Kerry Takes Iowa; Dean a Distant Third

[MavKikiNYC]

Dean Lags Far Behind Edwards; Gephardt Finishes Fourth
By ADAM NAGOURNEY

Published: January 20, 2004


ES MOINES, Jan 19 — Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts won the Iowa caucuses here Monday, brushing aside the insurgent candidacy of Howard Dean with an appeal that he would be the strongest candidate the Democrats had to beat President Bush.

Senator John Edwards of North Carolina came in second, captapulting him into the first tier of contenders in a showing that ended up pushing Dr. Dean into third place.

Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri appeared headed for fourth place in his second bid for the presidency, a devastating showing that Democrats said would almost certainly force him out of the race.

Dr. Dean conceded even as Iowans were voting, and when less than half the vote had been reported.

"I'm delighted to finish in the top three," Dr. Dean said in an interview with Larry King on CNN. "On to New Hampshire."

With more than 90 percent of the precincts reporting, Mr. Kerry had almost 37.5 percent of the delegate support awarded in the caucuses. Mr. Edwards had 32 percent, Dr. Dean 18 percent, Mr. Gephardt 11 percent and Dennis Kucinich 1 percent. More than 113,000 people had participated.

The victory by Mr. Kerry would seem to validate the thoroughly unconventional campaign tack he took: to come to Iowa to replenish a candidacy that had been languishing in New Hampshire, and use an unexpected victory to power him back to life in his neighboring state. By every measure, his showing here gave him a huge lift as he headed back to New Hampshire to confront the candidacy of Gen. Wesley K. Clark, who skipped the Iowa contest.

The day also delivered a huge and unexpected victory for Mr. Edwards, who seemed delighted if a bit surprised by the outcome tonight.

"My message is finally coming through," he said. "In the end, the caucusgoers heard it. That's the reason for this momentum and this surprise."

The result was a serious setback for Dr. Dean, who had campaigned intensely across this state for more than a year. It was a clear disappointment to a candidate who just a week ago was confident of victory here and in New Hampshire. Surveys of voters entering the caucus sites suggested that what was Dr. Dean's central appeal — his opposition to the war — had done him little good on Monday night. Instead, the issue that Democratic voters here and in New Hampshire repeatedly said was a top priority — finding a candidate who could beat President Bush — weighed heavily upon them, to Dr. Dean's disadvantage. Among the more than a quarter of voters who called electability their top priority, Mr. Kerry won by a ratio of almost two to one.

Dr. Dean was on a plane Monday for Manchester, leaving little doubt about where this battle is about to turn: to the state with the first direct voter primary.

"I'm looking forward to the primary," Dr. Dean said. "It's a new day, a new state."

Iowans who voted in the caucuses were far more likely to cite health care and the economy than the war in Iraq as their most pressing concerns in this election, even after a year in which the war in Iraq significantly shaped the Democratic presidential contest, according to a survey of voters entering caucus sites.

The survey found that the caucuses, the most competitive Democratic contest this state has had in at least 16 years, produced a spike of new interest, with about half of caucusgoers saying they were attending their first caucus. At the same time, the survey confirmed what voters here and in New Hampshire have repeatedly said from the start of the year: That defeating President Bush was a top priority for Democratic voters this year.

More than a quarter described it as the key consideration in casting their votes.

Three in 10 said the decisions were based on the candidates' taking strong stands on issues.

In a sign of how the climate here has changed over the last six months, barely 15 percent said the war in Iraq had shaped their final decision, even though 75 percent said they opposed the war. Dr. Dean, the former governor of Vermont, emerged as a major contender here in large part by opposing the war in Iraq, drawing a sharp contrast with three opponents who voted for the war while in Congress: Mr. Gephardt, Mr. Kerry Mr. Edwards.

Dr. Dean won barely half the support of voters who called the war in Iraq their top priority. And opponents of the war split almost evenly between Dr. Dean and Mr. Kerry, who voted for the Iraqi resolution in Congress, a position for which he was repeatedly lambasted here during this campaign.

The survey also suggested that the central theme of Mr. Gephardt's appeal -- pledging to fight against overly liberal trade agreements -- did not fare well. Barely five percent of voters named that as their top issue; and he won the support of just one-third of union households.

Among elderly voters, a key contingent in Iowa, and another target of Mr. Gephardt, Mr. Kerry won the support of about one-third, compared to about one-quarter for Mr. Gephardt. The elderly made up one-third of the electorate.

The poll also reflected the extent to which the election shifted in the final week: almost half of Mr. Kerry's supporters and half of Mr. Edwards' supporters said they decided to support them in the last week. By contrast, just a third of Dr. Dean's supporters made their decision in the final days of the campaign, suggesting the extent to which Mr. Edwards and Mr. Kerry won the undecided vote.

The poll was conducted by by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool of the networks and The Associated Press with 1,064 participants as they arrived Monday night for the caucuses in 50 precincts throughout the state. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

As the caucuses opened, some of the sites were packed, with some voters saying they had not quite made up their minds about what to do, reflecting what many Democrats have said was the extraordinary volatility of this contest.

In Waukee, a Des Moines suburb, Terry Meyer, a retired computer systems analyst, said as he walked into his caucus site that he was leaning toward Mr. Kerry, that he thought Mr. Kerry had the best chance of defeating President Bush.

"Really, the man whose ideas I really like and who I was torn between is Kucinich," he said. "But now that he's not really so much of a factor, I think I might go over to Kerry."

"I just think that Kerry has more experience and the better chance," he said.

In Indianola, Larry Buttrey, 62, a retired machinist, said he was leaning toward Mr. Edwards, citing the very thing that Mr. Edwards had emphasized to differentiate himself: that he was trying to avoid attacking his opponents.

"He's the only one I heard so far who hasn't blasted the other candidates," Mr. Buttrey said. "I don't want to hear what the other guy's doing. I want to hear what you're going to do."

With the Iowa voting completed, the candidates move into an exhausting sprint of primaries and caucuses that party officials say should determine a nominee by the beginning of March. It starts with the vote in New Hampshire next Tuesday and continues the following Tuesday, when there are contests in seven states.

And the nomination battle is about to effectively gain two more contestants; General Clark and Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut. Both men skipped the Iowa caucuses, instead spending time in New Hampshire.

With the caucuses starting at 6:30 p.m., the campaigning went on until the last minute. The candidates traveled across the state, restating the appeals that got them here, urging voters to turn out and stopping off to attend celebrations marking Martin Luther King's Birthday.

Campaign headquarters here were bustling with energy and tension, as the campaigns began executing the plans they had put into place long ago to turn out their voters.

"Go out and get more votes — we need to win this place," Joe Trippi, Dr. Dean's campaign manager, said to a volunteer as he bounded out the door of campaign headquarters. Dr. Dean's headquarters was elbow-room-only: a blur of orange, yellow and red caps. The color of the cap signified the rank of the worker.

As the 6:30 hour approached, volunteers at Dr. Dean's headquarters, many of whom had flown in from out of the state to help out, were assigned to work the telephones, knock once more on doors and drive voters to caucus sites.

Up Locust Street, at Mr. Kerry's campaign headquarters, staff members and workers toiled in the midst of pizza boxes and campaign signs, watched over by an inflatable George Bush doll adorned with a flight suit and a Pinocchio nose.

Mr. Gephardt said he was counting on support from union leaders to drive him to victory this time, as it did when he last ran for president, in 1988.