Antoine Walker a big game player? Myth or reality?

[thebac]

I decided to start this thread because some people think that Walker is a guy that steps up for the big games. So does he? Some rudimentary statistical analysis follows:

Note: stats are all as of 12-27-03

Walker vs. the four other contenders (if you count MIN):

LAL 3G, 119MIN, 28-53 FG, 11-21 3PT, 3-4 FT, 2ST, 1BL, 9TO, 29REB, 10AST, 70PTS
MIN 2G, 74MIN, 8-28 FG, 0-7 3PT, 0-4 FT, 0ST, 2BL, 4TO, 16RB, 9AST, 16PTS
SAC 1G, 37MIN, 9-21 FG, 5-11 3PT, 0-0 FT, 0ST, 2BL, 4TO, 12REB, 8AST, 23PTS
SAN 2G, 81MIN, 14-37 FG, 2-11 3PT, 1-2 FT, 1ST, 1BL, 4TO, 19REB, 6AST, 31PTS

Several observations:

I feel better about the Mavs meeting the Lakers in the playoffs now, not just b/c the Mavs finally beat them in LA, but b/c of Walker: He's bringing his game against the Lakers, although his playing well hinges on his ability to knock down the three against them (and he takes 7 a game against the LAL). Even taking out the first game, he's making a respectable 6-15 from three against the LAL.

Can't say too much about Sacto yet. Only one game, and they were missing their two best players, but Walker did play well.

Against MIN and SAN the best thing about Walker is that he doesn't turn the ball over as much as he normally does. Other than that, it's ugly. Shooting 33.8% from the field and 11.1% from three (while taking 4.5 a game), plus 16.7% from the free throw line (small sample size here, though), he clearly struggles against them. He still gets a slightly below average (for him) 8.8RPG and 3.8APG, but 11.8PTS on 16.3FGA a game is not cutting it.

Overall against the four other contenders his stats are 42.4% from the field, including 36% from three, and 40% from the line. Plus .4ST, .8BL, 2.6TO, 9.5REB, 4.1AST, and 17.5PTS a game.

Compare that to his overall stats of 43.3% FG, 30.5% 3PT, 52.9% FT, .8ST, .9BL, 2.7TO, 9.7REB, 5.1AST, 17.3PTS, and it's a wash. He seems to step up against the Lakers, at least shooting-wise. He stepped up against SAC. He stunk it up against MIN and SAN.

Interesting tidbit:

His stats in wins and losses are virtually identical (in wins, 17.6PTS, 9.9REB, 5.2AST, 2.6TO, .9ST, .8BL, shooting 55% from the line, 30.1% from three, and 44.8% from the field (on 16.5FGA); in losses, 16.8PTS, 9.4REB, 5.1AST, 2.8TO, .6ST, 1.1BL, 50% from the line, 30.9% from three, but only 41.1% from the field (on 16.8FGA). Note that in losses he shoots 46.3% from two, compared to 51.0% in wins, but what drives the FG% down further is that in losses, he takes 5.7 3PT a game, compared to 4.9 in wins.

Alternatively, you could define big games as games decided by fewer than ten points.

In that case, his big-game performance is slightly different:

(Toine's big-game performances, FG, 3PT, FT (if applicable), TO, REB, AST, PTS):
10-20, 0-4, 0-1, 3, 14, 4, 20
6-20, 1-4, 1-1, 9, 17, 7, 14
4-12, 1-4, 3, 8, 1, 9
6-18, 2-8, 1-5, 1, 10, 6, 15
5-14, 2-5, 2-4, 3, 6, 1, 14
10-25, 1-7, 1-2, 1, 11, 5, 22
4-18, 0-3, 0-4 1, 10, 3, 8
9-19, 1-4, 2-4, 2, 7, 10, 21
3-14, 0-6, 1-4, 2, 7, 8, 7
4-10, 0-4, 3, 6, 6, 8
7-19, 2-5, 3-3, 2, 8, 6, 19
9-21, 5-11, 4, 12, 8, 23
6-17, 1-3, 2, 10, 8, 13

Which comes out to:
83-227 FG, 16-68 3PT, 11-28 FT, 36TO, 126REB, 73AST, 193PTS
36.6% FG, 23.5% 3PT, 39.3% FT, 2.8TO, 9.7REB, 5.6AST, 14.8PTS a game

Note also that he takes 17.5 FGA in those games, including 5.2 3PTA.

again, compare that to his overall stats of:

43.3% FG, 30.5% 3PT, 52.9% FT, 2.7TO, 9.7REB, 5.1AST, 17.3PTS a game

So, the long and short of it is, no, Walker does not step up for big games. He does step up against the Lakers, and I'm grateful for that. However, note the caveat--he mostly shoots lights out agains the Lakers, especially from three. As long as he continues to do that, I wouldn't mind him around.

I was a big (though silent) Walker supporter before I undertook this quick analysis. Now I must admit I'm wavering a bit. Maybe he's just going through a slump right now. However, what's clear is that Walker mostly puts up good stats in blowouts. With his stats, I refer to his shooting. I don't think his passing or rebounding is up for debate--he's doing a fine job in both departments, and those seem to be the constants in his game (he neither steps up nor does he falter in big games, just bringing it every night). What's inconsistent, however, is his shooting. I'd hereby like to join the crowd of those would prefer Walker shoot from close range and drastically cut down on his three point attempts. And of course, continue to be the better-than-expected rebounder and mighty fine passer that you've been so far, Antoine. But please, shoot less, and take better shots.