CBA predictions?

[dude1394]

It's been a few years but cubes has been operating on a set of predictions as to how the cba would effect teams. I thought it would be interesting to try and recap what did/did not occur. Also the experts here know much more than I and I would be interested in their thoughts.

How has he done?

1. There will be lots of talent being dumped to get under the cap. I haven't seen that.
2. I have seen teams trying pretty hard to get under the cap.
3. Salary for free agents will decrease as they are being dumped and there is no money for them. Haven't seen that.
4. It will be difficult to improve your team of over the cap. I haven't really seen that either, teams just seem to move on via trades.

A few that I do t think was predicted. Not cba related really.
1. Superteams did not proliferated
2. Elevated value of the draft. Especially the longer term low salaries.

Others?

[jthig32]

The prediction was that it would be hard to improve your team when over the tax, not the cap. And I do think we have seen that the more punitive taxes and restrictions on roster improvement have kept more teams under the tax.

I think Cuban and the Mavs grossly underestimated how quickly the cap would rise and how few teams would be in cap hell with the shorter contracts. They thought they would be able to leverage their space to get their hands on overpaid stars as a backup plan to the big fish signing, and it just hasn't happened.

However, one thing I think they nailed, at least initially, was that the market for the mid-tier player was going to be depressed as teams stressed stars and minimums. The OJ signing ( even though it didn't work out) and the Monta signing were examples of this.The market appears to be correcting itself as teams that have cleared space are now blowing it out on the mid-tier, bit their initial bet won in this instance.

[hayth.james.g]

This might not directly address your points, but to me the new CBA represented the unknown. Whether it would push mid level players towards minimums or push stars to take less to accommodate mid level players, it basically was impossible to predict. The one certainty was that there would be radical change across the board. This coupled with the fact that the holdout could of lasted MUCH longer has always led me to side with Cuban as to dismantling our championship team. It wasn't as easy as saying we are bringing all our players back from a championship team to win another championship. Our backs were against the wall where we had to give max contracts to players with long term question marks in an uncertain market.

Without Dirks injuries 2 seasons ago we would of made the playoffs every year while maintaining complete flexibility in the marketplace. Contrary to what most people think, us missing the playoffs was more on Dirk than Cuban. He simply didn't make smart decisions to get himself in shape ahead of time in the off season and his body paid the price for it. Short term we would of had a stronger chance at a repeat or championship in year 2 post new CBA if we had overpaid for Chandler and Terry, but ultimately we went a different route. I strongly believe we would of had a much stronger chance at landing Dwight if Dirk had a season like last years before Dwight hit Free Agency. Things happen.

On your points:
1. Mike Miller is a pretty significant player who was dropped from a championship team due to salary cap implications. Also you must consider the affect the ability for teams to amnesty over paid and under producing players has had these past 3 years. Let's see long term how team do without the ability to amnesty.

2. I disagree. Way too short of a sample size to look at this objectively. Personally, I look at the effect it has on teams who are over the cap consecutive years not necessarily in a single year. This is where I think the CBA really punishes teams.

3. Its interesting. Up until this year I would agree with this. Now with the projected increase in salary cap space (7.5% each year?) I can see this point changing somewhat. This is probably the hardest point to predict because of the pending tv deal in 2016 and exactly how much its going to influence.

4. Yes it has been more difficult to improve your team. Teams have to search alternative options and usually give up picks and/or young talent to pull off these trades when before they might of been in a position to just sign them outright. Just because they can pull it off doesn't mean it hasn't become more difficult.

5. You didn't outline this point, but one fundamental goal of the new CBA was to give small market teams a stronger option for retaining their talent and remaining competitive. I think this is still in question. It appears the idea of the 5th year max contract offer is a strong lure. I look at NY possibly keeping Carmelo as perhaps a strong indicator of this. Bosh staying in Miami. Aldridge talking about testing free agency with the primary goal of staying in Portland but capitalizing on a 5 year deal.

[Kidd Karma]

The shorter max contracts are helping teams turn a new leaf quicker, but those tax levels, especially the repeater tax is scaring lots of teams from doing business......Pierce and the Nets is one example. From the Nets perspective they're in a precarious spot....do they go all in again, or pull back middle of the row, get some decent value for the 2015 first rounder. Seeing the Pierce move and a lack of rumors, seems they'll hold tight and go in with Deron, JJ, Lopez and their 2nd rounders.

[Kidd Karma]

Actually the draft picks especially the first rounders are still being moved to teams with cap space to alleviate tax woes. I don't see the 1st rounders having any more value than 5 years ago. Contracts are still scaled with a 2 year guarantee rather than 3. 1 and done rule having an effect in lowering the value?