Decisive days... - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

Sportstudi · 04-13-2009, 09:22 AM

Two interesting articles...

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Much to be decided in NBA season’s final days
Teams trying to move up in seedings, avoid dangerous matchups
By Ira Winderman
NBCSports.com

Apparently, eighty games is not enough.

At least that's the case when it comes to this season's races for playoff seeding.

The final Monday of the season matters, as will the final Tuesday.

Heck, closing night on Wednesday could be a by-the-numbers exercise on who plays where and when as the playoffs open this coming weekend.

With that in mind, we offer a look at the games that still matter and run through the permutations.

What we know for sure right now is this:

In the Eastern Conference, the top five seeds are settled, with Cleveland No. 1, Boston No. 2, Orlando No. 3, Atlanta No. 4 and Miami No. 5. Beyond that, Philadelphia, Chicago and Detroit are in, with their positioning at Nos. 6-8 still be to be determined. The only set playoff matchup is Atlanta hosting the Heat in the best-of-seven first round.

In the West, the Lakers at locked into No. 1. From there, Denver, Houston, Portland and San Antonio are fighting for seed Nos. 2-5, with New Orleans, Dallas and Utah also guaranteed playoff berths, in a fight for seeds Nos. 6-8.

Monday

Cleveland at Indiana: Even with the Lakers defeating the Grizzlies on Sunday night, the Cavaliers' magic number for clinching the overall top playoff seed is one. Win this one and everyone gets to rest until the playoffs, with Ben Wallace then getting the opportunity to work his way back with some valuable minutes.

Securing homecourt in a potential NBA Finals against the Lakers could be considered somewhat of a priority, considering Kobe & Co. stand as the lone opponent to win in Cleveland this season.

Chicago at Detroit: Consider it the who-doesn't-want-to-face Cleveland bowl, with the loser looking at a first-round series against LeBron and his increasingly supportive cast.

Should the Pistons lose, they would be locked, at 42 losses, into the No. 8 seed in the East, since they lost the season series 2-1 to Philadelphia and enter Monday night down 2-1 in the season series to Chicago.

A Pistons victory, however, could have seeds Nos. 6-8 in play until Wednesday's finales.

From a television perspective, there is something to be said about first-round intrigue between the fading Pistons and rising Cavaliers.

Minnesota at Dallas: The goal for the Mavericks and anyone else in the Nos. 6-8 race in the West clearly is avoiding Kobe and the Lakers in the first round. That means avoiding No. 8.

To that end, Sunday's loss to the Hornets certainly didn't help. Dallas is one game up on No. 8 Utah, with the teams having split their four-game season series. Utah, however, holds an insurmountable lead in the second tiebreaker, conference record.

This game with the 'Wolves is huge for Dallas for so many reasons. Because New Orleans sealed the season series with Sunday's victory, Dallas would have to win its remaining two and New Orleans would have to lose its remaining two for the Mavericks to rise to No. 6.

New Orleans at Houston: A game that matters for both sides, but a little more for the Rockets.

The best New Orleans can do is No. 6 in the West, which means opening on the road against an opponent at No. 3 that likely won't be determined until Wednesday. That opponent very well could be Houston, so don't expect New Orleans to show much in this one.

The Rockets not only are tied with San Antonio for the Southwest lead, but also finished the season series tied 2-2 with the Spurs. That would bring it down to the next tiebreaker of division record (since the teams are in the same division).

Considering the Spurs close against the Hornets, New Orleans well could determine the division champion.

L.A. Clippers at Utah: At least it's not a road game for the Jazz. At this point, Jerry Sloan can't take too many more of those.

At 47-33, the Jazz have to find a way to extricate themselves from No. 8. It won't be easy with the season finale coming on the road against the Lakers.

Trailing the Mavericks by one game for No. 7 in the West, Utah does have the advantage of holding the tiebreaker against Dallas by virtue of a superior conference record.

Sacramento at Denver: The Nuggets control their own fate when it comes to No. 2 in the West, but it could come down to winning out, with this a huge one.

Denver has to be careful, as it already has lost the tiebreaker to the Rockets.

The Nuggets, though, do hold the tiebreaker against both the Spurs (2-1 season series) and Trail Blazers (division record). A win here would, at worst, lock up the Northwest Division for the Nuggets.

Oklahoma City at Portland: While Denver could wrap up the division with a win earlier in the night, the Blazers still would have plenty to play for, including potential homecourt advantage over the Southwest runner-up in the first round.

The Blazers hold the tiebreaker over San Antonio, but not over Houston.

Homecourt in the first round for the Blazers? Who would have thought?

San Antonio at Golden State: Yes, seeding matters for the Spurs, but not as much as nursing Tim Duncan back to the top of his game, which is why Duncan was given Sunday off in the tougher-than-expected victory at Sacramento.

Considering the timing of this game, the Spurs well could play the results of the Rockets and Blazers games to see if there is a dire need to push Duncan, who is expected to play.

Tuesday

Boston at Philadelphia: The 76ers' desperation, beyond their current five-game losing streak, likely will be a factor of the Bulls-Pistons results the night earlier.

If Detroit loses Monday to Chicago and is locked into No. 8, the 76ers will know that their playoff fate can't involve the Cavaliers.

Considering the way Boston went through the motions Sunday in Cleveland, and considering Kevin Garnett is not expected back for this one for Boston, Philadelphia just might be able to keep alive its hopes for No. 6 — and a first-round meeting with the Magic instead of the Celtics — for one more night.

Remember, the 76ers do hold the tiebreaker on the Bulls by virtue of superior conference record.

Utah at L.A. Lakers: Should the Cavaliers win Monday in Indiana, the Lakers will have nothing to play for here, having been eliminated for a shot at homecourt in the Finals but also being locked into No. 1 in the West.

Utah had better hope so, in light of its dreary 15-25 road record.

The irony here is with a victory, the Jazz would finish 2-1 against the Lakers, yet a victory also could help Utah avoid opening against the Lakers in the first round.

Wednesday

Detroit at Miami: There are several scenarios where Detroit could be locked into No. 8 in the East at this point. But there also are a few that could leave an escape hatch open to avoid Cleveland in the first round. There might not be much resistance in this one, especially with the Heat already locked into No. 5 in the East.

New Orleans at San Antonio: Games such as these are why it won't be much before midnight in the East before anyone has a clue about the West seedings. This very well could have seeding significance to both teams. The Spurs trail 2-1 in the season series.

Houston at Dallas: Ditto. We're talking last place in the West and potentially first place in the Southwest. The Rockets lead the season series 2-1. This one figures to be as insane as Ron Artest.

Philadelphia at Cleveland: Unless it slips up Monday in Indiana, Cleveland figures to have the top playoff seed locked up by this one. But there is that temptation to try to match the all-time record for homecourt success. For the second night in a row, Philadelphia finds its seeding hopes at the whim of how hard its superior-but-locked-in opponent chooses to play.

Toronto at Chicago: Remember, Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker on the Bulls by virtue of conference record, so Chicago figures to have something a stake here in the quest to elude the Cavaliers and Celtics in the first round. But also remember that the Bulls stand among the league's hottest teams at home.

Denver at Portland : At worst, the Blazers could have a shot at homecourt advantage in the first round here, even if Denver has wrapped up the Northwest. This figures to stand as far more important to Portland.

_____________________________

West: Seeds 6, 7 and 8

By Ryan Schwan
TrueHoop Network

As the regular season enters its final three days, the Western Conference playoff picture is anything but set, with seeds two through eight still in play. Though the race for seeds two through four and home-court advantage in the first round remains compelling, there is a drama developing at the bottom of the pack as three teams fight to stay out of the eighth and final seed and a first-round date with the powerhouse Lakers.

All three teams have exactly two games remaining, but the team at the top, New Orleans, has two tough road games against Houston and San Antonio remaining, while both Dallas and Utah have a somewhat easier pair of games left. Utah also owns tiebreakers against both teams above them, further complicating the picture. The teams in question:

Currently sixth seed: New Orleans Hornets(49-31)
Remaining schedule: At Rockets, at San Antonio
Wins tiebreaker vs. Dallas having won the season series 3-1
Loses tiebreaker vs. Utah having lost the season series 3-0

Currently seventh seed: Dallas Mavericks(48-32)
Remaining schedule: Minnesota, Houston
Loses tiebreaker vs. Hornets having lost the season series 3-1
Loses tiebreaker vs. Utah by having a worse conference record (currently 32-18 to 27-23 with no way to make up the difference)

Currently eighth seed: Utah Jazz (47-33)
Remaining schedule: Clippers, at Lakers
Wins tiebreaker vs. Dallas by having a better conference record
Wins tiebreaker vs. New Orleans having won the season series 3-0.

Though the three teams only have two games left, the possible outcomes of those games combine to form 27 different final records for the three teams in question. In an effort to handicap the race, here's a fast and dirty breakdown of how each of those 27 scenarios treat each team:

The Hornets have a clear advantage, owning the tiebreaker over the Mavericks and a two-game lead over the Jazz. Out of those 27 possible combinations, only one ends with the Hornets in the eighth seed, and a mere four end with the Hornets holding the seventh seed. Really, all the Hornets have to do to avoid the Lakers is win one game -- or have the Jazz or Mavericks lose one.

The Mavericks, despite their one-game advantage over Utah, have to deal with the fact that they will lose the tiebreaker with either of their opponents. There are only three possible outcomes where they can take the sixth seed, 15 where they take the seventh, and nine where they fall to eighth. In the end, however, they can still control whether they avoid the dreaded date in Hollywood by simply winning as many games as the Jazz do this week.

The Jazz are in the unenviable position of not controlling their own fate. The only way they can gain ground is to have the Mavericks lose at least once, or the Hornets fail spectacularly. As a result, there are only two scenarios where they can take the sixth seed, eight scenarios where they can take the seventh seed, and 17 scenarios in which they remain an eighth seed.

One of the two best scenarios for the Jazz would be if all three teams ended with the exact same record of 49-33. Should that occur, the Hornets would win the tiebreaker over the Mavericks, the Jazz win the tiebreaker over the Hornets, and the seeding would end up with the Jazz in sixth, Hornets in seventh, and Mavericks in eighth. Based on the schedule, this outcome isn't even that far-fetched as the Hornets battle two tough teams fighting for seeding, the Mavericks could easily split games against the Timberwolves and Houston, and the Jazz may be able to take both games as the Clippers prepare to head home and the Lakers already have their seeding locked and may let the visitors steal one.

Stay tuned.

To read more from Schwan, check out his TrueHoop Network blog, Hornets247.com.

mavs777 · 04-13-2009, 05:39 PM

New Orleans not show much? Their offense is pretty simple its self pick and roll Paul and West, throwing back door lobs to Tyson, and running screens for Peja and Rasual butler. Like the Mavs they keep the offensive sets simple

Zki41 · 04-13-2009, 06:05 PM

If it came down to it - I'm sure Houston would consider throwing it's game against us in order to play us if that's possible, as opposed to Utah or New Orleans. Houston would do anything to avoid Utah, and the worst we do the better chance Utah has of seeing the Rockets in round 1.

MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs · 04-13-2009, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zki41

If it came down to it - I'm sure Houston would consider throwing it's game against us in order to play us if that's possible, as opposed to Utah or New Orleans. Houston would do anything to avoid Utah, and the worst we do the better chance Utah has of seeing the Rockets in round 1.

They're tied for the division lead. There's no way they'd throw a game and lose the division just to play us. Winning your division is one of a team's top goals in the regular season.

mavs777 · 04-13-2009, 10:25 PM

No way Houston ends up in the 3 seed with a loss

mavErika · 04-13-2009, 11:32 PM

thought the first part of the second article is interesting and fun to read, too:

Quote:

West: Seeds 3, 4 and 5
By Graydon Gordian
TrueHoop Network

Editor's note: Denver is currently in second place in the West, but there are various scenarios that could cause them to lose the 2-seed. For this article, we are assuming that Denver finishes second and focusing on the three teams currently tied for third in the West.

As I write this, the Spurs, Rockets and Blazers all possess a 52-28 record. Currently, the Spurs are in the third seed, followed by the Rockets in fourth and the Blazers in fifth. But if all three teams win their remaining two games, all three will finish in a different position. Let's see if we can make sense of this.

Currently 3rd: San Antonio Spurs (52-28)
Remaining Schedule: At Golden State, vs. Hornets

Currently 4th: Houston Rockets (52-28)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Hornets, at Dallas

Currently 5th: Portland Trail Blazers (52-28)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Thunder, vs. Nuggets

The Nuggets need only win one game to win their division. But if the Blazers, Rockets and Spurs win out, all four teams will be tied (the Blazers play their final game against the Nuggets). In that instance, both the Rockets and Denver would be division champs. Houston won the season series 3-1, so Houston would be the 2 seed and Denver would be the 3 seed. The Spurs would fall to fifth, having lost the season series to Portland 3-1.

The Spurs are currently in third because they possess a 9-6 record against the Southwest Division while Houston is only 8-6. But Houston closes the season with two division games. If both teams finish the year 10-6 against division opponents (as well as 36-16 against conference opponents), Houston will win the next tiebreaker, having won more games against Western Conference playoff opponents.

If the Rockets and the Spurs both go 1-1 over their last two, the key is which team the Spurs lose to: If the Spurs lose to New Orleans and both teams finish 53-38, the Rockets will still have the tiebreaker. If the Spurs lose to the Warriors but beat the Hornets, the Spurs will possess the better record against the division. (Remember, any Rockets loss from here on out is a division loss.)

If the Blazers finish with a better record than the Spurs and Rockets (and the Nuggets win the Northwest Division, as expected), they'll secure the 3-seed. But if they tie either, the highest they can finish is fourth. If the Spurs win the Southwest, they'll finish third despite having lost the season series against Portland (division winner is the first tiebreaker; head-to-head is second). If the Rockets lose the division but end up tied with Portland, Houston will still be the fourth seed, having won the season series 2-1.

To read more from Gordian, check out his TrueHoop Network blog, 48 Minutes of Hell.

head-scratchin' all over the western conference...

MavsX · 04-14-2009, 07:33 AM

man this sh** is bananas!

Lor20 · 04-14-2009, 11:21 AM

has the division title ever come down to games against all playoff contenders before?
Obviously I hope that won't happen (since I want the 6 seed to avoid Denver and to get either the Blazers or Spurs)

spreedom · 04-14-2009, 01:25 PM

F 'em all. I just don't want the 8th seed.

Sportstudi · 04-14-2009, 02:26 PM

To cause more headache...

2009 Playoffs scenarios with two days remaining

By NBA.com
Posted Apr 14 2009 11:55AM

Here are the scenarios for the 2009 NBA Playoffs, updated through games of Monday, April 13.
Eastern Conference seeds

1. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
2. BOSTON CELTICS
3. ORLANDO MAGIC
4. ATLANTA HAWKS
5. MIAMI HEAT
6. Chicago or Philadelphia
7. Chicago or Philadelphia
8. DETROIT PISTONS

Western Conference seeds

1. LOS ANGELES LAKERS
2. Denver or Houston
3. Denver, Houston, Portland, or San Antonio
4. Houston, Portland, or San Antonio
5. Houston, Portland, or San Antonio
6. New Orleans, Dallas, or Utah
7. New Orleans, Dallas, or Utah
8. New Orleans, Dallas, or Utah

Note: CAPS locked into seeding.
Eastern Conference scenarios

Chicago will be seeded:

• #6 if Bulls win and Sixers lose one game OR if Sixers lose both of their remaining games.

• #7 if Sixers win remaining two games OR Bulls lose and Sixers win one game.

Philadelphia will be seeded:

• #6 if Sixers win remaining two games OR Bulls lose and Sixers win one of their remaining two games

• #7 if Sixers lose one game and Bulls win OR Sixers lose both of their remaining games.
Western Conference scenarios

Denver will be seeded:

• #2 if Nuggets win OR Rockets lose

• #3 if Nuggets lose and Rockets win

Houston will be seeded:

• #2 if Rockets win and Nuggets lose

• #3 if Rockets win and Nuggets win OR if Spurs and Blazers lose.

• #4 if Rockets lose, Spurs win and Blazers lose OR if Rockets lose, Spurs lose and Blazers win.

• #5 if Rockets lose and Spurs and Blazers win.

Portland will be seeded:

• #3 if Blazers win and Rockets and Spurs lose.

• #4 if Blazers win and either the Rockets or Spurs win (but not both) OR if Blazers and Spurs both lose.

• #5 if Blazers lose and Spurs win.

San Antonio will be seeded:

• #3 if Spurs win and Rockets lose.

• #4 if Spurs win, Rockets win and Blazers lose.

• #5 if Spurs lose OR if Rockets and Blazers win.

New Orleans will be seeded:

• #6 if Hornets win OR if Mavericks and Jazz lose.

• #7 if Hornets lose and either Mavericks or Jazz win (but not both)

• #8 if Hornets lose and Mavericks and Jazz win.

Dallas will be seeded:

• #6 if Mavericks win and Hornets lose.

• #7 if Mavericks win and Hornets win OR if Mavericks lose and Jazz lose.

• #8 if Mavericks lose and Jazz win.

Utah will be seeded:

• #6 if Jazz win and Hornets and Mavericks lose.

• #7 if Jazz win and either the Hornets or Mavericks win (but not both)

• #8 if Jazz lose OR Hornets and Mavericks win.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Unfortunately we won't face Portland. Correct me if I'm wrong, but they need to be 3rd and we in 6th position. But Portland will only be 3rd if the Spurs and the Rockets lose their games. That would lead NO over us. A win by the Spurs and by Portland would give the advantage to the Spurs, 'cause the division tiebreaker counts before the head-to-head tiebreaker. I think that's the result of a change made after last season?

iella · 04-14-2009, 03:01 PM

Wouldn't it be easier to just wait 1.5 days? Then all this speculation becomes meaningless.

I guess that would put some people out of a job, though. :P

left texas · 04-14-2009, 04:44 PM

Just get the regular season over, and see the fate of our beloved Dallas Mavericks!

Lor20 · 04-14-2009, 04:50 PM

just win and hope the spurs win. I don't care if we play the spurs or blazers - I think we have a good shot with either one.

eyedentifyme · 04-14-2009, 06:35 PM

We can't underestimate anyone regardless of who we match with; whether it's the Ginobili-less Spurs, Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets, or the Blazers, since that's what possibly happened to our Mavericks in the 2008 playoffs when we were matched up with the New Orleans Hornets.

Lor20 · 04-14-2009, 07:29 PM

I don't think we underestimated the hornets - who were often ranked second or third in the power rankings on NBA.com - they were simply quite a bit better last year. this year the difference between the 2 and 8 seed is much smaller.

Thomas86 · 04-14-2009, 07:58 PM

MavsX · 04-15-2009, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomas86

hahahaa

MavsX · 04-15-2009, 07:07 AM

man the jazz really fell off huh?

bobatundi · 04-15-2009, 08:56 AM

Updated:

Western Conference seeds

1. LOS ANGELES LAKERS
2. Denver or Houston
3. Denver, Houston, Portland, or San Antonio
4. Houston, Portland, or San Antonio
5. Houston, Portland, or San Antonio
6. New Orleans, Dallas
7. New Orleans, Dallas
8. UTAH

Note: CAPS locked into seeding.
Denver will be seeded:

• #2 if Nuggets win OR Rockets lose

• #3 if Nuggets lose and Rockets win

Houston will be seeded:

• #2 if Rockets win and Nuggets lose

• #3 if Rockets win and Nuggets win OR if Spurs and Blazers lose.

• #4 if Rockets lose, Spurs win and Blazers lose OR if Rockets lose, Spurs lose and Blazers win.

• #5 if Rockets lose and Spurs and Blazers win.

Portland will be seeded:

• #3 if Blazers win and Rockets and Spurs lose.

• #4 if Blazers win and either the Rockets or Spurs win (but not both) OR if Blazers and Spurs both lose.

• #5 if Blazers lose and Spurs win.

San Antonio will be seeded:

• #3 if Spurs win and Rockets lose.

• #4 if Spurs win, Rockets win and Blazers lose.

• #5 if Spurs lose OR if Rockets and Blazers win.

New Orleans will be seeded:

• #6 if Hornets win OR if Mavericks lose.

• #7 if Hornets lose and Mavericks win

Dallas will be seeded:

• #6 if Mavericks win and Hornets lose.

• #7 if Hornets win or Mavericks lose

bobatundi · 04-15-2009, 09:00 AM

So tonight I'm rooting for:

Mavs (obviously)
Spurs
Portland (just in case)

AxdemxO · 04-15-2009, 09:10 AM

Other than the Mavs I am rooting for Utah in the first round. Other than that it doesn't matter much to me

Mavsfan4ever · 04-15-2009, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxdemxO

Other than the Mavs I am rooting for Utah in the first round. Other than that it doesn't matter much to me

I'm with you on this I would love to see the Lakers knocked out in the first round.

alby · 04-15-2009, 09:15 AM

Isn't Pop resting Duncan tonight?

dalmations202 · 04-15-2009, 09:21 AM

If the Spurs lose, they play Houston or Portland. Spurs lose to avoid Dallas that they don't match up as well against, IMO. They really want Portland.

Dallas ends up playing Nuggets or possibly Houston, but most likely the Nuggets.

Den wants the Dal match-up off the bat (Dal doesn't match up well with Den). In the end, it probably doesn't matter what the Mavs do tonight.

Hou wants NO, and will probably get them.

Just a guess, but

LA/Utah
Den/Dal
Hou/NO
SA/Port

with the team listed first coming out on top of the seven game series.

AxdemxO · 04-15-2009, 09:27 AM

All our games against Denver were pretty close, besides one I think. I think if the Mavs go in there and have to play Denver they can beat them if they are focused.

AxdemxO · 04-15-2009, 09:29 AM

I think the Jazz can take the Lakers, in the end I think they wont, but they will give the Lakers a hell of a run IMO. Theres is no way that team goes down easily, even with the recent struggles.

MX425 · 04-15-2009, 10:56 AM

I think Portland wins tonight. What do they have on the line as far as match ups?

Just211 · 04-15-2009, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalmations202

If the Spurs lose, they play Houston or Portland. Spurs lose to avoid Dallas that they don't match up as well against, IMO. They really want Portland.

I think the Spurs would rather win, and get the higher seed. getting homecourt in one, maybe two series, would be more important than trying to avoid the Mavs. honestly, I don't think anyone is avoiding Dallas.
That, and I think the only way to go into the last game is to go for the Win. and let the chips lay where they may. I mean kinda a pussy message to try and avoid anyone. You want to THINK you can take all of them.
That said, I hope Dallas Avoids Rockets and Nuggets

92bDad · 04-15-2009, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxdemxO

All our games against Denver were pretty close, besides one I think. I think if the Mavs go in there and have to play Denver they can beat them if they are focused.

I fear Denver like I feared Golden State...we just don't match up well.

I would rather play Hou, SA or Portland!!!

Underdog · 04-15-2009, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 92bDad

I fear Denver like I feared Golden State...we just don't match up well.

I would rather play Hou, SA or Portland!!!

Agree 100%...

Dirkadirkastan · 04-15-2009, 08:13 PM

Do we match up with Houston? Maybe only if Yao Ming blows out his knee, right? Then again, is that such an unlikely possibility after all?