The Case for Marbury? DA' Statistics Don't Lie

[birdsanctuary]

Marbury is one hell of a risk. Now that was said about the role given to NVE, the same was said about Stack, and even KVH to a lesser degree, all pretty much came in and showed the critics wrong.

1st Do the Mavs have a problem at the PG spot? I would argue yes, here are the stats from 82games.com
Net Production by Position
Position.....FGA.....eFG%......FTA......iFG....Reb ......Ast......T/O......Blk......PF......Pts.....PER*
PG..............-4.2......+.037......-1.0.....-1%.....-1.8.....-1.2......0.8.....0.6......-2.8....-4.8.....-3.9
SG.............-2.6.......+.069......-3.0......0%.....-3.2.....-0.4......0.4.....-0.4.....1.2....-3.4.....-1.5
SF..............4.0........-.035......-0.4......10%....0.6.......1.6.....-0.8....-0.6....-0.8.....2.4.....+1.7
PF..............3.0........+.022.....2.6.......-13%...2.8.......-1.2....-0.8....-0.8....-0.4.....6.0.....+3.6
C...............0.8........+.036......-0.6......-1%....1.4.......-0.2......0.2......0.6.....-0.2.....0.8.....+2.3
*when comparing the team's production to the opponent production you can learn whether the team has been getting a net positive or negative overall contribution from that position.

Analysis: The statistics show that the Mavs are getting positive production from the front line, negative net production from the SG and PG position. With Stack's healthy return the SG negative PER should rise. However the -3.9 PER is alarming, given the fact that our Starting PG, JET and #2 Devin are seeing significant minutes.


How valuable is Marbury? Comprehensive descrepancy stats from 82games.com
Marbury 05-06
Is Marbury the answer, or is he a defensive liability? The stats below seem to suggest that on the court he impacts the team production negatively, but when he's off the court the negative effect jumps tremendously, leading to an overal positive effect on the team when he's on the court. This could mean that Marbury is a detriment to any team or it could mean that the NYN are just so horrible when's he's in they can't help but stink it up.


Player On Court Off Court Team Net
...............................+/-...............+/-..................+/-
Marbury.................-5.7..............-17.9.............+12.2

Marbury on Defense? Is he better than what the Mavs have now? How about in comparison to other top PG's in the league. Here are the stats on player defense per 100 possessions.

Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
.................................................. ........On Court.......Off Court........Team Net
S. Marbury........................................... 100.4...............99.5.............+0.9
Nash.............................................. ......116.8...............93.5.............+23.4
Wade.............................................. .....104.1..............103.7............+0.5
Kidd.............................................. .......106.3...............117.7............-11.4
Bibby............................................. .......112.6..............100.0............+12.6
MAVS
Terry............................................. ......104.3..............104.5.............-0.2
Harris............................................ ......102.2.............105.3.............-3.1
Armstrong......................................... ..110.5.............103.3.............+7.2

What the stats seem to show is that Marbury's not a defensive liability, but he's no defensive stalwart either. He has a barely positive effect on his team's defense. I was surprised to see Kidd and Nash's stats. [Correction/edit] The statistics show what we already know that Kidd is a solid defender while Nash's teams allow fewer points when he's off the court. The limited statistics seem to show that Harris is better defensively than Terry, that does seem to support what we are observing. [correction/edit]

Remember these stats are purely based on this year, and over time the numbers tend to balance out more. I'd guess Wade's +.9 team net effect will rise as will Kidd's drop. Still they are a good indicator as to what's going on right now.



What's the answer?

Below are the on/off court descrepancies for all of the PG options the Mavs have. I threw in Dirk so you could have a comparision. I dont' think anyone would argue about Dirk's value to the team on and off the court, so now you can see statistically, what we all see game to game. Harris' stats seem to indicate what we all see, an almost positive effect when on the court and when pulled a slight positve effect when the Terry returns. I don't think Marbury is the answer, I'd prefer to keep what we have.

Statistically the answer appears to be Armstrong. His net positive effect on the court is significantly higher than Terry's +4.0. New York wants Armstrong, or are rumored to want DA, why just look at the net positive effect when he's on the court. He also has a solid defensive positive effect per 100 possessions; he's not as good statistically on D compared to JET and Devin, but he's better defensively than Nash and Bibby, which isn't saying a whole lot, but DA is averaging 9.3 Assists per 48 minutes and an assist to turnover ratio of 7.0. JET is getting 6.3 Asst. per 48 minutes with 2.1 A/TO ratio. Devin has 3.6 Asst. per 48 with a .3 TO/A ratio. Shouldn't this alone dictate more minutes?

The stats also show that when DA's off the court there isn't a terribly negative effect, the stats seem to clearly show that when DA is on the court he has a significantly positive effect. We all know he receives meager minutes in Avery's rotation, so the statistics appear to show that virually every minute he's on the court he makes a positve effect. Heck the guy single handedly turned the PHX game around in the 3rd quarter, but can a 37 year old point guard play 20-30 minutes per game running this team? It'd certainly make an interesting year. [/b]


Player...............On Court.........Off Court..........Team Net
..............................+/-..................+/-....................+/-
Nowitzki...............+11.2.............-28.1...............+39.3
Armstrong.........+16.4.............-1.6.................+18.0
Terry....................+2.4...............-1.6...................+4.0
Harris...................-0.6...............+1.7...................-2.3

[grndmstr_c]

The Case for Marbury? Statistics Don't Lie

...but statisticians do. You're using stats (including +/- stats) from this year alone to try to make an argument about these players. Dp you realize how little predictive validity any statistics (especially +/- ones) have at this point in the season? Basically none. The sample sizes aren't large enough, and therefore the entire statistical foundation for your argument is worthless.

Beyond that you're not even correctly interpreting the stats you are using. Take a good look at those defensive +/- number you posted. You're read on them is exactly the opposite the correct one. The way 82games formats their pages a positive defensive net is a bad thing. DA's overall excellent net at this point is actually due to his massively positive offensive net, and in spite of the fact that the team has allowed 7.2 points MORE per 100 posessions with him on court than off.

Now all that aside, if your basic point is that Marbury is better than any of our other pg's on the roster right now, I won't argue (assuming he's healthy). I'm just not in love with him as an option: 1) because a more complete sampling of the available evidence does suggest that he's a rather poor defender, 2) because he's never been accused of having a great attitude, and 3) because he's one of the most overpaid players in the league. Add it up and I just wouldn't be willing to give up much to get him.

[birdsanctuary]

My take was play DA more....but oh well, reading the stats corrrectly as you've indicated show he's clearly a detriment to the team defensively compared to Devin and Terry.

I did attempt to address the problem with sample size, when I said that as the year goes on these numbers will tend to stabilize either down or up. Still you have to admit that these numbers will not radically change... ie. Kidd's not going to have a net effect of -11.4 and then go to +11.4, 40 games from now.

My overall point was that DA has an overall positive effect on the team, even if he's not as solid as Terry and Devin on Defense. I believe I was interpreting the overall net effect of the PG and SG position correctly, and this shows that the Mavs are struggling at these positions. [b] Before trading for a PG the Mavs should consider handing the PG duties over to DA and Devin in that order, or just suck it up and play Devin and DA half a game each. Devin starts and plays Q1, and Q3. DA plays Q2 and Q4.

I believe I only erred in the interpretation of the defensive statistics, but feel free to correct me.

[grndmstr_c]

Edited to reflect your edit.

Here's the thing. While in some cases the stats may not change much (Kidd's likely to have a good defensive and overall +/- when the year is over), in other cases they're likely to change quite a bit (Nash's overall +/- is horrible right now which is unusual for him, and DA's net impact last year was exactly the opposite of what it's been this year, as he was the team's best defensive point guard but was considerably behind Terry in terms of offensive impact). So it's sort of empty to say that it's early and they may change. They're just not worth discussing AT ALL right now if you're trying to predict how a player will look at the end of the year. If you want to engage in that sort of argument (which you apparently do) use stats from previous years as the basis for it.

[birdsanctuary]

Ok, fair enough, GM-C here are more statistics from NBA.com and 82games that seem to support a larger role for DA. And shifting Terry exclusively as a SG.

Per 48 minutes 04-05 (NBA.com)
.......................AP48.........TO/A
Terry................8.6............2.66
Armstrong........8.6............2.92
Harris...............6.9.............2.06

Analysis
Statistically, it's a dead heat between Terry and Armstrong for Assists... DA has the advantage with slightly fewer turnovers over the complete year.

Defense: Pts per 100 Poss. (82 Games.com)
.............................................On Court...Off...............Net
Armstrong..............................104.5...... .104.9...........-0.4
Harris......................................106.7. ......104.1...........+2.6
Terry.......................................105.0. ......104.7...........+0.3

Analysis
Defensively in 04-05, Armstrong's impact was not statistically significant compared Terry, but it seems to show that last year defense was slightly better when DA was on the court compared to JET. But DA's D was statistically more significant than Harris.

On Court/Off Court Effect
.............................On Court............Off............Net
Armstrong................+0.4.............+6.6.... .......-6.2
Harris.......................-1.4..............+8.8...........-10.2
Terry........................+9.3..............+0. 2...........+9.2

Analysis
Here is where Terry has a significant edge, but it still supports redefining his role. JET does have a positive effect when he's on the court. I'm not arguing to dump him or trade him at this point, I just want him to get the brunt of the minutes with Stack. Christie can pick up junk time minutes at the 1 & 2. And as good as Stack is taking to the basket, he could float down and pick up some minutes at the 3.


04-05 Net Production by Position (Team Production-Opponent Production)
Position.....FGA.....eFG%......FTA......iFG....Reb ......Ast......T/O......Blk......PF......Pts.....PER*
PG............-2.8.....+.074.....-0.5.......0%...-1.2.......0.0.......0.6......0.1....-0.3....-0.9....+2.5
SG............-0.1.....+.011......0.4.......-4%...-0.5.....-0.2......0.1.....-0.3.....0.3.....0.8....+1.3
SF.............1.0.......-.009......-0.1.......3%...0.4.....-0.8........0.6.....-0.1.....0.7.....0.5....+1.4
PF.............2.7.......+.028......1.3......-13%..0.5.....-0.0.......0.4......0.5.....0.9.....5.2.....+6.0
C.............-1.0.......-.005.......1.2.......-1%...0.6.....-0.3.......0.2......0.5.....-0.7....0.1.....+0.9

Anlysis[b]
I think last year's stats pretty well speak to what we know about that season. The Mavs have a great player in Dirk, but needed a bit of help at the C spot behind Damp. The Stats seem to support more help at the SG spot, Fin's departure, Christie's addition, and Stack's injury haven't helped that issue any. The Statistics show that overall JET had a positive effect on the team as the PG, the +.074 efficiency percentage for shooting is excellent, however a 0.0 effect in Assists is pretty weak, and that problem hasn't gone away.

My take is that the stats show an overwhelming positive effect with JET on the floor as a shooter not as a passer or a defender. The stats for 05-06 & 04-05 don't seem to support Harris as the #2 option. The stats seem to show that DA is a reasonably good alternative; a far better one than trading off young talent with the potential risk of bringing in a solution that could be detrimental to the team (ie. Marbury or Francis).

Can't Avery give DA a shot?

I want the Mavs to win it all and it certainly seems that championship teams get more assists than their opponents. Currently the Mavs are only averaging more Assists than Orlando and NYN. All of the last 6 champions got more assists than their opponents. 04-05 Spurs, 03-04 Pistons, 02-03 Spurs, 01-02 Lakers, 00-01 Lakers, 99-00 Lakers. I think it's a characteristic of a championship team.
[b]

[grndmstr_c]

I don't see anything in those stats that supports shifting JT to sg. His assist rate as a pg was solid last year (only Knight, Kidd, and Nash were significantly better - that is, averaged more than ~ one assist per 48 minutes more than JT - than he was as a starter, if memory serves), his assist to bad pass ratio was an outstanding 4.7, he had his best +/- at the position, and he played pg in what was statistically one of the top 2 starting lineups in the NBA (going on lineup +/- and win/loss %).

As for DA, his role as a rarely used energy and defense guy off the bench is just about perfect, IMO.

[birdsanctuary]

Well at least we both agree about Marbury.

[Five-ofan]

Bad idea to use any of the 82games.com stats to get in an argument with C. He is the king of those stats. About DA vs JET last year playing pg, assists vs T/os isnt the only thing that a pg needs to be judged by. Just use the general offensive on court plus minus stats and you get a general idea of how they are playing. That said as has been said many times through 5 or 6 games those stats are basically worthless. Through 40 they begin to be meaningful but so far its just too small a sample size.

[jayC]

The only other guy to average 20 points and 8 assists a game is Oscar Robinson. He had a huge efficiency rating last year. The Marbury , Dirk pick and roll could be fun.

[AxdemxO]

Marbury suks...You guys would rather have him thn Francis...now come on....

[Five-ofan]

HELLLLLLLLL YESSSSSSSSS i would rather have him than francis. Other than jump francis does NOTHING better than marbury. Marbury also happens to have an iq higher than the number on his jersey.

[AxdemxO]

Well just look at the size of his head...But Marbury is much more selfish and if i remember correctly a "self proclaimed best pg in the NBA"....Now seriously.....He maybe barely makes the top 10. Francis is much more athletic and i think Francis and Dirk make a better combo than Marbury and Dirk. Marbury has not had any success in his career and has had much better team-mates than Francis......I would still take Terry over both ..but if i had to choose it would b Francis.

[Five-ofan]

Marbury is DEFINITELY A TOP 10 pg. Marbury is a better scorer, passer, shooter, runner of an offense, basically anything to do with offense than francis. Francis is a little better defender. Marbury is also the second best pick and roll pg in the nba behind nash. I would definitely take him over terry and the franchise. However, we arent getting either of them because it would take KVHs contract to get him and Isiah wont take KVH back. You did not just say marbury is more selfish. That is one of the most uninformed statements I have heard in a while. Marbury has had just as much success as Francis has and I dont think Marbury has had much more talent around him.

[alby]

Originally Posted by jayC

The only other guy to average 20 points and 8 assists a game is Oscar Robinson. He had a huge efficiency rating last year. The Marbury , Dirk pick and roll could be fun.

you got that from quite frankly today didnt you =]

[alby]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

Marbury is DEFINITELY A TOP 10 pg. Marbury is a better scorer, passer, shooter, runner of an offense, basically anything to do with offense than francis. Francis is a little better defender. Marbury is also the second best pick and roll pg in the nba behind nash. I would definitely take him over terry and the franchise. However, we arent getting either of them because it would take KVHs contract to get him and Isiah wont take KVH back. You did not just say marbury is more selfish. That is one of the most uninformed statements I have heard in a while. Marbury has had just as much success as Francis has and I dont think Marbury has had much more talent around him.

marbury is a top 5 pg
and may even be a top 10 guard
hes just been a loser his whole career, he should reunite with KG.

[Five-ofan]

I have no clue about this but just off the top of my head magic? I know that this is for a career and not just one season because Iverson average like 30 and 8 last year. Im also pretty sure kidd had a 20-9.9 or something season. I will now go look this up.

[Five-ofan]

I know marbury is a top 5 pg. TO say francis is better is just unfair to marbury.

[AxdemxO]

I hate whn people contredict thmselves...Everyone is saying that we dont need a player that is a cancer on the team yet many want Marbury. Marbury was traded frm Minn. because he said he could not play wit KG..wht makes every1 think he would play wit Dirk.
Talk about a self absorbed player.

[Five-ofan]

He didnt say he couldnt play with KG. He said he wanted to get paid like kg did. At the time he was better than KG. They didnt handle the situation well at all. You are talking about Francis who is more of a cancer than Marbury. BTW on the 20 and 8 thing, Magic averaged 19.5 and 11. Isiah averaged 19.2 and 9. Im sure there r some others i should look up but those were my best 2 guesses as to who whould be close. Magic would have without the comeback.

[AxdemxO]

Ok...ok....I give up....maybe i just dont like Marbury..but idk..i just dont think it would b a good idea to bring him to Dallas.

[alby]

who would want to stay in Minnesota anyways.

[Five-ofan]

If you dont get rid of KVH it would be. The years they are on the same team are disaster. But Minny had already paid KG and couldnt afford to pay Marbury too. He came to Minn as a 19 year old rookie and had the following averages for 3 years in minny.
Pts asts rebs fg% Stls Ft%
15.8 7.8 2.7 .408 1.00 .727
17.7 8.6 2.8 .415 1.27 .731
17.7 9.3 3.4 .408 1.61 .724

So as a guy who was 22 and averaging 17.7 and 9.3 he wanted to get paid. I dont think that is illogical. He continued to dominate after the trade. averaging 23.4 and 8.7 on 44% shooting. Id say he was right that he deserved to be paid. KG was averagin 20 and 10 that year which was the year he caught marbury but for them to tell marbury that he wasnt worth close to what KG was when they were about even as players is a slap to a players ego that very few could take. Its also why kg has no one to blame but himself for having no help.

[AxdemxO]

In Minn. they were prolly thinkin bout the future...I think they made the rite decision..because IMO Marbury now is not even close to KG.

[Five-ofan]

Oh dont get me wrong, I completely agree they made the right decision if they could only have 1 or the other but they could have kept both if a) they didnt overpay garnett b) they ponied up and paid Marbury. That is a dang nice use of consecutive draft picks though. That team should have been SO awesome.

[Arne]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

HELLLLLLLLL YESSSSSSSSS i would rather have him than francis. Other than jump francis does NOTHING better than marbury. Marbury also happens to have an iq higher than the number on his jersey.

hehe