Beloved Dirk's declining shooting touch - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

ghazi · 03-30-2009, 02:26 PM

Well guys I was bored today and I was looking at stats and they kinda confirmed what my eye balls had been telling me: Dirk's shooting by his lofty standards is not that great this year!

The formula for True shooting % is total points scored * 50 / field goal attempts + (free throw attempts * .44). Using this formula for Dirk his TS % this year is 55.5, which is his worst since his ROOKIE season!

His best TS % year of course was his 90/50/40 year, at 60.5%

The interesting thing last year after the Kidd trade was Dirk was an absolute monster. 25.4 PPG on 17.7 shots. 50% from the field, 89% from the line, and 48% from behind the arc. Damn near close to the 90/50/50 club! His true shooting % was 61.4%, which if it was extrapolated over a whole year would be his career high.

It is a shame that Dirk's monsterous rise in production was offset by J-Ho's significant dip. Who knows how last year turns out if J-Ho didn't mail it in?

But since the ASB this year he's only shooting 45.8% from the field, and has only made 11 of 36 3-pointers. his true shooting % is 52.9% since the ASB.

But this year our beloved Dirk's TS % is down because he takes less threes and only makes them at 36%, gets to the line less frequently, and is "only" shooting 47% from the field.

To put in perspective, Dirk has 12 more points this year than he did all of last year, but it's required 125 more shots!

So what do we make of all this? Is Dirk's shooting down because the surrounding lack of offensive talent is forcing him into a higher volume of lesser quality shots? Is it age? Is he declining? Nursing an injury? Is he sapped of his injury because of the heart break of the refs stealing our beloved 2006 NBA Championship and the Warriors hitting a bunch of fluky shots along with the marginal basketball product of this year? I dunno!

Dirk is far from the problem for the beloved Mavs of course, but he is not playing at the level we need him to. Just my opinion. Not hating on our beloved Dirk, just pointing out that his shooting and efficiency has really dipped this year and maybe has cost us 2-3 games that we would've otherwise won.

Also, Dirk's only shooting 39% over the last 5 games. I'm sure he'll get out of the slump, just saying.

Some more stats:

From the stand point of PER, this is his worst year since 2003-2004, it's also his worst year as far as rebound rate since that year.

Sorry if this post is too "statty"

.

But discuss amongst yourselves.

DevinHarriswillstart · 03-30-2009, 02:42 PM

This is why I don't pay a lot of attention to stats. Dirk is having a great year and yes his PER is down a bit because he is forced to do more with the rest of the team being injured/inconsistent. You can tell he is forcing the issue at times but because he has to. I think his clutch play for the most part has been there though. I haven't seen his shooting touch decline at all really. Age and fatigue do have a slight impact but with my own eyes, I haven't seen this so-called decline your stats say. Would we love Dirk to drive more? Sure, but then he risks that ankle snapping. If the refs actually did their jobs and called fouls when other teams blantantly foul him, then he would surely shoot more fts. As for threes, he just doesn't take as many. Who knows if that is coaching or a fluke or what but he simply doesn't take as many.

"He is not playing at the level we need him to"...that is just pure nonsense IMO. I think Dirk is having a great season. Remember that he is one of the only consistently good players on the team this season. He is having quite a burden to shoulder, especially with him playing in the Olympics this summer.

purplefrog · 03-30-2009, 03:11 PM

Stranger · 03-30-2009, 04:56 PM

That Pac-man chart is hilarious!

AxdemxO · 03-30-2009, 03:41 PM

I dont know much about stats. But its obvious to anyone that watches Dirk play that he is not the same shooter he was 2 years ago. Van Gundy pointed that out as well during the game against Cleveland.

** It is now a give that Dirk will miss about 5 wide open shots a game.

BGMaverick9 · 03-30-2009, 03:51 PM

Man...it's definitely a slow day...

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxdemxO

I dont know much about stats. But its obvious to anyone that watches Dirk play that he is not the same shooter he was 2 years ago. Van Gundy pointed that out as well during the game against Cleveland.

** It is now a give that Dirk will miss about 5 wide open shots a game.

That may be true, but it's not to the point where some say he's done and he's going to fall off the map quickly. I think some facets of his offensive game are pretty much going away...either by choice or whatever, but it's going to take quite a while for the shooting touch to go away. The only thing that will push the timetable is if he is continued to be the horse with not a lot support. He's still a lethal/deadly shooter and he should be for quite a while.

SMC0007 · 03-30-2009, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BGMaverick9

Man...it's definitely a slow day...

That may be true, but it's not to the point where some say he's done and he's going to fall off the map quickly. I think some facets of his offensive game are pretty much going away...either by choice or whatever, but it's going to take quite a while for the shooting touch to go away. The only thing that will push the timetable is if he is continued to be the horse with not a lot support. He's still a lethal/deadly shooter and he should be for quite a while.

The best thing Dirk can do for himself is STOP playing ball in the offseason. The next best thing is to hit the weights and hire a better personal coach than Holger. Maybe not ditch him completely but at least get a someone that focuses on Defense. Hire a personal trainer to help bulk up, His shooting touch will be fine if his legs are fresh.

BGMaverick9 · 03-30-2009, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

The best thing Dirk can do for himself is STOP playing ball in the offseason. The next best thing is to hit the weights and hire a better personal coach than Holger. Maybe not ditch him completely but at least get a someone that focuses on Defense. Hire a personal trainer to help bulk up, His shooting touch will be fine if his legs are fresh.

He really does need to stop with the participation with the German National Team. He may feel he owes them more, but he's done all he can with that situation, he helped carry them to the friggin Olympics.

Last I checked...if you're looking for a defensive coach, I heard Avery is still free.

He does deserve blame, but it can definitely get way out of hand when it's delivered at him. I agree with the last few posters, he needs help. It's like he's the QB but it's even worse. He'll definitely get all the blame but I don't really think he gets the ultimate credit or respect he really deserves. Outside of Jet, he really doesn't have another dependable scoring threat with him. He needs Jet and at least another player who can bring 15-18 points on a consistent basis. It's going to have to get addressed in a major way in the offseason. They've got quite a few directions they can go with their assets going into the summer.

SMC0007 · 03-30-2009, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BGMaverick9

He really does need to stop with the participation with the German National Team. He may feel he owes them more, but he's done all he can with that situation, he helped carry them to the friggin Olympics.

Last I checked...if you're looking for a defensive coach, I heard Avery is still free.

He does deserve blame, but it can definitely get way out of hand when it's delivered at him. I agree with the last few posters, he needs help. It's like he's the QB but it's even worse. He'll definitely get all the blame but I don't really think he gets the ultimate credit or respect he really deserves. Outside of Jet, he really doesn't have another dependable scoring threat with him. He needs Jet and at least another player who can bring 15-18 points on a consistent basis. It's going to have to get addressed in a major way in the offseason. They've got quite a few directions they can go with their assets going into the summer.

Agree with ya on the national team.

And maybe we should look into this Avery guy, but I was thinking more like a personal/player coach to work specifically on his individual defense etc..

Ya know, I think a lot of people here on this board and in this city in general give Dirk the respect he deserves. I also think there are some folks on here that refuse to blame him and over defend him to counter any of the criticism he should get. Now some are credible complaints, others are outrageous and some is just flat out frustration from a bad game or a loss.
If we didn't have him we would be F'd, no denying that. 95% of my frustration with Dirk is deeper than his offensive game or him missing shots.

CadBane · 03-30-2009, 03:48 PM

Yeah, except you seem to think wide open shots are every miss.

darkwitzki · 03-30-2009, 04:06 PM

"Beloved" sounds gayish..

RareMilk · 03-30-2009, 05:10 PM

Well isn't it a bit late for Dirk to consider defensive training. I say he rests in the off season and just hopefully find that shooting stroke (he always had) and perfect it.

Justin Credible · 03-30-2009, 05:11 PM

I think the main reason is that Dirk simply isn't as confident in his shot as he should be. He's an absolutely fantastic shooter that, believe it or not, isn't exactly far behind Kobe in terms of career PPG.

That being said he simply doesn't have what he needs.. a solid and consistent shooter standing right next to him. If it were Dirk/Terry/_______ on the floor I'm sure that his percentages would go back up in a heartbeat. Remember that what was arguably Dirk's best season was the season that Terry and Howard both had great seasons and both were right next to him. Combine that with the fact that we had a PG that loved to drive in the paint and you had a winning situation for both the team and Dirk.

Murphy3 · 03-30-2009, 05:28 PM

Honestly, I think he's probably worn out from having little offensive help. I'm sure it's not easy. I had always wondered what type of player he'd be if he wasn't playing on an explosive offensive team.. You always saw the AI's of the world that would get a free pass for hitting 40% of their shots simply because they had to keep shooting because there was no one else on their team that could score (obviously, we're talking about his philly days).

I think you're seeing that it obviously has a negative impact on some of his percentages.. But, you can also see that he's more than capable of staying efficient even while having to carry more of a burden. But is that what you want?... Obviously, Dirk carrying even more of a burden doesn't mean good things for the Mavs.. It pretty much always means bad things for any superstar. There has to be help. When there's not help on a consistent basis, the player begins to wear down. We're seeing that. It's a long season for a superstar when you have to rely on the likes of JJ Barea and Jason Kidd to put the ball in the bucket.

tcat075 · 03-30-2009, 05:35 PM

I don't think Dirk is without blame, but he's really been a workhorse for us. Regulary plays 38+ minutes, and the guys over 30. Couple that with the Olympics, and I think part of this is because of the fatigue this season has put on him.

fluid.forty.one · 03-30-2009, 06:15 PM

Good stats but that "beloved" crap is such a beating.

Murphy3 · 03-30-2009, 06:51 PM

asdf

tcat075 · 03-30-2009, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

asdf

I completely agree. Excellent post.

Bayliss · 03-30-2009, 07:05 PM

Dirk's shooting is fine. His FG% is down because he has to take most of the bailout shots than in years past. He is the one that has to hit all the difficult shots.

Dirk is having one of his best seasons in a while. I'll take this version of Dirk over the , 00-01 Dirk, 01-02 Dirk and the 03-04 Dirk any day of the week.

Dirkadirkastan · 03-30-2009, 07:30 PM

I hope at some point we'll see how he does on a great team again.

Five-ofan · 03-30-2009, 08:32 PM

do you guys understand how awful the supporting offensive cast around him is??? Since jet broke his hand hes had a worse supporting cast that kobe or lebron ever had at any point in their careers. Jet hasnt shot worth a crap since he broke his hand and josh has been out. So his offensive support has consisted of a shooter who cant shoot and not a single other double figure scorer. Thats histerically bad.

ghazi · 03-30-2009, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

do you guys understand how awful the supporting offensive cast around him is??? Since jet broke his hand hes had a worse supporting cast that kobe or lebron ever had at any point in their careers. Jet hasnt shot worth a crap since he broke his hand and josh has been out. So his offensive support has consisted of a shooter who cant shoot and not a single other double figure scorer. Thats histerically bad.

I disagree with this.

Five-ofan · 03-31-2009, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghazi

I disagree with this.

when did either have worse?

ghazi · 03-31-2009, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

when did either have worse?

Kobe from 2005-2007.

Five-ofan · 04-03-2009, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghazi

Kobe from 2005-2007.

the lakers in 05 had odom, caron butler and chucky atkins(who was essentially the jet of the last few years before this year. He made every open shot he got)

the lakers have never had less than 3 players other than kobe average double figures during those years. Plus he always had lamar odom as his second best player and was better than people give him credit for. At worst the talent was comparable to this years mavs team around dirk only those teams didnt win anywhere near as much as this one.

Fidel · 03-30-2009, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

do you guys understand how awful the supporting offensive cast around him is??? Since jet broke his hand hes had a worse supporting cast that kobe or lebron ever had at any point in their careers. Jet hasnt shot worth a crap since he broke his hand and josh has been out. So his offensive support has consisted of a shooter who cant shoot and not a single other double figure scorer. Thats histerically bad.

BINGO!

And there really isn´t much else to say about it. Without Dirk this current team is in the bottom 3rd of the league. There are a couple guys who play some good minutes for the Mavs right now who wouldn´t even make a 10 deep rotation for the other western playoff teams.

Actually I think it´s pretty amazing what Dirk is still able to do despite the fact he´s the only player opposing teams have to worry about.

BGMaverick9 · 03-30-2009, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fidel

BINGO!

And there really isn´t much else to say about it. Without Dirk this current team is in the bottom 3rd of the league. There are a couple guys who play some good minutes for the Mavs right now who wouldn´t even make a 10 deep rotation for the other western playoff teams.

Actually I think it´s pretty amazing what Dirk is still able to do despite the fact he´s the only player opposing teams have to worry about.

The part that worries the crap out of me is when I see random lineups on the court like:
JJ, Green, Singleton, Bass, Hollins

It's not the fact that it's those players specifically, it's the thought that eventually there will be a time where those kind of players will fill the role of a starting 5 for the Dallas Mavericks. It's just the nature of the beast, everyone has a low tide and a high tide.

This summer is probably the biggest one for this organization for a long time.

Fidel · 03-30-2009, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BGMaverick9

The part that worries the crap out of me is when I see random lineups on the court like:
JJ, Green, Singleton, Bass, Hollins

It's not the fact that it's those players specifically, it's the thought that eventually there will be a time where those kind of players will fill the role of a starting 5 for the Dallas Mavericks. It's just the nature of the beast, everyone has a low tide and a high tide.

This summer is probably the biggest one for this organization for a long time.

Hollins may become a player.

I think the FO has made a couple mistakes over the years. Constant roster management to stay on top is one of the hardest things to do in the NBA. Right now the Mavs are just riding Dirk. Summer sure will be intersting. Depending on the overall financial situation of other teams we might be in a position to turn this thing around.

BGMaverick9 · 03-30-2009, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fidel

Hollins may become a player.

I think the FO has made a couple mistakes over the years. Constant roster management to stay on top is one of the hardest things to do in the NBA. Right now the Mavs are just riding Dirk. Summer sure will be intersting. Depending on the overall financial situation of other teams we might be in a position to turn this thing around.

Sure he could...I just meant in general that a bunch of bench players could end up being what we have to throw out there and roll with them. Teams that are years away from becoming a factor have that as their starting line-ups now or slightly better.

They (FO) have clearly made some wrong choices and rode some of their horses longer than they needed to and fell in love with their own guys. The core, as we know it, has more than likely run it's course so we need to revamp it and we have the pieces to do so. We just have to figure out how to make it work and have it co-exist.

kg_veteran · 03-30-2009, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

do you guys understand

Unfortunately, no.

Fidel · 03-30-2009, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kg_veteran

Unfortunately, no.

Care to elaborate?

With Howard out and Jet out of rhythm after the injury I don´t see another capable, consistent scorer on the Mavs except Dirk. Who are you thinking of?

CadBane · 03-30-2009, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fidel

Care to elaborate?

With Howard out and Jet out of rhythm after the injury I don´t see another capable, consistent scorer on the Mavs except Dirk. Who are you thinking of?

I could be wrong, but I think he meant that other people still don't get this cogent point, not that he himself fails to comprehend it. At least I hope.

Fidel · 03-30-2009, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadBane

I could be wrong, but I think he meant that other people still don't get this cogent point, not that he himself fails to comprehend it. At least I hope.

Of course, that´s probably what he meant. It´s late over here in Germany and I should go to sleep. Sorry KG.

Justin Credible · 03-30-2009, 10:26 PM

I still think that people underrate the supporting cast that Dirk has. It's not that the cast isn't good, it's that they aren't being played into their strengths.

Granted, I 110% agree with the fact that Dirk definitely needs another scorer or two next to him, but that's not to say that the entire team (sans Dirk) is garbage.

Murphy3 · 04-07-2009, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin Credible

I still think that people underrate the supporting cast that Dirk has.

Wow, not me.

Justin Credible · 03-30-2009, 11:04 PM

I heard an interview with Cuban on the Michael Irvin show that said everything that I needed to hear.. He was talking about the free agent bonanza:

"We have the most powerful thing in the world to work with, and that's money."

THAT makes me eager to see what's going on this summer and really makes me believe that Bosh is an option.

BGMaverick9 · 03-30-2009, 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin Credible

I heard an interview with Cuban on the Michael Irvin show that said everything that I needed to hear.. He was talking about the free agent bonanza:

"We have the most powerful thing in the world to work with, and that's money."

THAT makes me eager to see what's going on this summer and really makes me believe that Bosh is an option.

When was that?

Justin Credible · 03-30-2009, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BGMaverick9

When was that?

I listened to it probably a month ago or so. I have a 5 hour class in the morning so I don't have time to dig, but I'll see if I can find it.

BGMaverick9 · 03-31-2009, 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin Credible

I listened to it probably a month ago or so. I have a 5 hour class in the morning so I don't have time to dig, but I'll see if I can find it.

Oh don't worry about it. If that's a good time estimate, then that's good enough for me. I just wanted to know how current it was.

I might be drinking the kool-aid but I believe that there will be some major changes in the offseason. It's just built up to that point and he seems like he'll be fed up with it to the point of actually making big shake-ups.

Justin Credible · 03-31-2009, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BGMaverick9

When was that?

Dug up the link:

Mark Cuban interview ~ Michael Irvin show

If that link doesn't work, try this one. Scroll down a bit to 2/26 (it was just a bit longer ago than I thought).

30 minute podcast IIRC, so you might have to sit for a moment when listening. I think that the trade conversation (as well as the Avery conversation and the Harris/Kidd trade) was well worth listening to the entire interview. Actually, I think I first came across it when I was just trolling here, but I might have found it when just googling around for information and whatnot.