Here are several reasons why I think the Mavs have the edge in this series:
1. 4 vs 1. Thats four all-star caliber players on the Mavs vs Duncan. The Mavs sent two to the all-star game but NVE and Fin are all-star caliber. Someone said that if you were to remove the top players on each team, the Mavs would beat the Spurs. Robinsion was an all-star and probably one of the greatest of all time but he is in his decline. Parker is good but he's too inconsistent.
2. Dirk vs Duncan. It is a known fact that Duncan is unstoppable on the blocks (or close to it). I think Dirk is getting close to that kind of status. In fact, I think Dirk is even deadlier since he has a more well rounded offensive game. People will say that Duncan defends better but I think Dirk isn't a slouch in that department too. Another thing about this matchup is that the Mavs have several people that they can throw at Duncan (Najera, Raef and Bradley). The Spurs have no one that adequately matches up to Dirk. The closest on will probably be Rose since he is tough. The point is that the Spurs don't have that gangly 6'10 - 7'0 guy that can slow down Dirk. Also, Dirk is a better free throw shooter. Mavs can double or triple team Duncan and take away his low post game.
3. Duncan's supporting cast needs more experience. Don't get me wrong. Ginobili, Parker and Jackson are good players but I feel that they don't have the experience yet. Ginobili is a rookie. Parker and Claxton are both sophomores. Jackson has 3 years. In the end, I think this inexperience will play a key role in the series. Especially away from home, I think the role players of the Spurs won't play as well.
4. Mark Cuban and destiny. For some reason and this is an intangible, I think MC is just one of those guys who are just lucky. He's the type of guy that if you associate with him, he gets the job done. He makes good decisions. They got rid of Booth. Booth hasn't contributed to the Sonics. Mark got Howad which then got us Nick and Raef. Then he didn't trade Nick. I just feel that Cuban is a winner and its contagious.
There are other factors in the Mavs favor like HCA (for now), two gritty 7 game series wins (for confidence), free throw shooting % but I think those are what the Mavs have over the Spurs.
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If you keep doing what you're doing, you'll keep getting what you're getting
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