Stat Study: A 'Get-Home Game' Trend?

[kriD]

Road-Killed

Stat Study: A 'Get-Home Game' Trend?

Mike Fisher -- DallasBasketball.com - Posted: 3/21/06

A winning edge? The Mavs don't leave home without it.

They do, however, seem to leave that edge in the towns where they call it quits on their road trips.

This concept began at DallasBasketball.com a few days ago, when veteran team spokesman/pepperpot guard Darrell Armstrong spoke of the woes of the road. DA took it beyond the usual moaning, however, specifically touching on the psychological challenge that is the FINAL game of a road trip.

You are especially tired. You are especially drained. You have either scaled, or failed to scale, what is usually a week-long mountain. The wife is calling, wondering if you can hurry back to town. When you get back, the mortgage will be due, the kids need your attention, the dog must be groomed.

As a result, Armstrong says frankly, "you sometimes feel like you are halfway home while you're still halfway through the game.''

Interesting concept. More interesting are some numbers that back it up.

With Dallas' 100-89 loss at New Jersey on Sunday, the Mavs are 52-15. That's a winning percentage of 78 percent. How do the Mavs generally do on the road? Quite well, thank you. They are the best road team in the NBA, at 23-10. That's a winning percentage of 70 percent.

But. ... there is one area where the Mavs are but a .500 team.

Dallas has played 14 final games of road trips. We'll call them "Get-Home Games.'' And the Mavs' record in those "Get-Home Games'' is 7-7.

Feeling like "you are halfway home while you're still halfway through the game''?

The numbers say it is so.

An even more troubling indictment: The two other top teams in the West -- teams that ostensibly play schedules that are similar enough to Dallas' -- don't suffer in nearly the same way in Get-Home Games.

The Suns are 45-20 overall (69 percent). They are 19-11 on the road (63 percent). And by gosh, in Get-Home Games, Phoenix actually gets better, with a 10-4 mark (71 percent).

The Spurs are remarkably in their consistency. San Antonio is 52-14 overall (79 percent). The Spurs are 23-10 on the road (70 percent). And in Get-Home Games, they are -- you guessed it -- still at 70 percent, with a 12-5 mark.

There is one twist, and if you love both conspiracies and your Mavs, you will hate this:

Mixed into our "end-of-road-trip'' numbers are outings that are actually just one-game road trips. You know the drill: Dallas plays at home, takes a quick trip to Denver for a roadie, then comes back home to play in Dallas again. A one-game road trip.

We'll assume that those "Singles'' don't have the same emotional, physical and mental drain as four-games-in-four-cities-in-seven-nights trips. "Singles'' seem less demanding, do they not?

Dallas will play three more "Get-Home Games'' (one of them "Singles'') after having played 14 of them. Of those 14 "Get-Home Games,'' three have been "Singles.'' Just three of the seemingly "easy'' version of the "Get-Home Game,'' and just four for the entire year.

Phoenix will play five more "Get-Home Games'' (one of them "Singles'') after having played 14 of them. Of those 14 "Get-Home Games,'' six have been "Singles.'' So while Dallas gets just four of the seemingly "easy'' version of the "Get-Home Game,'' Phoenix will receive seven "Singles'' for the season.

And then there is San Antonio. The Spurs will play four more "Get-Home Games.'' Three of the four will be "Singles''! The Spurs will total 21 "Get-Home Games'' for the year. ... but an astounding 10 of them have already been "Singles,'' with the three more to come!

Now, we know we're running the risk of what we sometimes call "Uncle Norming you too death,'' i.e., going overboard with obscure stats a la our man Norm Hitzges. We also know that sometimes, it's just a matter of a good team like New Jersey playing well at home after an early tipoff. Oh, and one more thing: the fact that it was a Mav that first floated the concept could suggest that any explanation of this trend is simply excuse-making, or worse, a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But if you buy any of it, you are left with two conclusions:

1) The NBA schedule-makers would be wise to review this. If Darrell Armstrong is right, and the final game of a road trip is especially grueling, teams should have approximately the same number of those "Get-Home Games.'' And if "Singles'' are less-demanding versions of the "GHG,'' one franchise shouldn't be allowed to play twice as many of them -- or in the case of San Antonio-vs.-Dallas, FIVE TIMES AS MANY AS THEM -- as other franchises.

2) The schedule-makers notwithstanding, the Mavs have created for themselves a terrible disadvantage. This fine team, a title contender, rarely shoots itself in the hightops. But in "Get-Home Games,'' it has has many losses as it has in all other circumstances combined.

On normal nights, the Jazz, the Knicks, the Bucks and the Kings -- maybe even the Nets -- can't play with the Mavs. But those teams have handed Dallas defeats on "Get-Home Games,'' making Dallas' record on those nights and days anything but "normal.''

[Murphy3]

...not a good article..

[orangedays]

Another fantastic 'stat study' by the Fish.

[kriD]

Three-beat

It's Rocky, Thin, Thick, Train-Wrecked

By Mike Fisher -- DallasBasketball.com

"I love coaching my team,'' Mavs coach Avery Johnson said this week, with his Mavs in the middle of a dismal skid during which they have now lost three straight and five of the last seven. "I'm on the train with them, through thick and thin, whether it gets rocky or not."

Welcome aboard a rocky, thin, thick stretch of railroad.

A notebook full of mostly angrily-scribbled thoughts on Friday's 108-99 loss at Orlando:

ROAD-KILLED REDUX: You might recall our recent Road-Killed story that, at the time it was written, reviewed what we found to be an odd quirk in the Dallas season. As consistently great as the Mavs have been all year -- and even now, they possess the third best record in all of basketball -- we deemed them pretty lousy in one category:

"Get-Home Games.'' That is, final games of road trips.

It's not a recognized NBA stat; heck, we can't even find a record of anyone ever discussing it before. So call it a fluke if you like. But as of the moment we wrote it, two weeks ago following a loss at New Jersey, Dallas was just 7-7 in road-trip-ending games.

Now, the Mavs are 7-8 in "Get-Home Games.''

Still think it's nothing more than a fluke?

WHAT'S THE POINT?: Mavs voice Bob Ortegel found a polite way to say it. "It's been a story of point-guard play,'' Coach O would say during the telecast, as he complimented the work of Jameer Nelson (10-of-15, 27 points) and Carlos Arroyo (4-of-6, 12 points).

May I say it in a less polite way?

"It was a story of crappy point-guard play from Jason Terry and Darrell Armstrong.''

Jason Terry cranked it up a bit in the fourth, as the Mavs attempted a patented comeback. Down 87-70 at the start of the fourth, Dallas mounted a 15-4 run to come to within six with six minutes left.

But JET (despite his 23 total) seemed to lack his usual intensity here. And DA -- who is, for the record, a DB.com favorite -- continued to find himself exposed by playing time. Darrell is an invaluable guy on the bench, in the room, for the franchise as a whole. However, outside of his scrappy willingness to take a charge, the 37-year-old is simply overmatched when he is over-used.

Said AJ: "Their point guards destroyued us. It's that simple. The point guards destroyed us.''

Point-guard play, of course, is the key to down-the-stretch execution. And once again, Dallas closed sloppily.

"Again, we made silly mistakes down the stretch,'' said Johnson, adding that "we start(ed) the game all soft.''

Soft at one end. Sloppy at the other. An unfortunate combination.

STACKED: Gotta love Jerry Stackhouse's self-confidence. His resume shows him to be an All-Star, a scoring champ, a Sixth Man of the Year leader, a stud.

But gosh, a 6-of-13 shooting night ought to cause just a moment of reflection, shouldn't it? Or is it acceptable to continue cranking up jumpers when handling the ball on a 1-on-4 fast break?

JUST JOSHIN': Josh Howard returned to the floor after a nine-game absence, and looked fairly rust-free as he got the start. He played 18 minutes, registering 10 points and five rebounds, and looked frisky. But J-Ho did not play down the stretch, AJ opting to allow young Josh Powell critical burn in the final quarter. A howard-related precautionary measure?

"Josh was OK,'' Johnson said. "We were hoping he got back in the game. But we didn't take any steps backwards.''

While J-Ho did play, Orlando native Marquis Daniels sat out with a neck problem. And D.J. Mbenga served a league suspension for his flagrant foul on LeBron James earlier in the week. Adrian Griffin will attempt to return to action on Sunday against the Nuggets, and Devin Harris will begin practicing next week.

Not much more time for much more caution, you know.

BY THE NUMBERS: If you are a gambling type, you need to know about that "Get-Home Games'' thing. You probably already knew that Dallas hadn't lost three straight since a year ago. And that Dallas is 3-14 all-time in Orlando. And that the Magic has now won seven straight at home. And that these Mavs are 9-8 in this month of March. And that Dallas is now 2.5 games behind the Spurs in the race for the West.

And April games can't come fast enough, and we're not foolin'.

YOU'RE MISSING A GOOD GAME!: Blaming losses on officials really isn't our thing around here.

But. ...

The zebras missed an Orlando double-dribble call in the final minutes that might have been critical. DeShawn Stevenson's attempt to start a fight slid by. Contact inside left the refs to make wild guesses -- or even odd rule interpretations, as when Nowitzki complained about catching a nasty forearm across the back of the head and was told, by way of explanation from one of the Three Stooges: "But they (also) blocked your shot!''

The refs didn't lose this game. The Mavs did. But it is fair to say the refs played right down to Dallas' level.

MVP DOUBLE-TALK: Just when I thought I had it figured out. ...

Steve Nash is going to be the MVP, because he won it last year and this season, he's played just as well but without Amare. Then Nash goes and has a scoreless night. Kobe Bryant is going to be the MVP for all eternity. Then he goes an allegedly rapes somebody. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade and Chauncey Billups are in there somewhere. Oh, and TNT recently pitched for Yao Ming.

And Dirk is still a candidate, too, right?

As usual on Friday, Nowitzki single-handedly tried to keep his Mavs afloat. The UberMan contributed 38 points, 15 rebounds and four assists.

MVP'ish, no?

But while he was doing that, the ESPN basketball crew was doing its thing. Greg Anthony dissed Dirk for being unable to top Bruce Bowen one night this year. And Stephen A. Smith decided that Shawn Marion is the MVP.

Hey, I'm glad I don't have a vote. Because when I compare my thoughts to those above, I clearly have no idea what I'm talking about.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by kriD

[B]
YOU'RE MISSING A GOOD GAME!: Blaming losses on officials really isn't our thing around here.

But. ...

The zebras missed an Orlando double-dribble call in the final minutes that might have been critical. DeShawn Stevenson's attempt to start a fight slid by. Contact inside left the refs to make wild guesses -- or even odd rule interpretations, as when Nowitzki complained about catching a nasty forearm across the back of the head and was told, by way of explanation from one of the Three Stooges: "But they (also) blocked your shot!''

.

wow