The Preemptive "I Told You Dirk Would Return to Greatness" Thread - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

ReDirkulous Tyme · 02-25-2013, 01:18 PM

Prediction. Dirk will, over the last 30 games of the season, average over 22ppg, over 7.5 rebounds, and will shoot over 48% from the field. There is a strong feeling among the misinformed on this forum that Dirk will never again attain the dominance he exemplified during the 2011 championship run. Disrespectively, I vehemently disagree. If I wasn't in class at the moment, I'd prolly go and pull about 8-10 quotes from either espndallas or thetwomangame where Dirk is quoted as saying that he is just about as healthy as he has ever been, he thinks he can still be as dominant as he was in the past, and he plans to continue this dominance for at least another 2 years (or so), before relegating himself to a glorified 7 foot floor-spacer. Sure, you can make the argument that yesterday's game was an aberration, but you would be wrong. It is simply the first complete game that Dirk has played, and you can damn-well be sure that this type of game can be expected from Dirk on any/every given night for the rest of the season. I would be HIGHLY surprised if Dirk doesn't put together a hell-of-a last 30 games. Not only is Dirk fighting for a 13th straight playoff bid (which I can guarantee, he cares about getting, regardless of seed), but he is fighting for the city of Dallas, and for the Mavs organization going forward. Next summer, if the perception of Dirk is that he has lost his dominance, it will be virtually impossible to attract a big-name free agent. However, if over these last 30 games Dirk goes off like I know he will, I think we have a great chance of attracting a couple big-name free agents over the next couple years.

I'll conclude with this, you are all fools for doubting the Dirkinator, the German Titan will have his retribution...just wait.

DirkFTW · 02-25-2013, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

Prediction. Dirk will, over the last 30 games of the season, average over 22ppg, over 7.5 rebounds, and will shoot over 48% from the field. There is a strong feeling among the misinformed on this forum that Dirk will never again attain the dominance he exemplified during the 2011 championship run.

I too expect Dirk to improve, but the 2011 run numbers were 27.7 pts, 8.1 rebounds, 48.5% shooting. A tweak to your prediction would more directly contrast the sentiment that the 2011 run's watermark cannot be maintained again.

markus1234 · 02-25-2013, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

I'll conclude with this, you are all fools for doubting the Dirkinator

.....

saclare · 02-25-2013, 02:10 PM

Very bold of you to start this thread after yesterday's game...

So brave

ReDirkulous Tyme · 02-25-2013, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saclare

Very bold of you to start this thread after yesterday's game...

So brave

Actually, yesterday's game was the reason I started this thread....you're very bold for actually typing out such an idiotic post.

Edit: Also, if we make the playoffs, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him average 28ppg with 9+ boards per game (directed toward whoever it was that compared my prediction for regular season stats to my non-existent prediction for potential playoff stats)

saclare · 02-25-2013, 03:47 PM

Ha...free to your opinion. But if you were a part of the calm and collective around this forum, concerning Dirk, then you wouldn't feel the need to start a thread like this.

So you're basically predicting Dirk to match (in some areas predicting below) his career averages for the rest of the season? If anything, go out on a limb and say he outproduces those averages. Hell, I will. He's back to being healthy and the offense surrounding him is so bad that he'll be forced to outproduce for the Mavs to stay in games.

ReDirkulous Tyme · 02-25-2013, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saclare

Ha...free to your opinion. But if you were a part of the calm and collective around this forum, concerning Dirk, then you wouldn't feel the need to start a thread like this.

So you're basically predicting Dirk to match (in some areas predicting below) his career averages for the rest of the season? If anything, go out on a limb and say he outproduces those averages. Hell, I will. He's back to being healthy and the offense surrounding him is so bad that he'll be forced to outproduce for the Mavs to stay in games.

Trust me when I say there is nothing I want less than to be part of any "group" of people/thoughts/ideologies on this forum. There are around 6-7 posters, a couple of which rarely even post anymore, who I actually think capable of having an intellectually sound debate over basketball. The rest of you, while its clear you watch the games, seem absolutely incapable of looking at anything other than our W/L record and people's shooting percentages (i'm exaggerating to some extent). You can't understand that regardless of the outcome, Cuban's decision at the time to burn our championship roster WAS THE RIGHT MOVE. And here's a revelation for ya, AT THE TIME, getting rid of Tyson WAS THE RIGHT MOVE. Those around here who can't grasp these concepts....well...ya'll exemplify my previous points.

saclare · 02-25-2013, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

Trust me when I say there is nothing I want less than to be part of any "group" of people/thoughts/ideologies on this forum. There are around 6-7 posters, a couple of which rarely even post anymore, who I actually think capable of having an intellectually sound debate over basketball. The rest of you, while its clear you watch the games, seem absolutely incapable of looking at anything other than our W/L record and people's shooting percentages (i'm exaggerating to some extent). You can't understand that regardless of the outcome, Cuban's decision at the time to burn our championship roster WAS THE RIGHT MOVE. And here's a revelation for ya, AT THE TIME, getting rid of Tyson WAS THE RIGHT MOVE. Those around here who can't grasp these concepts....well...ya'll exemplify my previous points.

We are referencing the same groups/ideas/things/etc... I think you are misinformed or not informed at all as to my stance to everything you just posted. Furthermore, I'm very involved in the intricacies of NBA basketball, save some of the in-depth CBA knowledge that I rely on this forum and other posters to fill the gaps. Those said posters don't or occasionally post here because the season is what it is. The ceiling is a 1st round exit, and the floor is 10th-11th in the Western Conference.

Back to the topic of this thread, and I'm not so sure where your rant came from, but Dirk is back, and I never doubted he wouldn't return to form. I honestly think Dirk has about 3 more years of high level play. His game promotes that idea, and I think his previous injury won't change that potential outcome.

For this year, it's a pretty safe bet, and not "I told you so" material to claim he will post those numbers for the rest of the year. They are below career averages and Dirk will take on more offensive responsibility than he has in recent memory with this current roster. Again, not a very bold prediction, but whatever.

DirkFTW · 02-25-2013, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

Edit: Also, if we make the playoffs, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him average 28ppg with 9+ boards per game (directed toward whoever it was that compared my prediction for regular season stats to my non-existent prediction for potential playoff stats)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

There is a strong feeling among the misinformed on this forum that Dirk will never again attain the dominance he exemplified during the 2011 championship run. Disrespectively, I vehemently disagree.

If you're not comfortable making that prediction, that's fine. But it seems odd (contradictory) to "vehemently disagree" with people who share that discomfort. And I don't see how you plan to defuse the "strong feeling among the misinformed on this forum that Dirk will never again attain the dominance he exemplified during the 2011 championship run" ... by setting the bar below the 2011 championship run.

ReDirkulous Tyme · 02-25-2013, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirkFTW

If you're not comfortable making that prediction, that's fine. But it seems odd (contradictory) to "vehemently disagree" with people who share that discomfort. And I don't see how you plan to defuse the "strong feeling among the misinformed on this forum that Dirk will never again attain the dominance he exemplified during the 2011 championship run" ... by setting the bar below the 2011 championship run.

never was intending to set his playoff performance bar. And saying he will return to that form doesn't necessarily mean he puts up 30+ for every remaining game of the season. I was simply implying that, when motivated, he can/will be able to put up those numbers whenever/wherever he wants.

DirkFTW · 02-25-2013, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

never was intending to set his playoff performance bar. And saying he will return to that form doesn't necessarily mean he puts up 30+ for every remaining game of the season. I was simply implying that, when motivated, he can/will be able to put up those numbers whenever/wherever he wants.

I'm still confused as to what you think you're proving if you are right...

You think Dirk will "return to greatness" and everyone who thinks he cannot reach his 2011 playoff numbers are "misinformed."

But you don't think he could hit those 2011 playoff averages for the remaining 30 games of the regular season? (Not sure where you got 30+ ppg...) Is the "greatness" he is returning to less than his 2011 playoff form? If so, how does that help you defuse the argument that Dirk is on a slow decline?

The playoff run was only 21-games, so maybe you'd be more comfortable with a smaller window? Or is it that regular-season Dirk is worse than playoff-Dirk? But then you say that Dirk can do it "whenever/wherever," meaning that because you don't think he will, you believe he will not be motivated over the last 30 games...? (Your original post demonstrates you believe that to be false).

Look, maybe only 6-7 people have a basketball IQ high enough to speak to you about the game we all enjoy watching... but those other posters you dismiss as beneath you have legitimate concerns: Father Time is undefeated. It would be awesome if you could enlighten this forum with your insight from studying to be in this field. I just don't see how this prediction gets us there.

ReDirkulous Tyme · 02-25-2013, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirkFTW

I'm still confused as to what you think you're proving if you are right...

You think Dirk will "return to greatness" and everyone who thinks he cannot reach his 2011 playoff numbers are "misinformed."

But you don't think he could hit those 2011 playoff averages for the remaining 30 games of the regular season? (Not sure where you got 30+ ppg...) Is the "greatness" he is returning to less than his 2011 playoff form? If so, how does that help you defuse the argument that Dirk is on a slow decline?

The playoff run was only 21-games, so maybe you'd be more comfortable with a smaller window? Or is it that regular-season Dirk is worse than playoff-Dirk? But then you say that Dirk can do it "whenever/wherever," meaning that because you don't think he will, you believe he will not be motivated over the last 30 games...? (Your original post demonstrates you believe that to be false).

Look, maybe only 6-7 people have a basketball IQ high enough to speak to you about the game we all enjoy watching... but those other posters you dismiss as beneath you have legitimate concerns: Father Time is undefeated. It would be awesome if you could enlighten this forum with your insight from studying to be in this field. I just don't see how this prediction gets us there.

My prediction hinges on the fact that, for the next 2 years, I think Dirk could be "The Guy" on a championship-caliber team. I can promise that this is not the wide-held opinion on this forum. My point was that you will see the "regular-season" Dirk (maybe a bit more production given the circumstance) for the rest of the regular season. Then, if/when we make the playoffs, just like Dirk does every single year, he will elevate his game to another level. He will take his 22ppg regular-season scoring average and crank it up to about 28-29ppg, he'll take his rebounding numbers up from around 8 to around 9.5. Its not that Dirk isn't motivated to put up those numbers during the regular season, its simply that he doesn't need to on a daily basis to win games. Dirk should only have to perform like that against the elite teams in the NBA, not against the bottom 1/2 of the league. That is why you will see the discrepancy between regular season and playoff numbers (this also doesn't factor in the mpg boost he'll get in the playoffs)

Dirk has learned throughout his career that he simply doesn't need to put up 26.4ppg like he did in the old days, because in the end, making the playoffs is really all that matters. He paces himself, he chooses to be less selfish and less assertive than he would typically be in a playoff-type atmosphere. In games against good competition where Dirk knows he will have to bring the rain, you'll see production like he had yesterday, whereas when we play teams such as washington/charlotte/sacramento you will likely see his production dip due to his dominance being necessary.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I think you aren't realizing the unique nature of Dirk. Father Time has simply never gone up against a rival like the Big German. His game will age more gracefully than other superstar in NBA history, barring catastrophic injury, and this point shouldn't even be up for discussion.

Personally, talent-wise, I think our current roster absolutely decimates the team we had in 2011, we just haven't gelled and the lack of a defensive presence in the middle has killed us. Having said that, I think we are MUCH closer to being back in the contending arena than most of you realize. I mean just read BG/Sike/LonghornDub's posts. I'm probably a bit more optimistic than they are, but the reasoning behind my arguments is the same (although I don't provide exact statistics to back up my claims as they do, typically I'm in the right vicinity though)

DirkFTW · 02-25-2013, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I think you aren't realizing the unique nature of Dirk. Father Time has simply never gone up against a rival like the Big German. His game will age more gracefully than other superstar in NBA history, barring catastrophic injury, and this point shouldn't even be up for discussion.

I am hoping/anticipating that's the case. Dirk is certainly unique enough that he could defy common logic.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

Personally, talent-wise, I think our current roster absolutely decimates the team we had in 2011, we just haven't gelled and the lack of a defensive presence in the middle has killed us. Having said that, I think we are MUCH closer to being back in the contending arena than most of you realize.

Yea, I think if we could instill the execution of that 2011 team into these guys, we'd be really dangerous.

spreedom · 02-26-2013, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

Personally, talent-wise, I think our current roster absolutely decimates the team we had in 2011, we just haven't gelled and the lack of a defensive presence in the middle has killed us. Having said that, I think we are MUCH closer to being back in the contending arena than most of you realize. I mean just read BG/Sike/LonghornDub's posts. I'm probably a bit more optimistic than they are, but the reasoning behind my arguments is the same (although I don't provide exact statistics to back up my claims as they do, typically I'm in the right vicinity though)

Talk about missing the point.

oilfieldtrash · 02-25-2013, 04:32 PM

I hope you're right. Dirk playing like that is the Dirk I remember.

BGMaverick9 · 02-25-2013, 04:39 PM

He was never dead or done. People who thought he was don't like to see things play out.

Dirk's Knee · 02-25-2013, 04:51 PM

Spoken like a true homer. I'll take the under with second half averages ~20 PPG and ~7 RPG, consistent with his general regular season decline since 2006. I love Dirk, but its time to find a new #1 scorer. With Dirk plus another capable of 20+ points a night, the Mavs would be a true force to be reckoned with.

SMC0007 · 02-25-2013, 05:16 PM

I just hope that another elite powerhouse member on this forum, that only really comes here every single day to read posts from people who don't even post here anymore :?, doesn't feel the need to post a "Dirk is done" thread after his next stinker!

DevinHarriswillstart · 02-26-2013, 10:58 AM

This current squad is nowhere near close to contending...sigh.

Melonhead · 02-26-2013, 11:48 AM

"Personally, talent-wise, I think our current roster absolutely decimates the team we had in 2011..."

Cuban? Is that you?

Never underestimate what the leadership of Kidd/Terry/Chandler brought to the table.

I never doubted Dirk,(i did worry) and i knew itd be January before he'd start to get his legs under him. I was kidding myself thinking OJ would be our answer though. I really thought.

Dirk's Knee · 02-26-2013, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

"Personally, talent-wise, I think our current roster absolutely decimates the team we had in 2011..."

Cuban? Is that you?

Never underestimate what the leadership of Kidd/Terry/Chandler brought to the table.

I never doubted Dirk,(i did worry) and i knew itd be January before he'd start to get his legs under him. I was kidding myself thinking OJ would be our answer though. I really thought.

Actually, I like Mayo over Terry. Have you already forgotten how inconsistent Terry's play was? How his numbers were so bad on the road? You can't pick Terry at his prime versus Mayo now, you have to compare now to now. Same thing with Collison over Kidd. No question Kidd's leadship would be a big positive, but he's just too slow and completely ineffective as a scorer. Without Mayo and Collison, whether or not to tank would've been answered the first week of the season and we'd be scouting lottery picks at this point. Not saying either are the incredible, but I actually feel both are an upgrade this season. Now Chandler's a different story. Him in place of Kaman would have a huge impact on this team defensively especially if we were still able to acquire both Brand and Bernard James. But hindsight is 20/20 and at the time you can't blame the front office for passing on him given who they thought they would be able to acquire.

saclare · 02-26-2013, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

Actually, I like Mayo over Terry. Have you already forgotten how inconsistent Terry's play was? How his numbers were so bad on the road? You can't pick Terry at his prime versus Mayo now, you have to compare now to now. Same thing with Collison over Kidd. No question Kidd's leadship would be a big positive, but he's just too slow and completely ineffective as a scorer. Without Mayo and Collison, whether or not to tank would've been answered the first week of the season and we'd be scouting lottery picks at this point. Not saying either are the incredible, but I actually feel both are an upgrade this season. Now Chandler's a different story. Him in place of Kaman would have a huge impact on this team defensively especially if we were still able to acquire both Brand and Bernard James. But hindsight is 20/20 and at the time you can't blame the front office for passing on him given who they thought they would be able to acquire.

The basis of the argument was 2011 versus now. Not now versus now.

Talent is also a commonly misconstrued word. It's an overall measurement of one's ability to do something. The 2011 team had more talent. This team has more athleticism. Huge difference.

DirkFTW · 02-26-2013, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saclare

Talent is also a commonly misconstrued word. It's an overall measurement of one's ability to do something. The 2011 team had more talent. This team has more athleticism. Huge difference.

The 2011 team accomplished more. But it frequently did so in a pleasantly surprising fashion (for me and I imagine for others), because they were not expected to. They were frequently underdogs, yet together, they produced far in excess above a straight sum of their parts. It was awesome. I don't think it was talent per se.

Dirk's Knee · 02-26-2013, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saclare

The basis of the argument was 2011 versus now. Not now versus now.

Talent is also a commonly misconstrued word. It's an overall measurement of one's ability to do something. The 2011 team had more talent. This team has more athleticism. Huge difference.

You can't compare 2011 vs now, you have to compare the 2011 players as they are playing today vs what we replaced them with. IMHO, our starting guard scenario is better with Collison and Mayo than it would be today with Terry and Kidd. But nobody in their right mind would take Kaman over Chandler, we've taken a huge hit in that area. And if you look at the Mavs historically, its almost always been weak play in the middle which was our downfall. Again, with the free agency looking the way it was, the front office took a gamble. Didn't work. Let's move on...

oilfieldtrash · 02-26-2013, 12:51 PM

Im a better player than Larry Bird. You can't compare prime Larry Bird vs me. You compare me vs a 55 year old Bird that can't walk.

SMC0007 · 02-26-2013, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilfieldtrash

Im a better player than Larry Bird. You can't compare prime Larry Bird vs me. You compare me vs a 55 year old Bird that can't walk.

Larry Bird would throttle you, NOW. Period. In embarrassing fashion.

EricaLubarsky · 02-26-2013, 02:11 PM

Dirk has gotten back to his 2004 shooting form, but I've yet to see 2010 form. What made him so deadly was not only his post and jump shooting, but his ability to drive on anyone and get inside shots. That's what completed his game and he's yet to show his ability to punish teams for playing him too close.

ReDirkulous Tyme · 02-26-2013, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Dirk has gotten back to his 2004 shooting form, but I've yet to see 2010 form. What made him so deadly was not only his post and jump shooting, but his ability to drive on anyone and get inside shots. That's what completed his game and he's yet to show his ability to punish teams for playing him too close.

given that this post seems to be the only one with even an ounce of basketball knowledge behind it, I'll go ahead and respond here.

I agree, although at this point I still think its more of a mental block than anything else. Finally, for the first time in years, Dirk is healthy, more healthy than he was last year or in the 2nd half of 2011. At this point, the only thing remaining is for him to regain complete and total confidence in his knee, which isn't too far away. And did you watch how Artest was playing him in the 4th? There were multiple times where Dirk made moves I haven't seen him make all season, and to be honest, I had flashbacks. Sent tingles up my spine. No, he isn't YET where he was in the playoffs in 2011, but he WILL get back to that level, I have absolutely no doubt.

And I also find it comical that I'm catching so much flack for simply stating credentials (of which I could probably post more) which back up my claim as being an informed/experienced analyst of the game of basketball. You guys really do make me laugh. I'm also not saying that I am, in general, more intelligent than anyone here. What I am saying is that the things some of you consider to be concrete facts are simply incorrect/misguided. Not attacking you overall intelligence, just your basketball intelligence, there is a difference, try not to kill yourself.

Aside from Tyson (who I wouldn't say just OOZED talent) name me one player on our championship roster that is more talented than their replacement here....just ONE. Sure you can go and make an argument for JJ as a backup, or maybe an injured Caron, but I can promise you won't even make a decent argument. Fact is, our championship team VASTLY overachieved, and did so as a result of the sum of our parts (meaning every single person on our team had to contribute in order to achieve the result that we witnessed). Heres another fact, this squad has VASTLY underachieved. If we played even close to our potential, the playoffs wouldn't even be a question this year. If Dirk hadn't gone under the knife at the beginning of the season and had been as healthy as he is now all year, I would be flabbergasted if we weren't in the top 3-4 in the west.

Like I said, you kids can try to troll the individual who disagrees with you and makes bold claims that our record won't necessarily reflect, but that only shows your general ineptitude regarding the topic. Stats/record do not ALWAYS tell the story, try to wrap your head around that.

edit: melonhead also makes a valuable point, the leadership of those 3 guys, and the clutchness they brought to the table in the 4th quarter in crunch time has simply been irreplaceable up to this point with this roster.

saclare · 02-26-2013, 05:59 PM

Let me get this straight, you want to compare teams from 2011 and now, but only compare how they are THIS year? I get you want to talk about replacements, but if you are arguing talent, you can't hypothetically age players two years and call it straight.

If you want to compare the talent from TWO YEARS AGO, you have to compare the player AS THEY WERE two years ago.

Kidd 2011 > Collison
Terry 2011 = Mayo (pretty damn even considering all aspects of each player's game)
Marion 2011 > Marion this year
Dirk 2011 > Dirk this year
Tyson > Kaman/Brand/Wright/whoever

For the other, terrible way of examining this...

I'd still take Kidd > Collison
Mayo > Terry
Marion --
Dirk --
Tyson > Kaman/etc.

DirkFTW · 02-26-2013, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saclare

Kidd 2011 > Collison
Terry 2011 = Mayo (pretty damn even considering all aspects of each player's game)
...
Tyson > Kaman/Brand/Wright/whoever

I'm generally agnostic on the Terry and Kidd comparisons. I miss Tyson for sure. But then VC stands out as someone who boosts this year's squad. I think he would compare somewhat to pre-injury 2011 Caron (although Caron die-hards probably just vomited in their mouths). With a healthy Caron, I'd take the 2011 squad... and my Mavs-tinted memory goggles recall that that squad was kicking ass and taking names before his and Dirk's injuries.

oilfieldtrash · 02-26-2013, 07:01 PM

The pre Caron injury 2011 mavs were something to see. Didn't they go on a 14 game win streak or something?

j0Shi · 02-26-2013, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilfieldtrash

The pre Caron injury 2011 mavs were something to see. Didn't they go on a 14 game win streak or something?

Last game of that 12-game winning streak included a 29-4 start over the Jazz. Good times.

markus1234 · 02-26-2013, 09:50 PM

Dirk has stolen Kevin Love's right knee, lol...

adonis · 02-26-2013, 10:43 PM

No one thought Dirk was done in the first place. We were just a bit over-reactive over his play after return from knee surgery.

Rick41 · 02-26-2013, 11:15 PM

21/20.

DevinHarriswillstart · 02-26-2013, 11:17 PM

saclare · 02-26-2013, 11:21 PM

Great game from Dirk. And yea, when Caron was healthy that team was REALLY clicking.

Murphy3 · 02-27-2013, 10:33 AM

Dirk's 5 best Game Scores of the season all occurred in the past 6 games. He's obviously back.

EricaLubarsky · 02-27-2013, 02:27 PM

Dirk is great but needs to do more. It's really on him to demand the ball and to set the tone of the game. He did a lot last night, but he needed to be the man and he wasn't.

markus1234 · 02-27-2013, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

he needed to be the man and he wasn't.

Dirk is not a PG/SG. Someone (Collison, Carter or Mayo) needs to deliver the ball.