Waiving Finley....addition by subtraction

[echo]

The draft came and went with no deals. The only real news is that Finley is almost certain to be waived. Why does this have to be viewed so negatively?

My logic. After the season Cuban met with AJ and AJ said he didn't want Finley to start. He obviously prefers Stackhouse or Daniels (or maybe both) over Finley. If he prefers Stackhouse (I think he does) then it comes down to Finley or Daniels as the backup. From what I've heard, Finley doesn't think he should be a backup here. The Mavs also have invested heavily in Daniels who is entering his third year. Like Finley, he was injured most of the year, but unlike Finley he never recieved many minutes. Obviously he has some talent as many teams in the NBA are interested in him (along with Howard & Harris) so burying him behind Stackhouse and Finley makes no sense. Basically the decision comes down to Stackhouse or Finley. Stackhouse is two years younger than Finley, is an aggressive slasher who gets to the free throw line and therefore puts more pressure on a defense which creates more opportunities offensively. Finley, even before his injury, was pretty much just a guy who hangs around and shoots outside jumpers. Yes he's a better 3P shooter than Stack or Daniels, but he's become a one-dimensional player. With his unwillingness to accept a greatly reduced role, and a massive salary (I think Cuban learned his lesson) that makes him untradeable, I think it's reasonable to let him go. I'm not saying he is done, but he's certainly a below average starting SG in this league today. If the Mavs don't think he's the player he once was and want to move on without him then why so much anger here? He's getting his money no matter what. Although the luxury tax is obviously the major reason for waiving Finley, I won't dismiss the idea that he doesn't prominently fit into AJ's plans. If so the Mavs probably don't want to risk potential problems that might arise if Finley is only getting 15-20 minutes a game.

I honestly don't think losing Finley will negatively impact this team even if we don't add another 2/3. I was all on board trading him two years ago when he still had value knowing his salary would become a hindrance by the time he reached 32 or 33. He was an excellent SG for many years, even making the All Star team twice, but never a major star type player. He was never as good as say Mitch Richmond who's skill level dropped signficantly around the same age. Most SG's/SF's lose a couple of steps and atheleticism around age 31/32 and very few are All Star caliber players after that. Guys like Richmond, Rice, Finley, Rolando Blackmon, A. Houston, etc decline. Guys like MJ are the exception because they did everything well. It's much more common for big guys (C/PF) to remain productive into their mid thirties because they are relying more on strength than quickness. Most 2/3's become specialists. That's what Finley is today. Can he help Phoenix, Miami or Detroit? Sure he can. If by chance he starts in Phoenix he's the 5th option. He's playing 25 minutes off the bench in Detroit. He may or may not start in Miami depending on what they do with Eddie Jones (who is a better player than Fin now because he's still a defensive force). The Spurs have no use for him (he plays 15 minutes a game at most there) nor does Indiana (Artest, S. Jacskon, Granger, F. Jones). I don't think anywhere else he goes to has a shot at a title next season. Don't think he puts Houston or Denver over the top.

Anyway I think those of you who are crying should just move on and look forward which I think is what the Mavs are doing. I mean a few of you are acting like babies! Someone said the Mavs will trade Dirk for an expiring contract for goodness sakes! I think they have a plan, it just doesn't include Finley. They still have assets. I think they will target a few marquee players in trades as well as looking for a key piece with their MLE. They may very well get a better "fit" than Finley that is released by another team. The more players released, the better the pool becomes. Since only a few teams are below the salary cap that means some good players may have to settle for the MLE.

What's out there?

First lets look at players that could be potentially waived under the new CBA. I think about half the teams will use this, even those under the luxury tax now. Why? Most will be looking to resign their own players or explore FA in the next year or two so what doesn't hurt them now may hurt them next season.

Atlanta. No one. Way under the salary cap with a very young roster.
Boston. Mark Blount (C) 5 yrs. Lafrentz (PF/C) 4 years. Both have bloated contracts, one will likely go. Lafrentz probably has better skills and his versatility makes him more likely to stay IMO. They have young guys waiting in the wings so I think Blount is a goner.
Charlotte. No one. Expansion team, no bad salaries.
Chicago. No one. A. Davis makes a bundle but is in his last year.
Cleveland. Eric Snow (PG) 4 yrs. Ira Newble (SG/SF) 3 years. Resigning Z or a big name FA so expect one of these guys to go. Snow is a good backup PG.
Dallas. Finley.
Denver. Najera (F) 3 yrs. Probably gone
Detroit. Carlos Arroyo (PG) 3 yrs. If they don't think they can trade him, he could be gone.
Golden State. Derek Fisher (PG/SG) 5 yrs. Adonal Foyle (C) 5 yrs. Both have bloated contracts and with B. Davis/J. Rich/Pietrus I don't see them keeping Fisher. He can hit the three.
Houston. Juwan Howard (PF) 4 yrs. Moochie Norris (PG) 2 yrs. Howard has the bigger and longer contract, but Norris is useless.
Indiana. Croshere (F) 2 yrs. Bender (F) 2 yrs. Croshere I would bet on.
LA Clippers. No one.
LA Lakers. B. Grant (PF) 2 yrs.
Memphis. J. Williams (PG) 3 yrs. B. Wells (SG) 1 yr. B. Cardinal (SF) 5 yrs. J. Posey (SG/SF) 2 yrs. J. Tsalakidis (C) 2 yrs. I don't think it will be Wells since he has the shortest contract. Nor Tsalakidis since his is the smallest. The other three guys would generate interest.
Miami. E. Jones (SG/SF) 2 yrs. Miami may do this if they think they can get an adequate replacement. 50/50?
Milwaukee. C. Booth (C/PF) 2 yrs.
Minnesota. W. Szczerbiak (SG/SF) 4 yrs. S. Cassell (PG) 1 yr. T. Hudson (PG) 5 yrs. Wally's salary is almost as bad as Finley's although he's younger. He can shoot, but not much else. Cassell's in his last year so I don't think they waive him. Hudson or Wally will probably get waived.
New Jersey. J. Collins (C/PF) 4 yrs.
New Orleans. Probably no one. PJ Brown has trade value.
NY Knicks. A. Houston (SG) 2 yrs.
Orlando. G. Hill (SF) 2 yrs. D. Christie (SG) 1 yr. I would be shocked if they cut Hill since he played so well last year. They have a lot of guys (Christie, Cato, Battie) in their last year so they can cut one and trade the others. I think Christie is a goner.
Philadpelphia. Webber (PF) 3 yrs. McKie (SG/SF) 3 yrs. Don't think they cut Webber and Mashburn is in his last year so I bet it's McKie.
Phoenix. No one.
Portland. Ratliff (C/PF) 3 yrs. D. Anderson (SG) 2 yrs. D. Miles (F) 5 yrs. R. Patterson (SF) 2 yrs. Ratliff makes the most money and isn't in their future. But they've wanted to get rid of Patterson for years. Their cut will be interesting.
Sacremento. C. Williamson (SF) 2 yrs.
San Antonio. Nestoveric (C) 4 yrs. He's been a huge disappointment and has a big contract. Would they cut him?
Seattle. D. Fortson (PF) 2 yrs.
Toronto. J. Rose (SG/SF) 2 yrs. A. Williams (PG) 3 yrs. J. Rose makes the max. I think the last year of Williams contract is a team option. Rose would offer them more savings and is hard to trade (like Fin) because of his contract.
Utah. No one.
Washington. E. Thomas (C/PF) 5 yrs. Only if they resign K. Brown and then probably unlikely.

Interesting Free Agents probably available around the MLE (* restricted)

* Gadzuric (C) With Bogut in town, how much will Milwaukee pay him? Will they match a MLE offer?
B. Simmons (SF) Probably gets a bit more than the MLE.
* E. Griffin (PF) Big guy that can shoot 3's and rebound. Shady history, but talented.
* K. Korver (SF) This guy can shoot. Philly has to pay Dalembert (who will get way more than the MLE). Can you get Korver for $4 mil?
D. Marshall (F) A power forward who shot over 40% from 3P range. He's an awesome rebounder. He's 32 but has a unique game so if you can sign him for 3 years at the MLE I would do it.
* K. Brown (PF) Lots of potential but I wouldn't give him more than the MLE nor more than 3 years. Like Marshall and Gadzuric better.
* M. Jaric (PG/SG) I like this guy a lot. A big PG that you could move around. Signing him means you could easily move Terry. Harris/Jaric sounds good to me.

S&T Free Agents. They will get more than the MLE. Possible trades?

R. Allen (SG). Don't think he wants to stay in Seattle. Pure shooter and still playing at an All Star level. At 30 he doesn't deserve the max though. A 4 year/40 million dollar deal & a S&T?
L. Hughes (SG). I know the Mavs would love to get him. An excellent defensive player/rebounder but not a great 3P shooter. I'm sure the Wizards will make every effort to resign him. If they can't we should get involved.
S. Swift (C/PF). He wants to start which is our biggest problem. He will also get way more than the MLE. I'm in no hurry to get rid of Damp, but would consider a S&T of Swift for Damp if Memphis was interested.

Trades.

If you can get Paul Pierce without giving up Howard or Harris you have to do it.
PJ Brown for KVH? We get tougher, and get a guy who can play center in a pinch.


Lesser Free Agents that might help.

Jason Kapono (SF) 3P specialist.
Kareem Rush (SG) Young SG with some potential.
Jeff McInnis (PG)
Raja Bell (SG) Defensive specialist.
Cliff Robinson (PF/C) If we fail to bring in another center. Would allow both DJ and PPOD to go to NBDL.
B. Scalabrine (PF) Servicable backup.
Dale Davis (C) Likely back in Indy.
Mutombo (C) Only at the minimum.
Bostjan Nachbar (SG) 3P specialist.
Casey Jacobsen (SF/SG) 3P specialist.
* Devin Brown (SG)
* Reggie Evans (PF)

Throw in potential CBA waivees that will sweeten the pot and I'm certain we get a guy with the MLE that helps this team more than Finley. Maybe we hit a home run and make a big trade. Even if we sign a big guy with the MLE there will be plenty of 3P specialists (Finley's role on this team if he stays) available for the league minimum.

I say we will be fine without Finley.

Edited to add: I don't hate Finley, I just think he's on the downside of his career. When Nash left, so did the "Big 3". It's Dirk's team now....and the young guys are his supporting cast not equals.