Official: 2008 NCAA Football Thread

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I don't think you really addressed my point. You made a comment that "every team in the big 12 would need to lose 2 games, or possibly three" for USC to make it into the title game. That's not true at all. If Texas goes undefeated, OU loses one more, and Tech/OSU both lose 1, USC will very likely end up ahead of all of them, and could very well end up as the BCS #2, depending on how things shake out with PSU/Bama.

I'm not talking about 2 more games...I'm talking about 2 total games. I think that's where the confusion lies.


I'm not talking about multiple teams getting into the championship game from the big12. I'm talking about 1 team. So yeah, I think a 1 loss Oklahoma, OSU, Tech, or Texas gets into the championship game before USC.

For what I'm saying to work, you'd have to have Tech, OSU, Tech or Texas winning the Big12 unless Tech, Texas or OSU makes it to the Big12 Championship game undefeated and then loses to a representative from the north. Or, you'd have to have Tech, Oklahoma, OSU, or Texas make it to the Big 12 championship and win it.

So, if Tech wins out until the Big12 Championship game, they'll likely be ranked at least #2 in the BCS. If they're not #2, they'd be behind Alabama. But, they'd still be WELL ahead of USC because they would have had wins against Kansas, Texas, OSU, and Oklahoma just to make it to the big12 championship game. If they were to lose at that point, a 1 loss Tech would still have a huge advantage at least in the computers over USC because of the number of wins versus highly ranked opponents. If they were to make it to the Big12 championship with one loss and win the title, I think they'd easily be ahead of USC.

Using the same logic, go to OSU. OSU already has a win over Missouri. Plus, they have 3 games left against top 10 teams. One loss, and they're still ahead of USC.

Go to OU. They're already ahead of USC, so if they win out,..they'll be way ahead of USC.

Go to UT. They have games left against Kansas, Tech, and OSU... They already have big wins versus Missouri and OU.. If they lose one, they're still ahead of OU because of the head to head thing. USC's already behind OU... no way USC leaps over UT.

Just think... Tech and OSU's behind USC for now..but they're schedule is absolutely crazy the rest of the way. USC has already played their one team, so they're going to take a bit of a hit every week regardless of whether or not they win simply because they're beating up teams that would struggle with Baylor. If OSU wins this week, they are way ahead of USC... OSU would leap up to at least the #3 spot. Tech will move up this week with Kansas. And remember, if Penn State beats OSU, that'll also hurt USC.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

So yeah, I think a 1 loss Oklahoma, OSU, Tech, or Texas gets into the championship game before USC.

Oklahoma, yes obviously. OSU/Tech, no way. There is not a chance in hell that a 1 loss Tech or OSU team finishes ahead of a 1 loss USC. First of all, USC's loss would be earlier in the year, which always hurts you much, much less than a later loss. Second, again, USC gets favorable poll treatment compared to a Tech/OSU because of the residual perception of the quality of their program. Did you notice that when #1 USC lost to an UNRAKED Oregon State team, they only dropped to #8 in the human polls? Hypothetically, if Tech or Okla State were #1 in the poll and lost to an unranked team 5 games into the year, how far do you imagine they'd drop? A bit farther than #8, yeah?

Say Texas beats Tech & OSU (and eventually wins out, going to the Big 12 CG), then one of those two beat OU a second time. That puts Tech at 1 loss, OSU at 1 loss, and OU at 2 losses. You honestly believe any of those 3 teams will end up ranked ahead of USC, were that to happen?

USC is higher in the BCS right now than Tech and OSU, despite both of them being undefeated and USC having a loss to an unranked team! How do you figure that either of them actually end up ahead of USC if they drop a game and finish with 1 loss and USC wins out? You're putting way too much stock into the strength of schedule. The computers only account for 1/3 of the polls, and if Tech/OSU lose they will end up no less than 5 or 6 spots lower than USC in the human polls. That differential will be more than enough to counterbalance the strength of schedule shortcomings in the computers for USC, and USC will end up ranked at least 3-4 spots higher than either of them in the BCS.

Really, your whole issue here is that you're assuming the polls are logical and fair. They aren't. A team with USC's reputation will always, always, always be ranked higher than a team with Tech or Oklahoma State's reputation, at least in the human polls, if the two have the same record. It's not fair, but that's just how it works.