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Old 12-15-2008, 10:49 AM   #1
alexamenos
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Seriously? He didn't go down to avoid contact he slipped. He could have (and in retrospect should have) taken the first down and an extra yard or two but he was trying to reverse field to stretch the play.

At that point in the game we were still trying to put points on the board because we didn't know how many it would take to win the game. On Witten's play we were trying to collect first downs to run out the clock. In all likelihood TO would have done the same thing Witten did in that situation.
fair enough. i thought it was just a crappy play on his part, but had it been later in the game he might have been a little less likely to make such a bonehead crappy play.
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Old 12-15-2008, 02:00 PM   #2
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fair enough. i thought it was just a crappy play on his part, but had it been later in the game he might have been a little less likely to make such a bonehead crappy play.
Personally, I think you were right the first time. I disagree with dirno here. It looked pretty clear to me that TO was trying to avoid being hit head-on by the 2-3 Giants defenders that were standing right past the first down line.

Ultimately he did slip, but the reason he slipped is because he hesitated about plowing forward and taking the contact.
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Old 12-15-2008, 04:43 PM   #3
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Personally, I think you were right the first time. I disagree with dirno here. It looked pretty clear to me that TO was trying to avoid being hit head-on by the 2-3 Giants defenders that were standing right past the first down line.

Ultimately he did slip, but the reason he slipped is because he hesitated about plowing forward and taking the contact.
Of course he was trying to avoid contact. That's you you turn a 12 yard first down into a 52 yard touchdown. You avoid getting tackled.

The question is, was he avoiding the contact because he was afraid to take hit or because he saw a cutback lane. My thought is if he didn't want to take the hit there was an easy way out. All he had to do was dive forward towards the first down marker. Players do it all the time. The don't fall 3 yards in from of the nearest defender.

The outcome was unfortunate but I can't be mad a him for trying to make a play. Especially when so much of his success has been a result of YAC.
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Old 12-15-2008, 04:51 PM   #4
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Of course he was trying to avoid contact. That's you you turn a 12 yard first down into a 52 yard touchdown. You avoid getting tackled.

The question is, was he avoiding the contact because he was afraid to take hit or because he saw a cutback lane. My thought is if he didn't want to take the hit there was an easy way out. All he had to do was dive forward towards the first down marker. Players do it all the time. The don't fall 3 yards in from of the nearest defender.

The outcome was unfortunate but I can't be mad a him for trying to make a play. Especially when so much of his success has been a result of YAC.
There was a Giants defender directly in front of him, about half a yard behind the marker, as I recall. It sure looked to me like he didn't want to dive into him and get hit.

Even if you're right, and he was just trying to extend the play, that's still the wrong move. When you're a yard away from a 1st down, you make absolutely sure you have the first down before you start trying to extend the play into something more. You don't cut back and try to do something fancy before your forward progress has carried you past the marker.
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Old 12-15-2008, 05:20 PM   #5
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There was a Giants defender directly in front of him, about half a yard behind the marker, as I recall. It sure looked to me like he didn't want to dive into him and get hit.

Even if you're right, and he was just trying to extend the play, that's still the wrong move. When you're a yard away from a 1st down, you make absolutely sure you have the first down before you start trying to extend the play into something more. You don't cut back and try to do something fancy before your forward progress has carried you past the marker.
We'll have to disagree there. Milking the clock in the 4th, by all means get the first down. As far as I'm concerned that was an acceptable risk in the 3rd quarter of a 7-3 game around mid field. It wasn't even 3rd down.

The upside is that you break a big one and take control of the game. If it doesn't work you're looking at a 3rd and short in good punting position.
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Old 12-15-2008, 05:21 PM   #6
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We'll have to disagree there. Milking the clock in the 4th, by all means get the first down. As far as I'm concerned that was an acceptable risk in the 3rd quarter of a 7-3 game around mid field. It wasn't even 3rd down.

The upside is that you break a big one and take control of the game. If it doesn't work you're looking at a 3rd and short in good punting position.
Totally agree.
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Old 12-15-2008, 05:35 PM   #7
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The upside is that you break a big one and take control of the game. If it doesn't work you're looking at a 3rd and short in good punting position.
And the downside is exactly what happened. Instead of a first down and being able to extend the drive, you end up punting, giving the other team all sorts of momentum when you could have easily held onto the ball for a lot longer. Good NFL teams only still only convert about 65-70% or so of their 3rd downs on 3rd and short, so it's not like punting is some rare occurrence in that situation.

When you compare that percentage with the chance that he breaks a big play -- maybe 5%, given that he had 3 defenders within 3 yards of him, including one in front of him, and he didn't have any forward momentum, I think the rational choice is clearly to get the first down.

This is all a moot point from my perspective, since it definitely look to me like he was avoiding contact, but I'm just operating under the assumption that you're correct and that wasn't what he was doing.
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