Ratings show room to improve

[kriD]

Ratings show room to improve

By ART GARCIA
Star-Telegram Staff Writer

If one of the hokiest, but touching, baseball movies of the last 20 years had been remade by Avery Johnson, the signature line of Court of Dreams would have been: "If you play defense, wins will come."

But Johnson wouldn't be whispering it.

The Mavericks have heard Johnson's message loud and clear all season. Even though the Mavs haven't hit their defensive targets in the playoffs so far, they're up 2-0 against Memphis going into today's Game 3 at FedEx Forum.

The Grizzlies have scored 93 and 79 points in the two games. That's proof the Mavs are playing great defense, right?

Well, not necessarily.

"We're not doing everything bad," Johnson said. "People obviously say, 'Man, you held them to 79 points.' We'll take holding them to 79 points any day of the week, but there are things we're trying to work on."

A defensive grading system the Mavs use after every game predicts, or better yet, validates success more acutely than conventional stats such as field-goal percentage, rebounding or even points allowed.

It's a system the team trusts.

"Our rating system has been something our players and our staff have been hanging our hats on," Johnson said.

Developmental assistant Paul Mokeski is the system guru, using game video to log defensive mistakes on every possession. Nothing gets past him.

The detailed breakdown takes about 90 minutes after the game and charts mistakes in several categories, including errors in transition, failing to contest shots, not blocking out, getting beat on the backdoor, losing vision with the ball, not double-teaming on time, not playing the pick-and-roll correctly or allowing penetration.

"Our system is accountability," Mokeski said. "If you're Josh Powell, you're accountable. If you're Dirk Nowitzki, you're accountable. The players respect that."

The relatively simple system divides mistakes by the number of opponent possessions. The corresponding percentage is subtracted from 100 to come up with a grade.

For example: 33 mistakes in 85 possessions would equal 61. Though 33 mistakes appears to be a lot, a rating of 61 pretty much guarantees a victory. It also underscores the defensive pressure and concentration needed on every play.

"It lets you know what you need to improve on and what the team is doing overall," forward Josh Howard said. "We have our lapses, but when you see that chart, you know what you have to improve on."

The Mavs were 50-0 during the regular season when grading out at least at 60. They actually hit the 70s in a few games and "beat some pretty good teams in the process," Mokeski said. Falling in the 50s is a crapshoot at 10-13, and below 50 equals no chance at 0-9.

"Some of the guys think I'm cooking the books to get it over 60," Mokeski said, "but I just go through it all and whatever I see, I see."

The formula was passed down to Mokeski from former developmental coach Hubert Davis, who learned it in Detroit. Mokeski's work is gospel within the locker room. If Mokeski says Jerry Stackhouse had five penetration mistakes, he had five penetration mistakes.

"It's the first thing you see sitting in your chair when you come in the locker room the next day," center DeSagana Diop said. "You can't play a perfect game, but it pushes you."

The Mavs have somewhat defied the odds in two games against Memphis. They hit 54 in Game 1 and 56 in the second game.

So when Johnson alludes to the potential to improve, even after allowing 79 points, there's a basis.

"There are times [Memphis] could have made us pay defensively, and they didn't for other reasons," Johnson said. "We break down the film and see the reasons. The public sees 78 or 80 or 90 points -- and we are doing some great things -- but we're just saying there are still some correctable errors."

mavs.com

Getting defensive

To find out their defensive rating for each game, the Mavericks divide mistakes by number of possessions. That percentage is subtracted from 100 to get the rating.

Example:

33 (defensive mistakes) / 85 (total possessions) = 39 percent

100-39 = 61 (rating)

Defensive breakdowns include nine categories of mistakes. For example: Transition errors, pick-and-roll, post, contesting shots, allowing penetration, blocking out, and defensive principles (catch-all).

Possessions factor in deflections and charges.

A breakdown of the Mavs' record, using their defensive rating system:

60-plus defensive rating: 50-0

50-59 defensive rating: 10-13

49 or less defensive rating: 0-9

The Mavs' defensive ratings so far in the series against the Grizzlies:

Game 1: 54

Game 2: 56