This team was considerably better with Butler.

[Dtownsfinest]

Nevermind........

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I'm now confused about who 'he' is. My opinion is that Caron would have been a 26-30 mpg player at SF (he wouldn't be getting minutes at SG with any consistency), and Stevenson would have become a non-factor in the rotation, losing his minutes to Booby. The defense would have suffered on account of the latter part of that, just like it is suffering for it now.

But again, the defense dropped off well before Stevenson lost his spot to Roddy. The major event that times best with the decline in team defense is Caron's injury. Maybe that's coincidence (I doubt it), but there's no arguing that's when the decline began. You can go back and look at some box scores and you'll see what I mean. You can even start once Dirk came back, if you like (Jan. 17 @Detroit and beyond), and you'll see the numbers aren't nearly as good as November and December.

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I'm not saying it's coincidence. I'm saying Caron's absence is not uniquely deterministic of the defensive drop-off, and that your analysis is only taking half the game into account.

Very few things we talk about are "uniquely deterministic" of anything. I'm sure there are several factors that contribute to this, but a lot of them end up tracing back to Caron going out and the domino effect that had on the rotation.

It's not just about losing Caron, who's a decent defender but nothing elite. It's about all the other adjustments that had to be made to fill his void.

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

You have to admit you've been on it for a while, though. Nonetheless, obsessed is a strong word, an I apologize if my comment seemed to put you in the same class as the Kidd's-minutes guy. You bring much more to the forum than that.

I'm on it cause it doesn't get talked about enough and it's a serious problem. These guys rarely get stops anymore. They've fallen all the way to the middle of the league in defensive efficiency. As I understand it, the lowest-ranked defensive team in the past 15+ years to win a title was the '06 Heat, and they were still in the top 10.

And look, I think both sides of the ball are very important, but the thing about defense is it usually has less variance. Shooting percentages vary a lot, but your effort and execution on team defense can be relatively constant. For that reason, if you gave me a choice between an A+ defensive team with a B- offense, or vice versa, I'd always take the former.

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I'm with you on not liking the defense on guards coming off screens. But that's another issue that seems to me to be for the most part unrelated to the debate over how Caron's absence has affected the team. Caron would be spending the majority of his time guarding SFs if he were playing, and they're not the ones doing all the damage.

That's right, but again, it's the domino effect. I don't actually think Caron is some awesome defender, but it seems apparent to me that losing him has caused a ripple effect in the roster (and there are independent ripples as well, like Roddy's return) that have brought us here.

[grndmstr_c]

Scoreboard.

More seriously, this thing about the team struggling in January...they were decimated by injury, in the process of trying to find a way to survive they completely changed the way they played and lost their continuity, and when Dirk came back he was still playing on one leg for a week or two. They eventually got it together, though, and arguably had their best month of the season in February.

There have been hiccups lately, but the struggles have been defined for the most part by close losses to quality teams, a run of late-game bad luck, and a lack of lineup stability because of a string of injuries to rotation players. Deny it if you want, but there's ample evidence to suggest that Dallas can be as good without Butler (and with Booby, Peja, etc.) as they were with him (and without Booby, Peja, etc.). With regard to the argument taking place in this thread (at least as I understand it), that's the bottom line as I see it.

[Usually Lurkin]

The defense was already faltering by the time Caron was injured.

[mavs777]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

The defense was already faltering by the time Caron was injured.

When butler went down the defense hadn't given up 100+ points in 8 straight games.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Scoreboard.

More seriously, this thing about the team struggling in January...they were decimated by injury, in the process of trying to find a way to survive they completely changed the way they played and lost their continuity, and when Dirk came back he was still playing on one leg for a week or two. They eventually got it together, though, and arguably had their best month of the season in February.

They did have a great February, but it was against mostly inferior competition, and with mostly underwhelming defense.

I'm usually a pretty big advocate of "a W's a W," but I have a real distaste for lack of real, lock-down defense. That's what the Mavs have shown me during this timeframe. That characterization is a subjective assessment of mine, but it definitely finds support in the numbers.

Now, they've nevertheless showed they can win a lot of the time anyway (again, against a soft schedule), but when I watch the games, what I see is a team that can't do anything to impose its will defensively.

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Deny it if you want, but there's ample evidence to suggest that Dallas can be as good without Butler (and with Booby, Peja, etc.) as they were with him (and without Booby, Peja, etc.). With regard to the argument taking place in this thread (at least as I understand it), that's the bottom line as I see it.

I guess I just don't see that evidence. Early season, we had a team feasting on the toughest schedule in the league. Post-January, we have a team feasting (if we exclude the recent "stretch of bad luck") on one of the weaker schedules in the league, and losing to the majority of the good teams they've played.

I have a ton of belief they can get it together in the playoffs, but that's really just me being a homer and speaking from the heart.

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by mavs777

When butler went down the defense hadn't given up 100+ points in 8 straight games.

They went 3 more after he went down. (Hey, wait a minute -You're counting the game he went down in - in the 1st quarter? That probably ought to be 7 before and 4 after.)

Anyway, opponent points started going up after they played Utah on December 3.

[mavs777]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

They went 3 more after he went down. (Hey, wait a minute -You're counting the game he went down in - in the 1st quarter? That probably ought to be 7 before and 4 after.)

Anyway, opponent points started going up after they played Utah on December 3.

From December 4rth till 30th (last Caron's full game before injury): 96 PPG defensivly
From January second (first game Caron didn't play in cause of injury) till March 20: 101.1 PPG

That is a big difference.

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by mavs777

From December 4rth till 30th (last Caron's full game before injury): 96 PPG defensivly
From January second (first game Caron didn't play in cause of injury) till March 20: 101.1 PPG

That is a big difference.

Caron's injury took a month to impact the Mav's defense?

11/3 - 12/3 = 92.5
12/4 - 12/30 = 96
Caron's injury
1/2 - 2/2 = 96.625
2/4-3/1 = 100
3/4 - 3/20 = 99.5

[j0Shi]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

Caron's injury took a month to impact the Mav's defense?

No, because PPG is kind of a useless stat. We had dropoff from 103 (Dec) to 110 (Jan) in defensive efficiency. Thats huge. And the team never recovered so far. In fact, March (112 DefEff) is the worst month in that area and Butler is long gone.

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

No, because PPG is kind of a useless stat. We had dropoff from 103 (Dec) to 110 (Jan) in defensive efficiency. Thats huge. And the team never recovered so far. In fact, March (112 DefEff) is the worst month in that area and Butler is long gone.

what was November? October?

[j0Shi]

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

thanks. Where do you get your efficiency stats? It's points per 100 possessions, right?

[j0Shi]

Yes its points per 100 possessions. Check out basketball-reference.com for example. hoopdata.com also has it although they are using a slightly different (and in my eyes more inacurate) formula.

[Underdog]

Joshi, those graphs are excellent - keep up the good work!

(thought I'd mention your contributions outside the rep system for once...)

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Yes its points per 100 possessions. Check out basketball-reference.com for example. hoopdata.com also has it although they are using a slightly different (and in my eyes more inacurate) formula.

I found it at hoopdata, but couldn't find it on a convenient game log at basketball reference. What I see from the hoopdata defensive efficiency is that after the Dec. 3rd game, there was a fairly steady increase until a peak in mid-January, and we haven't come all the way back down since then.

[Rhylan]

Here's a graph I've been building of Mavs Defensive points per possession over the season w/ a trendline - this is through the SA loss. Not pretty.. clear inflection point when Caron went out.

[Underdog]

Needs a timeline under the W/L.

Needs to be bigger(smaller?).

Needs more cowbell.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by Rhylan

Here's a graph I've been building of Mavs Defensive points per possession over the season w/ a trendline - this is through the SA loss. Not pretty.. clear inflection point when Caron went out.

It looks to me like the inflection point was before the injuries to Dirk and Caron.

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by Rhylan

Here's a graph I've been building of Mavs Defensive points per possession over the season w/ a trendline -
this is through the SA loss. Not pretty.. clear inflection point when Caron went out.

I don't think there is a clear inflection point at Caron's injury. I don't think anyone could look at the individual games (your dotted line)
and pick the game where Caron was injured. (It's the 3rd L in the midst of losing 9 of 11)

In the thick curve, it's where the curve goes from concave up to concave down.

The point at which that fat red line actually turns up is much earlier, in early december.

[mavs777]

nobody is saying the defense didn't start getting worse before Caron went down, but even during that stretch where it got worse it is considerably better than it is right now

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by mavs777

nobody is saying the defense didn't start getting worse before Caron went down, but even during that stretch where it got worse it is considerably better than it is right now

ok. so the question is whether the defense that had already started to get worse while Caron was healthy would have continued to get worse if Caron was healthy.

[j0Shi]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Joshi, those graphs are excellent - keep up the good work!

(thought I'd mention your contributions outside the rep system for once...)

thx. Appreciate it

Originally Posted by Rhylan

Here's a graph I've been building of Mavs Defensive points per possession over the season w/ a trendline - this is through the SA loss. Not pretty.. clear inflection point when Caron went out.

Very interesting. I think the trendline might be influenced too much by the two horrible games efficiency-wise we had against Orlando and Detroit (both >125). It is basically saying that we were trending towards 107 (?) the time Butler went out. But actually we had a very decent stretch over the last 4 at that point with 103.1. It is even more impressive because Dirk missed 3 (and a half) of those games.

Overall though I think there is a slight decline in efficiency in late December, but its acceptable. It is nothing compared to the dropoff we experienced since the calendar switched over to 2011.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

ok. so the question is whether the defense that had already started to get worse while Caron was healthy would have continued to get worse if Caron was healthy.

It got worse more quickly once he went out. You can talk about when the "inflection" starts on the graph, but it's quite clear that the most rapid decline occurred in the early part of the new year, which is right after he went out.

Is your theory that it was already getting worse before he left, and thus it was not only destined to continue getting worse, but destined to get worse even more quickly? Regardless of whether he was healthy?

[LonghornDub]

Come back, Caron. I miss you. I miss your scent. I miss your musk.

[mavs777]

we need you.... in the first round

[SMC0007]

yus

[b_o_r]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

The defense was already faltering by the time Caron was injured.

Many people point to the Kings game in December where they had to come back to win as the decline of the defense.

[nowhereman]

[wrong thread]