DB.com: The Mavs’ Yen For ‘10 (aka, calling "the emperor has no clothes" on 2010 plan

[DLord]

http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=1361

The Mavs’ Yen For ‘10
Part 1: The Public Gameplan That Cannot Work
By David Lord -- DB.com

The Mavs have openly and publicly discussed bits and pieces of an apparent gameplan to benefit from The Summer of 2010. When we assemble those bits and pieces, the gameplan seems to come together thusly: Allow most of their contracts to expire to create cap room, sign a free agent superstar to play alongside Dirk-and-company, and then sail into the future buoyed by that added talent.

There are some problems with all this. Problems of rules, logic and finance. So instead, I assume the Mavs have a real gameplan, a non-public gameplan … a “secret’’ gameplan, if you will, that makes sense.

Read on for Part 1 of “The Mavs’ Yen For ’10: The Public Gameplan That Cannot Work.’’ (On Monday, Part 2: “The Mavs’ Yen For ’10: Building A Better Blueprint.’’)

THE PROBLEMS WITH THE PUBLIC 2010 GAMEPLAN

Without going into too much nitpicking detail, the fact is that the Mavs' 2010 on-the-record media statements have regularly been littered with airy pronouncements full of rosy misdirection and fanciful non-reality. I’ll work on the assumption, of course, that given their intellect, work ethic, commitment and creativity, the Triangle of Trust knows the rules -- and knows that some of the things its members have said to the media about the future are (to put it nicely) “generalizations’’ ... and not “misinformation.’’

Because here’s the thing: Some of the quotes that have come out regarding 2010 are nonsensical. The statements simply ignore existing commitments the team will have to honor, fail to provide a logical explanation of how they can keep a contending roster intact in the interim without impinging on 2010, and make the incorrect claim that in 2010 they can honor their existing contracts that extend beyond that point, go out and sign that superstar free agent, and then come back and freely add on their players whose contracts have run out.

That is not realistic. That does not comply with the rules.

There's an additional issue. Because of the economy, NBA revenues have been falling, and as a result the league is anticipating a salary cap that will stay the same or may even go down from now to 2010. That will make it even harder to fit all those pieces onto one roster. At this point, if the Mavs keep allowing us to believe they honestly think they have a 2010 plan to add a superstar to their talent core of Dirk, Kidd, Jet, and so on (like GM Donnie Nelson did this week after the trade deadline) … well, it just doesn't add up – not using real-world NBA math.

HOW THE CURRENT PUBLIC 2010 PLAN LOOKS

Let's break it down.

We'll assume a cap that stays level for the next two years (which might be optimistic) at $58M. We'll assume they don't add anyone in the interim with a contract past that point. And we'll have them waive Dampier's last season (not guaranteed) and decline their team options on J-Ho and Barea. Dirk opts out with an eager desire to stay in Dallas. The contracts of Wright and the other members of the roster all expire. We'll have them keep Kidd and Bass (and maybe others) on one-year deals this summer, which will also expire by then.

What they have left is Jason Terry, Matt Carroll, their No. 1 pick in 2009, lots of empty roster slots, and a cap total of about $16M.

Next, Cuban and Donnie and Rick go out and -- with an existing roster of Jet/Carroll/2009 draftee -- they attract and sign LeBron. Or Wade. Or Bosh. Come to Dallas, enjoy the weather and the no-state-tax and play for titles! (An easy sell, yes? No? Just play along, OK?) That major-coup signing puts the Mavs at about $34M, with $24M left to spend.

At this point, can they spend the $24M on more outside talent and then go back and freely resign their own players whose contracts ran out?

Nope.

If they are using cap room to sign other teams' free agents, they lose Bird Rights to go over the cap to sign their own. That means once they sign that superstar and have $24M left, they'd have to do ALL of the following within that remaining limit:

· Re-sign Dirk

· Re-sign Kidd

· Get a quality center or re-sign Dampier

· Re-sign or replace J-Ho and Bass and Wright

· Add enough role players to be competitive

Maybe they try to entice Dirk and Kidd to play for massively discounted one-year deals in a quest for a title (by hinting at but not promising a max deal to follow in 2011, in order to stay within the rules). Say for example Dirk takes only $12M and Kidd $8M, which are probably pie-in-the-sky assumptions. That leaves them with the following result:

· C - none (a key vacancy, given Dirk's style)

· PF - Dirk

· SF - Wade or LeBron or Bosh

· SG - Jet, Carroll

· PG - Kidd

· backup – No. 1 pick in 2009

· $4M in cap room to fill seven roster slots

How far will that remaining $4M go? Not far. With that little, they can't even afford to pay for seven veterans on minimum-salary deals! The best they could do would be to get two veterans at the minimum, and the rest would have to be rookie free agents.

No center, no J-Ho, no Bass, no Barea, no Wright, no bench. Is that thin-as-nail-soup roster -- made possible only by a plan that is fantasy-like in almost every point of its execution - a scenario that would entice a LeBron, Wade, or Bosh? Or even Dirk?

In addition, even if you love the above six-man roster list, if you need a few more million to sign Dirk/Kidd, or the cap is a few million smaller, assembling just that skeleton crew becomes impossible. Those last seven roster slots -- if all spent on minimum salary rookies -- will cost about $2.5M, and you have to set money aside for those slots before you sign the free agent, before you sign Dirk, and before you sign Kidd. Move the cap down to $55M from $58M, and now you can't fit Dirk at $12M and Kidd at $8M. Keep the cap at $58M but move the total needed for Dirk up to $15M or to $11M for Kidd, and again it can't be done. And as you are squeezing to make it all fit, you still are ending up with more than half your roster (7 of 13) manned by rookie scrubs or minimum salary fill-ins. Some of those have to be in your regular rotation. One injury here or there and you're relying on D-leaguers to do some heavy-lifting.

If the cap was rising significantly instead of falling, then the current 2010 blueprint looks way more possible. For example if the cap was $65M, then you'd have $11M to fill out that roster and could get another contributor or two (especially a center) and perhaps some usable role players. But no one expects a $65M cap for 2010 anymore.

Therefore. …

The announced bits and pieces of a Mavs’ 2010 gameplan do not come together in a logical manner. That “gameplan’’ cannot be the gameplan. Therefore, I assume the Mavs are like that swimming duck: above the water’s surface, calm and in control (and speaking confidently but vaguely in press conferences). But below the water’s surface? They are doing something completely different, paddling furiously, working to execute a gameplan that they haven’t allowed the public to see. (And that, by the way, they have no obligation to reveal, to us or to the rest of the league.)

And what could that “Yen For ‘10’’ gameplan be?

On Monday comes Part 2, “The Mavs’ Yen For ’10: Building A Better Blueprint.’’ http://www.dallasbasketball.com/home_display.php