The Case for Marbury? DA' Statistics Don't Lie

[birdsanctuary]

Marbury is one hell of a risk. Now that was said about the role given to NVE, the same was said about Stack, and even KVH to a lesser degree, all pretty much came in and showed the critics wrong.

1st Do the Mavs have a problem at the PG spot? I would argue yes, here are the stats from 82games.com
Net Production by Position
Position.....FGA.....eFG%......FTA......iFG....Reb ......Ast......T/O......Blk......PF......Pts.....PER*
PG..............-4.2......+.037......-1.0.....-1%.....-1.8.....-1.2......0.8.....0.6......-2.8....-4.8.....-3.9
SG.............-2.6.......+.069......-3.0......0%.....-3.2.....-0.4......0.4.....-0.4.....1.2....-3.4.....-1.5
SF..............4.0........-.035......-0.4......10%....0.6.......1.6.....-0.8....-0.6....-0.8.....2.4.....+1.7
PF..............3.0........+.022.....2.6.......-13%...2.8.......-1.2....-0.8....-0.8....-0.4.....6.0.....+3.6
C...............0.8........+.036......-0.6......-1%....1.4.......-0.2......0.2......0.6.....-0.2.....0.8.....+2.3
*when comparing the team's production to the opponent production you can learn whether the team has been getting a net positive or negative overall contribution from that position.

Analysis: The statistics show that the Mavs are getting positive production from the front line, negative net production from the SG and PG position. With Stack's healthy return the SG negative PER should rise. However the -3.9 PER is alarming, given the fact that our Starting PG, JET and #2 Devin are seeing significant minutes.


How valuable is Marbury? Comprehensive descrepancy stats from 82games.com
Marbury 05-06
Is Marbury the answer, or is he a defensive liability? The stats below seem to suggest that on the court he impacts the team production negatively, but when he's off the court the negative effect jumps tremendously, leading to an overal positive effect on the team when he's on the court. This could mean that Marbury is a detriment to any team or it could mean that the NYN are just so horrible when's he's in they can't help but stink it up.


Player On Court Off Court Team Net
...............................+/-...............+/-..................+/-
Marbury.................-5.7..............-17.9.............+12.2

Marbury on Defense? Is he better than what the Mavs have now? How about in comparison to other top PG's in the league. Here are the stats on player defense per 100 possessions.

Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
.................................................. ........On Court.......Off Court........Team Net
S. Marbury........................................... 100.4...............99.5.............+0.9
Nash.............................................. ......116.8...............93.5.............+23.4
Wade.............................................. .....104.1..............103.7............+0.5
Kidd.............................................. .......106.3...............117.7............-11.4
Bibby............................................. .......112.6..............100.0............+12.6
MAVS
Terry............................................. ......104.3..............104.5.............-0.2
Harris............................................ ......102.2.............105.3.............-3.1
Armstrong......................................... ..110.5.............103.3.............+7.2

What the stats seem to show is that Marbury's not a defensive liability, but he's no defensive stalwart either. He has a barely positive effect on his team's defense. I was surprised to see Kidd and Nash's stats. [Correction/edit] The statistics show what we already know that Kidd is a solid defender while Nash's teams allow fewer points when he's off the court. The limited statistics seem to show that Harris is better defensively than Terry, that does seem to support what we are observing. [correction/edit]

Remember these stats are purely based on this year, and over time the numbers tend to balance out more. I'd guess Wade's +.9 team net effect will rise as will Kidd's drop. Still they are a good indicator as to what's going on right now.



What's the answer?

Below are the on/off court descrepancies for all of the PG options the Mavs have. I threw in Dirk so you could have a comparision. I dont' think anyone would argue about Dirk's value to the team on and off the court, so now you can see statistically, what we all see game to game. Harris' stats seem to indicate what we all see, an almost positive effect when on the court and when pulled a slight positve effect when the Terry returns. I don't think Marbury is the answer, I'd prefer to keep what we have.

Statistically the answer appears to be Armstrong. His net positive effect on the court is significantly higher than Terry's +4.0. New York wants Armstrong, or are rumored to want DA, why just look at the net positive effect when he's on the court. He also has a solid defensive positive effect per 100 possessions; he's not as good statistically on D compared to JET and Devin, but he's better defensively than Nash and Bibby, which isn't saying a whole lot, but DA is averaging 9.3 Assists per 48 minutes and an assist to turnover ratio of 7.0. JET is getting 6.3 Asst. per 48 minutes with 2.1 A/TO ratio. Devin has 3.6 Asst. per 48 with a .3 TO/A ratio. Shouldn't this alone dictate more minutes?

The stats also show that when DA's off the court there isn't a terribly negative effect, the stats seem to clearly show that when DA is on the court he has a significantly positive effect. We all know he receives meager minutes in Avery's rotation, so the statistics appear to show that virually every minute he's on the court he makes a positve effect. Heck the guy single handedly turned the PHX game around in the 3rd quarter, but can a 37 year old point guard play 20-30 minutes per game running this team? It'd certainly make an interesting year. [/b]


Player...............On Court.........Off Court..........Team Net
..............................+/-..................+/-....................+/-
Nowitzki...............+11.2.............-28.1...............+39.3
Armstrong.........+16.4.............-1.6.................+18.0
Terry....................+2.4...............-1.6...................+4.0
Harris...................-0.6...............+1.7...................-2.3