Poll: DMN Debate - Can the Mavs win it all - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

OutletPass · 02-07-2003, 04:18 AM

Presented without comment :

The case for the Mavericks
02/06/2003

By EDDIE SEFKO / The Dallas Morning News

OPENING STATEMENT
Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls were bounced out of the playoffs six consecutive seasons before they got past the second round. Shaquille O'Neal was in Los Angeles for three seasons with the Lakers before he made it to the NBA Finals. The Sacramento Kings had three early flameouts in the playoffs before finally getting to the Western Conference Finals last season.

The point is that teams grow. Teams mature. They stumble, fall, get laughed at by the big kids, then pick themselves up and learn from their failure. This is where the Mavericks are. They have learned to lose in the playoffs. Now is the time when they will learn to win. Why? Because their style fits better in the playoffs now than it used to. For those who think the playoffs will be trench warfare again, Don Nelson has a caveat:

"I've heard that we're not" built for the playoffs, Nelson says. "But things, they are a-changing. Who are the four best teams in the NBA right now? They are teams that run, like we do." Indeed, even the power-built Lakers are at their best when they are up-tempo. New Jersey, Sacramento and even Indiana have the ability to push the ball up the court.

The Mavericks averaged 109 points in eight playoff games last season. Offense was not the problem. And now they have the improved defense to go with it. Whether it's a zone or a man-to-man, even subtle improvement is enough to get a strong offense to at least the Western Conference Finals. This is the year when it all comes together for the Mavericks.

THE EVIDENCE:

SOMEBODY HAS TO WIN IT ALL

This year is setting up for a team like the Mavericks to win big. The Lakers have lost their swagger. And deep down, Sacramento is just as soft as the Mavericks. The Kings just scowl a little bit better. The Mavericks are on pace to win more than 60 games. Teams that do that usually go deep into the playoffs.

HOME, SWEET HOME

The Mavericks have one of the best home-court crowds in the NBA. They feed off the noise, and it can be a difficult place to play for opponents. They need to secure home-court advantage throughout the playoffs for their best possible chance of making a serious run.

THEY HAVE MORE WEAPONS THAN THEY REALIZE

This is a team that is evolving into more than simply the Big Three. Nick Van Exel and Raef LaFrentz are their fourth- and fifth-best players, perhaps not in that order. Both are legitimate starters in this league but often come off the bench for the Mavericks. Eduardo Najera will be back within a month and should be able to provide a mean streak on the court, not to mention giving them hustle plays often missing now. Walt Williams, Shawn Bradley, Adrian Griffin, Raja Bell and Antoine Rigaudeau are quality players who can help you, albeit on a somewhat inconsistent basis. Rare is the time when all of them are off their game. "We haven't been perfect or good every night," says assistant coach Del Harris. "But somebody has stepped up on most nights to get us over the hump."

LIVE BY THE ZONE, DIE WITHOUT IT

Like it or not, the zone defense is going to be a big part of the Mavericks' success. As analyst Bill Walton says: "The zone unquestionably helps Dallas. It makes Shawn Bradley effective." And that's what it's all about. The Mavericks don't have to play man-to-man just to prove themselves. With the zone, their steals have increased from the lower third of the league to the top half this season. They are seventh in the league in field goal defense and 11th in points allowed, both respectable.

WITNESSES:

"They win every game by 30 points. What's not to like?"
Mike Fratello, former coach and current NBA TV analyst

"To me, they are the ideal team. They use layups to set up the perimeter and the perimeter to set up the layups. You have to give something up." Don Chaney, New York Knicks coach

"They don't have to be a low-post-oriented team because they have guys who can stay on the outside, penetrate and make so many things happen. They're very difficult to guard." Rudy Tomjanovich, Houston Rockets coach

THE CASE AGAINST THE MAVS

OPENING STATEMENT
If you want to run with the big dogs, you can't bark like a puppy.
And that's really what it boils down to with the Mavericks, isn't it? They play the shrinking-violet zone defense too much. They rely on hot shooting, which will desert you in a heartbeat when it gets to crunch time in the playoffs.

This is when the refs loosen up and the defenses lock down. When shooters see more rim than a hubcap thief. When the air gets thinner and so do the throat passageways. The fast breaks slow to a trickle, and the best teams rely on creating (and making) close-in shots.

These Mavericks haven't proven they can handle that scenario. All they have done in reaching the second round of the playoffs the past two seasons is show that they are one of the six or eight best teams in the league. And they aren't tough enough to be anything more than that. They don't have the mean streak that is required. Sometimes, that can come from one player - Dennis Rodman comes to mind during Michael Jordan's second three-championship run. And toughness can come mentally as well as physically. Magic Johnson simply refused to lose.

Look around at the other elite teams in the Western Conference. You can't go far without running into Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Rasheed Wallace or Phoenix's up-and-coming combo of Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion. Life is tough at this level. So this is no time for a little yip-yap dog among all these Dobermans.

THE EVIDENCE:

GOOD TEAMS DON'T FALL TO PIECES
At least, they don't become a 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzle over the span of 12 minutes. But that's what the Mavericks did when they gave up a 27-point cushion in the fourth quarter against the Lakers. Then, six weeks later in their first meeting with Sacramento, the Mavericks melted down for an entire game, getting whacked by 29 points. These two losses are enough to prove the Mavericks aren't ready for prime time.

DON'T HAVE A SIGNATURE PLAY

When scoring gets tough, the Lakers drop the ball to Shaq in the low post, and the worst thing that happens is he gets two free throws. When Sacramento desperately needs a bucket, it gets the ball to Vlade Divac or Chris Webber, who are adept at finding open teammates or exploiting a mismatch. What do the Mavericks have? They have the Big Three, but they don't have a Big One who can do one thing well all the time.

CAN'T STOP THE GOOD TEAMS

The Mavericks' overall field goal defense is solid. But after starting 19-2, they have been somewhat ordinary the past seven weeks. During that time, they have faced 16 teams with a record of .500 or better. They have allowed those opponents to shoot about 45 percent from the field. That would rank in the league's bottom third. The bottom line is the Mavericks' defense is vulnerable against efficient offenses.

RAW NUMBERS

The Mavericks went 5-7 against the Spurs, Lakers and Kings last season. They are 1-4 this year. Enough said.

SMOKING GUN

They haven't been there and haven't done that. Let's not forget that this franchise has reached the conference finals only once and has never made the NBA Finals. Getting to the second round of the playoffs is nice. But it's those final two rounds that give you a profound grit that only comes from being battle-toughened.

ALIBI

They still own a respectable 18-9 record against teams that are .500 or better.

WITNESSES:

"... The team with the best player usually wins the championship. Look at the list: Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, Abdul-Jabbar. And now you're asking me if Finley, Nowitzki and Nash are in that class? I'm all for it, but they're going to have to prove it."
Bill Walton, Hall of Famer and NBA TV analyst

"Dallas is a good team, but we've been through the most in the NBA the last four years. ... So we have a lot of experience, and we think we can draw on that experience. And we play real defense, tough defense."
Chris Webber, Sacramento Kings forward

THE VERDICT: THE MAVERICKS CAN'T WIN THE NBA FINALS

EDDIE SEFKO: Can't win. A key rebound. A huge defensive stop. A cold-blooded basket. These are things championship teams get. The Mavericks don't have that ability - yet.

MIKE McALLISTER: Can't win. The Kings are simply a better team. The Lakers are still the Lakers. The Mavs still haven't proven they can knock off either team in the playoffs.

TIM COWLISHAW: Can't win. Their best inside player is Dirk Nowitzki, and they don't even like to play him inside. Home court will help but probably won't get them past the second round.

KEVIN B. BLACKISTONE: Can't win. Not unless Sacramento loses its license as an NBA franchise.

KEVIN SHERRINGTON: Can't win. Until this team grows up a little more, or the Mavs annex a foreign country, they lack the muscle to push it any further than the second round.

I've created a poll for this, please vote. Can the Mavs win it all or can't they win it all.

Edit: Sorry, just realized that LRB has already created a poll with more options. My bad !

LRB · 02-07-2003, 05:26 AM

OP thanks for posting the article and the poll. It is an excellent contrast to the poll that I posted earlier. This article shows a prejudice that I feel that the media tries to force on us. If you listen to the media only one team has a chance to win the title this year and that is the kings. Really there is no reason to play if you listen to the media pundits. They may occasionally say some drivel like the Nets or Pacers or Spurs or sometimes even the Mavs have a chance. But they always come back to the statement that no one but their precious favorite has a chance to win. That's just BS. The favorite has the best chance to win, but it's far from a sure thing. Right now I would pick the Kings to be the favorite to win it all. One tweak of Webbers ankle in the playoffs and the all can change in a heartbeat though.

The truth is life rarely is black and white choices. There usually are many choices with varying shades of gray. One may be better than the other or there may be two or more viable options. The media likes to take a coplex question needing a complex answer and shoe horn it into a yes or no question. It just doesn't work effectively most times. So yeah I think the Mavs have a pretty good chance to win it all this year, not as good as the Kings, but better than most teams. I put the Mavs with the front runners in the pack chasing the Kings.

One thing to remember no matter how good or bad the Mavs play in the regular season, it will be how good or bad they play in the playoffs, assuming that they play good enough to make the playoffs, that will determine their title chances. Yes their play now might give us some insight into how they will play come playoff time, but nothing is written in stone. So contrary to what the media may want you to believe, the NBA title for 2002-2003 has not been awarded yet.

madape · 02-07-2003, 08:04 AM

It's crazy that not one DMN columnist or sportswriter thinks the Mavs can win it all. It just goes to show you how so many people can become used to losing. I really think that most of these guys don't even watch the fames. The fact that no one thinks the team with the best record by six whole games is good enough is ridiculous. I'm going to want to bump this thread up after the championship so everyone remembers the cowardice. I may just write an admonishing letter scolding each of them for their lack of conviction... especially that goof Cowlishaw. I hate that guy.

Hitman · 02-07-2003, 10:31 AM

The Mavericks Can't Win the NBA championship?

I disagree.

Those who say the Mavericks "can't win the NBA championship"...who exactly do they think "can win?"

The Kings - OK...they may be the favorites.

The Lakers - OK...they are the defending champs, but they are currently out of the playoff picture and could be facing the Kings in the first round. They will be facing an uphill battle throughout the playoffs.

The Nets - Come on. The Mavs are better.

The Pacers - See above.

The Spurs - See above.

Fellas, let me tell you this: The Mavericks CAN win the NBA title this year. If they do, they will need the big three at their absolute best, and they will need a few lucky bounces along the way.

But every single NBA champion needs their best players to play well, and every single NBA champion needs a few lucky bounces along the way. So to say that the Mavs CAN'T win an NBA championship is ludicrous. What, are the Kings and the Lakers the only teams capable of winning it? The Mavericks will go into the playoffs with HOME COURT THROUGHOUT. That, along with Nash, Fin, LaFrentz, the rest of the crew...and the FRANCISE, Dirk Nowitzki, who is improving and developing before our very eyes, is enough to give them a chance.

That is why they play the games...isn't it?

BTW - I live in New York and I am trying to secure two tickets to game one or two of the Mavericks first round playoffs series. Does anyone on this board have an idea how I could score these tickets? Thanks, your help is much appreciated.

Hitman

FlyinGK22 · 02-07-2003, 12:14 PM

the only reason i see us not winning the championship is sacramento. we will be #1 seed, sac will be #2. dallas and sac will continue the rivalry in the western conf. final and whoever wins that will win the championship. the only team i see that we are vulnerable in the east is the pacers.

LRB · 02-07-2003, 04:32 PM

BTW DMN Columnists are overrated.

jayC · 02-07-2003, 06:32 PM

They can they would just be doing it against conventional wisdom. I just think they are a player away and maybe a season away.

kg_veteran · 02-07-2003, 10:27 PM

Thanks for posting this article, OP. Very interesting analysis by Sefko, IMO, although I could have done without the stupid "voting by the columnist" thing. Who cares what they think? As madape said, I doubt they even watch most of the games.

This quote to me was particularly interesting:

<< The Mavericks' overall field goal defense is solid. But after starting 19-2, they have been somewhat ordinary the past seven weeks. During that time, they have faced 16 teams with a record of .500 or better. They have allowed those opponents to shoot about 45 percent from the field. That would rank in the league's bottom third. The bottom line is the Mavericks' defense is vulnerable against efficient offenses. >>

The Mavericks have improved against the league as a whole defensively, but when they face the better offensive teams, they struggle to contain them, much less stop them.

dude1394 · 02-07-2003, 10:39 PM

<< The Mavericks' overall field goal defense is solid. But after starting 19-2, they have been somewhat ordinary the past seven weeks. During that time, they have faced 16 teams with a record of .500 or better. They have allowed those opponents to shoot about 45 percent from the field. That would rank in the league's bottom third. The bottom line is the Mavericks' defense is vulnerable against efficient offenses.

The Mavericks have improved against the league as a whole defensively, but when they face the better offensive teams, they struggle to contain them, much less stop them. >>

You know this is an interesting comment by the writers, but as usual the journalists get lazy. How about showing the other highly ranked teams defense before/after playing a .500 team?? I would expect they also have issues there.

LRB · 02-08-2003, 03:35 AM

<< You know this is an interesting comment by the writers, but as usual the journalists get lazy. How about showing the other highly ranked teams defense before/after playing a .500 team?? I would expect they also have issues there.
>>

A very good point. I hardly ever see these types of comparisons. It would be interesting to see how affected other teams are as well.

TexRich23 · 02-08-2003, 04:03 AM

IMO,

The Mavericks still have a shot at winning the Western Conference, but a lot of things have to happen for them to win it. Unlike the Mavs, the Kings and Lakers just have to play their game and they will have a much better shot. The difference,IMO, is the inside presence that the Mavs lack. Because of that, even the TrailBlazers have a shot too.

jayC · 02-08-2003, 12:45 PM

Madape don't go ape on these guys they don't want to be wrong and go out on a limb. These guys flip on a switch. Most of these writers had the stars not winning the cup and all of them had the stars winning know. Shaq wasn't shaq the most dominant player in the game before he won a title. Neither was Thomas, MJ and so on.

The mavs need great starts against the kings by posting Dirk early, and then he can nail the three late. They need to stop relying so much on the three. They sometimes get lazy on offense against LA and the 30 pt blown win they stopped being aggressive and getting easy baskets.

If we go 6-6 against Kings, Lakers, and San Antonio that will be a good gage to where this team is heading into the playoffs. That's really all that matters. People say you can't win with Zone but it has only been around for what two years. Way too early to think it can't work.

Of course they can win the title. But do they have the right pieces do they have a strong man on defender. A guy like Eddie Jones could really help us. A strong defender can still nail the three averages 18pts 3.8 assists per game.

MFFL · 02-09-2003, 01:09 AM

I am filled with confidence that the Mavs will win it all. I rarely go wrong by taking the opposite side of any view posted by Kevin Blackistone.