drbio]

Pena is playing at Detroit with Pudge. He has a quick bat, but a slow head from what I have heard. That is probably unfair though. That trade ended up being a spare-fest....who would have thought?


If you are interested in former Ranger/Detroit Tiger news, Dean palmer announced his retirement recently.

[grbh]

Yea I knew that about Pena and Palmer (wasn't it back problems for Palmer). I can believe what you are saying about Pena being a bit slow due to the fact he is still a huge strikeout liability.

He actually played ok after a terrible start last year though. I think he can become a decent player.

As far as that trade went it sure has been a spare fest considering both of the guys were pretty promising prospects. I actually liked the trade for obvious reason, Texeira/Blalock, and Ramos was coming off of a real nice season. Of course he hasn't done anything since

[Drbio]

I liked Pena. Too bad he didn't live up to the hype here.

[Drbio]

Here are #21-30....enjoy!



#21) Nick Masset:

Notes: Masset could easily prove in a hurry that he should have been much higher on this list, but his strange inconsistency last year--evidently unrelated to physical problems of any kind--bothered me quite a bit. From May 1 through about the end of July, Masset was every bit as good as anyone in the organization, but he began miserably with an April from hell (11.75 ERA with 13 walks and just seven whiffs in 20.1 innings). The fact that he finished the season with a 4.08 ERA tells you how good he was the rest of the way, but it should have been better notwithstanding his wretched April. On July 7, Masset tossed three scoreless innings, giving up three hits, refusing to issue a free pass and racked up five strikeouts which left him with an ERA of 3.93. A minor late- season swoon took him back up over 4.00 and left me still skeptical about whether or not this one- time super-prospect would ever truly "get it." As a high school senior in 2000, Masset was universally considered a potential first-round draft pick when he blew out his elbow in his first appearance of the season in front of over four dozen pro scouts. The Rangers were thrilled to grab him in the eighth round. After sitting out that season, he has never impressed (except his 2001 Florida Instructional League stint where he went 2-0, 1.76 with 14 strikeouts in 13.2 frames) until his march through the summer of 2003 when, at long last, it seemed that the Nick Masset that scouts projected as a first rounder in 2000 came to the fore. Interestingly, Masset managed only 63 K's against 43 walks in 123 innings of work. Even during his three month hot streak, his K numbers were less than inspiring. This leads me to believe that Mr. Masset, who grew up blowing everyone away with his superior stuff and 95 mph teen-aged cheese, is really learning how to pitch because he simply isn't overpowering anyone at this point.
2004 Season Projection: Masset will be one of the eight members of the Stockton rotation when camps break. This is a huge year for the young man and he must avoid reprising his April of a year ago to stay in the mix. There are simply too many promising starters hanging around this organization right now and Masset must prove that he deserves a rotation slot.

#22) Omar Beltre:

Notes: A $650,000 bonus baby out of the Dominican. The guy is pretty good, but just can't stay healthy enough to reach the top 10, where I suspect a healthy Omar Beltre might very well be. He was brilliant in Clinton, but missed three weeks of action in mid-season because of elbow soreness. When he was healthy, the MWL was simply no match for him, as he came in with a 2.39 ERA in 49 innings of work and the league hit .250 against him in spite of the fact that he fanned only 27 (while walking 11).
2004 Season Projection: I get the feeling that the Rangers are at least as likely to consider Beltre a reliever as a starter, but it's just a feeling...augmented by the fact that he finished seven games last season in Clinton. Either way, Beltre figures to start off in Stockton, probably in their bullpen, and not in one of the eight "starter" slots. I suspect that the club would still like to see him succeed as a starter and even if he starts off in the pen and is solid, he could get back into the rotation.

#23) Cody Smith:

Notes: After a fine career at Fresno State where he succeeded on the strength of knowhow instead of pure talent (or so it seems to have been thought), Smith signed as an undrafted free agent and was assigned to the AZL club where he was brilliant, giving the little Rangers 43 innings with a 2.91 ERA, fanning 27 while walking ten and holding the league to a .199 batting average against. He was then summoned to Clinton to help the LumberKings down the stretch, making two appearances (one in the playoffs) without allowing an earned run, going six frames each time. It was certainly encouraging to see Smith rise up and thrive in a brief low A turn. Unless you allow yourself to believe that a guy who doesn't strike hitters out in enormous numbers can't make it (and you shouldn't use that as a litmus test: Greg Maddux fanned only 125 in 186 class A innings and 35 in 62.1 AA frames; Roy Halladay fanned 124 in 187 class A innings), there is no reason to believe that Smith isn't a legitimate candidate to rise quickly, given his maturity, advanced approach and general "pitchability."
2004 Season Projection: Smith should return to the Clinton rotation.

#24) John Connally Barnett:

Notes: A year ago, Barnett would have been in the top 10. I suspect that 2003 was mentally and emotionally difficult for Barnett who, while pitching very well early for Stockton, kept racking up losses that made it seem like he was failing when he really wasn't. Eventually, Barnett's performance started to slip and he really struggled through July and early August. But then, when the organization started letting the starters stretch it out and Barnett was moved into the pen, he found it again. Setting up closer Steve Rowe through the tail end of the season and into the playoffs, Connally helped turn Stockton games into six or seven inning affairs when the Ports had the lead. On a few occasions, Barnett stretched out to three innings in his relief role and was still dominant. I have a hunch that the kid found himself again and I hope that whatever damage was done to his psyche by enduring 14 losses during the season was healed as he assumed an important role for the Ports down the stretch and made the most of it.
2004 Season Projection: It is possible that Barnett will be converted into a reliever at this point. Though the 8-man / dual starter system makes this stat a bit misleading, Barnett's ERA out of the pen last year was 3.69 in 53.2 innings. In 70 innings as a starter, it was 5.91. As hard as rotation slots will be to come by this year, and as well as he performed in the pen, Barnett's days in a rotation could be over. If he does get another shot, he can't afford even a minor setback.

#25) Kelvin Jimenez:

Notes: He's been teasing us for years, it seems, but he has yet to truly deliver on his enormous promise. Jimenez put together a horrible season in Stockton, which is a pitchers park. His 4.78 ERA over 131 innings of work is a concern, but perhaps not so much as his horrible regression from 2002 in Savannah. His command margin took a big step backwards from a respectable 114 / 79 a poor 96/ 91 and he gave up 14 homers in a yard where homers aren't exactly easy to come by.
2004 Season Projection: Jimenez will almost certainly return to Stockton's rotation where, at 23, he will need to step it up a notch or two to keep up with the armada of young starters moving in on him.

#26) Marc LaMacchia:

Notes: Yeah, I know. Never pitched an inning. Missed almost his entire junior season at Florida State and Stanford ace John Hudgins witnessed the pitch on which LaMacchia's season came to an end. Hudgins told the NLMR readers last month that LaMacchia "was absolutely dominating us through about three innings and then, on one pitch, you could just tell that something had happened." A healthy LaMacchia probably would have been, at worst, a second or third round draft choice last year and we shouldn't forget that there is this huge bundle of talent hanging around for use at some point in the future. He went under the knife in early March, so there's a pretty good chance that he'll be ready for action early this season. LaMacchia throws four pitches, featuring a 92 mph sinking fastball and a plus curve.
2004 Season Projection: I haven't heard anything on LaMacchia's progress. The club waited until late in the summer to approach him with a deal and signed him just before classes started. Following the usual time table for Tommy John recovery, LaMacchia figures to be ready to throw by now and though he may not be ready for a spot in anyone's rotation to start the season, he should be ready to front the Spokane eight-man when NWL play begins in June. He'll turn 22 just before camp breaks.

#27) Williams Sarmiento:

Notes: At 18 years of age, Sarmiento demonstrated remarkable control and the ability to keep the ball in the yard in his first season in North America. A product of the Rangers Venezuelan program, Sarmiento went 6-1 with a 4.36 ERA in Arizona, fanning 46 and walking 14 in 53.2 innings. He allowed only two homers and--get this--one sac fly all year. The league hit .277 against him and, as indicated, they scored fairly well, but he didn't give anything away.
2004 Season Projection: An assignment to Clinton wouldn't shock me, but given his youth, I suspect that he will spend a little extra time in Arizona when the clubs break up for the season and then show up at the front of the Spokane rotation in June.

#28) Kevin Altman:

Notes: Long (6'3") lean (160 lbs.) and fresh out of a Riverside, California, high school, Kevin Altman was sent to Arizona after making a surprise appearance in the 16th round of the 2003 draft and the league hit a miserable .204 against him in 35 innings of work. He fanned 26 and walked 14, but did not hit a batter (of course that may or may not be a good thing) and threw only two wild pitches. Scouting reports mention his smooth arm action and ability to keep hitters off balance.
2004 Season Projection: Like Sarmiento, Altman figures to start his season in June with Spokane. As the first high school project drafted by the Rangers last year aside from John Danks, and with so many starting prospects around, there is no need to rush things with this young man who figures to grow a bunch in the next couple of years.

#29) Gerald Smiley:

Notes: If only this guy could stay healthy.... When Smiley goes to the mound, he's invariably salty, but an elbow problem won't go away and he has spent far more time on the bench than on the hill during his three years on the organization. A ninth rounder in 2001 out of a Seattle-area high school, where he was also a superb guard on his prep hoops team, Smiley took only 14 turns in the Clinton 8-man rotation and gave the L-Kings 45 solid innings, chalking up a 3.74 ERA. His secondary numbers weren't great (23 / 17 strikeout-to-walk ratio), but he only allowed one to leave the yard and the league could only manage a .238 batting-average against him.
2004 Season Projection: Smiley is actually still age-appropriate for the MWL and if he's healthy, he should start off in the L-Kings rotation where he will--like so many others--have to fight to keep it.


#30) Kiki Bengochea:

Notes: It's hard to know what it was that went wrong with Bengochea last year, but something sure did. Maybe he was hurt, and maybe he lost interest (and lord I hope not since we gave him $550,000 to sign just a year ago), but he was woefully inconsistent and all too often, just plain bad. But he was bad in ways that he hadn't been bad before. For instance, his command collapsed to a 94 / 60 strikeout-to-walk ratio from his 2002 season when it was a pretty solid 36 / 14. His grounder-to-fly ball ratio skyrocketed from a salty 1.81 / 1 ratio at Savannah in 2002 when he allowed no dingers in 39 innings, to a fly-ball festival season in which he gave up 14 gopher balls in 119 innings. He's just got too much back class and showed us too much in Savannah to completely write him off at this point.
2004 Season Projection: Bengochea will return to Stockton where he will be lucky to find a rotation slot waiting for him.

[XERXES]

I hope #5 John Hudgins works out. He's one of my best friend's cousins. Stand up guy. Work horse.

[Kid California]

I live in Stockton which is about 40 minutes away from sacramento, and when i realized that The Stockton Ports were the Ranger's minor league team, I attended a few of their games. I saw Thompson start one of those games, and out of all of pitchers i saw, i thought he was the best. He pretty much overpowered everyone. The Loe kid was pretty good as well, i was surprised to hear that scouts dont think too highly of him. I didnt ever hear of him playing after that though. The other pitcher i saw was a guy named kiki. Nothing Special. I wished i could have seen dominguez. I never saw his name in the box scores so im thinking he wasnt even assigned to stockton. As for hitters, nothing special really. A fan favorite is Pat Boyd, OF, think he leads the team in hr. Drew Meyer didnt do much when i attended. Sinisi was suppose to be the savior for a mediocre hitting team. I didnt catch any of his games because he came later on, but from what i heard he is gonna be SPECIAL.