2018 NBA Draft

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I dunno, Doncic is kinda souring on me the more I actually watch him -- I've seen a couple full games now and not just highlights... The Euro competition just looks vastly inferior to what I'm seeing at the college level, and I fear that a lot of this kid's weaknesses are going to be exposed in the NBA. Like, he gets a lot of assists, but his passing lanes are largely unhindered. He's a good ball handler and crafty at getting to the hoop, which mitigates his lack of athleticism, but I'm not seeing a ton of athleticism in his competition either, which makes me wonder if he can still pull it off against NBA players. He's able to use his size to make up for his poor lateral movement on defense, but he isn't really strong enough to get away with that in the NBA... And I do wonder how effective he'll be on offense without having the ball in his hands all the time, especially since he isn't exactly the most efficient shooter -- his game seems to be fairly reliant on volume at the moment.

Not that I think he'll be an outright bust or anything, but I do worry more and more about how his abilities are going to translate to the NBA level, especially if he's next to a ball-dominant guard like DSJ. Sure he's young and has plenty of room for growth, but I'm just not seeing a raw skillset that's going to dominate against superior competition the way I do with Ayton, Bamba, or even Mikal Bridges... Basically, you need to be either extremely athletic or extremely efficient to be a star in the NBA, and Doncic is neither.

Solid point about passing lanes being largely unhindered. I didn't see Doncic as an elite passer in most of the highlights I watched. I did watch one highlight reel of his, from when he was younger actually where he made some very elite-level passes. But, again I think he's more of a SG than a sees the court PG.

I have to disagree about the level of his competition. Here's who he faced in just the Eurobasket tournament this fall: Lauri Markkanen, Nick Calathes, Omri Casspi, Gal Mekel, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier, Joffrey Lauvergne, Kevin Seraphin, Nando De Colo, Kristaps Porzingis, Davis Bertans, Sergio Rodriguez, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Ricky Rubio, Willy Hernangomez, Juancho Hernangomez, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. 18 current or former NBA players. He scored on Porzingis 3 times, including a very nice move in the lane to create space. I mean, Trae Young isn't having to try & score over 7-3 oppponents. I see Doncic's competition as a major plus for scouting him. I'm not worried about him being able to get by NBA defenders. His handle is just that good, imo, and he really displays excellent 1 on 1 skills. Plus, he has that pull up, quick release, if he does have a bit of trouble getting by defenders. I think as his jump shot becomes more consistent, it'll only further to aide him getting by NBA defenders, in a similar fashion to how it helps Steph.

I do share your concern on how effective he's going to be without having the ball in his hands all the time. To me that's a big concern. It's almost like no coach has ever had him share the ball before. I really wonder how that would work. I wouldn't want DSJ to play 2nd fiddle to Doncic in terms of handling the ball, and the way Doncic needs the ball in his hands so much & really isn't an elite passer, from what I can tell, I think that would definitely impact Harrison Barnes' production. Will Barnes be okay with that? I don't know. Not even sure I have that diagnosed properly, but it's definitely a situation that would have to be worked out & I don't know, nor would the Mavs or any other NBA team, how Doncic would respond to making that adjustment in his game.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I have to disagree about the level of his competition.

I dunno, I see Doncic playing against some pretty lousy competition once you get past the top-tier players, especially the guys actually trying to defend him... It seems like there are more specialists in the NCAA, players who are great at one thing and lousy at others, whereas Euroleague has a lot more guys who are decent at everything, but great at nothing (which is probably why they're not in the NBA). I see more zone defense being implemented in Euroleague, largely because there doesn't seem to be an abundance of excellent man defenders -- whereas there are several guys in college who do nothing but specialize in defense (and most teams have a couple).

Maybe I just caught bad games against weaker competition, but it looks like Doncic is somewhat benefiting offensively from a lack of strong defenders. I don't see too many guys chasing him around on the perimeter, nor do I see any superior rim protectors. I just don't think he's going to be able to carve up an NBA defense the same way he has with Euroleague, not without superior athleticism... So he's really going to have to get more efficient with that shot if he wants to be find the same level of success in this league.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I dunno, I see Doncic playing against some pretty lousy competition once you get past the top-tier players, especially the guys actually trying to defend him... It seems like there are more specialists in the NCAA, players who are great at one thing and lousy at others, whereas Euroleague has a lot more guys who are decent at everything, but great at nothing (which is probably why they're not in the NBA). I see more zone defense being implemented in Euroleague, largely because there doesn't seem to be an abundance of excellent man defenders -- whereas there are several guys in college who do nothing but specialize in defense (and most teams have a couple).

Maybe I just caught bad games against weaker competition, but it looks like Doncic is somewhat benefiting offensively from a lack of strong defenders. I don't see too many guys chasing him around on the perimeter, nor do I see any superior rim protectors. I just don't think he's going to be able to carve up an NBA defense the same way he has with Euroleague, not without superior athleticism... So he's really going to have to get more efficient with that shot if he wants to be find the same level of success in this league.

Those are legitimate concerns for Doncic's competition. I think it's more fair to question his style of competition than the level of competition. As you say the Euroleague seems to deploy more zone defense than NBA or NCAA basketball does. I do agree you don't see very many highlights of Doncic where he's going against an agile, lanky defender who's shadowing him on man coverage i.e. a Tayshaun Prince type. He's usually going against a defender who's a bit shorter than he is and not much more athletic, if any, than Doncic. He does face his fair share of double teams tho.

The reverse side to this argument is college players get to pad their stats against guys who 5 years from now will be working at home depot & not even talented enough to get a tryout with a Mexican C league team post college. Doncic doesn't pad his stats vs any creampuffs like that. Although, his stats aren't that impressive, just yet. One thing that is impressive is the moves he put on Porzingis. 27 pts vs Lativa in the Eurobasket tournament. 12 pts in the 4th qtr of a close game where Lativa put Porzingis on him several times on switches on the pick n roll. Doncic scored on Porzingis 3 times including a nifty post move and a tough step back 3. I don't think those skills disappear in the NBA. Plus, this guy has legit one of the best handles of any 6-7/6-8 18 year old in history. His dribbling will be his saving grace imo.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Those are legitimate concerns for Doncic's competition. I think it's more fair to question his style of competition than the level of competition. As you say the Euroleague seems to deploy more zone defense than NBA or NCAA basketball does. I do agree you don't see very many highlights of Doncic where he's going against an agile, lanky defender who's shadowing him on man coverage i.e. a Tayshaun Prince type. He's usually going against a defender who's a bit shorter than he is and not much more athletic, if any, than Doncic. He does face his fair share of double teams tho.

The reverse side to this argument is college players get to pad their stats against guys who 5 years from now will be working at home depot & not even talented enough to get a tryout with a Mexican C league team post college. Doncic doesn't pad his stats vs any creampuffs like that. Although, his stats aren't that impressive, just yet. One thing that is impressive is the moves he put on Porzingis. 27 pts vs Lativa in the Eurobasket tournament. 12 pts in the 4th qtr of a close game where Lativa put Porzingis on him several times on switches on the pick n roll. Doncic scored on Porzingis 3 times including a nifty post move and a tough step back 3. I don't think those skills disappear in the NBA. Plus, this guy has legit one of the best handles of any 6-7/6-8 18 year old in history. His dribbling will be his saving grace imo.

You bring up some fair points (especially style of competition vs. level of competition), but I'm going more with the eye test than with stats. Sure, he's dominating Euroleague, but he isn't doing it with the same physicality as Sexton or the same efficiency as Young.

Or to put it another way, I think his limited athleticism coupled with his inefficiency could hurt him more than, say, Bamba's limited offense... Even if he never develops a full array of offensive moves, Bamba can fall back on his freakish wingspan to pull down boards and swat shots. I'm not sure that Doncic has much to fall back on if he doesn't get his efficiency worked out. Sure, he's smart and has plenty of time to figure it out at his age, but what if he doesn't? I don't think he's going to be another Ricky Rubio, but with his lack of athleticism it may keep him from ever becoming something special in this league.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

You bring up some fair points (especially style of competition vs. level of competition), but I'm going more with the eye test than with stats. Sure, he's dominating Euroleague, but he isn't doing it with the same physicality as Sexton or the same efficiency as Young.

Or to put it another way, I think his limited athleticism coupled with his inefficiency could hurt him more than, say, Bamba's limited offense... Even if he never develops a full array of offensive moves, Bamba can fall back on his freakish wingspan to pull down boards and swat shots. I'm not sure that Doncic has much to fall back on if he doesn't get his efficiency worked out. Sure, he's smart and has plenty of time to figure it out at his age, but what if he doesn't? I don't think he's going to be another Ricky Rubio, but it may keep him from ever becoming something special in this league.

Here's a video I saw breaking down Doncic's strengths & weaknesses that I really liked. It was posted back in July, so not the most up-to-date, but it features an interview with a guy who was formerly the Pacers international chief of scouting. The player comps are pretty bad, imo. Although, the Chandler Parsons comp has some truth to it. I still like a Brandon Roy comp the most. This guy in the video says he's a legit PG, and this is the second video highlight I've seen where Doncic displays some elite level passing. Again this was back in July, I wonder if he's changed his mindset this season for some reason? I still see Doncic as more of a SG based on the more current videos I've seen of him.

Anyways, some strong analysis in this video. Give it a look & tell me what you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu_Ejkd8N8E

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Here's a video I saw breaking down Doncic's strengths & weaknesses that I really liked. It was posted back in July, so not the most up-to-date, but it features an interview with a guy who was formerly the Pacers international chief of scouting. The player comps are pretty bad, imo. Although, the Chandler Parsons comp has some truth to it. I still like a Brandon Roy comp the most. This guy in the video says he's a legit PG, and this is the second video highlight I've seen where Doncic displays some elite level passing. Again this was back in July, I wonder if he's changed his mindset this season for some reason? I still see Doncic as more of a SG based on the more current videos I've seen of him.

Anyways, some strong analysis in this video. Give it a look & tell me what you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu_Ejkd8N8E

I remember seeing that. The first article I read that had me changing my mind on Doncic was- https://www.theringer.com/2017/7/20/...d-f534e7428bf6
I also rly like most everything by theringer.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Here's a video I saw breaking down Doncic's strengths & weaknesses that I really liked. It was posted back in July, so not the most up-to-date, but it features an interview with a guy who was formerly the Pacers international chief of scouting. The player comps are pretty bad, imo. Although, the Chandler Parsons comp has some truth to it. I still like a Brandon Roy comp the most. This guy in the video says he's a legit PG, and this is the second video highlight I've seen where Doncic displays some elite level passing. Again this was back in July, I wonder if he's changed his mindset this season for some reason? I still see Doncic as more of a SG based on the more current videos I've seen of him.

Anyways, some strong analysis in this video. Give it a look & tell me what you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu_Ejkd8N8E

He's soooo slooooow... Can he even be effective on the break with DSJ? It's almost like having another Dirk out there, lumbering his way to the arc for a catch & shoot. I want my wings to be quick, give Dennis a 2-on-1 option streaking to the hoop on fast breaks... He's not quick enough to defend guards either -- almost need him to be a ball-handling SF like Chandler Parsons (who is actually not a horrible comparison).

I dunno, I think he'll be a good player, I just like other guys more... Like, I'm getting to a point where I'd actually prefer Mikal Bridges out there with Dennis Smith Jr, but that's more on Bridges than on Doncic.

[Bryan_Wilson]

He doesn't seem any less athletic than Hayward looked at Butler when I looked his highlights up tbh.



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