Official Mavs 2020 Draft/Free Agency Thread - Page 10 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

EricaLubarsky · 11-10-2020, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BPo001

NBA free agency to start Nov 20 at 5 PM CST

I wouldn't get too excited for the Mavs.

The biggest thing that may happen in FA this year with a 40-50% reduction in salary is some teams are going to be dumping salary.

Mavs have no cap room to really sign guys and we don't have the cap room to really absorb guys either.

SMC0007 · 11-10-2020, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

If the Mavs traded 18 & 31 for Woods I'd flip out.

I mean come on he's solid but he ain't worth both of those picks.

I'd rather they try to package those picks to move up or bring in a more legit weapon than Woods.

They aren't going to do that, so you have nothing to worry about. Even still, Wood is going to be better than the 18th pick and it may not even be remotely close. Who know what the 31st pick brings but it likely won't be much.

EricaLubarsky · 11-10-2020, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

If the Mavs traded 18 & 31 for Woods I'd flip out.

I mean come on he's solid but he ain't worth both of those picks.

I'd rather they try to package those picks to move up or bring in a more legit weapon than Woods.

Good to know that you'd lose your mind about something that
1) Hasn't been rumored
2) The Mavs would never do.

DevinHarriswillstart · 11-10-2020, 12:16 PM

Cato has an article out that they discussed on sports radio. I don't have the Athletic, but apparently Cato likes Bane more than Bey which is interesting.

tap2390 · 11-10-2020, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Cato has an article out that they discussed on sports radio. I don't have the Athletic, but apparently Cato likes Bane more than Bey which is interesting.

Here you go:

Really, a 3-and-D wing is a basketball player you can’t pick on. We talk about them a lot; wings who have top-percentile ability on both sides of the court are rare enough that they’re still one of the league’s most valuable commodities. There’s a reason Dorian Finney-Smith played the most total minutes for the Mavericks last season. When he played, other teams simply had to accept his presence.

If the Mavericks keep the No. 18 selection in next week’s upcoming draft, they could bolster their future with a choice between several 3-and-D prospects who are expected to be available. But for as many times as we write and talk about the “3-and-D prospects,” we don’t take enough time to define who qualifies. There’s no singular metric that works here, of course. What we’re looking for is an appropriately balanced amalgamation of these two unique skills, each of which has nuance contained within them. Let me give an overview of the five areas most important to me when defining a prospect and whether he warrants the term 3-and-D.

Shooting quality
Most simply, this is the player’s 3-point percentage. It’s better to hit 40 percent than 28 percent, after all. But it’s also how many 3s they attempted per game, the context of their attempts and their overall track record. Which player is the better shooter: a 40 percent 3-point shooter at Villanova who only attempted 1.8 attempts per game or a 28 percent shooter from a mid-major college who was shooting nearly eight times behind the arc? You would probably already know if you watched both players, the first presumably taking wide-open looks generated from a modern offense while the second taking contested looks while opponents keyed in on him. These evaluations matter. Likewise, a three-year veteran who shot well every year is more trustworthy than a freshman who only played 15 games.

You can also measure quality by a player’s free throw percentage, which has a stronger correlation to NBA 3-point percentage than their actual collegiate 3-point percentage. Think of a free throw as a context-isolated vacuum where players can prove they can consistently repeat the same shooting form. If you’re a 38 percent 3-point shooter who only hits 62 percent of your free throws, many teams will wonder how much of your shooting was just luck.

Shooting tools
There are good college 3-point shooters who still project concerns at the next level, usually due to small sample sizes or questionable shooting forms – or, more likely, both. Jaren Jackson Jr. has a strange shooting form, but he also had a large enough sample size that teams felt comfortable projecting his shooting tools at the NBA level. (He hit 39 percent of his 3s last season.) There are sometimes concerns about shooting range, however. We’ve seen players – most notably Markelle Fultz, although that’s a complicated example – tweak their college shooting forms before heading to the NBA in an attempt to prepare for the longer 3-point line. Occasionally, there are good college shooters who can’t make that adjustment.

It’s also worth considering the type of jumpers players are hitting in college. This is a tool that can be developed, but it’s telling if a shooter can already run off screens, dribble into jumpers or – increasingly needed in the modern NBA – step back to create 3s.

Offensive ability
While not directly related to the 3-and-D label, it does matter what a prospect can do offensively beyond simply shooting. A player who isn’t good at running pick-and-rolls or creating in isolation won’t be asked to do those things, but an elite 3-point shooter will still have to make decisions with the basketball when chased off the line by an aggressive closeout. Can the player make simple passing reads or effectively get to the rim? This is less important than actually hitting 3s, mind you, but it should be a factor.

Defensive ability
A prospect who isn’t a good college defender probably won’t be good in the NBA, either. Inconsistency can be fixed, but instincts are harder to instill. Likewise, players who don’t generate steals and blocks at the college level – splashy stats that often portray a player’s mix of athleticism, instinct and timing – likely won’t do so at the NBA level, either. Remember, off-ball defense is just as, if not more important than on-ball defense. At a minimum, a potential 3-and-D prospect should have shown the ability to adequately defend man-to-man and provide proper help defense. Without being able to do that at the college level, you’re probably just looking at a shooting specialist.

Defensive tools
This is where we factor in height, wingspan, size and athleticism. Height is obvious. Wingspan, though, must factor into any discussions about height. Players who have negative wingspans – when their outstretched arms are shorter than their toe-to-head height – play smaller, while a 6’4 player with a 6’11 wingspan might be perfectly suitable guard opposing power forwards. Size isn’t really about the current weight of a player, but how much you can project muscle development onto them. A 190-pound wing with broad shoulders probably has more weight-room potential than a 210-pound guard. As for athleticism, remember that it’s less about sprint speed and vertical leap and more about side-to-side agility and flexibility. When defending, you’re asked to turn your hips sidewise and retreat 10 feet without letting an opponent get around you far more often than you’re asked to get down in a crouch and start sprinting.

Good college defenders who lack these qualities might only be average defenders at the NBA level, and vice versa. But note that tools aren’t everything.

Sometimes, bad defenders are just bad defenders, no matter how athletic they are, and sometimes, players who don’t have exceptional physical tools simply have the right instincts to excel.

Intangibles
I always find it slightly uncomfortable talking about college kids in terms of “tools” and “ability,” even though that’s the language of the draft. Teams have spoken with any player who might be drafted. It’s obviously important how that person comes across in interviews and to those around him.

3-and-D wing prospects we won’t mention in this breakdown
Devin Vassell is an extremely certain 3-and-D prospect, and Isaac Okoro is typically rated even higher in most mock drafts – and does have a higher ceiling – even if I personally value Vassell more than him. Both will be gone when the Mavericks arrive at No. 18. Another player who will likely be taken is Patrick Williams, the Florida State freshman who might be more of a 4/5 hybrid than a proper wing, even though most draft sites still call him that. At 6’8 with a 6’11 wingspan, he has a lot of defensive tools and offensive skills. But he’s a stiff man defender – this is why we question his ability to guard wings – without much success shooting 3s, even spot-up ones. Even if he remains on the board, I’m not sure I would select him. Leandro Bolmaro projects as more of a playmaker than a 3-point shooter right now, but he has the potential to develop into a Joe Ingles-type player, which makes him worth looking into in a later article.

Other names who might be in consideration later in the draft: Robert Woodard II, Tyler Bey, Elijah Hughes. Count me out on Jaden McDaniels.

Desmond Bane, 6’6 (6’5 wingspan), 22 years old
The TCU senior has played 141 collegiate games and shot nearly 600 3s. He’s the most certain shooter in the entire draft for this reason: we know how consistently well he shot from deep (43.3 percent for his career), the shooting tools he showed (shooting off movement and the dribble) and his strong free-throw percentage (80.4 percent for his career). What’s more of a question is his defensive abilities, which aren’t bolstered by elite defensive tools. You probably aren’t drafting an elite defensive stopper. But we know Bane has been a strong defender throughout his collegiate career; at worst, he should be average. He has enough versatility to guard 2s, 3s and smaller 4s. He’s also developed enough to immediate project contributions from him next season. Bane won’t surprise you, not at 22 and not with his tools. But you know exactly what skillset you’re getting with him, and it’s a good one.

Aaron Nesmith, 6’6 (6’10 wingspan), 21 years old
Nesmith, a Vanderbilt sophomore who just turned 21 last month, is most like Bane, with slightly higher upside but slightly more questions. He shot 119-of-290 in his two-year collegiate career, including 52 percent in the 14 games he played last season. He’s a versatile sharpshooter who can launch 3s in nearly all situations. With his size and his ability to finish at the rim, he can attack closeouts efficiently, but he doesn’t project as a shot creator or a playmaker. (Again, that’s fine; it’s just part of the whole picture.) While his defensive tools suggest there’s a good defender contained within him, he didn’t always make the college impact you would hope. His athleticism isn’t as functional as you might hope.

Saddiq Bey, 6’8 (6’10 wingspan), 21 years old
The Villanova sophomore worries me more than the above two because I’m not sold on either skill. He has the shooting quality and the defensive tools, sure, but his unorthodox shooting mechanics and lower free-throw percentages make me reconsider his shooting, while his low block-and-steal numbers combined with his sometimes underwhelming defensive work has me wondering if he’ll only be average. I’m sure Bey will be a minutes-eater because average two-way players are that. But a 3-and-D player who can’t provide above-average shooting or above-average defending will never be a high-impact role player, the type you want on a championship contender. I feel more comfortable with Nesmith and Bane, anyhow.

Josh Green, 6’6 (6’10 wingspan), 19 years old
The toolsiest 3-and-D option likely to be available at No. 18 is Green, an Arizona freshman. All three players above have proven shooting pedigrees; for Green, we’re projecting shooting excellence after he hit 36.1 percent on just under three attempts per game his one collegiate season. That’s a low number of attempts and a small sample size, which usually would scare me. It’s the shooting tools that bolster confidence: He hit 78 percent at the line, and his mechanics look sound, even showing the ability to pull-up off the dribble and otherwise hit jumpers that aren’t easy catch-and-shoots. On the other end, Green undoubtedly has the highest defensive upside of the four options listed here. He’s good on and off the ball, enough so that you even saw him guard opposing point guards while at Arizona. That lateral movement to defend across the positional spectrum is what most stands out about him. If you trust what you see from him offensively as a malleable, developable skillset – because every aspect of his offensive game needs improvement to be NBA quality – then he’s the highest upside player in this four-man pool.

DevinHarriswillstart · 11-10-2020, 12:36 PM

Must spread rep.

Man, that wingspan is a bit of a worry, but Bane has everything else for a good role player.

I don't see Nesmith or Bey being available at 18.

SMC0007 · 11-10-2020, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Cato has an article out that they discussed on sports radio. I don't have the Athletic, but apparently Cato likes Bane more than Bey which is interesting.

Maybe I missed something, but why is that interesting?

I feel like Bane is the better player and more importantly a better fit for us.

MFFL · 11-10-2020, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BPo001

NBA free agency to start Nov 20 at 5 PM CST

Supposedly trades will be allowed starting the 16th

mac222b · 11-10-2020, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MFFL

Supposedly trades will be allowed starting the 16th

Getting way too excited already. So close to trade, draft and FA and then the season soon after. Hopefully. Can’t wait to see what’s in store for our “Boys in Blue” haha.

EricaLubarsky · 11-10-2020, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MFFL

Supposedly trades will be allowed starting the 16th

16th trades are open
18th draft
20th FA season

This year has been hell but I love that we are going to have a kick-ass and absolute bonkers week there

KillerLeft · 11-10-2020, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

16th trades are open
18th draft
20th FA season

This year has been hell but I love that we are going to have a kick-ass and absolute bonkers week there

RIGHT??!

It’s gonna be crazy all the way solidly through the first regular season game, with no breaks.

Zaknaf3in · 11-11-2020, 04:59 AM

Wait, that's just next week? wooooo

KillerLeft · 11-11-2020, 11:25 AM

So, the big rumor today is that the Mavs and Clippers, who have apparently already been talking independently of this Chris Paul stuff, might get roped into the deal to send Paul from OKC to PHX.

Too early to tell for sure, but some of the speculation I've seen is that Dallas would give up Wright/DFS/18 for a rental of useful but overpaid Oubre and pick #10. A couple of friends of mine are convinced the Mavs are desperate to get Killian Hayes, who might be there, but I also think there's a good chance Vassell is there.

Either way, they'd potentially add a nice young player, and this move would get them all the way to a max slot next summer. To me, this is a home run. Almost too good to be true.

EricaLubarsky · 11-11-2020, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KillerLeft

So, the big rumor today is that the Mavs and Clippers, who have apparently already been talking independently of this Chris Paul stuff, might get roped into the deal to send Paul from OKC to PHX.

Too early to tell for sure, but some of the speculation I've seen is that Dallas would give up Wright/DFS/18 for a rental of useful but overpaid Oubre and pick #10. A couple of friends of mine are convinced the Mavs are desperate to get Killian Hayes, who might be there, but I also think there's a good chance Vassell is there.

Either way, they'd potentially add a nice young player, and this move would get them all the way to a max slot next summer. To me, this is a home run. Almost too good to be true.

That's a hell of a deal for us.

Oubre is a hell of a scorer and fits that scoring PF we need.
Moving to 18 to 10 is a no-brainer
DFS is a little sad, but I think there are some 3/D guys in the draft and FA
Wright I won't really miss

I think Hayes may go 1-5, but if he's there at 10, then we might have the steal of the draft. KOC thinks he's the best player in the draft and the guy most likely to be a star. I could see him really complementing Doncic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z31Mp5nq61c

Even if he's not available, I think there are a lot of guys in that 10-16 range that can immediately come in and make us better.

DevinHarriswillstart · 11-11-2020, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KillerLeft

So, the big rumor today is that the Mavs and Clippers, who have apparently already been talking independently of this Chris Paul stuff, might get roped into the deal to send Paul from OKC to PHX.

Too early to tell for sure, but some of the speculation I've seen is that Dallas would give up Wright/DFS/18 for a rental of useful but overpaid Oubre and pick #10. A couple of friends of mine are convinced the Mavs are desperate to get Killian Hayes, who might be there, but I also think there's a good chance Vassell is there.

Either way, they'd potentially add a nice young player, and this move would get them all the way to a max slot next summer. To me, this is a home run. Almost too good to be true.

Yes, yes, and yes. Selling high on role players like DFS is a smart play as much as we all like him.

tap2390 · 11-11-2020, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

That's a hell of a deal for us.

Oubre is a hell of a scorer and fits that scoring PF we need.
Moving to 18 to 10 is a no-brainer
DFS is a little sad, but I think there are some 3/D guys in the draft and FA
Wright I won't really miss

I think Hayes may go 1-5, but if he's there at 10, then we might have the steal of the draft. KOC thinks he's the best player in the draft and the guy most likely to be a star. I could see him really complementing Doncic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z31Mp5nq61c

Even if he's not available, I think there are a lot of guys in that 10-16 range that can immediately come in and make us better.

Too good to be true. What the hell do they need us for?

DevinHarriswillstart · 11-11-2020, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tap2390

Too good to be true. What the hell do they need us for?

They probably don't, but it's fun to dream with 2020 being so bad. Remember, trades can't be done for another 5 days, so I'd take most of this stuff with a serious grain. Too easy to fall apart at this point.

KillerLeft · 11-11-2020, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tap2390

Too good to be true. What the hell do they need us for?

That's pretty much exactly what I said. My initial thought is that any picks involved would go to OKC, who would be giving up the prize in Paul, obvs.

Other possible outcomes for Dallas:

Rubio

Beverly/Oubre

Going to be a lot of speculation about this one. Crazy stuff.

quietsavant · 11-11-2020, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KillerLeft

So, the big rumor today is that the Mavs and Clippers, who have apparently already been talking independently of this Chris Paul stuff, might get roped into the deal to send Paul from OKC to PHX.

Too early to tell for sure, but some of the speculation I've seen is that Dallas would give up Wright/DFS/18 for a rental of useful but overpaid Oubre and pick #10. A couple of friends of mine are convinced the Mavs are desperate to get Killian Hayes, who might be there, but I also think there's a good chance Vassell is there.

Either way, they'd potentially add a nice young player, and this move would get them all the way to a max slot next summer. To me, this is a home run. Almost too good to be true.

https://itsgame7.com/suns-clippers-m...-4-team-trade/

looks like the clippers want a piece of that deal too

Dallas41 · 11-11-2020, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tap2390

If the Mavs trade 18 and 31 for anything other than Bradley Beal or Giannis Antetokounmpo I will revolt. We will NEED young players with upside on rookie deals if we want to build a complete team around Luka and KP. If we don’t get those we’re going to end up like the Bucks when it’s time to pay Luka.

Yeah I'm with you on this one.

NeedlesKane · 11-12-2020, 02:34 AM

I think James Harden wants out of Houston. How about we have the top 2 stepback 3-point shooters on the same team? I think it'd be awesome if Luka could learn from James Harden directly. That'd be a dream for me. I hate Harden in Houston but would love him in Dallas honestly.

sefant77 · 11-12-2020, 03:35 AM

I hate Hardens game in general, so hell no.

tap2390 · 11-12-2020, 08:46 AM

I can’t justify hating Harden’s game because Luka plays so much like him, but boy do I hate his attitude, leadership, intangibles, etc.

SMC0007 · 11-12-2020, 09:10 AM

Harden....smh. Do you wanna lose games 160-175? Because that's how you lose games where you score 160 pts. On todays episode of "This wild fantasy" we toy with the idea of trading KP, our picks, whoever else and our dignity.

purplefrog · 11-12-2020, 09:38 AM

Regarding Oubre... Is he a boy scout or a bastard?

SMC0007 · 11-12-2020, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplefrog

Regarding Oubre... Is he a boy scout or a bastard?

He's an mid-level bastard. Youtube has some of his dust ups. He isn't scared.

purplefrog · 11-12-2020, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

He's an mid-level bastard. Youtube has some of his dust ups. He isn't scared.

I all-in for a bastard or two.

EricaLubarsky · 11-12-2020, 10:09 AM

Oubre has that NVE edge

That said, Luka is nice, but young. We don't have the elder vets like Finley, Nash, Dirk, etc.

DevinHarriswillstart · 11-12-2020, 10:49 AM

Would you give up DFS/Wright/18 for Oubre without getting 10 back in return?

EricaLubarsky · 11-12-2020, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Would you give up DFS/Wright/18 for Oubre without getting 10 back in return?

Nope

mac222b · 11-12-2020, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Would you give up DFS/Wright/18 for Oubre without getting 10 back in return?

Heck no. If that’s the price to get off Delon then he has beyond negative trade value. DFS is worth way more than Oubre, contracts taken into consideration.

KillerLeft · 11-12-2020, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

Heck no. If that’s the price to get off Delon then he has beyond negative trade value. DFS is worth way more than Oubre, contracts taken into consideration.

Totally agree.

But, I also don't think they're getting #10 out of that, either.

So, there's got to be something involved we're not hearing.

mac222b · 11-12-2020, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KillerLeft

Totally agree.

But, I also don't think they're getting #10 out of that, either.

So, there's got to be something involved we're not hearing.

I agree. If #10 is not coming back to us, there must be something else of value coming back our way. Oubre had meniscus surgery too if I’m not mistaken. Even if we feel good about FA options through back channels, punting on this season can not seem appealing. And DFS has one of the best contracts in the league and we developed him. Continuity and depth is going to be important. I just don’t see that deal for only Oubre. Maybe we get a lower first instead of 10?

tap2390 · 11-12-2020, 01:21 PM

A straight up DFS/ Wright/ #18 for Oubre/ #10 is worth considering (but even then you have to factor in the defensive and 3P% downgrade).

DevinHarriswillstart · 11-12-2020, 02:57 PM

Tankathon has us taking Bey now. Don't mess with my emotions fools.

EricaLubarsky · 11-12-2020, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Tankathon has us taking Bey now. Don't mess with my emotions fools.

ESPN/Draftexpress is historically the most accurate and has had us taking him for the longest time.

KillerLeft · 11-12-2020, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tap2390

A straight up DFS/ Wright/ #18 for Oubre/ #10 is worth considering (but even then you have to factor in the defensive and 3P% downgrade).

I have some buddies on another forum who are CONVINCED the Mavs are desperate to move up for Killian Hayes. They’ve been on that same track for weeks.

I’m not sure what to think, but I’m pretty confident that DFS is not enough to move up 8 spots, let alone unload Wright‘s contract.

EricaLubarsky · 11-12-2020, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KillerLeft

I have some buddies on another forum who are CONVINCED the Mavs are desperate to move up for Killian Hayes. They’ve been on that same track for weeks.

I’m not sure what to think, but I’m pretty confident that DFS is not enough to move up 8 spots, let alone unload Wright‘s contract.

I don't even think people would do DFS for Oubre unless it was an attitude dump

mac222b · 11-12-2020, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I don't even think people would do DFS for Oubre unless it was an attitude dump

I think DFS has higher value, considering his contract and unselfish nature. He plays his role. And as Tap said, he’s a better defender and 3 point shooter, though I think Oubre has been a pretty good defender and is only 24. Oubre has also been dinged up a lot, just had meniscus surgery. DFS is healthy.

mac222b · 11-12-2020, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KillerLeft

I have some buddies on another forum who are CONVINCED the Mavs are desperate to move up for Killian Hayes. They’ve been on that same track for weeks.

I’m not sure what to think, but I’m pretty confident that DFS is not enough to move up 8 spots, let alone unload Wright‘s contract.

I like Hayes. He could be a guy that scores 20ppg in a few years and be instant offense. Would hate to lose DFS but if they think they are trading for a “star” or just below that it’s worth it. I just don’t see it as constructed, as you’ve said. We’d have to send more to get to 10.