Would you trade Josh for Josh?????

[Dr.Zoidberg]

Rumors: Josh Smith and BYC

By: Eric Pincus Last Updated: 7/29/08 3:53 PM ET

RUMOR HAS IT…


Today's section is geared exclusively towards the latest rumors floating around the NBA …

Josh Smith: No resolution yet in Atlanta. Josh Smith remains a restricted free agent and to date it doesn't appear the Hawks are willing to pay him the going rate - at least based on the numbers received by players like Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Emeka Okafor ($10-12 million a season).

The question remains, does Smith accept the team's qualifying offer of $3.2 million and look to leave as an unrestricted free agent next year? Or can the Hawks find a satisfactory sign-and-trade for the talented forward?

One hitch in any Smith negotiation is the widely misunderstood Base Year Compensation (BYC) clause that limits Atlanta's ability to trade him.

Assuming a team is over the salary cap, a team can take in more salary than they send out only if it comes within 125% + $100k of the incoming figure. In other words if a team is sending out a player making $10 million, they can take in as much as $12.6 million but no more. (Note: This doesn't apply for trade exceptions.)

Any raise over 20% makes a player BYC, meaning the team sending out the player is only credited for half of the player's salary (or their prior year's compensation, whichever is greater). That means if Smith signed a contract starting at $10 million, the league would consider the Hawks' outgoing number as $5 million. Factoring in the 125% + $100k cushion, the most they would be able to take in for Smith would be $6.35 million.

How does BYC impact potential suitors?

Detroit Pistons:If the Pistons wanted to send forward Tayshaun Prince directly to Atlanta for Smith, the BYC factor would get in the way. Even if Smith signed for a salary equal to Prince's ($9.5 million), the Hawks would only be permitted to take in $6.0 million which is $3.5 million less than permitted.

There are ways around the limitation, specifically if Detroit were willing to take in the contract of Speedy Claxton ($11 million over two seasons but $5.8 million for the coming campaign). For Smith ($10 million) and Claxton, the Hawks would be permitted to take in $13.5 million in salary.

A package of Amir Johnson with Prince totals $13.2 million which fits within the necessary margin for Atlanta. The most the Pistons can take in the two they send out is $16.6 million - well within the range for Smith and Claxton.

Technically a sign-and-trade with Detroit is possible with Smith making a starting salary between $9,391,032 and $10,800,515. Obviously the numbers change if either team were willing to put additional players into this theoretical deal.

The advantage for the Hawks is they lock in a quality small forward for three years and get the promising, albeit raw Johnson to develop. There'd be the issue of starting between Prince and incumbent Marvin Williams but if the Hawks were to lose both Smith and Josh Childress, it becomes a position of need. Al Horford can play start at power forward but then who starts at center?

Los Angeles Lakers:The Lakers have insisted publicly that they want to see Lamar Odom on the floor alongside Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol before making and significant changes to the roster. Should they feel Smith is the defensive presence they need over Odom's playmaking (both play either forward position), an Odom package could also work for Smith and Claxton despite the BYC complication.

The viable range for Smith would be $10,962,118 - $12,027,927.

Assuming the lowest figure, the impact on the Lakers would be an additional $2.6 million in salary which would immediately double with luxury taxes.

The Hawks would be able to plug Odom in directly at power forward. In erasing Claxton's contract and acquiring Odom's expiring deal, Atlanta would be looking at the prospect of significant cap room for next summer in the range of $25-$30 million.

Once caveat: Childress' "cap hold" remains on their books until they renounce him - to the tune of $10.9 million.

Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets are a very interesting case. Armed with a $10.1 million trade exception after trading Marcus Camby to the Los Angeles Clippers - they can technically acquire Smith without sending anyone back to the Hawks. Of course Denver specifically made the move to get under a significant luxury tax bill, but it's still a move the team could consider if they valued Smith's talent highly enough. It may not be likely with so much invested in Nene, Kenyon Martin, Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony.

To date the team has been steadfast Anthony is not available in trade.

The Hawks could angle to get small forward Linas Kleiza in return along with a future Charlotte Bobcats pick (with protections) that the Nuggets possess.

Dallas Mavericks: A Josh Howard/Eddie Jones swap for Smith/Claxton is doable at well. The salary range for Smith would be $8,198,604 - $9,868,932. While the former is probably under Smith's asking price, the Mavericks would still be able to commit to a $74.8 million, six-year deal at the latter.

The advantage to a Howard deal is that his contract ends before the summer of 2010 (team option) when players like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Amare Stoudemire are expected to be unrestricted free agents.

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Hawks might have interest in big man Anderson Varejao who is paid very reasonably over the next two seasons at $5.8 mil and $6.2 million (player option). The Cavaliers also have the ending contracts of Wally Szczerbiak ($13.3 million), Damon Jones ($4.6 million) and Joe Smith ($4.8 million).

A deal could be worked for Szczerbiak but there doesn't appear to be any on the court incentive for the Hawks other than shedding Claxton's salary. A more complicated deal could include Jones, Smith and Varejao for Smith and Claxton. In such a combination, Smith could earn between $12,387,830 and $13,141,765 in starting salary.

That may be more talent than the Cavaliers are willing to give up but it's technically a doable trade.

Miami HEAT: The Hawks can't make a Shawn Marion trade for Josh Smith and Speedy Claxton without adding in the expiring contract of center Zaza Pachulia. As it is, Atlanta is extremely thin at the position. While Marion would be a suitable replacement for Smith short-term while providing cap flexibility next summer, the Hawks would certainly need a contingency plan at the five.

Smith would be able to earn a range of $8,820,380 - $12,604,694.

Orlando Magic: Sources say Orlando remains committed to their big three of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. It would be very tricky to come up with a combination of players to match salaries.

It could take a combination of JJ Redick, Brian Cook, Keith Bogans and Tony Battie to make a deal. Smith could earn between $10,621,516 and $11,761,832 to make a deal along with Claxton's contract.

Other suitors: Obviously this isn't a comprehensive list. The Portland Trail Blazers could try to build a package around Raef LaFrentz' expiring contract. Should the Utah Jazz fear losing Carlos Boozer to free agency next summer, perhaps they too could be a candidate.
Almost any of the teams in the league if truly motivated could put together a package to overcome the BYC factor and land Josh Smith.

To date it appears the Atlanta Hawks are undecided on whether to give him a deal at the established market value ($10-12 million a season), trade him or let him sign the qualifying offer.

Waiting for the team to decide may feel like water torture to the average Hawks fan, especially after the loss of Childress, but the prospect of cap room in the coming years may be too attractive to ownership - as opposed to committing major dollars to a team that won just 37 games last season.


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