What A Poker Hand! from DB.com

[jayC]

What A Poker Hand!
Mavs Now Hold Cards For Multi Deals


By David Lord and Mike Fisher -- DallasBasketball.com
Exploring the angles to the Jamison Trade – angles that may give the Mavs enough chips to talk to the Lakers about Shaq, AND talk to Orlando about T-Mac, AND talk to NY about Kurt Thomas:
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Pending NBA approval, the Mavs sent Antawn Jamison to the Wizards Wednesday night for SG Jerry Stackhouse, C/F Christian Laettner, and the fifth pick in today's NBA Draft.
In moving Jamison, the Mavs needed to obtain a ton in return. Now that Dallas seems to have a full hand in this game of poker, what happens from here? The full story:
THE PRIMARY BENEFITS IN WHAT THE MAVS OBTAINED

The strength of this deal: it takes a big piece and splits it up into 3 smaller usable pieces. In the right situation, Stackhouse (who was Wash's best player when healthy), Laettner (expiring contract), and the high draft choice can be effectively flexible pieces to use in acquiring a particular player. A sole $11M long-term contract (Jamison), even with a good player, has much more limited use in fitting into every trade possibility.
This makes Dallas much more flexible in doing those mid-level deals involving players in the 6-8M range. Also, the high draft pick is another very usable chip.
Each of these pieces could also be separately included or excluded from larger deals (like the potential Shaq deal), depending on what is needed, adding flexibility to larger deals as well as to the medium sized ones. (Stackhouse to NY for Kurt Thomas?)
One other thing screams out from looking at the angles to this trade: something else is clearly in the works – and there are Cheshire Cat smirks on the faces of Mavs people, as if they are very pleased with what’s in the works. The pieces the Mavs added are so supremely tradeable in any number of scenarios that it becomes apparent more things must be in the works. Indeed there could be several more moves coming, starting as early as today.
THE DRAFT PICK RAMIFICATIONS

The rumor is that the Mavs haven't privately worked out anyone who would be available this high and are scrambling. The draft is today, which leaves little time for looking at players. Maybe that points to another trade coming involving the draft pick being dealt. Or maybe they are about to make a blind draft pick and make a mistake. Or maybe they will be drafting for some other team, with whatever choice they make being determined by another team and being moved later in an already agreed-upon trade. The possibilities are far-ranging.
One other possibility to consider: maybe this late trade for a high draft pick means they made up their mind long ago, know exactly who they want, and have been angling to get to this spot in the draft.
Remember when the popular rumor was that the Mavs had a deal in placing moving Jamison to Charlotte for the #4? This is about the same thing, isn't it. Is that a coincidence?
What might the Mavs want with a pick in the 4-5 range? If they use this pick, are they thinking of a replacement PG for Nash, or would this be for a big man?
A draft day that looked to be mundane and forgettable suddenly has taken on all kinds of drama in Mavs Land.
SOME RULES TO WATCH OUT FOR IN TRYING TO READ THE TEA LEAVES IN THE NEAR TERM REGARDING THE NEXT MOVE(s)



Assuming this deal is done, the Mavs can’t separately re-trade Laettner or Stackhouse for 60 days unless they are traded alone. So they can't be headed to LA as part of a package to match Shaq's huge salary in a deal any time soon.

If they wanted to, the Mavs couldn't trade Nash in a sign-and-trade til July 14, and then only to a team of his choosing.

Salary matching in trades changes to 2004-05 contract figures on July 1.

If you trade the draft pick, the cap rules are easy if you trade it for other draft picks. Til a contract is signed, there is no "cap value" attached for salary matching purposes, either for the pick or for the player selected. After a contract is signed, the contract counts as part of the salary match in any trade, but that player can't be traded til at least mid-December.

Dampier can't be acquired in a sign-and-trade until July 14 unless he formally declines to opt out.
IS ANOTHER MOVE IMMINENT WITH STACKHOUSE OR LAETTNER?

ESPN’s David Aldridge has written already that Stackhouse is headed to the New York area. (Aldridge always has every available player somehow headed to one of the NY area teams it seems, but this item at least shows that outsiders expect Stackhouse to be moved.) We believe Stackhouse will be re-traded and never play here. In summary, there is apparently evidence that something else is contemplated with Stackhouse, and perhaps even already determined.
Regarding Laettner, don't lose sight of his expiring contract and medium price range ($6.1M). This could be a usable angle that increases his trade value and desirability if another move is in the works. On the other hand, Laettner is a big man who can make a shot, and having played here for half a season four years ago, there is a comfort level, so the Mavs could also have a use for him on the court if they prefer.
HOW COULD THIS TRADE WORK WITH OTHER TEAMS? SOME RANDOM IDEAS

Indiana ...They have players like Harrington and Artest openly available. Are those players that would improve the Mavs? Would Stackhouse and the pick be enough to obtain one of them? Stackhouse, Laettner, and the pick for both? The numbers are workable if structured carefully.
Golden State .... If Dampier is going to play elsewhere next year, would the Warriors want to swap picks (getting #5 for #11) and then take one of the two ex-Wizards (probably Laettner, with the expiring contract and who plays the same position) for Dampier? The contracts are close enough to be potentially workable with some filler. The higher draft pick allows GS to replace Dampier with a better player than at 11. The Mavs trade down still lets them take one of the young big man prospects, one or more of whom should be available at 11 as well as at 5: Biedrins, Podkolzine or Ramos.
Or, would one or the other of the ex-Wizards work for a SNT acquisition of Foyle?
Orlando .... Dallas now has a full complement of trade pieces to mirror contractually with Orlando's pieces, mix and match style. #1 and #5. McGrady and Finley. Juwan Howard and Laettner. Hill and Walker. Does this make a fertile climate for some sort of deal with the Magic?
If the Mavs trade all 4, they end up with immediate long-term upgrades at SG/SF (McGrady) and C (Okafor) to fill in around Nowitzki, Nash, Daniels, and Josh Howard.
Orlando would get a very good SG and solid citizen (Finley) to replace McGrady, a high draft pick (#5) to replace the #1, and expiring contracts (Walker and Laettner) instead of the cap-eating Howard and Hill contracts. Walker and Laettner would be a clear upgrade over Howard for a year, then their contracts would run out to create huge cap room to utilize for further rebuilding.
Lakers ... If Dampier doesn't opt out, a 3-way that acquires and moves Dampier from the Warriors to LA, combined with Laettner and Walker, gives LA 3 big men for a year in exchange for Shaq. Walker and Laettner would be expiring contracts, and Dampier is only a 2-year deal, leaving LA with all kinds of cap options to use to add talent. If you include Bryant and exclude Fox (who appears to be retiring), the Lakers currently only have 6 players returning, so they need to use Shaq's big salary to re-stock their roster with several usable pieces. (The Lakers have no cap room and can only add outside players to their roster with their MLE or on a Minimum contract.)
If Nash somehow becomes part of a deal for Shaq, Laettner could be used in a side deal for Payton, to provide a PG for the Mavs. Those two would fit the salary matching rules, and such a one-on-one portion could allow Laettner to be re-traded immediately.
Boston ...Would one or the other of the ex-Wizards work for a SNT acquisition of Blount?
The beauty of what the Mavs are doing goes beyond gaining an even greater foothold on chasing Shaq. They’ve now got so many chips that they have so many options. They’ve got almost endless options. --BACK--

[uberfan]

Sounds good on paper but I don't see it playing out this way.

I could be way off, but I don't see what Mavs did in draft working for McGrady and not sure we want him. I like the role players we are accumulating at 2-3.

We are still in the picture for Shaq but I still see Shaq leaving LAL as a long-shot. If he goes we are postioned nicely to "help them out".

Blount is susposedly signing with Miami, according to the analysis on ESPN tonight.