only 11 of 30 teams average more points than they give up...

[wmbwinn]

Team Scoring Differential
Team Pts/Game
1 DallasMavericks 8.7
2 SanAntonioSpurs 8.0
3 PhoenixSuns 7.5
4 HoustonRockets 4.9
5 ChicagoBulls 4.5
6 DetroitPistons 4.1
7 UtahJazz 3.2
8 ClevelandCavaliers 2.3
9 LALakers 1.6
10 DenverNuggets 1.0
11 TorontoRaptors 1.0

Of the above, the Suns, Nuggets, Lakers, Jazz, and the Mavs also are ranked in the top ten teams in the NBA for scoring (points per game).

Of the original list, only the Spurs, Rockets, Mavs, Pistons, Cavs, and the Bulls are ranked in the top ten in the NBA in defense (fewest allowed points per game).

How many teams made all 3 lists (points differential positive for the season, points scored on offense, and points allowed on defense)????

One, the Mavs. It is no coincidence that the Mavs are #1 in win/loss this year and are also #1 in the points differential per game. The Mavs are winning by an average of 8.7 points per game.

Earlier in the season, the Phoenix Suns were #1 in the points gained versus allowed (Margin of Victory to use Hollinger’s system). Now, both the Spurs and Mavs have passed them up.

The Mavs are the only team in the top ten list for both offense and defense. Phoenix scores 10.5 more points per game. The Spurs allow 1.1 points less per game than the Mavs. The Suns are ranked # 25 of 30 teams in the NBA for defense. The Spurs are ranked #15 for points scored (out of the same 30 teams).

Of the Mavs, Spurs, and Suns, the Mavs are the only team to take more shots on offense than they allow the opposing team to take. The Mavs are +198 for the season per Doug’s Tendex raw data (you have to do the calculation). The Spurs are -68 for the season. The Suns are -182 for the season. The Spurs have a slightly higher FG% for the season on offense and allow a slightly lower FG% to the opposing team on defense, BUT the Mavs assume a shots taken advantage per game that the Spurs don’t have (and the difference in offensive FG% between the Spurs and Mavs is only .007 and the defensive FG% is only .004). The Suns have the highest offensive FG% in the NBA but suck on the defensive FG%. The Suns have the best FG% differential because they shoot so well.

The only team in the NBA to allow fewer total season shots to its opponents than the Mavs this year to this point is the Detroit Pistons.

I looked at Dallas head to head with the Suns, Spurs, Rockets, and Pistons only. Dallas is 7 wins, 3 losses with that elite group.
Averaging those ten games, Dallas took 77.9 shots per game and hit them at a .454 rate.
In those same games, Dallas allowed 72.6 shots per game and allowed them to be successful at a .466 rate. If you do the math, you find that the Mavs made an average of 35.37 shots per game and allowed 33.83 shots per game to be made against them.

Dallas is 2-0 against the Suns.
Dallas is 2-1 against the Spurs.
Dallas is 3-1 against the Rockets.
Dallas is 0-1 against the Pistons and the Pistons are the only team in this list that took more shots themselves than they allowed the Mavs to take. And, the Pistons are the only team in the NBA to allow fewer shots against them than the Mavs allow on defense for the season.

The loss to the Spurs was determined by a 21 free throws taken advantage for the Spurs.
The loss to the Rockets was a whipping, 107-76. We allowed the Rockets to shoot .536. Compare that to our last two games, .333 and .388 (against the Rockets).
The loss to the Pistons was convincing- Detroit enjoyed a .056 shooting advantage and took 6 more shots than us…

For the season, the Mavs allow the opposition to shoot .446 but the above teams shot .466
For the season, the Mavs shoot .465 but shot .454 against those good teams. So, when Dallas plays one of these teams, we are winning mostly because of a shots taken advantage which we gain by rebounding, stealing, low turnovers, hustle, etc. It is about Avery’s discipline.

Phoenix made .531 of its shots versus Dallas and allowed Dallas to hit .480 of its shots and Dallas won both games…
The FG% Diff in favor of the Suns was .051
The FG% advantage for the year that the Suns enjoy is .031 and that is the best ranking in the NBA. So, the Suns nearly double their advantage against the Mavs and lose anyway because the Mavs had an eleven shots taken advantage and did well from the FT line.

The Spurs made .472 of its shots against us and allowed us to hit .462 of our shots and we have won 2 of 3 anyway and lost one game primarily because the Spurs had a 21 FT’s taken advantage in that one game. We take more shots than they do (31 shots taken advantage over 3 games, take into account the 21 FT’s advantage in one game which is the same as 10.5 shots which would correct the shots taken advantage down to 20.5 over 3 games). The Spurs enjoy a FG% diff advantage for the season of .030 which is high and is ranked #2 only below the Suns. The Spurs only enjoyed a .010 advantage against the Mavs and the Mavs won by taking about 7 shots per game more than the Spurs.

The Rockets made .428 of its shots against us and allowed us to shoot .443 against them and allowed the Mavs an advantage of 18 shots taken over the four games. And, that includes the blowout loss the Rockets handed us earlier in the season, 107-76.

Detroit only played us once but beat us as already explained above. They had a shots taken advantage and a FG% advantage but still only beat us by about 10 points, not a blow out.

The shots taken advantage is a huge stat as to predicting outcome IMO.