Who Gets The Gold Watch?

[jayC]

Who Gets The Gold Watch?
DB.com's Anecdote To Roster Bloating


By David Lord and Mike Fisher -- DallasBasketball.com
What to do about the glut of bodies at the tail end of the Mavs’ roster? In the case of one relative no-name, a prominent job is available. In the case of a handful of others, the best they’ll do is Mark Cuban’s version of a gold-watch goodbye.
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Sources tell DallasBasketball.com that while the organization is considering every option regarding the club’s only real hole, at backup power forward – Karl Malone? Keon Clark? Donnell Harvey? – newly acquired Alan Henderson might get first crack at earning the spot.
Meanwhile, with 17 on the roster (soon to be 18 with Avery Johnson), we make some educated guesses as to the fates of other assorted bodies:
Pavel Podkolzin, Jon Stefansson and Europe: Let’s clear this up: As part of the bloated-roster solution, can Dallas send Pavel Podkolzin and Jon Stefansson to Europe or to the NDBL for further seasoning, and then bring them back when they are ready?
No. Mavs officials inform us that the rules prevent such a thing.
Once a contract is signed, the player plays only for the Mavs. They are counted against the roster. Period.
The only way for them to play elsewhere, and not count against the roster, is for the Mavs to waive them. That allows any team in the league to claim their contract, if they have the cap room. If the player clears waivers, they become a total free agent, and can sign with any other team at any time. In either case, the Mavs would lose all rights to them.
In addition, if they cleared waivers, the Mavs would still be obligated to pay any such player in full who has a guaranteed contract, even if the player later signed with another team. (P-Pod's contract is fully guaranteed for three years; Stefansson's reportedly is not guaranteed.)
A European team (Dynamo St. Petersburg) has claimed on an internet site that Jon has signed a deal to play with them this year. We don't have any contacts in Russia to talk to, but Mavs officials have told us he has not been waived. Until and unless the Mavs waive him, he cannot play for another team. If the Mavs no longer wanted his services, in the waivers process, his contract could be claimed by any other NBA team.
At this point, the internet report is inaccurate. The Mavs, plus every other NBA team, have prior claims (ahead of a Russian team) on Stefansson's services as a basketball player.
Maybe there’s another guy named “Jon Stefansson’’ dribbling around out there?
Jon does not seem to have much of a future here. P-Pod might, but with five other centers presently at Dallas’ disposal, he’ll never see the light of day this year. That’s probably a good thing. Despite his massive size, he remains a project. P-Pod’s 7-4, 300-pound body is proportionate, and he’s not completely uncoordinated. Oh, and his jovial personality is a plus. But a year (or more) of working with Paul Mokeski on the most fundamental of basketball skills will do him a world of good.
“Buying out’’ Tariq Abdul-Wahad:
Can the Mavs opt to waive an "injured" player, such as Tariq Abdul-Wahad, and then collect the bulk of the contract from insurance?
No.
Typically insurance companies only pay to cover valid injuries, although in TAW's case there seems to be a clause in the insurance policy that he is considered to be "injured" if he is on the Injured List, regardless of physical condition. Obviously the Mavs would be required to keep him, and to then stash him on the injured list from here on out, if they wanted to receive compensation for his contract from the insurance company.
Thus, the Mavs cannot cut him, and then get automatically reimbursed for the bulk of his contract.
However, insurance policies are contracts, and payments pursuant to contracts can be negotiated. The potential always exists for the insurance company, the player, and the team to mutually buy out a contract, if an agreement can be reached. So, while the Mavs cannot merely decide to waive such a player and demand reimbursement from an insurance company, it certainly might be possible for them to work a buyout of some sort that includes the insurance carrier.
What a waste. When he first arrived in Dallas, Nellie actually made him a first-game starter. Sure, it was partly based on ceremony. But it was also a nod to the fact that when Tariq is right, he (or was) is a very capable slasher type, an NBA starter for sure. But now, it’s not his knee that’s the problem; it’s his head. He fell into Nellie’s doghouse like maybe no one before, so deep that no one will even discuss him except to say there is a long-standing conflict involving player, agent, coach and management. So Tariq shows up at practice when he wants to and doesn’t talk to anybody, or he heads home to France without telling anybody – and nobody within the Mavs organization cares.
This situation screams “buyout.’’
Best guess: the Mavs negotiate a deal, where TAW gets his freedom for a reduced amount, and the insurance company agrees to pay some compensation to TAW, but smaller than they will otherwise be forced to pay, in exchange for him leaving now. If the deal is negotiated small enough, I could see him being packaged with cash and a usable player to another team that is below the cap, so that the buyout and the cap ramifications don't doubly impact Dallas via luxury tax. Odds of being on the roster Nov. 1: 5%.
Good ‘ol Esch:
Evan Eschmeyer is a candidate for a buyout, and he appears to be a candidate for the "unable to play again" designation that removes his salary from the cap this year. Mavs officials are extremely close-mouthed about Eschmeyer's status at the moment, which makes the conspiracy theorist in us think that something is in the works here.
As a player, Esch will show up for work every day, and do it with a smile. He sets a mean pick. On the right team – that is, one without five other centers in the fold – he can be helpful. We love Esch as a guy, but that right team isn’t here.
Best guess: the Mavs work out a deal with the insurance company and Eschmeyer, and the contract is bought out, and he is removed from the roster and retires. The cap hit is erased before the season is over, under the 2-year rule, since Eschmeyer's injury occurred in the 2002-03 season. Odds of being on the roster Nov. 1: 1%.
Jon Stefansson and Dan Dickau in the same boat: These players fit in the same general category: they are both unproven, and they have contracts that are dirt cheap. If a 2-for-1 trade happens, plus both of the buyouts above occur, there could be room for both of these players on the roster. If there is no trade and the buyouts don't happen, they could both be cut. Or they could be the last two guys on the roster.
The reality is that because they will be the cheapest players to cut (Dickau, for instance, is at $893,000), they might be cut. At the same time, they would be the easiest player to get someone to take in a trade because they are cheap. And because they are so cheap, if they have any talent, they become very desirable to keep.
Internet reports have said that Stefansson will be definitely be playing elsewhere this year, but so far the Mavs claim that those reports are untrue. With his extremely team-friendly contract, it seems more likely that the Mavs would not make any such decision until training camp is done.
Best guess: the Mavs bring both players to training camp, and they compete for one roster spot. The loser gets traded or cut. Odds of being on the roster Nov. 1: 25% for each.
A 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade:
Will the Mavs make one or more of those 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trades that we talked about earlier this summer, as the means to get the roster down to the 15-man limit?
It still makes sense to us, mathematically, roster-size-wise, and in terms of filling a need. But it is hard to find a trade that makes more sense than just paring down the roster.
Some of the names we’ve danced with before:
Keith Van Horn? The Bucks appear to have a full roster, and they were a playoff team last year. They will expect talent to improve their roster.
Shawn Marion? He makes the most sense to me. The Suns reportedly have been shopping him all summer, and it would seem to me that a Stackhouse-Bradley package would give the Suns help at two of their bigger need positions. But the Suns might want even more than that, and I would be hesistant to offer more because his contract is a monster.
Tim Thomas? I can see the Knicks wanting to move him, but I don't see any random pieces that the Mavs could offer that the Knicks would want. Stackhouse plays the same position as both Houston and Crawford. And they just signed a big man.
Keeping Stackhouse as 6th man, and Bradley as center insurance, seems to offer more value to the Mavs than what they would yield in return in any other scenarios besides those above.
A backup small forward:
Nellie uses his SG's and PF's interchangeably as "swing men" and they have tons of talent here, with Daniels, Finley, Stackhouse, and Howard. With so many big men on the roster, Nellie might even be tempted to use Dirk at SF at times, in a BigBall lineup.
There really wouldn't seem to be minutes left over for anyone who isn’t pretty special.
That backup power forward spot:
It’s colleague Norm Hitzges who is talking up ex-Mav Donnell Harvey for this job. (No confirmation yet from the Mavs.) Donnell is a 6-8 jackrabbit, an energy guy, a good kid, who has never developed an offensive game. We heard much more positive things about Henderson, who, once upon a time, was a very valuable role player in this league.
We believe Mavs sources who suggest he’ll get a real shot at a minor role in the rotation, and the first shot.
We can do the above, or fantasy-league dream about guys like Malone. But with all the centers on the roster, a most logical guess: Nellie might opt to try Booth or Mbenga at PF at times.
We will say this: If your great concern is finding a body to bang at PF for the 8 minutes a game Dirk won’t be on the floor, you don’t have very many great concerns.
Getting down to 15:
What are the Mavs going to do to get down to 15?
The Mavs are currently at 17, and every indication says they have committed to adding Avery Johnson to bring the total to 18.
Based on information from the Mavs, plus some research on the rules, combined with a bit of logical analysis, here is what the roster moves might look like before the season starts:


Players who are virtual locks to be on the opening day roster - (11) Terry, Harris, Johnson, Daniels, Finley, Howard, Nowitzki, Booth, Dampier, Mbenga, Podkolzin

Players who are probables to be on the opening day roster - (3) Stackhouse, Bradley, Henderson. If a multi-player deal takes place, one or more of these players are likely to be included. We give each of these players at least a 50% shot of being here. They have value to the Mavs, but also have value to other teams. Note that the Mavs front office is mentioning Henderson as in the mix to be Dirk's backup, which means they don't plan to stash him on the Injured List this year.

Players on the bubble - (4) Eschmeyer, Abdul-Wahad, Stefansson, Dickau. In our analysis, at least 3 of these players will be gone by the time the season starts.
And the final 12/15 make up a pretty darn fine basketball team. --BACK--