03-20-2011, 06:59 PM
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#81
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 8,841
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Nevermind........
Last edited by Dtownsfinest; 03-20-2011 at 07:00 PM.
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03-20-2011, 08:06 PM
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#82
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 17,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grndmstr_c
I'm now confused about who 'he' is. My opinion is that Caron would have been a 26-30 mpg player at SF (he wouldn't be getting minutes at SG with any consistency), and Stevenson would have become a non-factor in the rotation, losing his minutes to Booby. The defense would have suffered on account of the latter part of that, just like it is suffering for it now.
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But again, the defense dropped off well before Stevenson lost his spot to Roddy. The major event that times best with the decline in team defense is Caron's injury. Maybe that's coincidence (I doubt it), but there's no arguing that's when the decline began. You can go back and look at some box scores and you'll see what I mean. You can even start once Dirk came back, if you like (Jan. 17 @Detroit and beyond), and you'll see the numbers aren't nearly as good as November and December.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grndmstr_c
I'm not saying it's coincidence. I'm saying Caron's absence is not uniquely deterministic of the defensive drop-off, and that your analysis is only taking half the game into account.
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Very few things we talk about are "uniquely deterministic" of anything. I'm sure there are several factors that contribute to this, but a lot of them end up tracing back to Caron going out and the domino effect that had on the rotation.
It's not just about losing Caron, who's a decent defender but nothing elite. It's about all the other adjustments that had to be made to fill his void.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grndmstr_c
You have to admit you've been on it for a while, though. Nonetheless, obsessed is a strong word, an I apologize if my comment seemed to put you in the same class as the Kidd's-minutes guy. You bring much more to the forum than that.
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I'm on it cause it doesn't get talked about enough and it's a serious problem. These guys rarely get stops anymore. They've fallen all the way to the middle of the league in defensive efficiency. As I understand it, the lowest-ranked defensive team in the past 15+ years to win a title was the '06 Heat, and they were still in the top 10.
And look, I think both sides of the ball are very important, but the thing about defense is it usually has less variance. Shooting percentages vary a lot, but your effort and execution on team defense can be relatively constant. For that reason, if you gave me a choice between an A+ defensive team with a B- offense, or vice versa, I'd always take the former.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grndmstr_c
I'm with you on not liking the defense on guards coming off screens. But that's another issue that seems to me to be for the most part unrelated to the debate over how Caron's absence has affected the team. Caron would be spending the majority of his time guarding SFs if he were playing, and they're not the ones doing all the damage.
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That's right, but again, it's the domino effect. I don't actually think Caron is some awesome defender, but it seems apparent to me that losing him has caused a ripple effect in the roster (and there are independent ripples as well, like Roddy's return) that have brought us here.
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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03-20-2011, 09:19 PM
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#83
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 7,938
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Scoreboard.
More seriously, this thing about the team struggling in January...they were decimated by injury, in the process of trying to find a way to survive they completely changed the way they played and lost their continuity, and when Dirk came back he was still playing on one leg for a week or two. They eventually got it together, though, and arguably had their best month of the season in February.
There have been hiccups lately, but the struggles have been defined for the most part by close losses to quality teams, a run of late-game bad luck, and a lack of lineup stability because of a string of injuries to rotation players. Deny it if you want, but there's ample evidence to suggest that Dallas can be as good without Butler (and with Booby, Peja, etc.) as they were with him (and without Booby, Peja, etc.). With regard to the argument taking place in this thread (at least as I understand it), that's the bottom line as I see it.
__________________
"He's coming off the bench aggressive right away, looking for his shot. If he has any daylight, we need him to shoot the ball. We know it's going in."
-Dirk Nowitzki on Jason Terry, after JET's 16 point 4th quarter against the Pacers.
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03-20-2011, 09:28 PM
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#84
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 8,195
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The defense was already faltering by the time Caron was injured.
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03-20-2011, 09:35 PM
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#85
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 7,002
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin
The defense was already faltering by the time Caron was injured.
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When butler went down the defense hadn't given up 100+ points in 8 straight games.
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03-20-2011, 09:38 PM
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#86
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 17,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grndmstr_c
Scoreboard.
More seriously, this thing about the team struggling in January...they were decimated by injury, in the process of trying to find a way to survive they completely changed the way they played and lost their continuity, and when Dirk came back he was still playing on one leg for a week or two. They eventually got it together, though, and arguably had their best month of the season in February.
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They did have a great February, but it was against mostly inferior competition, and with mostly underwhelming defense.
I'm usually a pretty big advocate of "a W's a W," but I have a real distaste for lack of real, lock-down defense. That's what the Mavs have shown me during this timeframe. That characterization is a subjective assessment of mine, but it definitely finds support in the numbers.
Now, they've nevertheless showed they can win a lot of the time anyway (again, against a soft schedule), but when I watch the games, what I see is a team that can't do anything to impose its will defensively.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grndmstr_c
Deny it if you want, but there's ample evidence to suggest that Dallas can be as good without Butler (and with Booby, Peja, etc.) as they were with him (and without Booby, Peja, etc.). With regard to the argument taking place in this thread (at least as I understand it), that's the bottom line as I see it.
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I guess I just don't see that evidence. Early season, we had a team feasting on the toughest schedule in the league. Post-January, we have a team feasting (if we exclude the recent "stretch of bad luck") on one of the weaker schedules in the league, and losing to the majority of the good teams they've played.
I have a ton of belief they can get it together in the playoffs, but that's really just me being a homer and speaking from the heart.
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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03-20-2011, 09:53 PM
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#87
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 8,195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mavs777
When butler went down the defense hadn't given up 100+ points in 8 straight games.
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They went 3 more after he went down. (Hey, wait a minute -You're counting the game he went down in - in the 1st quarter? That probably ought to be 7 before and 4 after.)
Anyway, opponent points started going up after they played Utah on December 3.
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03-21-2011, 01:32 PM
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#88
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 7,002
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin
They went 3 more after he went down. (Hey, wait a minute -You're counting the game he went down in - in the 1st quarter? That probably ought to be 7 before and 4 after.)
Anyway, opponent points started going up after they played Utah on December 3.
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From December 4rth till 30th (last Caron's full game before injury): 96 PPG defensivly
From January second (first game Caron didn't play in cause of injury) till March 20: 101.1 PPG
That is a big difference.
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03-21-2011, 02:09 PM
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#89
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 8,195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mavs777
From December 4rth till 30th (last Caron's full game before injury): 96 PPG defensivly
From January second (first game Caron didn't play in cause of injury) till March 20: 101.1 PPG
That is a big difference.
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Caron's injury took a month to impact the Mav's defense?
11/3 - 12/3 = 92.5
12/4 - 12/30 = 96
Caron's injury
1/2 - 2/2 = 96.625
2/4-3/1 = 100
3/4 - 3/20 = 99.5
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03-21-2011, 05:11 PM
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#90
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 4,511
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin
Caron's injury took a month to impact the Mav's defense?
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No, because PPG is kind of a useless stat. We had dropoff from 103 (Dec) to 110 (Jan) in defensive efficiency. Thats huge. And the team never recovered so far. In fact, March (112 DefEff) is the worst month in that area and Butler is long gone.
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03-21-2011, 05:24 PM
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#91
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 8,195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by j0Shi
No, because PPG is kind of a useless stat. We had dropoff from 103 (Dec) to 110 (Jan) in defensive efficiency. Thats huge. And the team never recovered so far. In fact, March (112 DefEff) is the worst month in that area and Butler is long gone.
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what was November? October?
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03-21-2011, 05:51 PM
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#92
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 4,511
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03-21-2011, 09:42 PM
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#93
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 8,195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by j0Shi
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thanks. Where do you get your efficiency stats? It's points per 100 possessions, right?
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03-21-2011, 09:52 PM
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#94
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 4,511
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Yes its points per 100 possessions. Check out basketball-reference.com for example. hoopdata.com also has it although they are using a slightly different (and in my eyes more inacurate) formula.
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03-21-2011, 10:18 PM
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#95
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: 41.21.1
Posts: 36,143
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Joshi, those graphs are excellent - keep up the good work!
(thought I'd mention your contributions outside the rep system for once...)
__________________
These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
Last edited by Underdog; 03-21-2011 at 10:19 PM.
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03-21-2011, 10:44 PM
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#96
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 8,195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by j0Shi
Yes its points per 100 possessions. Check out basketball-reference.com for example. hoopdata.com also has it although they are using a slightly different (and in my eyes more inacurate) formula.
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I found it at hoopdata, but couldn't find it on a convenient game log at basketball reference. What I see from the hoopdata defensive efficiency is that after the Dec. 3rd game, there was a fairly steady increase until a peak in mid-January, and we haven't come all the way back down since then.
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03-21-2011, 11:54 PM
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#97
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Minister of Soul
Join Date: May 2001
Location: on the Mothership
Posts: 4,893
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Here's a graph I've been building of Mavs Defensive points per possession over the season w/ a trendline - this is through the SA loss. Not pretty.. clear inflection point when Caron went out.
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03-21-2011, 11:56 PM
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#98
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: 41.21.1
Posts: 36,143
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Needs a timeline under the W/L.
Needs to be bigger(smaller?).
Needs more cowbell.
__________________
These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
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03-21-2011, 11:57 PM
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#99
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 7,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhylan
Here's a graph I've been building of Mavs Defensive points per possession over the season w/ a trendline - this is through the SA loss. Not pretty.. clear inflection point when Caron went out.
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It looks to me like the inflection point was before the injuries to Dirk and Caron.
__________________
"He's coming off the bench aggressive right away, looking for his shot. If he has any daylight, we need him to shoot the ball. We know it's going in."
-Dirk Nowitzki on Jason Terry, after JET's 16 point 4th quarter against the Pacers.
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03-22-2011, 12:06 AM
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#100
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 8,195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhylan
Here's a graph I've been building of Mavs Defensive points per possession over the season w/ a trendline -
this is through the SA loss. Not pretty.. clear inflection point when Caron went out.
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I don't think there is a clear inflection point at Caron's injury. I don't think anyone could look at the individual games (your dotted line)
and pick the game where Caron was injured. (It's the 3rd L in the midst of losing 9 of 11)
In the thick curve, it's where the curve goes from concave up to concave down.
The point at which that fat red line actually turns up is much earlier, in early december.
Last edited by Usually Lurkin; 03-22-2011 at 12:06 AM.
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03-22-2011, 02:09 AM
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#101
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 7,002
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nobody is saying the defense didn't start getting worse before Caron went down, but even during that stretch where it got worse it is considerably better than it is right now
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03-22-2011, 08:29 AM
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#102
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 8,195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mavs777
nobody is saying the defense didn't start getting worse before Caron went down, but even during that stretch where it got worse it is considerably better than it is right now
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ok. so the question is whether the defense that had already started to get worse while Caron was healthy would have continued to get worse if Caron was healthy.
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03-22-2011, 05:58 PM
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#103
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 4,511
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdog
Joshi, those graphs are excellent - keep up the good work!
(thought I'd mention your contributions outside the rep system for once...)
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thx. Appreciate it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhylan
Here's a graph I've been building of Mavs Defensive points per possession over the season w/ a trendline - this is through the SA loss. Not pretty.. clear inflection point when Caron went out.
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Very interesting. I think the trendline might be influenced too much by the two horrible games efficiency-wise we had against Orlando and Detroit (both >125). It is basically saying that we were trending towards 107 (?) the time Butler went out. But actually we had a very decent stretch over the last 4 at that point with 103.1. It is even more impressive because Dirk missed 3 (and a half) of those games.
Overall though I think there is a slight decline in efficiency in late December, but its acceptable. It is nothing compared to the dropoff we experienced since the calendar switched over to 2011.
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03-22-2011, 06:08 PM
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#104
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 17,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin
ok. so the question is whether the defense that had already started to get worse while Caron was healthy would have continued to get worse if Caron was healthy.
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It got worse more quickly once he went out. You can talk about when the "inflection" starts on the graph, but it's quite clear that the most rapid decline occurred in the early part of the new year, which is right after he went out.
Is your theory that it was already getting worse before he left, and thus it was not only destined to continue getting worse, but destined to get worse even more quickly? Regardless of whether he was healthy?
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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04-04-2011, 04:23 PM
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#105
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 17,873
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Come back, Caron. I miss you. I miss your scent. I miss your musk.
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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04-04-2011, 04:25 PM
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#106
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 7,002
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we need you.... in the first round
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04-04-2011, 04:28 PM
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#107
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Guru
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: uranus
Posts: 13,639
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yus
__________________
you just proofed how stupid you are - CRAZYBOY
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04-04-2011, 06:37 PM
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#108
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Golden Member
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin
The defense was already faltering by the time Caron was injured.
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Many people point to the Kings game in December where they had to come back to win as the decline of the defense.
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04-05-2011, 01:13 AM
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#109
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Diamond Member
Join Date: May 2006
Location: DC
Posts: 4,712
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[wrong thread]
__________________
Quote:
RT @TyLawson3 Good game between Dallas and Portland. Good thing we didn't end up getting Dallas. Coach Karl lost his mind.
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Last edited by nowhereman; 04-05-2011 at 01:36 AM.
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