10-17-2011, 05:06 PM
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#1
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
Posts: 8,141
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Rangers vs. Cardinals - WORLD SERIES!
Rangers in 7 is my gut feeling, but I want to close this out at home so I am officially going with Rangers in 5. Unlikely, sure, but it sure would be sweet to celebrate with the fans in Arlington and I am going to try like hell to get tickets to that game.
I said it at the beginning of the Rays series and at the beginning of the Tigers series and I say it again now confident that we are that team...
May the best team win.
GO RANGERS!
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10-17-2011, 05:11 PM
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#2
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,223
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The good news is we don't have Cliff Lee to set the tone in Game One like he did last year.
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10-19-2011, 05:41 PM
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#3
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 3,531
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
The good news is we don't have Cliff Lee to set the tone in Game One like he did last year.
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No, but we have CJ to give up a HR every inning. That's a great tone setter.
Last edited by ShaggyDirk; 10-19-2011 at 05:42 PM.
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10-17-2011, 05:25 PM
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#4
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Golden Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,628
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I have tickets to Game 3. So I'm gonna predict Rangers in 3.
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10-17-2011, 08:38 PM
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#5
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Moderator
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Threw down a fair amount of cash on the Rangers to win the whole thing before the playoffs started. 15:2 payout. This will be doubly fun.
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"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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10-17-2011, 09:07 PM
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#6
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Guru
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Cowboys Country
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LonghornDub
Threw down a fair amount of cash on the Rangers to win the whole thing before the playoffs started. 15:2 payout. This will be doubly fun.
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Smart man. Smart, smart man.
I'm going Rangers in five. They can't hold this offense.
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10-17-2011, 09:19 PM
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#7
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Golden Member
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,865
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This is the last run of our tree-fo-fo journey
Rangers in 5 with 2 close wins and 2 routs
CJ breaks out of his funk to shut the cards down in games 1 and 5
Larussa and co. get flustered and start throwing at some of our sluggers - Rangers take the high road and make them pay anyways.
Go Rangers!
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10-17-2011, 10:10 PM
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#8
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Basketball fan nirvana
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I'm not as jiggy as I was going into the heat series, but this is way the hell up there. Let's get this beotch.
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"It does not take a brain seargant to know the reason this team struggles." -- dmack24
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10-18-2011, 11:34 AM
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#9
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The Preacha
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: The Rock
Posts: 36,066
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexamenos
I'm not as jiggy as I was going into the heat series, but this is way the hell up there. Let's get this beotch.
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Bingo
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ok, we've talked about the problem of evil, and the extent of the atonement's application, but my real question to you is, "Could Jesus dunk?"
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10-18-2011, 06:41 AM
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#10
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Just outside the Metroplex
Posts: 5,539
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The Rangers are the better team, but this is why you play the games.
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soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order.
-Capt. Bob "Wolf" Johnson
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10-18-2011, 08:02 AM
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#11
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Golden Member
Join Date: Feb 2001
Posts: 1,244
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Bandwagon fan here...Not ever watching many Cards games, how do they stack up against the Rangers? I keep hearing that pitching is roughly the same...Moderate starting pitching and decent bullpen. So this is going to be about who has the best/hottest hitting...Since we don't have homefield advantage, I am a little nervous about losing one hitter in the line-up due to NL rules. Will that haunt the Rangers?
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Panela velha faz comida boa!!!
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10-18-2011, 08:11 AM
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#12
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Lazy Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Lazytown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maringa
Bandwagon fan here...Not ever watching many Cards games, how do they stack up against the Rangers? I keep hearing that pitching is roughly the same...Moderate starting pitching and decent bullpen. So this is going to be about who has the best/hottest hitting...Since we don't have homefield advantage, I am a little nervous about losing one hitter in the line-up due to NL rules. Will that haunt the Rangers?
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This hurt the Rangers last year. This year, it's no big deal at all. It just means losing Moreland or Chavez.
This exact situation is one of the reasons why it's so huge that Napoli has proven himself defensively and is not just a DH/1B.
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10-18-2011, 09:29 AM
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#13
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
Posts: 8,141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maringa
Bandwagon fan here...Not ever watching many Cards games, how do they stack up against the Rangers? I keep hearing that pitching is roughly the same...Moderate starting pitching and decent bullpen. So this is going to be about who has the best/hottest hitting...[b]Since we don't have homefield advantage[b], I am a little nervous about losing one hitter in the line-up due to NL rules. Will that haunt the Rangers?
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Personally, I am not a huge fan of home field advantage in a 2/3/2 format. I hate the idea of splitting the first two and then having to face your opponent with 3 home games where you could potentially be put away without returning home again.
Obviously it worked well for us with Detroit and it worked well for SF last year against us. That said, I would much rather be in Texas' position here. I get all the obvious down-side but I really would rather have the opportunity to put major pressure on my opponent. Key is, you MUST win 1 of the first 2.
I love the idea of HFA and would definitely prefer it if offered in a 2/2/1/1/1 format but there is obviously a great deal of travel with that and I get why it isn't used.
Either way, over a 7 game series, regardless of HFA, the best team should win and the best team in this series is Texas.
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10-19-2011, 05:05 AM
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#14
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Golden Member
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,865
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
Personally, I am not a huge fan of home field advantage in a 2/3/2 format. I hate the idea of splitting the first two and then having to face your opponent with 3 home games where you could potentially be put away without returning home again.
Obviously it worked well for us with Detroit and it worked well for SF last year against us. That said, I would much rather be in Texas' position here. I get all the obvious down-side but I really would rather have the opportunity to put major pressure on my opponent. Key is, you MUST win 1 of the first 2.
I love the idea of HFA and would definitely prefer it if offered in a 2/2/1/1/1 format but there is obviously a great deal of travel with that and I get why it isn't used.
Either way, over a 7 game series, regardless of HFA, the best team should win and the best team in this series is Texas.
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totally agree on the HFA format.
Another main reason 2-3-2 is important for baseball is the 22111 format would have too many days off. too easy to just throw your best horses out there every game.
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10-19-2011, 03:57 PM
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#15
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
Personally, I am not a huge fan of home field advantage in a 2/3/2 format. I hate the idea of splitting the first two and then having to face your opponent with 3 home games where you could potentially be put away without returning home again.
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I said this exact thing before the Finals. I think the 2-3-2 in many, many instances actually benefits the non-advantage team more than it does the advantage team. Flipping the often pivotal Game 5 is huge.
Along related (but slightly different) lines, Chum did a nice post on the various permutations explaining why 2-3-2 is better than 2-2-1-1-1 for the non-advantage team in the vast majority of scenarios.
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Last edited by LonghornDub; 10-19-2011 at 04:01 PM.
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10-19-2011, 04:10 PM
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#16
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LonghornDub
I said this exact thing before the Finals. I think the 2-3-2 in many, many instances actually benefits the non-advantage team more than it does the advantage team. Flipping the often pivotal Game 5 is huge.
Along related (but slightly different) lines, Chum did a nice post on the various permutations explaining why 2-3-2 is better than 2-2-1-1-1 for the non-advantage team in the vast majority of scenarios.
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Didn't see his or your comments, but either way, I am pleased to be in the position we're in. Just have to get game 1 or 2 to go our way (preferably both).
Here's hoping for tonight to be that game! GO RANGERS!!!
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10-18-2011, 08:14 AM
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#17
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Apr 2006
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Rangers in 6.
The weather will probably be crappy in STL for at least game 1.
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You say it in Brazil, you say Dirk, they know Nowitzki. You say it in China,
they know Nowitzki. Kobe, Michael, DIRK." - Jeff Van Gundy
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10-18-2011, 09:32 AM
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#18
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick41
Rangers in 6.
The weather will probably be crappy in STL for at least game 1.
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Ugh...
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10-19-2011, 04:18 PM
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#19
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
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If you're stuck with only three games at home, you can argue it's more desirable to have the three middle games, but it's still a better overall advantage to have four total games at home.
Last edited by Dirkadirkastan; 10-19-2011 at 04:21 PM.
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10-19-2011, 06:38 PM
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#20
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
If you're stuck with only three games at home, you can argue it's more desirable to have the three middle games, but it's still a better overall advantage to have four total games at home.
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it's not when the series ends in 5, the series would have to go the full 7 games for the advantage team to even have a true "advantage", in fact after 5 games the other team has the advantage and if the series ends in 6 neither team will have had one.
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Last edited by xrobx; 10-19-2011 at 06:39 PM.
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10-19-2011, 08:00 PM
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#21
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xrobx
it's not when the series ends in 5, the series would have to go the full 7 games for the advantage team to even have a true "advantage", in fact after 5 games the other team has the advantage and if the series ends in 6 neither team will have had one.
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If Game Seven is never played, then its value is zilch. If Game Seven IS played, it has ultimate value.
On the contrary, Game One will never decide a series, but it will always be played and have an impact in the series.
In the end, it all evens out and each game has the same value as any other before the series starts. Therefore, it's more desirable to get four at home than three.
Edit: Another thing I want to add to this point is that you can't look at home field in retrospect. What you said implied that if the Rangers closed out the previous series in five, then Detroit would have had the advantage. But since Detroit forced a Game Six, nobody had a home field edge. Therefore, by winning Game Five, Detroit conceded an advantage to Texas that they would have otherwise kept had they lost. As you can tell, this is nonsense.
It would be more accurate to say that, in the scenario the Rangers closed it out in Game Five, the Rangers held home field advantage throughout the series. Even though those last two home games were never played, the mere threat of two remaining games in Arlington made a full comeback by Detroit seem all the more daunting of a task.
Last edited by Dirkadirkastan; 10-19-2011 at 11:29 PM.
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10-19-2011, 11:18 PM
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#22
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
If you're stuck with only three games at home, you can argue it's more desirable to have the three middle games, but it's still a better overall advantage to have four total games at home.
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Missing the point. If one game is lost while at home in the 2-3-2 format the opportunity is there for you to only play 2 home game. In a 2-2-1-1-1 format, even if you lose 1 at home, you KNOW you will have another opportunity to play at home (barring a 4-game sweep of course).
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10-19-2011, 11:32 PM
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#23
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Diamond Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
Missing the point. If one game is lost while at home in the 2-3-2 format the opportunity is there for you to only play 2 home game. In a 2-2-1-1-1 format, even if you lose 1 at home, you KNOW you will have another opportunity to play at home (barring a 4-game sweep of course).
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The two scenarios don't split until Game Five. If you're already down 3-1, what difference does it make if your lone road game comes before the other two or not? You have to sweep all three regardless.
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10-19-2011, 11:52 PM
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#24
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
The two scenarios don't split until Game Five. If you're already down 3-1, what difference does it make if your lone road game comes before the other two or not? You have to sweep all three regardless.
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???
You just don't get the importance of getting confidence from a single win and building off of that toward multiple wins. If you somehow think that playing game 5 on the road is somehow equal or better than playing game 5 at home while down 3-1 I just don't have much else to offer to convince you otherwise.
The bottom line is that a team can split on the road in the 2-3-2 format, like hopefully Texas does, and then have an opportunity to win 3 straight at home to never allow the opposing team to see their home field again. In a 2-2-1-1-1 scenario that isn't possible. It is as simple as that.
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Last edited by Male30Dan; 10-19-2011 at 11:57 PM.
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10-20-2011, 12:58 AM
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#25
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
???
You just don't get the importance of getting confidence from a single win and building off of that toward multiple wins. If you somehow thing that playing game 5 on the road is somehow equal or better than playing game 5 at home while down 3-1 I just don't have much else to offer to convince you otherwise.
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I think assuming the games are independent and have no impact on each other is a reasonable null hypothesis (such is the typical stance of null hypotheses). Some people think wins have a positive impact on future games (momentum) and others think they have a negative impact (letdown). Personally, I find that we see too much of both to believe either one is a genuine force.
Even if you disagree, let me expand on this a bit then I'll address the alternative.
If the games are independent, then their order simply does not matter. Consider the case where you're down 3-1 but still have two home games. Either
A) You have Game Five at home. The good news is you have a good chance to win that game and extend the series. The bad news is the best you can do is force another road game.
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B) You have Game Five on the road. The bad news is that you're now more likely to lose that game. But the good news is you have a chance to win, with BOTH remaining games at home. In other words, there's a higher risk but also a higher reward if the game is won.
Mathematically, it all evens out. For the sake of example, let's assume your odds of winning a home game are 60% and your odds of winning a road game are 40%. Then your odds of winning Games 5-7 in scenario A are (.6)(.4)(.6) = 14.4%. In scenario B, the odds are (.4)(.6)(.6) = 14.4%.
What you're proposing is a conditional probability model. That is, the games are not independent; rather, past games impact the win probabilities of future ones. Perhaps in scenario A, winning Game Five increases the likelihood of getting that road win in Game Six to 50%, and a win there in turn builds momentum such that your overall win odds are 70%. Then your odds of winning the series become (.6)(.5)(.7) = 21%. Whereas in the other scenario, perhaps only the odds for Game Seven are increased to 70%, in which case your odds of winning are (.4)(.6)(.7) = 16.8%.
There are two issues I have with this model. One is that I find it too complex to justify the decisive conclusion that you draw from it. Sure, maybe (maybe!) in the specific case you have home field yet trail 3-1, you are better off playing Game Five at home. But to truly evaluate the worth of having this game at home overall, you cannot just analyze this scenario. You have to analyze it under all possible scenarios and weight them accordingly. You may be down 3-1, but you may also be up 3-1, and it could also be 2-2. Mathematically, you have to set up a win probability matrix with each scenario weighted properly. Maybe Game Five is good to have at home when down 3-1, but maybe it's not all that likely you trail 3-1 in the first place. And maybe the consequences of the other scenarios outweigh them. Maybe.
Secondly, and more importantly, in order to abandon the null hypothesis, you have to come up with strong observable evidence that the null hypothesis is false. You can't just feel it in your gut that the guys are more confident and roll with it. You can point to the 2008 World Series and say it was all momentum, but then I'll ask you to explain the 2010 NLCS with the same analysis.
The way I see it, treating the games as independent is as reasonable as any other theory, with the side benefit that it is easier to analyze.
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10-19-2011, 11:24 PM
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#26
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Diamond Member
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As far as tonight goes, so very much fail on Washington's part... Have to give credit to St. Louis' bullpen for preventing a run, but I sure would like to see what would have happened had Beltre been given a fair AB in the 9th. And man - up 0-2 on the pinch hitter that put St. Louis up 1 - sheesh, gotta get that guy out. Worst case, get the count to 2-2 by throwing a couple of balls hoping he lunges. Don't fire an 0-2 pitch right down the middle of the plate. Some times he is so aggressive he kicks himself in the ass.
So many what ifs - just makes losing a game like this so difficult. Really hope kick ass Colby is the version we get tomorrow. Man, if we go down 0-2, the series isn't over, but man - just better not happen.
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10-19-2011, 11:48 PM
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#27
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Lazy Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
As far as tonight goes, so very much fail on Washington's part... Have to give credit to St. Louis' bullpen for preventing a run, but I sure would like to see what would have happened had Beltre been given a fair AB in the 9th. And man - up 0-2 on the pinch hitter that put St. Louis up 1 - sheesh, gotta get that guy out. Worst case, get the count to 2-2 by throwing a couple of balls hoping he lunges. Don't fire an 0-2 pitch right down the middle of the plate. Some times he is so aggressive he kicks himself in the ass.
So many what ifs - just makes losing a game like this so difficult. Really hope kick ass Colby is the version we get tomorrow. Man, if we go down 0-2, the series isn't over, but man - just better not happen.
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I would have liked to see a slider, but I don't agree that it was right down the middle. It was on the outer half and at the knees. I thought it was a quality pitch, and off the bat I thought that was an out. And with that kind of contact, it's an out most of the time. Just got lucky. Sucks.
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10-19-2011, 11:56 PM
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#28
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Diamond Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jthig32
I would have liked to see a slider, but I don't agree that it was right down the middle. It was on the outer half and at the knees. I thought it was a quality pitch, and off the bat I thought that was an out. And with that kind of contact, it's an out most of the time. Just got lucky. Sucks.
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Come on... It was a low fastball. It would have been called a strike - borderline, but a strike. You do NOT throw a strike in that situation. Hell, you don't throw a borderlilne strike that might get barely called a ball in that situation. That is my point.
He regularly does it and I would LOVE to see the stat showing how many base hits are allowed up 0-2. Dude would have to lead the league. Not like this is anything new and he avoided damage in the first two rounds, but he just attacks, attacks, attacks. Sometimes it works, other times it doesn't. Must learn how to pitch SMART. He obviously can pitch and can throw and obviously he has great stuff.
That pitch isn't why we lost, but it definitely played its role in preventing us from winning.
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10-20-2011, 12:33 AM
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#29
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Lazy Moderator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
Come on... It was a low fastball. It would have been called a strike - borderline, but a strike. You do NOT throw a strike in that situation. Hell, you don't throw a borderlilne strike that might get barely called a ball in that situation. That is my point.
He regularly does it and I would LOVE to see the stat showing how many base hits are allowed up 0-2. Dude would have to lead the league. Not like this is anything new and he avoided damage in the first two rounds, but he just attacks, attacks, attacks. Sometimes it works, other times it doesn't. Must learn how to pitch SMART. He obviously can pitch and can throw and obviously he has great stuff.
That pitch isn't why we lost, but it definitely played its role in preventing us from winning.
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That's fair, I was just pointing out that it wasn't exactly a meat ball. Although I don't necessarily agree that you should ALWAYS throw a junk pitch on 0-2. For all we know the scouting report on that particular hitter might show that he expects the junker and is susceptible to the 0-2 strike. Ogando is defintely an aggressive pitcher, but I don't necessarily hate that 0-2 pitch. As I mentioned, it DID induce the kind of contact that is going to result in an out the majority of the time.
Did you have a beef with Washington beyond the German pinch hit (which was weird, for sure)?
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10-20-2011, 01:01 AM
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#30
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jthig32
That's fair, I was just pointing out that it wasn't exactly a meat ball. Although I don't necessarily agree that you should ALWAYS throw a junk pitch on 0-2. For all we know the scouting report on that particular hitter might show that he expects the junker and is susceptible to the 0-2 strike. Ogando is defintely an aggressive pitcher, but I don't necessarily hate that 0-2 pitch. As I mentioned, it DID induce the kind of contact that is going to result in an out the majority of the time.
Did you have a beef with Washington beyond the German pinch hit (which was weird, for sure)?
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Obviously there are times to attack there, but even if he is susceptible to the 0-2 strike, given the situation, I still think you try a couple of pitches to get him to swing and miss.
Bottom line, as you said, it was slider time and he throws a fastball strike. Just can't do it. Just can't. Hell, even if you want to throw a strike, make it a borderline slider after 2 straight fastballs to get to the 0-2 count to begin with.
Hell, he could be the best slider hitter in baseball and it would still be better to throw a junk pitch slider to see if he chases vs. throwing a fastball strike that - as was obviously proven possible - can be slapped into right field for the winning run in a World Series game.
Mentioned the other core issues I had with Washington in my last post...
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10-20-2011, 12:05 AM
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#31
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Diamond Member
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Just so much blame to go around...
Lack of timely hits with RISP
HORRIBLE management (just HORRIBLE)
Umpire's mistake on Beltre's foul ball
Ogando's pitch
Once again, Wilson...... Ugh. Walks, hit batter, walks, walks, walks
Cruz not diving (though who knows - maybe that was a blessing in disguise)
Did I mention untimely hitting?
Did I mention Warsh?
Wish we could have a mulligan but I just hope we learn from these mistakes and play better baseball tomorrow.
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10-20-2011, 12:17 AM
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#32
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Guru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
Just so much blame to go around...
Lack of timely hits with RISP
HORRIBLE management (just HORRIBLE)
Umpire's mistake on Beltre's foul ball
Ogando's pitch
Once again, Wilson...... Ugh. Walks, hit batter, walks, walks, walks
Cruz not diving (though who knows - maybe that was a blessing in disguise)
Did I mention untimely hitting?
Did I mention Warsh?
Wish we could have a mulligan but I just hope we learn from these mistakes and play better baseball tomorrow.
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What are you on to, with the management? The Esteban pinch hit?
I hate to take the loss, but I'm not in tears about it. Hell, 3-2 game...you'd about expect that, out of the championship series, right?
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10-20-2011, 12:53 AM
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#33
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Diamond Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chumdawg
What are you on to, with the management? The Esteban pinch hit?
I hate to take the loss, but I'm not in tears about it. Hell, 3-2 game...you'd about expect that, out of the championship series, right?
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While that most certainly isn't ALL that he did wrong, that was a major, major mistake to put Esteban in instead of Torrealba. He could have even kept Ogando in via the double switch had he wanted to and I doubt he even knew that. Instead he essentially uses who most of us consider his best bullpen arm for a third of an inning and then has to change to Mike HRzalez. Granted he and Feldman held the score at 3, but he still didn't manage his team well at all there.
In addition to that, he calls for a hit and run in the 1st instead of a simple bunt with one of the best bunters in baseball squashing an opportunity to let Josh and Beltre hit with a guy on 2nd. If that run gets knocked in and we jump off to an early lead who knows how the rest of the game goes.
Finally, changing the lineup was, in my opinion, stupid as hell. Anyone that follows this team closely knows that Cruz's spot in the lineup actually does affect him - more than anyone else I have ever come across in baseball. He was motivated and in a groove in the #7 spot and the reason he moves him is the lack of protection from #8? You mean, the same lack of protection we had previously? Hell, Moreland is essentially a pitcher hitting 9th anyway here lately - what the hell is the difference? You don't mess with a good thing and while Cruz definitely should be hitting higher, the motivation from being that low and his hot bat was reason enough not to touch him. Sure, Napoli hit a HR from that same spot and who knows if we even score without that, but from my perspective, I would have never done that.
I'm not in tears about the loss either, but these are the types of games that are still difficult to accept due to knowing that a couple of breaks or better decision making could have easily swung the game in the opposite direction.
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10-20-2011, 02:21 AM
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#34
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Guru
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Cowboys Country
Posts: 23,336
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
While that most certainly isn't ALL that he did wrong, that was a major, major mistake to put Esteban in instead of Torrealba. He could have even kept Ogando in via the double switch had he wanted to and I doubt he even knew that. Instead he essentially uses who most of us consider his best bullpen arm for a third of an inning and then has to change to Mike HRzalez. Granted he and Feldman held the score at 3, but he still didn't manage his team well at all there.
In addition to that, he calls for a hit and run in the 1st instead of a simple bunt with one of the best bunters in baseball squashing an opportunity to let Josh and Beltre hit with a guy on 2nd. If that run gets knocked in and we jump off to an early lead who knows how the rest of the game goes.
Finally, changing the lineup was, in my opinion, stupid as hell. Anyone that follows this team closely knows that Cruz's spot in the lineup actually does affect him - more than anyone else I have ever come across in baseball. He was motivated and in a groove in the #7 spot and the reason he moves him is the lack of protection from #8? You mean, the same lack of protection we had previously? Hell, Moreland is essentially a pitcher hitting 9th anyway here lately - what the hell is the difference? You don't mess with a good thing and while Cruz definitely should be hitting higher, the motivation from being that low and his hot bat was reason enough not to touch him. Sure, Napoli hit a HR from that same spot and who knows if we even score without that, but from my perspective, I would have never done that.
I'm not in tears about the loss either, but these are the types of games that are still difficult to accept due to knowing that a couple of breaks or better decision making could have easily swung the game in the opposite direction.
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I guess where I'm coming from is that I'm not going to sit here in my chair and question Ron Washington. The dude has enough currency with me. Did he see something with Esteban? Hell, if he can't hit him there, why is he on the roster? Maybe he was anticipating a long game, like if we had scored in the 9th, and he wanted to keep some powder dry. I don't know.
The bullpen moves worked out okay, as you recognized.
The hit-and-run in the first? Maybe Elvis needs to execute a little better there.
And finally, I'm not going anywhere near touching the psychobabble that says Nellie needed to stay safe in his nest at the seven hole. If we're that fragile, God bless us.
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10-20-2011, 03:32 AM
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#35
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
Posts: 8,141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chumdawg
I guess where I'm coming from is that I'm not going to sit here in my chair and question Ron Washington. The dude has enough currency with me. Did he see something with Esteban? Hell, if he can't hit him there, why is he on the roster? Maybe he was anticipating a long game, like if we had scored in the 9th, and he wanted to keep some powder dry. I don't know.
The bullpen moves worked out okay, as you recognized.
The hit-and-run in the first? Maybe Elvis needs to execute a little better there.
And finally, I'm not going anywhere near touching the psychobabble that says Nellie needed to stay safe in his nest at the seven hole. If we're that fragile, God bless us.
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Fair enough on giving Ron a pass due to him having enough currency with you. I agree that he has our team in a position to win the biggest prize, but his decision making and game management skills were questioned the entire ride. It isn't like I loved all of his decisions and only now find issue with it. This has been going on and the talent on his roster has overcome a lot of that. Tonight though, not so much.
As far as Esteban, he should be on the roster in case of injury and injury alone regarding swinging a piece of lumber and the only other time he should see game action is in the event that we need to pinch run in a close game. Aside from that, no, there is never a reason he should be in a playoff contest. PERIOD (in my opinion of course).
Regarding Elvis, tough to hit a ball that was very much low and away (basically the pitch I wanted Ogando to throw in that 0-2 count). He tried, and wasn't all that close to it. Bottom line is there is more risk in that situation and more reward, but to start a World Series game I would be very happy with a 1-0 lead to apply some pressure vs. trying to jump out to a 2+ run lead at the risk of walking away empty handed. Sure, the opportunity is there for two ground outs by Hamilton/Beltre, but the odds are much better given Elvis' great bunting ability.
And you have been a fan of this team long enough to know that Nellie responds differently based on where you hit him. Put him in the 4th spot and watch his numbers drag down. He is fragile mentally and that is all there is to it. Wish it wasn't the case, but sadly, it is.
With everything above said and all of my other posts considered, the following rings true...
GO RANGERS, WIN GAME 2 TODAY!!!
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Last edited by Male30Dan; 10-20-2011 at 03:33 AM.
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10-20-2011, 08:15 AM
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#36
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Lazy Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Lazytown
Posts: 18,721
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The hit and run in the first was a weird decision, but wanting a sacrifice in the first inning is just as weird, imo. I'm not interested in giving away an out in the first inning.
I'm also fine with moving Nellie in the order, although I'm not a huge fan of Napoli being the one to move down. Now our best hitter over the course of the season is hitting seventh. And hitting seventh cost him an at bat in a one run game. I'm not a fan of that. But moving Nellie, in and of itself, I have no problem with. Without looking at the stats, I'm pretty sure cleanup is the only position in the lineup where Nellie supposedly stops hitting due to the pressure, or whatever.
Last edited by jthig32; 10-20-2011 at 08:15 AM.
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10-20-2011, 09:08 AM
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#37
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
Posts: 8,141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jthig32
The hit and run in the first was a weird decision, but wanting a sacrifice in the first inning is just as weird, imo. I'm not interested in giving away an out in the first inning.
I'm also fine with moving Nellie in the order, although I'm not a huge fan of Napoli being the one to move down. Now our best hitter over the course of the season is hitting seventh. And hitting seventh cost him an at bat in a one run game. I'm not a fan of that. But moving Nellie, in and of itself, I have no problem with. Without looking at the stats, I'm pretty sure cleanup is the only position in the lineup where Nellie supposedly stops hitting due to the pressure, or whatever.
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Fair enough, you agree with primarily everything Wash did. I don't. On to game 2.
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10-20-2011, 10:23 AM
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#38
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Lazy Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Lazytown
Posts: 18,721
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
Fair enough, you agree with primarily everything Wash did. I don't. On to game 2.
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Oh, I wouldn't characterize that way. Hitting German seems awfully stupid, and pitching around Punto in the sixth really bothers me.
And the lineup bothers me, and will continue to bother me. Having Elvis hit second is already a bad idea and has been all year. Now with Josh so hurt is really weakens our middle of the order.
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10-20-2011, 12:21 PM
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#39
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
Posts: 8,141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jthig32
Oh, I wouldn't characterize that way. Hitting German seems awfully stupid, and pitching around Punto in the sixth really bothers me.
And the lineup bothers me, and will continue to bother me. Having Elvis hit second is already a bad idea and has been all year. Now with Josh so hurt is really weakens our middle of the order.
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Eh, Punto had a couple of close pitches he could have swung at and I am not so sure that he pitched around him considering Washington took him out after that. His final pitch sure seemed like he was trying to get a strike called. Body language indicated as much too. Possible that his inability to consistently throw the ball where he wants to coupled with his nibbling style just created a walk. Possible that he did pitch around him too - but not completely sure I know which took place given his performance up to that point, attitude after, and Washington's decision.
Even if he did, considering it would have been a strategy play to get Carpenter out of the game (the guy that had pretty well shut us down minus one huge Napoli swing), I wouldn't have made that a fundamental mistake by Ron at the level I felt the other mistakes were, especially considering Punto had a hit previously and the eventual swinger, while having great success in pinch hit scenarios, was put in a very tough situation.
Agree though that having Elvis and Josh moved down in the lineup would be wise in theory, of course there is some truth to the "if it ain't broke..." thought process and messing with the confidence of players with a single series left. Even if I did do that, I wouldn't have touched Cruz. Dude is just fragile in my opinion with regard to his hitting spot. Would honestly not be surprised to see him not hit a single HR this series due to that change. Would obviously be disappointed, but it wouldn't surprise me.
Hopefully last night was a series of poor decisions and bad breaks and it will even out tonight with the best team winning and taking back home field advantage.
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Last edited by Male30Dan; 10-20-2011 at 12:29 PM.
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10-20-2011, 09:09 PM
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#40
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,223
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You simply do not understand what home field advantage in a seven game series is.
You're defining home field advantage as "team team which, at series end, played more games at home". This has no meaningful application whatsoever and has absurd logical conclusions such as the possibility of HFA being lost while simultaneously winning games.
Here's the conventional definition: "Home field advantage is held by the team that could potentially clinch the series without any additional road wins." When a road team splits the first two games, it is said that they "steal home field advantage". This is not because the series can end in five games; that was true already. They steal home field because they can now clinch the series merely by winning out at home, whereas before the other team held that distinction.
Last edited by Dirkadirkastan; 10-20-2011 at 09:10 PM.
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