Dirk Nowitzki clutch free throw shooting - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

dude1394 · 03-18-2007, 11:30 PM

Hat-tip on this from ep over at http://p073.ezboard.com/Dirk-Nowitzk...ID=29124.topic

Dirk Nowitzki clutch free throw shooting since November 2003 82games.com featured some clutch free throw stats, but only through april 5th 06, so I browsed through the remaining games of the 05-06 season, the 2006 playoffs and the 2006-07 season.

the definition they used: Clutch Free Throw = under two minutes left in the game, neither team is ahead by more than three points. (That strict definition does exclude a lot of other made fts but also the missed one with the Mavs leading the Suns 109-103, however.)

data sample:
2003-04 regular season + playoffs
2004-05 regular season + playoffs
2005-06 regular season + playoffs
2006-07 regular season

clutch ft percentage: 88-101 (.871)

splits

2006 playoffs

game 3 vs SA 4-4 (giving the mavs a 1 pt lead, stackhouse was 0-2 afterwards)
game 4 vs SA 2-2 (forcing overtime)
game 7 vs SA 1-1 (forcing overtime)
game 3 vs MIA 1-2 (&%$§)

= 8-9 (.889)

2006-07 regular season

11/24/06 vs SA 2-2
12/28/06 vs PHX 2-2
01/09/07 vs UTA 2-2
01/12/07 vs IND 3-4
01/27/07 vs SAC 2-2
01/31/07 vs MEM 3-3
02/03/07 vs MIN 2-2
03/03/07 vs ORL 2-2
03/14/07 vs PHX 1-2
03/16/07 vs BOS 2-2
03/18/07 vs DET 1-2

= 22-25 (.880)

So he misses one here and there but he doesn't shoot significantly worse when the game is on the line.

endrity · 03-18-2007, 11:39 PM

Great find man

chumdawg · 03-18-2007, 11:44 PM

A 90% shooter is 81% percent to make them both (.9*.9). So 19% of the time, a 90% shooter misses one of two. One in five. It does happen.

nashtymavsfan13 · 03-18-2007, 11:49 PM

Nice stats dude and chum, good to see that his clutch free throw shooting is still much better than most. It just seems worse because it's been two times so close to each other. I'm still confident he'll make them when they really count.

Flacolaco · 03-18-2007, 11:59 PM

He does make me a little nervous.....

dude1394 · 03-19-2007, 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

He does make me a little nervous.....

i would imagine he never did before the suns game. I know he never did me.

Doesn't really now, except he's going through something that he'll get out of I expect.

purplefrog · 03-19-2007, 01:10 AM

That's what I needed to see. Thanks dude.

Lor20 · 03-19-2007, 02:48 AM

if he'd miss 2 of 2 i'd be concerned but 1 of two just happens sometimes. he ain't a machine even if sometimes it seems like he is. That makes me wonder when was the last time he missed 2 of 2 FT'S? has that happened yet this season?

Thespiralgoeson · 03-19-2007, 06:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

i would imagine he never did before the suns game. I know he never did me.

Doesn't really now, except he's going through something that he'll get out of I expect.

I know for damn sure I'm never nervous when he's at the line. Quite the opposite actually. I always figure its and automatic two points. And I'm usually right. That's why that Phoenix game drove me nuts. To see him miss four FT's like that, I thought I was in the twightlight zone or something.

DevinHarriswillstart · 03-19-2007, 09:36 AM

Good stats, but when all is said and done, its the Miami one that counts. If Dirk hits 199 of 200 ft attempts and that one miss loses him the championship......he'll be known as a choker. Tony Romo catches every snap cept the one that counted. Now I have all the faith that Dirk will be clutch in fts in the finals, so that he won't be remembered for the Miami miss.

alexamenos · 03-19-2007, 09:40 AM

one thing I notice about the last miss v. Pho and yesterday -- in each case Dirk missed the first and made the 2nd. Seems to me that if a fellow chokes on the first, the 2nd is even more pressured packed, and yet dirk makes these.

i really think the "dirk is a choker on the biggest stage" meme that's floating about is a bit of a story looking for facts that fit. Games 3, 4 and 7 v. the Spurs last year all featured dirk making huge plays down the stretch. Game 5 v. the Suns was sick. And even in game 5 v. the Heat Dirk hit great shots at the almost end of reg and ot, only to be trumped (obviously).

there's ample evidence that dirk's clutch for all who have eyes to see.

chumdawg · 03-19-2007, 11:42 AM

Sleeping is giving in,
no matter what the time is.
Sleeping is giving in,
so lift those heavy eyelids.

People say that you'll die
faster than without water.
But we know it's just a lie,
scare your son, scare your daughter.

People say that your dreams
are the only things that save ya.
Come on baby in our dreams,
we can live our misbehavior.

Every time you close your eyes
Lies, lies!
Every time you close your eyes
Lies, lies!
Every time you close your eyes
Lies, lies!
Every time you close your eyes
Lies, lies!

Every time you close your eyes

TheBlueVan · 03-19-2007, 11:49 AM

arcade fire! i like them a lot

Zaknaf3in · 03-19-2007, 11:58 AM

The track to start my day while sittin in the bus, for several months now...

LRB · 03-19-2007, 01:16 PM

It should also be noted that Dirk A) played much more minutes than usual going into the closing minutes of the 4th quarter against Phoenix, and B) was asked to play a lot of one on one D against Nash during that game. Both of these probably tired him much more than usual. Tired legs usualy = lower FT%. With Buck and George hurt, Dirk's been forced to play more minutes. It's very important for us to get healthy by the playoffs.

Also, the Mavs started the Phoenix game playing the same type of crap game they played against Golden State. That forced them to expend tons of energy to overcome an early 16 point deficit. We can't afford crap starts like that against good teams if we want to win those games on a regular basis.

alexamenos · 03-19-2007, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LRB

It should also be noted that Dirk A) played much more minutes than usual going into the closing minutes of the 4th quarter against Phoenix, and B) was asked to play a lot of one on one D against Nash during that game. Both of these probably tired him much more than usual. Tired legs usualy = lower FT%. With Buck and George hurt, Dirk's been forced to play more minutes. It's very important for us to get healthy by the playoffs.

Also, the Mavs started the Phoenix game playing the same type of crap game they played against Golden State. That forced them to expend tons of energy to overcome an early 16 point deficit. We can't afford crap starts like that against good teams if we want to win those games on a regular basis.

right on...tired legs = lower ft% and more mental errors (seriously). dirk is a 7 footer, after all, and I think Avery needs to make a more concerted effort to keep him under 40 minutes per game.

StackAttack · 03-19-2007, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LRB

It should also be noted that Dirk A) played much more minutes than usual going into the closing minutes of the 4th quarter against Phoenix, and B) was asked to play a lot of one on one D against Nash during that game. Both of these probably tired him much more than usual. Tired legs usualy = lower FT%. With Buck and George hurt, Dirk's been forced to play more minutes. It's very important for us to get healthy by the playoffs.

Also, the Mavs started the Phoenix game playing the same type of crap game they played against Golden State. That forced them to expend tons of energy to overcome an early 16 point deficit. We can't afford crap starts like that against good teams if we want to win those games on a regular basis.

He played 57 of a possible 58 minutes. Damn right he was tired.

pkdumas · 03-19-2007, 07:26 PM

When we are assured of the top seed, I say play Dirk only in the first half.

LRB · 03-19-2007, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StackAttack

He played 57 of a possible 58 minutes. Damn right he was tired.

Dirk played 56 minutes and 47 seconds out of a possible 58 minutes. He didn't get any rest in either of the overtime's, which meant going into the closing minutes of the 4th he'd had a total of 1 minute and 13 seconds of rest for the whole game. He was also asked to expend far more energy on the Defensive end that is usual for him.

Meanwhile Nash who also didn't get any rest in either of the overtime's, had about 9 minutes and 40 seconds of rest going into the closing minutes of the 4th quarter. Nash wasn't asked to do much of anything special on the defensive end. Funny how the talking heads miss those little facts.

pkdumas · 03-19-2007, 08:15 PM

Avery shouldn't have played Dirk that much. Seems desperate for a regular season game. Particularly one that has so quickly become IRRELEVENT.

Also, we dogged on Cro a good bit tonite. Not sure what race has to do with it, but it must suck to back up the MVP when you are a tall, white power forward that shoots with range. However distant, the similarities in their games is enough to make Cro subject of comparison to Dirk. In reality, he's our 10th or 11th man with a full roster.

dude1394 · 03-19-2007, 08:23 PM

Cro's been fair. I do like that he's trying to take it into the paint a little more than just jacking up shots. But he's going to be pretty dicey in the playoffs.

twelli · 03-19-2007, 11:47 PM

how about the clutch ft stats for Duncan or Shaq?

dude1394 · 03-19-2007, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twelli

how about the clutch ft stats for Duncan or Shaq?

ox·y·mo·ron (ŏk'sē-môr'ŏn', -mōr'-) Pronunciation Key
n. pl. ox·y·mo·ra (-môr'ə, -mōr'ə) or ox·y·mo·rons
A rhetorical figure in which incongruous or contradictory terms are combined, as in a deafening silence and a mournful optimist.

KingCrunch · 03-20-2007, 06:57 AM

Thx for this, we have to send this to every espn-commentator and everybody else out there who's talking bullshit!

LRB · 03-20-2007, 12:03 PM

It would be intestesting to see how Dirk stacks up in the clutch rebounding department as well. To me it seems he does his best rebounding with the game on the line.