Polls

[Chiwas]

Bush 46% Kerry 44%
Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 46%
Kerry 44%
Other 4%
Not Sure 5%
RasmussenReports.com

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Rasmussen Reports Home


Tuesday April 20, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 46% of the vote and Senator John F. Kerry with 44%.


Link

[Chiwas]

Poll: Bush has lead on Kerry
Tuesday, April 20, 2004 Posted: 9:41 AM EDT (1341 GMT)


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Bush increased his lead over Sen. John Kerry in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll released Monday, but fewer than half of the respondents said they approved of the way Bush is handling of the war in Iraq.

Bush led Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, 51 percent to 46 percent in the survey of likely voters, which was conducted Friday through Sunday. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults, including a subsample of 767 respondents deemed most likely to vote in November.

When consumer activist Ralph Nader's independent candidacy was factored in, the survey's results were 50 percent for Bush, 44 percent for Kerry and 4 percent for Nader among likely voters.

The previous CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, conducted April 5-8, showed Bush leading Kerry 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

Link

[dude1394]

Funny isn't it that the polled don't like the way bush is handling the war but when also asked who would do a better job...

.... 40 percent backed Bush, 26 percent backed Kerry and 15 percent thought both would do a good job.....

I'm not sure how much of the negatives here are just negative feelings about the current situation or actual problems going on.

[Chiwas]

Poll says more see media bias
Democrats, GOP increasingly say reports favor the other side
09:32 PM CDT on Friday, April 9, 2004

By COLLEEN McCAIN NELSON / The Dallas Morning News


A growing number of people think their political news is being served up with a partisan bent.

Liberals and conservatives alike say they're not getting the straight scoop from the media, according to a survey released earlier this year. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that 39 percent of Americans say campaign coverage is biased, compared with 38 percent who see no bias in election news.

Republicans still see more partisanship in the press, but an increasing number of Democrats think that political coverage caters to the GOP.

Journalism experts said that the constant drumbeat from talk radio and assorted press critics has perpetuated perceptions of bias.

"Everyone is talking about media bias, which sensitizes people to media bias," said William Eveland, an assistant professor of journalism and communication at Ohio State University.

The Pew survey has shown a steadily growing sense of bias in campaign coverage since 1988. That year, 19 percent of people saw bias in political news; that number jumped to 39 percent this year.

Link

[dude1394]

A growing number of people think their political news is being served up with a partisan bent.

Ain't that the truth. I don't even begin to read the NYTimes front page anymore. I can't tell what's a news "analysis" and what's raw news. It's ridiculous.

I sent a letter to the Dallas Morning News about their front page "straight news story". It started off with.... "In an attempt to shore up his base.... blah blah. I mean just publish the news on the front page man.

[Chiwas]

[Chiwas]

[Murphy3]

I'm not sure that you can have an unbiased poll on CNN.com.

[dude1394]

Yes you are sure murphy.. you can NOT have an unbiased poll on cnn.com.

[Chiwas]

Newsweek. May 4, 2004.

[mavsman55]

Originally posted by: Chiwas

Not a scientifically valid survey? WTF is that supposed to mean?

[Chiwas]

Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 45%
Kerry 48%
Other 3%
Not Sure 5%

RasmussenReports.com


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Wednesday July 14, 2004--John Kerry continues to hold a modest lead over George W. Bush in the race for the White House. The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Polls shows Kerry with 48% of the vote while Bush attracts 45%.

Kerry now leads in our Electoral College projections 254 to 197. However, that lead is more fragile than it appears. If the Senator lost a single percentage point in just four states (Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Ohio), President Bush would hold the lead.

Our recent state releases included Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Washington. Bush improved relative to Kerry in eleven states. Kerry improved relative to Bush in ten states.

[Chiwas]

[u2sarajevo]

Kerry got a jump in the polls with his announcement of Edwards as his running man. I mean, it was obviously a small jump but a jump nonetheless. Kerry's jump will be larger when the convention happens later this month. And then Bush's will jump when the RNC happens (in September?).

Polls this early are really meaningless. But it is fun to see how happenings in the world affect public opinion.

[Mavdog]

The most surprising part of the poll is that just 6%- six percent!- are "undecided".

It seems that the voters have mostly picked their candidate and the campaigning may not change many minds. The result? An election as close as 2000 was, but let's hope that it is decided by the voters not by the SCOUS.

If the number stays at 6% I wonder if the respective campaigns will change how they are doing things. They will need to make sure their supporters remain behind them, and won't both candidates try to move more toward the middle (where I presume the last of the undecideds are)?

[madape]

Originally posted by: Mavdog
The most surprising part of the poll is that just 6%- six percent!- are "undecided".

It seems that the voters have mostly picked their candidate and the campaigning may not change many minds. The result? An election as close as 2000 was, but let's hope that it is decided by the voters not by the SCOUS.

If the number stays at 6% I wonder if the respective campaigns will change how they are doing things. They will need to make sure their supporters remain behind them, and won't both candidates try to move more toward the middle (where I presume the last of the undecideds are)?

Actually, the supreme court judged that voters should decide, not some illegal vote "recounting" coup.

[Mavdog]

Originally posted by: madape Actually, the supreme court judged that voters should decide, not some illegal vote "recounting" coup.

Their decision was that the FL Supreme Court overstepped in establishing a different deadline for the recanvassing of votes past the statutory deadline, and the decision of the FL SC was reversed. In effect that determined the election without a recount, and the FL Secty of State (Ms. Harris) had the authority to declare GWBush the victor.

Did this say "that voters should decide"? actually it is saying the FL S of State should decide...

If one believes that all the votes were indeed counted when Ms. Harris made her determination, sure, If however the conclusion is that some votes were not counted when the decision by Ms. Harris was made, then the answer is no, not ALL the voters were treated equally and had an equal voice in the election.

[Chiwas]

Absence of UN inspectors.

[madape]

The Iowa futures market is selling futures on who will win the election. As you can see, Bush is inching ahead. If you beleive in efficient markets, you know that all the information available to us, including polls, indicates a Bush victory. If you don't beleive in market efficiencies, then Kerry is your man anyway.

[Usually Lurkin]

[Chiwas]

Even so, they make an industry. One out of the artificial ones.

[Chiwas]

[Chiwas]

[Chiwas]

Kerry edges Bush slightly in pre-convention poll
Thursday, July 22, 2004 Posted: 10:46 PM EDT (0246 GMT)

(CNN) -- Less than a week before the Democratic National Convention, voters remained evenly split between President Bush and presumptive Democratic challenger John Kerry.The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, released Thursday, also showed voters were unusually interested and enthusiastic about the presidential race -- and 83 percent said they have already made up their minds about who will get their vote.

Kerry, the junior senator from Massachusetts, hopes the Democratic convention, which begins July 26 in Boston, will provide a bounce to his poll numbers. Conventions usually do.Bush is likely to receive a similar bounce after his convention, which begins in late August in New York.The presidential race appeared to be a dead heat among likely voters in this week's poll, conducted July 19-21.

Almost half of likely voters, 49 percent, favored Kerry and 47 percent supported Bush. The difference was well within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. With independent Ralph Nader thrown into the mix, 47 percent favored Kerry, 46 percent Bush and 4 percent Nader. Of the 1,005 adult Americans interviewed in the poll, 709 identified themselves as likely voters.

Roughly equal numbers of all those polled said the two men have the right personality and leadership qualities to be president. Kerry and Bush were essentially tied on the questions of who is more honest and trustworthy; who shares their values; who could better manage the government; and who is more optimistic.

Asked if Kerry agreed with them on issues that mattered to them most, 49 percent of all poll respondents said "yes" and 42 percent said "no." Asked the same question of Bush, 47 percent said "yes" and 50 percent said "no."

Overall, 55 percent of those polled had a favorable view of Kerry, while 52 percent viewed Bush favorably. The president's job approval rating stood at 49 percent, about where it has hovered all summer. There were some issues where the public views the two men differently. More than half of all those interviewed, 54 percent, said Bush would be a stronger and more decisive leader. Just 37 percent said Kerry would be stronger and more decisive.

The findings echoed the Republicans' months-long marketing campaign to portray Kerry as indecisive and a poor leader. And Republican efforts to paint Kerry as a liberal also appear to have worked, with 46 percent of all respondents saying they think he is liberal and just 32 percent saying they view him as moderate.

But more poll respondents, 48 percent, said they believe Kerry cares more about people like them. Only 40 percent said they believe Bush cares about them. Respondents also said they think Kerry would be better respected among world leaders than Bush is now, according to the poll.

When asked if Kerry would have the respect of world leaders, 63 percent said "yes." When asked whether they think Bush has such respect now, 43 percent said "yes."

Inside Politics CNN America votes 2004

[Chiwas]

[MavKikiNYC]

NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll had Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%, Undecided 6% going into the convention.

[MavKikiNYC]

Originally posted by: Chiwas

Any audience who will listen to Bill Clinton tell them whom to believe and whom not to believe.......

[madape]

The New ABC/Wash Post Poll has some wonderfully entertaining results:


http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/p...ll_040726.html

[Chiwas]

From the Washintonpost poll:

If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, or John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats? (registered voters)

Bush 49%
Kerry 48%


Edit: Source: A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted by telephone July 22-25, 2004, among a random national sample of 1,202 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, PA

[Chiwas]

NYT's:

13. Do you think of John Kerry as more of a liberal, a moderate, or a
conservative?

7/04 All voters
Liberal 49
Moderate 29
Conservative 8
DK/NA 14

7/04 Dem voters
Liberal 32
Moderate 43
Conservative 11
DK/NA 15

2004 DEM Delegates
Liberal 24
Moderate 69
Conservative 2
DK/NA 6

[u2sarajevo]

Originally posted by: Chiwas
NYT's:

13. Do you think of John Kerry as more of a liberal, a moderate, or a
conservative?

7/04 All voters
Liberal 49
Moderate 29
Conservative 8
DK/NA 14

7/04 Dem voters
Liberal 32
Moderate 43
Conservative 11
DK/NA 15

Wow, they polled 101 percent of Dem voters?

2004 DEM Delegates
Liberal 24
Moderate 69
Conservative 2
DK/NA 6

Wow, 101 percent of Dem Delegates too. Something doesn't add up there.. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[Chiwas]

Don't be so conservative with maths, u2. Try to be moderated (mod? moderated? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-confused.gif[/img] )

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[madape]

New Poll Shows No Boost for Kerry
A new Zogby poll out Friday shows the Kerry-Edwards ticket steady with 48 percent of likely voters. The same poll from July 7-9, listed Kerry-Edwards with 48 percent of the vote, three weeks before the convention. Political analysts say since 1964, the typical post-convention boost has given candidates a six-percent increase at the polls.

The new poll also shows the Bush-Cheney ticket losing a few points, and the undecided voter numbers increasing by three points.

(7/30/2004)
- By Jill Schroeder, WILX-TV, MI

[madape]

The Gallup poll shows a post-convention 4 point bounce for BUSH.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...ll-kerry_x.htm

There is one word to describe this year's DNC - FAILURE.

[Dooby]

Originally posted by: madape
The Gallup poll shows a post-convention 4 point bounce for BUSH.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...ll-kerry_x.htm

There is one word to describe this year's DNC - FAILURE.

Shocking.

[MavKikiNYC]

I watched a little bit of the DNC, but found it kind of artificial--like a twinky.

I'm watching a Bush rally from Saturday in Pennsylvania (Chez Terry) on C-span. He was introduced by Lynn Swann, and the crowd is responding hot......HOT.

I hope this is reminiscent of the 2000 campaign where Republican support of Bush ran much deeper and more intensely than that of the Democrats for Al Bore.

Surely this is good.

[Chiwas]

Couldn't find other reason.

[Mavdog]

Polls Mixed on Kerry Post-Convention Gain

By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The jury is out on whether presidential nominee John Kerry got a 'bounce' in the polls after the Democratic National Convention. Some surveys suggest he did; in others, he did not.

An ABC-Washington Post poll showed Kerry and running mate John Edwards slightly ahead among registered voters, with 50 percent to 44 percent for President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. Independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) and Peter Camejo (news - web sites) were at 2 percent. Among likely voters, they were tied with Bush-Cheney in a three-way matchup.

A Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave Kerry-Edwards a narrow lead over Bush-Cheney, 49 percent to 42 percent, with 3 percent for Nader-Camejo. Kerry-Edwards and Bush-Cheney were essentially tied in a Newsweek poll in early July — 47 percent for Kerry-Edwards and 44 percent for Bush-Cheney with 3 percent for Nader-Camejo.

Two polls taken after Kerry's speech last Thursday showed little or no movement.

_A CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll released Monday found Bush and Cheney slightly ahead among likely voters in a three-way matchup, with 51 percent to 45 percent for Kerry-Edwards and 2 percent for Nader-Camejo. The two major party tickets were tied among registered voters in a three-way race.

_A CBS News poll released Monday found the Democratic ticket slightly ahead of Bush-Cheney, 48 percent to 43 percent with Nader at 3 percent. The three-way race in early July was tied with Kerry-Edwards at 45 percent, Bush-Cheney at 43 percent and Nader-Camejo at 5 percent.

Pollsters predicted before the convention that there would be little, if any, bounce in polls after the gathering. Voters are sharply divided and paying close attention to the race, limiting any post-convention boost in the polls.

The polls found Kerry had solidified his support. In the ABC-Post poll, for example, the share of Kerry supporters who are "strongly" behind him increased to 85 percent, from 72 percent before last week's convention.

The ABC-Post poll of 940 registered voters taken Friday through Sunday has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Newsweek poll of 1,010 registered voters was taken Thursday and Friday and the CBS poll of 881 registered voters was taken Friday Saturday and Sunday, both with margins of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll of 1,129 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[Chiwas]

AP Poll: Kerry narrows security issue gap

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrat John Kerry, whose nominating convention highlighted his war service and focused on national security, has narrowed the gap on President Bush's strong suit of protecting the country, according to an Associated Press poll that shows the race remains tight.
Flanked by his Vietnam crewmates, Kerry delivered an acceptance speech last week laden with references to patriotism, his decorated military record and his qualifications for commander in chief — a theme underscored by speaker after speaker over the four-day gathering.

The images and rhetoric registered with a number of voters.

In the AP survey conducted Tuesday through Thursday, 43% said Kerry would do a better job of protecting the country — a gain of 8 percentage points for the Democratic presidential nominee from a similar survey in March.

Kerry improved his standing on the issue with a demographic group that tends to lean Republican: men under age 45.

Bush still has the advantage on the issue, with 52% saying the Republican incumbent would do better in protecting the nation. But Bush's percentage on the issue has dropped 6 percentage points since March, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs, and the latest survey was taken as he faced questions about dated intelligence for increased terror alerts.

Edison Montgomery, a 59-year-old Democrat from Lancaster, Ohio, said that after watching the convention he has grown more comfortable with Kerry — especially on whether he is capable of protecting the nation.

"He seems like he's got a good head on his shoulders," Montgomery said.

Despite the gains for the Democratic challenger, Bush and Kerry remained essentially tied in the presidential race — an outcome similar to where they've been for months.

In a three-way matchup, Kerry and running mate John Edwards have the backing of 48%, Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney 45% and independent Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo 3%.

The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

In July, Bush had a slight lead over Kerry — 49% to 45% — with 3% backing Nader.

Kerry also improved his standing in state polls in two swing states — Florida and New Hampshire — pulling slightly ahead of Bush since the convention, according to the American Research Group.

Although Bush's ratings have dipped in other areas, including his stewardship of the war in Iraq and his handling of the economy, 51% still approve of the president's handling of the war on terrorism to 48% who disapprove in the AP poll.

"I don't think Kerry's ready to be president," said Laura Weber, a 37-year-old Republican from Pierre, S.D. "Bush would be more decisive."

The economy has been improving in fits and starts but continues to be a troublesome issue for Bush. Fewer than half — 46% — said they approve of the Republican's handling of the economy, about the same percentage as July.

Kerry held a clear advantage over Bush on the question of who would do better at creating jobs, with 55% naming Kerry and 39% saying Bush — a number essentially unchanged from March.

The job numbers released Friday are likely to reinforce that perception.

New figures on job growth in July were far below analysts' predictions, with only 32,000 jobs being added — a potentially troubling sign that the rough patch the economy hit in June was not an isolated problem despite 11 consecutive months of jobs growth. Analysts were expecting the economy to add anywhere from 215,000 to 247,000 jobs in July.

All total, 1.1 million jobs have been lost since Bush took office in January 2001.

"We have a long way to go on jobs," said Cara Easterly, a 37-year-old Democrat from the Seattle area. "I don't think Bush is focused on the problem. He's more focused on what's going on outside the country."

Strong support for Bush and Kerry now is about even, with 32% saying they are backers of the Republican and 31% saying their candidate is Kerry. In July, Bush was slightly ahead of Kerry in intensity of support.

"I think President Bush has done an excellent job," said Linda Roberts, a conservative Republican from Liberal, Kan. "He's a Christian. I don't believe there's any reason to kill babies by abortion. I don't believe in gay marriage. I believe he is for equal rights, but also for God's rights."

The AP-Ipsos poll surveyed 1,001 adults, including 798 registered voters.

[dude1394]

CaptainsQuarters

Bush Approval Numbers Trending Upwards: Rasmussen

Rasmussen reports in its daily tracking poll that George Bush's approval numbers have risen to their highest point since before the Democratic convention, showing a remarkable resiliency and the ineffectiveness of the rehashed attacks on display at Fleet Center last week:

Fifty-three percent (53%) of American voters say they approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President. Another 46% disapprove.

The past three days represent the President's highest ratings since the Democratic National Convention began. In fact, today's reading is the highest in over a month. Bush has reached the 53% Approval level just three times since mid-May.

Among those who work in the private sector, 58% give the President their Approval. Just 49% of government employees do the same. Among those who are retired, Bush earns a 51% Approval rating.

As one might expect, Bush's approval rating dropped for a period of time after the close of the convention -- by a point, and only for three days. After that, Bush has rebounded to his best numbers since late winter, and even when it dropped, it never went below 50%.

While the head-to-head numbers have not changed -- Kerry remains ahead but inside the margin of error -- one other question should give the Kerry campaign some nightmares, considering Kerry's emphasis today on NPR on getting out of Iraq as quickly as possible. A majority of those polled feel that stabilizing Iraq as a free and democratic country is more important than bringing American troops home, 51%-39%. That twelve-point gap will loom large as the Democrats continue to advocate a cut-and-run strategy.