Playoff position analysis: standings, tiebeaks, the goods.

[tsar]

I'm no Marty McFly with a sports almanac, and this is just to simply put things in perspective. All is coming down to the wire, actually, a hair... a very very thin hair. It's also very possible we will see 3 or even 4 team ties thus bringing the phrase "must win game" to a whole new level. Keep in mind that this is just from my own analysis of the teams and how "I" believe they perform against opponents, back-to-backs, home games, road games, strength of schedule, etc.. I don't believe that I'm right on everything but I do believe that it will be this close.

SPURS: Current Record: 45-23 / 7 of 14 on the road
W Spurs - Rockets
W Spurs - Warriors
L Spurs @ Hawks
W Spurs - Clippers
L Spurs @ Hornets
W Spurs - Thunder
W Spurs @ Pacers
L Spurs @ Cavs
W Spurs @ Thunder
W Spurs - Blazers
W Spurs - Jazz
W Spurs @ Kings
L Spurs @ Warriors
W Spurs - Hornets
Final Record: 55-27

ROCKETS: Current Record: 46-25 / 7 of 11 on the road
L Rockets @ Spurs
L Rockets @ Jazz
W Rockets - Clippers
L Rockets @ Suns
L Rockets @ Lakers
W Rockets - Blazers
L Rockets - Magic
W Rockets @ Kings
W Rockets @ Warriors
W Rockets - Hornets
L Rockets @ Dallas
Final Record: 51-31

NUGGETS: Current Record: 45-25 / 6 of 12 on the road
L Nuggets @ Suns
W Nuggets @ Hornets
L Nuggets @ Dallas
W Nuggets - Warriors
W Nuggets - Knicks
W Nuggets - Jazz
W Nuggets - Clippers
W Nuggets @ Wolves
W Nuggets - Thunder
L Nuggets @ Lakers
W Nuggets - Kings
L Nuggets @ Blazers
Final Record: 53-29

HORNETS: Current Record: 43-25 / 8 of 14 on the road
W Hornets - Warriors
L Hornets - Nuggets
W Hornets @ Knicks
W Hornets - Spurs
W Hornets @ Kings
W Hornets @ Clippers
W Hornets @ Warriors
L Hornets - Jazz
L Hornets @ Heat
W Hornets - Suns
L Hornets @ Dallas
W Hornets - Dallas
L Hornets @ Rockets
W Hornets @ Spurs
Final Record: 52-30

BLAZERS: Current Record: 44-26 / 5 of 12 on the road
W Blazers - Sixers
W Blazers - Suns
W Blazers - Grizzlies
L Blazers - Jazz
W Blazers @ Thunder
L Blazers @ Rockets
W Blazers @ Grizzlies
L Blazers @ Spurs
L Blazers - Lakers
W Blazers @ Clippers
W Blazers - Thunder
W Blazers - Nuggets
Final Record: 52-30

JAZZ: Current Record: 43-26 / 7 of 13 on the road
W Jazz - Rockets
L Jazz @ Suns
W Jazz - Suns
W Jazz - Knicks
W Jazz @ Blazers
L Jazz @ Nuggets
W Jazz - Timberwolves
W Jazz @ Hornets
L Jazz @ Dallas
L Jazz @ Spurs
W Jazz - Warriors
W Jazz - Clippers
L Jazz @ Lakers
Final Record: 51-31

MAVS: Current Record: 42-28 / 4 of 12 on the road
Alright, I'll analyze our team a little bit. We know that we are a very good home team this season, we're 25-8 on the year. Unfortunately we also have the worst conference and divisional records in the top 8: 22-20 and 5-7 respectively. This is a good time to make a push into the top 4 because I believe that if we don't have the home court advantage we will be knocked out in the first round, even the biggest of Mavs homers (including me) can admit to that. Although being a Mavs homer still leaves me a glimmer of hope that we can win at least once on the road against anyone except the Lake show. So let's look at our last 12 games and how we might stack up to the best of the west at the end of the season.

W Mavs - Warriors
W Mavs - Nuggets
L Mavs @ Cavs
W Mavs @ Wolves
W Mavs - Heat
W Mavs @ Grizzlies
L Mavs - Suns
W Mavs - Jazz
W Mavs - Hornets
L Mavs @ Hornets
W Mavs - Wolves
W Mavs - Rockets
Final Record: 51-31

I mean... as inconsistent as the Mavs are I'm trying to paint the best picture possible (I think going 9 of our last 12 is pretty dang good, considering the competition) Also, don't let the number of home games fool you, we have one of the toughest remaining schedules. Now my head hurts because of all the possible tie break implications. This season is even closer than the last.

Spurs: 55-27
Nuggets: 53-29
Hornets: 52-30
Blazers: 52-30
Rockets: 51-31
Jazz: 51-31
Mavs: 51-31

Let's take a look at this, I'm not going to bother to try to analyze and figure out all the tie breaks because it's all just based on predictions, but what I'll do is take a look at the games that matter to the Mavs in these situations. This is how the tie break situations are looking right now, with many important games coming up on our schedule.

Team | W | L
Nuggets: 0-3 (1 game remaining)
Jazz: 1-2 (1 game remaining)
Hornets: 0-2 (2 games remaining)
Rockets: 1-2 (1 game remaining)
Portland: 3-0 (no games remaining)

Not looking too good for our Mavs. Essentially if we win all our games against the Nuggets, Jazz, Hornets and Rockets we still lose our tie breaks with them because of winning percentages vs division and conference. If it does come down to tie breakers let's hope that we are tied with Portland because they are the only team we actually have an advantage over and they have the easiest remaining schedule. I think we can end up anywhere from 3-8 (obviously), realistically though I think we'll be tied down in the 5-8 seeds battling against drawing the Lakers in the first round.

Take this as you may Mavs fans, but I thought I would give my (limited) perspective to the community. Feel free to criticize, correct, analyze

Tidbits for thought
Some good information on current playoff standings and tiebreaks and how they are determined.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html

[tcat075]

Interesting stuff.

Hope you don't mind that I'm paying absolutely no attention to your Maverick predictions. If this season has shown us anything, its that the Mavericks are completely unpredictable.

[Dirkadirkastan]

That must have taken awhile.

[bcrav4]

Good work. You probably underestimated the Rockets though. They just beat the Spurs and are now number 1 in the SW division.

As for the Mavs, like tcat said, the Mavs are a little too unpredictable. They will probably lose at least two more at home IMO.

[Rick41]

How the F are the rockets in 1st, seriously.

[ghazi]

A lot of these games can go either way and which way they go can be the difference between 3rd and 6th for a team, perhaps.


I dont see the Mavs losing to PHX though.

[vRookie]

Originally Posted by Rick41

How the F are the rockets in 1st, seriously.

They play great defense and that will win you games. But I see what you are saying. This team is surprisingly good without TMac

[Rick41]

Gives me more reason to laugh at t-mac, the greatest chance his team has of advancing past the 1st round, and he's not playing HAHA.

[TheMaverick]

I rather have the Rockets be in first than SA. I would love a 1st round showdown against the team from Suckston.

[fluid.forty.one]

We are not 3-1 against Portland.

[Robillion]

Thanks for this.. I asked for it in another thread and you delivered big time. +rep

I am predicting this though:

Lakers
Rockets
Spurs
Denver
Utah
Hornets
Mavericks
Blazers

[chumdawg]

How did that "r" get from the middle of "tiebreaks" all the way to the beginning of the line?

[TheMaverick]

Portland has a bunch of home games left, I don't think they are going to finish behind us. If we're going to jump someone, it's going to be the Jazz.

[tsar]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

How did that "r" get from the middle of "tiebreaks" all the way to the beginning of the line?

I have no clue, haha. I can't edit a title though, so I guess it will have to stay this way unless a mod wouldn't mind changing it.

Portland has a bunch of home games left, I don't think they are going to finish behind us. If we're going to jump someone, it's going to be the Jazz.

I also don't think so, but it's also going to be hard to chase the Jazz, they're finally healthy and I think that will help them do a little better on the road.

We are not 3-1 against Portland.

Yeah, my mistake. Fixed now.

[ghazi]

I honestly would not be surprised to see 4-5 teams finish with the same record.

It sucks that our conference record is very mediocre.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by ghazi

I honestly would not be surprised to see 4-5 teams finish with the same record.

It sucks that our conference record is very mediocre.

True - do we hold a tie-breaker over anyone aside from Portland?

[craggmac]

Man, our remaining schedule sucks..... bad.

[tsar]

Originally Posted by Underdog

True - do we hold a tie-breaker over anyone aside from Portland?

No.

[sefant77]

We can pass the Hornets if we win both of the games. Just look at their last 7 games, just really hard ones. If they keep on missing Chandler and we get Josh back its quiet possible.

Anyway we have to step now up and win games to build up confidence for the playoffs.

[Re-Dirk-ulous]

Wow tsar, I bet you lost some sleep putting that together

[stoble]

Good job tsar. Now I see the predicament we are in. It looks like we've pretty much locked ourselves into the 8th seed.

If only there was something we could do to make the other teams lose

Tonight let's hope that the 76ers can give us a hand!

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by stoble

If only there was something we could do to make the other teams lose

We can beat Denver, Phoenix, Utah, New Orleans, and Houston at home. Tough schedule, but this team's destiny is still in their hands.

[fluid.forty.one]

This thread just isn't the same without that r.

[tsar]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

This thread just isn't the same without that r.

You still have "tiebeaks" to hold you over. Portland better get their ass whooped tonight.

[horse900703]

Most likely we gonna play Lakers in 1st round~

[Flacolaco]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

This thread just isn't the same without that r.

I don't know which kindly mod took it away, but it wasn't me.

I like to watch you people make mistakes and then twist in the wind

[Thomas86]

I would like to play the Blazers but hey what can you do.....

[tsar]

Looks like Suns and Sixers did us a few favors today. Sank u vry mch!

[MX425]

The last 24 hours of the season could be very exciting. In the West you have Lakers v Jazz on 4/14, and on 4/15 Mavs v Rockets, Dever v Port, and Spurs v Hornets. A lot could be decided on the last day of the season.

[bcrav4]

Tonight Utah is playing the Rox, then tomorrow they play at Phx (5 wins in a row). There is probably a 70% chance they lose at least one of these games. Right?

[fluid.forty.one]

IMO, the best case scenario for us would be for Houston to beat Utah and for Utah to beat Phoenix.

[alby]

I'm not worried about Phoenix. I want Houston to beat Utah, and Phoenix to beat Utah.

[Bayliss]

I'm not worried about Phoenix. I want Houston to beat Utah, and Phoenix to beat Utah.

Yep. That's the best scenario. The Mavs want every team above them to lose as much as possible. And since Utah is right above then they need to continue to lose.

[SMC0007]

We could take Houstons spot, that would be cool too right?


Haha... Artests teeth jumped out of his mouth last night, did anyone else see this?

[tsar]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

We could take Houstons spot, that would be cool too right?


Haha... Artests teeth jumped out of his mouth last night, did anyone else see this?

I'll take anybodies spot at this point. Time to kick some warrior ass tonight!

[purplefrog]

Ryan Hollins has a plan for the Lakers
9:10 AM Tue, Mar 24, 2009 |
Tim MacMahon

Backup center Ryan Hollins made an appearance on Michael Irvin's ESPN 103.3 radio show yesterday. It wasn't as memorable as Josh Howard's April appearance on Irvin's show, but Hollins had some interesting things to say after his best road trip during his brief time with the Mavs.

Hollins obviously gained some confidence after making back-to-back starts while Erick Dampier rested a bum knee. The 7-footer declined a request by ex-Cowboy offensive lineman/Irvin sidekick Nate Newton to publicly demand more playing time, but Hollins made it clear he believes he can help the Mavs win now and in the playoffs.

Hollins went so far as to provide some insight on how the Mavs could succeed as an 8 seed against the Lakers, whom he acknowledged were the team to beat. The key: Take advantage of Kobe's selfishness.

"Kobe Bryant is one of the greatest players in the game, and I think sometimes he has issues trusting his teammates," said Hollins, who probably saw a lot of Lakers games while playing college ball at UCLA. "Maybe we catch them off guard, kind of get Kobe into playing a little one-on-one or doing a little too much, I think we've got a shot at them definitely."

It seems like a player should have a minimum of one minute's worth of playoff experience before saying anything that could land on the bulletin board of the defending conference champions, doesn't it?

[Sportstudi]

Originally Posted by purplefrog

Ryan Hollins has a plan for the Lakers
9:10 AM Tue, Mar 24, 2009 |
Tim MacMahon

Backup center Ryan Hollins made an appearance on Michael Irvin's ESPN 103.3 radio show yesterday. It wasn't as memorable as Josh Howard's April appearance on Irvin's show, but Hollins had some interesting things to say after his best road trip during his brief time with the Mavs.

Hollins obviously gained some confidence after making back-to-back starts while Erick Dampier rested a bum knee. The 7-footer declined a request by ex-Cowboy offensive lineman/Irvin sidekick Nate Newton to publicly demand more playing time, but Hollins made it clear he believes he can help the Mavs win now and in the playoffs.

Hollins went so far as to provide some insight on how the Mavs could succeed as an 8 seed against the Lakers, whom he acknowledged were the team to beat. The key: Take advantage of Kobe's selfishness.

"Kobe Bryant is one of the greatest players in the game, and I think sometimes he has issues trusting his teammates," said Hollins, who probably saw a lot of Lakers games while playing college ball at UCLA. "Maybe we catch them off guard, kind of get Kobe into playing a little one-on-one or doing a little too much, I think we've got a shot at them definitely."

It seems like a player should have a minimum of one minute's worth of playoff experience before saying anything that could land on the bulletin board of the defending conference champions, doesn't it?

Yes, I agree. Unfortunately Kobe plays his best game if he's angry. I assume he won't be happy after reading that statement.

[tsar]

Looks like Nene did everyone who's battling for the 7 spots in the west a little favor:

"Taken from ESPN:
Nene supended for head-butt incident
Comment Email Print Share
Associated Press

NEW YORK -- The Denver Nuggets' Nene has been suspended two games without pay by the NBA after head-butting an opposing player and making contact with an official.

NBA executive vice president of operations Stu Jackson announced the discipline on Monday.

Nene was ejected with 7:25 left in the fourth quarter of Denver's 118-115 loss to the Phoenix Suns on Monday night, after head-butting the Suns' Louis Amundson. After the ejection, Nene made contact with a game official, Jackson said.

Nene, who is averaging 14.6 points and 7.8 rebounds, will begin serving his suspension Wednesday night against New Orleans. He would be eligible to return March 28 against Golden State."

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by purplefrog

Ryan Hollins has a plan for the Lakers
9:10 AM Tue, Mar 24, 2009 |
Tim MacMahon

Backup center Ryan Hollins made an appearance on Michael Irvin's ESPN 103.3 radio show yesterday. It wasn't as memorable as Josh Howard's April appearance on Irvin's show, but Hollins had some interesting things to say after his best road trip during his brief time with the Mavs.

Hollins obviously gained some confidence after making back-to-back starts while Erick Dampier rested a bum knee. The 7-footer declined a request by ex-Cowboy offensive lineman/Irvin sidekick Nate Newton to publicly demand more playing time, but Hollins made it clear he believes he can help the Mavs win now and in the playoffs.

Hollins went so far as to provide some insight on how the Mavs could succeed as an 8 seed against the Lakers, whom he acknowledged were the team to beat. The key: Take advantage of Kobe's selfishness.

"Kobe Bryant is one of the greatest players in the game, and I think sometimes he has issues trusting his teammates," said Hollins, who probably saw a lot of Lakers games while playing college ball at UCLA. "Maybe we catch them off guard, kind of get Kobe into playing a little one-on-one or doing a little too much, I think we've got a shot at them definitely."

It seems like a player should have a minimum of one minute's worth of playoff experience before saying anything that could land on the bulletin board of the defending conference champions, doesn't it?

Will this material run through Kobe's mind, and actually play a part in the series? I mean it could do a lot of things in the mind game arena, we've never really challenged kobe like that.....but it's too long of a series, Jackson is the best in series adjuster there is and those guys they can turn it on and off.

[alby]

The Mavericks are going to finish in 6th with a 51-31 record.