The Who - And Our Analysis Of Mavs' Other 'W's

[kriD]

The Who

And Our Analysis Of Mavs' Other 'W's

By David Lord and Mike Fisher -- DallasBasketball.com

The Mavs have essentially figured out the "who'' of their 2006-07 roster. Now comes something we address here: What to do about the other five W's: the what, where, when and why.

GAME 1 MINUTES: Put us down for believing that the starting lineup in the opener against the Spurs will look like this: Diop, Dirk and J-Ho upfront, with Terry and Devin in the backcourt.

Yes, Devin.

We believe Avery Johnson thinks more highly of Devin Harris -- still fresh off being the No. 5 overall pick in his draft, you know -- than do some pundits who are ready to ship him off to Siberia. (Where, we suppose, he'd at least have a built-in roommate in P-Pod.) We also have memories of how he completely changed the San Antonio matchup in the playoffs, and believe a coach such as Avery who believes so strongly in continuity will feel that Game 1 in the new season is a great time to let him build from where he left off.

We'll even go so far as to give an early line on the breakdown in potential minutes for that game: Dirk 40, Howard 40, JET and Devin 33 each, and Diop 20. Then Damp off the bench for 28, Croshere off the bench for as many as 16, Stackhouse limited to 15, and then spare-change minutes for George, Anthony Johnson and Buckner.

But wait, you say. Quotes from coach Avery Johnson suggest he loves "top addition'' Anthony Johnson. And conventional wisdom has Buck as a starter. And is Stack slipping that much? Oh, and what about minutes for Ager, Mbenga, Pops and the as-yet-to-be-determined15th man?

Answers: Remember, this is our formula for Game 1 only. (More on the other 81 games coming right up.) Regarding Anthony Johnson, although we're interested to see him try to out-and-out take the job from Devin; we don't think it'll be quite that easy. We're going to assume that the rookie Ager won't quite be ready yet, and will take his seat down there with the kids. Really, the only odd fit, minutes-wise, is Jerry Stackhouse.

THE AVERY SYSTEM: Regarding how Stack needs to be used this season, let's make one thing perfectly clear - he is a prototypical 2 in Avery Johnson's system. And that's not the same as a 3.

The Mavericks' old system under Nellie was part of a trend that made the 2 and the 3 interchangeable. In it, if you were near 6-6 and had some of Michael Finley's skill set, you were tossed into a newly minted category known as a "swingman'' - a move that has been since adopted by many other teams. But as Avery has been saying for more than a year (even though many writers and fans have failed to hear), his system is more specific in its demands of the 2 and the 3, each having distinctly different responsibilities. They are no longer interchangeable pieces in Dallas.

This year's team has Devean George - who won't be pressed into service at any other position - available to offer credible backup minutes at the 3. There will be no need to play a 2 out of position as a 3 this time.

INTERCHANGEABLE GUARDS: Avery's system actually does often blend two positions together, but it is now the 1 and the 2 that are blurred into what the Mavs call a "combo guard" concept.

With their combo guards, either may be the ball-handler and/or the shooter, depending on the play that's called and who the other guard is. They are one of the few teams in the NBA that is intentionally using this concept, which is why players like Mike James and Anthony Johnson might be more desirable here than elsewhere in more traditional PG/SG lineups that have a more distinct line between "ballhandler" and "shooter." Also, it is why a player like JET can thrive here as a PG even though he doesn't fit the "traditional PG" mental image that most fans embrace.

Two things to recall: 1) When Doug Christie first arrived last year, DallasBasketball.com reported that the plan called for him to handle much of the ball distribution, a report that was scoffed at by observers who still hadn't caught on to Avery's offense. 2) Whenever Avery talked about what Terry could become, he made the Chauncey Billups analogy.

Although in current times we tend to think of guards in clearly defined PG/SG roles, blurring the distinctions between the two is not new in the NBA. In fact, it's something that has been used over the years by very successful teams. Think about what the Pistons do with Billups and before that what they did with Thomas and Dumars. Recall what the Celtics of the '80s did with Ainge and Dennis Johnson, and what the Bulls did with Jordan and whomever.

THE ROSTER, RE-DEFINED: Let's compare last year to this year, and the way the team has been reshaped. The front office has made an obvious effort to bring in players that fit better in the defined roles of Avery's 2 and 3, to create a more efficient team on the floor.

In last year's playoffs, Howard was a 3, Stack a 2/3, Griff mostly a 2, Marquis a combo guard, Terry a 1/combo, Devin a 1/combo and Armstrong a 1.

How will that change this year? Players will be more clearly set into distinct positions. Howard is a 3, backed up by George, a 3. Buck is a 2, backed up by Stack (a 2) and Ager (a 2). Terry, Devin and Johnson are all 1/combos. It seems to us that the versatility remains but the fits are more appropriate.

If things work like the Mavs hope, in 2006-07 the only time minutes at the 3 should go to Buckner, Stackhouse, or Ager (assuming a healthy roster) will be when Avery either feels he needs to try to sneak one of them a few extra minutes on the floor or is playing trick-it-up three-guard SmallBall.

THE STARTING GUARD BATTLE: To us like the only really meaningful battle for starting positions will come with those three 1/combos along with Buckner, and what the totem pole ends up looking like -- and the trickle-down effect. We think it's less a matter of "which point guard will start'' than it is "which pair of guards is best-suited to start.''

We think the early contest will be "PG Harris and SG Terry'' vs. "PG Terry and SG Buck,'' but are careful to add that it won't be strictly a contest between Harris and Buckner -- too much of it also pivots on how Terry fits (both offensively and defensively) at either position. We're sticking with Devin Harris as the guy who starts camp as Jason's running-mate starter in the backcourt, with Buckner giving chase. And we want to toss one other tidbit into the mix: although Anthony Johnson has been repeatedly touted as a traditional PG who brings those skills to the team, let us be the first to tell you that his game is way more Jason Terry or Darrell Armstrong than it is Steve Nash.

STACK'S ROLE: Let's go back to the situation with Jerry Stackhouse, who played at both the 2 and the 3 last year. We think his use as a 3 was a temporary aberration because of the way the roster was constructed.

What position were the Mavs sometimes thin at last year? The 3. What backup did Avery feel needed to be on the floor? Stackhouse. Therefore, Stack was often used to fill in as Josh's backup, as well as to get more minutes, and was almost always on the floor at game's end -- regardless of position.

There is no question that Stackhouse -- who has been nothing but a good soldier throughout his gradual decline from NBA scoring-champ candidate to supplemental starter to Dallas sixth man -- would prefer to be a 2 from now on. At 6-4 or 6-5, he is sometimes overmatched as a 3. He openly recognizes that.

Correspondingly, in comes Greg Buckner. He was brought in to replace Adrian Griffin, who was used regularly at the 2 but does not possess the primary skills Avery prefers in that job. Buckner does, so he is a 2, and had Griff stayed here, he'd have been a 3. (Instead, Devean George gets that backup 3 spot.).

THE GUARD ROTATION: So back to the question of minutes this season. If Terry and Harris begin as the starters at the guards, and Stack remains Avery's choice as the 6th man, what about players like Buckner, Johnson, and Ager? Are there any minutes left for them?

First of all, let's be clear that even though we expect Terry and Harris to begin the season as the starters, there are likely to be lots of changes throughout the year. Injuries happen, different teams offer different matchup challenges, and the roster "on paper" (and even the individual players and their roles) tend to be much different once the games are actually played.

Secondly, we think Stack's minutes could decrease again - at least for the regular season. We think Avery still expects Stack to play a key 6th man role, but the better roster makeup could alter the way the minutes are doled out.

When we start adding up the number of guards who "need to be on the floor'' while keeping in mind that Stack is a guard, minutes look sparse. If we pencil in Stackhouse as 6th man, and Terry and Harris are the starters, we see Buck and Johnson lined up as second-teamers and Avery is scrambling to find minutes for all of them. And although we don't think he will come far enough in a year to get into the mix as a starter, we do think that rookie Ager is talented enough to find a way to earn regular minutes somehow before the season is done. Minutes will be at a premium for everyone.

In the regular season, wouldn't it make sense for the Mavs to keep the minutes low for Stack's aging legs and creaky knee, to keep him fresh for the playoffs? Wouldn't it be good for him to be inactive/injured for long stretches?

But before we go too far trying to invent convoluted solutions, let's back up and call the minutes crunch a "good problem to have.'' We recall when we laughed at a DFW newspaper's fall article in 2004 that suggested the Mavs had "too many swingmen'' and that the "odd-man out might be Josh Howard.'' Talent and attrition always tend to resolve this type of "problem.''

ONE CONCEPTUAL SIDEBAR: One other development this summer that needs to be noted is that the front office has made a concerted effort to stock up on players that can score the three-pointer. Last year with Griffin, Daniels, and Armstrong as the veteran depth behind Terry, Harris, and Stackhouse, there was a thinness in the outside shooting that could stretch the defense when needed. In the Finals against Miami, this weakness was exposed.

This year Griffin, Daniels, and Armstrong have been replaced by veterans George, Buckner, and Johnson. All of the newcomers are much better long-ballers than their predecessors.

But look for the biggest beneficiaries of this roster change to be Dirk and the centers in the middle. The middle? Yes. The classic inside-outside game makes it easier to score in the middle when the defense cannot abandon the perimeter shooter. In Avery's system, he will always be most concerned about winning the game in the middle. Those shooters are being added to make the team better in the paint.

MIDDLE MEN: While we are examining the roster, let's not forget the progress already made in the middle - at the crucial center position. Last year at this time one of us (who wants to remain nameless) bemoaned the Mavs' failure to address that position with anything more than a signing of a little used youngster that the Cavaliers eagerly allowed into free agency (Diop). Now? In terms of quality and quantity at center, the Mavs have gone from 0 to 60 in just one year.

Suddenly, the Mavs at the 5 go three-deep, with Diop the starter and a known factor, Dampier as the "co-starter'' and a reasonably known factor, and DJ Mbenga earning a new contract and surprising NBA Finals respect, as Avery Johnson hailed his availability.

There have been times in Dallas when the Mavs employed one good center (Donaldson). There have been times when the Mavs employed two intriguing centers (Bradley and Booth, let's say). But for the time being, the Mavs' long nightmare regarding center play appears to be over.

Let national men's magazines poke fun (even a recent issue of GQ dissed Erick Dampier); they're going off sour reps (Damp) and former busts (Diop) and funny names (Mbenga). Basketball people know what Dallas really has: waves and waves of "final defense'' and -- if Avery is right about Mbenga -- three times the center this franchise has ever had before.

CAMP STARTS: It hasn't been announced yet, but we hear Media Day is scheduled for Oct. 2. And the start of camp is Oct 3. (You heard it here first -- unless we turn out to be wrong!)

With the summer having been spent fixing the imbalances at point guard and shooting guard, and assuming contractual business with Dirk and Josh gets done, and assuming the handful of misguided Mavs watchers who think it important that Mark Cuban sit quietly while watching games finally douse their torches and drop their pitchforks, what else will be left to be done? We think there is a psychological hurdle that matters as much as any of the physical issues we've raised here.

Dallas had a 2-and-7/8ths-games lead in the NBA Finals. And it slipped away, in virtually unprecedented manner. Will that outcome vs. Miami prove a crushing blow, or a steppingstone? Trust us when we say the Mavs will handle every detail -- starting with the Nov. 2-vs.-Spurs ceremonial dropping of a "Western Conference Champion'' banner at American Airlines Center -- with a positive psychological outcome in mind.

(Editors' note: Thanks to you all at DB.com Boards and Lone Mavs Fan Forum for conversations that aided this article.)

[Flacolaco]

I am very interested to see this perimeter shooting that will force opponents to stretch their defense. Can the big men figure out how to put the ball in the basket when given these supposed opportunities.....

[jthig32]

And we want to toss one other tidbit into the mix: although Anthony Johnson has been repeatedly touted as a traditional PG who brings those skills to the team, let us be the first to tell you that his game is way more Jason Terry or Darrell Armstrong than it is Steve Nash.

I completely disagree with this. Anthony Johnson is not a scoring PG.

And how can a PG be like Terry and Armstrong at the same time? I see those two as completely different players. That entire statement just doesn't make any sense.

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I completely disagree with this. Anthony Johnson is not a scoring PG.

And how can a PG be like Terry and Armstrong at the same time? I see those two as completely different players. That entire statement just doesn't make any sense.

When Darrell was really good, he was definitly more like Terry/Bibby than Nash... Definitely. I would say that your opinion of him now is blinded by his recent lack of abilities, but when he was with Orlando, he was Terry-lite.

[DLord]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I completely disagree with this. Anthony Johnson is not a scoring PG.

And how can a PG be like Terry and Armstrong at the same time? I see those two as completely different players. That entire statement just doesn't make any sense.

That note was not intended to be cryptic. It was a brief heads up, as an aside, but perhaps too brief. Sorry.

Let me clarify.

Anthony Johnson is being touted as a "traditional PG" which in Dallas conjures up visions of Steve Nash, fancy passes, fast breaks, and lots of assists. I was trying to tell you that if you are one of those expecting that sort of game from AJ, I believe you will be incredibly disappointed.

How is he like JET and DA? In the mold of both, he can get the ball up the floor. In the mold of JET he can score at times and has a much better offensive game than DA (though you are correct in noting he wont be a primary offensive threat). In the mold of DA he can play some defense too (bigger than DA, which will help, but probably not quite as good defensively). Like DA, he wont be particularly fast. Like both, he wont be a fast-break igniter. Like both, his passes will tend to be efficient rather than be classic basket-creators, and his assists-per-minute will be about the same as we see from the others.

He will just be a general PG-type, who can help with the ball-handling and play a bit of defense and do a bit of scoring and pass the ball a bit. He'll play and will mostly be solid. A good backup. But my sense is that - from too much oversell by the Mavs and from writers who havent done their homework - many Dallas fans are really anticipating he will be the second coming in Dallas of Kidd or Nash, and unfortunately thats nowhere near the truth.

Thanks for reading.

DL

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Male23Dan

When Darrell was really good, he was definitly more like Terry/Bibby than Nash... Definitely. I would say that your opinion of him now is blinded by his recent lack of abilities, but when he was with Orlando, he was Terry-lite.

But wouldn't you say he was more of a slasher, than a shooter? If he's just trying to say that Terry and Armstrong are scoring guards, then fine. But their overall style of play was quite of bit different, at least if you look at how Terry has played since he got here.

Beyond that, I still completely disagree with the characterization of AJ as a scoring guard. I'm not sure I could disagree more.

[Male30Dan]

AJ is definitely a distributor... No one here I think is arguing that; however, Armstrong and Terry are more score first PGs that truly fit into that combo-guard mold. Regarding how they scored, I wasn't referring to that. Terry can take it to the hole pretty damn well too thiggy...

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by DLord

That note was not intended to be cryptic. It was a brief heads up, as an aside, but perhaps too brief. Sorry.

Let me clarify.

Anthony Johnson is being touted as a "traditional PG" which in Dallas conjures up visions of Steve Nash, fancy passes, fast breaks, and lots of assists. I was trying to tell you that if you are one of those expecting that sort of game from AJ, I believe you will be incredibly disappointed.

How is he like JET and DA? In the mold of both, he can get the ball up the floor. In the mold of JET he can score at times and has a much better offensive game than DA (though you are correct in noting he wont be a primary offensive threat). In the mold of DA he can play some defense too (bigger than DA, which will help, but probably not quite as good defensively). Like DA, he wont be particularly fast. Like both, he wont be a fast-break igniter. Like both, his passes will tend to be efficient rather than be classic basket-creators, and his assists-per-minute will be about the same as we see from the others.

He will just be a general PG-type, who can help with the ball-handling and play a bit of defense and do a bit of scoring and pass the ball a bit. He'll play and will mostly be solid. A good backup. But my sense is that - from too much oversell by the Mavs and from writers who havent done their homework - many Dallas fans are really anticipating he will be the second coming in Dallas of Kidd or Nash, and unfortunately thats nowhere near the truth.

Thanks for reading.

DL

Ok, now I see what you were getting at. And I completely agree. AJ is nothing close to a fancy, or even highly skilled PG.

He's a consistent player, does most things in a solid way, does nothing above average.

I was just worried that you were making the case that he was a scoring guard, which I haven't seen at from his time at New Jersey and Indy. In fact, if someone had ever tried to tell me that Anthony Johnson would score 40 points in a playoffs game I would have had him committed.

[grndmstr_c]

Johnson's obviously not going to come in and look like Jason Kidd, but his stats don't really fit the mold of JT either - there's a wide enough gulf in style of play between those two extremes that there's plenty of room for Johnson to lean towards the scoring point side but still be a capable setup man. I think he'll be a solid backcourt partner with Terry in particular, as much for his size on defense as for his ability to set JT up for open jumpers.

The thing that resonates most strongly with me about this article is the section about positional fits, though it would have been nice if Lord would have gone into a bit more detail on specifically how Avery's system blurs the guard positions and sets the SF apart - my suspicion is that it has a fair bit to do with the roll of the guards in the multiple screens that the offense often employs.

[sike]

DLord said: "A good backup. But my sense is that - from too much oversell by the Mavs and from writers who havent done their homework - many Dallas fans are really anticipating he will be the second coming in Dallas of Kidd or Nash, and unfortunately thats nowhere near the truth."
"many fans" really? I find that interesting that not one fan I've talked to has had anywhere near this expectation for AJ. I'd give Mavs fans and in this case even the writers, (and I'm not one to usually do that) a bit more credit than that, DLord...they don't expect a career "solid player" to be Kidd or Nash...or even JT from what I hear. Maybe you just spend too much time talking to dumb Mavs fans welcome to D-M... "The Place Where Mavs Passion Meets Reason"

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by sike

welcome to D-M... "The Place Where Mavs Passion Meets Reason"

Just be careful the subject matter. The voice of reason often rhymes with treason around these parts...

But yeah, sikeymonkey, I thought the same thing when I read that. Who the hecks expects that out of Johnson? Heck, most Mavs fans probably don't even know anything about his game.

Now, that said, I would be more than happy if the Mavs could find a serviceable three-guard rotation along the lines of Blackman, Harper, and Davis in the olden days. If Harris can participate in that, and Johnson can be the third man, it would be nice.

[Big Shot Rob]

Mavs are stacked like hell at every position. Avery has done an incredible job.