Obama beats McCain in three swing states: poll

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by Mavdog

the mccain campaign is hoping that your cynical view of the youth turn out to vote this november proves correct.

if you and they are wrong, the mccain/palin ticket is in deep dodo...and the obama/biden camppaign is working to make sure the voters get there this november.

do you feel lucky?

Actually, by the time the election gets here, I don't believe that it'll be nearly as close as it is now. I fully expect the US to be more than ready to kick Obama to the curb by then.

I'll truly be happy with the Dem's taking quite a bit of everything except the WH. I'm by no means a straight ticket guy. But I do believe that Obama is an evil man.

[Mavdog]

historically correct.

it's also true that black americans have not had high turnout in the past.

do you want to predict that will continue this year as well?

[Murphy3]

I think we'll see more women and more African Americans. one will help one party..the other will help the other.

[Mavdog]

you sure use the word "evil" loosely murphy.

we've seen evil before, and we can all see that there are evil people out there today.

to apply the phrase to obama sure minimizes its true meaning.

[Murphy3]

I don't think so. Anyone that would be pro live birth abortions is an evil person in my book.

[Mavdog]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

I think we'll see more women and more African Americans. one will help one party..the other will help the other.

don't look now, but according to these polls the majority of women are voting for obama.

my bet is that gulf will increase by the time november rolls around

[wmbwinn]

historically correct.

it's also true that black americans have not had high turnout in the past.

do you want to predict that will continue this year as well?

No, I would not bet against a record African American turnout.

But, be careful. That "bet" is paralleled by the Palin-Woman "bet" and I can hear Mary breathing down my back (joking) for re-introducing that...

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by Mavdog

don't look now, but according to these polls the majority of women are voting for obama.

my bet is that gulf will increase by the time november rolls around

Let me rput it another way... I think the number of women voters that are swinging towards McCain or just deciding to vote will more than make up for the African American vote that was gained by dem's when they decided upon nominating Satan's son.

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by Murphy3
I think we'll see more women and more African Americans. one will help one party..the other will help the other.

Originally posted by Mavdog
don't look now, but according to these polls the majority of women are voting for obama.

my bet is that gulf will increase by the time november rolls around

I'm too lazy to do the research and I don't have a premium membership with Rasmussens who I know tracks this, but I am pretty sure that:
1) the majority of women are voting for Obama (I'm pretty sure the latest Rasmussen poll shows a 8 percent advantage to Obama for the female vote)
2)I'm pretty sure that that 8 percent advantage is quite a drop from what he had before he
a)didn't pick Hillary
b)Palin effect

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

No, I would not bet against a record African American turnout.

But, be careful. That "bet" is paralleled by the Palin-Woman "bet" and I can hear Mary breathing down my back (joking) for re-introducing that...

You'd be right not to bet against the black vote, because they have never had as much reason to vote as they do now.

As for women...well, as Mavdog said, they still vote Democrat more than Republican. Obama's big problem, if he has one, is with white men. Palin probably helps him there.

Still and all, the national polls are meaningless. The only meaningful polls are those in the swing states. What is Ohio going to do? Florida? Michigan? Nevada and Colorado?

That is all that is going to matter.

[Mavdog]

nope, not even close.

look at it this way, if things remain the same and no loss/no gain by either of em...

51% of women support obama, 44% support mccain

90% of black americans support obama.....

you do the math....

[Murphy3]

Personally, I must say that none of the African Americans that I know consider Obama to be 'black'.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Personally, I must say that none of the African Americans that I know consider Obama to be 'black'.

And none of the women I know consider him to be "Satan's son."

[Mavdog]

yeah murph, read a piece on that acceptance problem recently. doesn't look or talk "urban".

but they like michelle a lot...

[Murphy3]

Once again, how many African American's vote... and how large of a swing have we seen in the female 'vote' since Palin joined the ticket...

[wmbwinn]

Chum is correct. And, the latest trend in the swing states has been towards McCain/Palin.

Mavdog is correct, her poll shows a 7% advantage to Obama with women.

Chum is correct that the polls are showing the McCain advantage to be among White persons.

I am very curious to know about the Hispanic vote. The ten percent flip in New Mexico has me wondering if Hispanics like Palin.

[Murphy3]

double post..
Obama is evil... obama is evil... obama is evil... obama is evil.. obama is evil... obama is evil

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

Chum is correct. And, the latest trend in the swing states has been towards McCain/Palin.

Mavdog is correct, her poll shows a 7% advantage to Obama with women.

Chum is correct that the polls are showing the McCain advantage to be among White persons.

I am very curious to know about the Hispanic vote. The ten percent flip in New Mexico has me wondering if Hispanics like Palin.

Why would Hispanics like Palin? And more importantly, why would Hispanics like McCain?

That's another voting bloc that is going underrepresented in the polls. I suspect NM will go to Obama handily, and that Texas and Arizona will be far closer than most expect.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

double post..
Obama is evil... obama is evil... obama is evil... obama is evil.. obama is evil... obama is evil

We get it, dude. You were a nurse and you hate the idea of abortion. You don't have to keep repeating it.

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Why would Hispanics like Palin? And more importantly, why would Hispanics like McCain?

That's another voting bloc that is going underrepresented in the polls. I suspect NM will go to Obama handily, and that Texas and Arizona will be far closer than most expect.

Hispanics are torn between dividing forces in my observation/impression:

Republican platform: anti abortion. The vast majority of Hispanics are Catholic and they tend to actually follow the Church's position on abortion whereas many White Catholics seem to not really care about that or the position on birth control. Now, I think that the Hispanics would have liked McCain's earlier immigration bill that was shot down. But, since the Republicans shot down the McCain bill, there is a split as to whether to accept McCain or lump him together with the GOP's opposition. The Republican Primary race offended the Hispanic vote. But, I think that Palin's position on abortion would be very appealing to most Catholic Hispanics.

Dem: mainly economics and race. mainly responding to the same proletariat message that I get flamed for discussing in greater detail.

[wmbwinn]

Saturday, September 13, 2008
New state polling from Missouri has helped move that state from from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. With this change, McCain now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama is ahead in states with 193 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 259, McCain 247.

Currently, states with 124 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Four states with a total of 32 votes -- Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...college_update

This marks the first time that Rasmussen has shown McCain ahead when only the states that are definitely split well beyond the statistical error window are included.

Still, with the leaning states included, neither candidate has the minimum to win. So, it comes down to a small handful of truly split states...

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

We get it, dude. You were a nurse and you hate the idea of abortion. You don't have to keep repeating it.

I was a nurse? Really? I've had a couple of careers, but that's not one of them.

Anyways, I think Obama is just a bad person in general. He's the type of politician that is all about the votes..will do what it takes to get the votes regardless of how many directions he has to change. Plus, some of the ties that he has suggests that he is a pretty bad dude..

Let's see...accounting..sales...financial analyst..
Oh, I forgot..did work as a cashier at a convenience store while in college from 18-20 years old.. Also worked in maintenance for a few months at Morrison Milling in Denton before getting my accounting start.

nope, no nursing.. but thanks.

[aquaadverse]

Originally Posted by Mavdog

the mccain campaign is hoping that your cynical view of the youth turn out to vote this november proves correct.

if you and they are wrong, the mccain/palin ticket is in deep dodo...and the obama/biden camppaign is working to make sure the voters get there this november.

do you feel lucky?

I've been voting since the '70's. Every election, the youth vote is going turn the tide. And fails to show up. Every time. If you have free music and food you can sign up a lot of people, but voting in large enough numbers to make a difference is a whole different thing.

Remember Deaniacs? The reason he went from the exciting, modern front runner to goat was because of being the candidate who got it and used the net to raise money and mobilize youth, and just became the latest wiff. More youngsters voted in '04, but more of every demographic voted, and the percentage stayed the same.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/erbe/200...ays-youth.html

It's not a matter of lucky. Just like every new generation thinks they invented angst and sex, they think they're the first to understand politics.

[dude1394]

Ruh roh.... Might have to mark Florida off the list.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politic...icle808637.ece

Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.

Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America's biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state.

Obama can still win Florida despite the polling gains McCain has made since naming Sarah Palin his running mate, and there is no sign Obama is pulling back in Florida yet. Far from it. Obama allies say he has about 350 paid staffers in the state and about 50 field offices, including in places not known as fertile ground for Democrats, such as Sun City Center, Lake City and Sebring.

But for all the attention to Florida from the Obama campaign, there's little tangible evidence it's paying off.

He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.

Four Florida polls came out this week, with one showing a tied race, the others showing McCain leading by 5 to 8 percentage points.

[wmbwinn]

Obama has run very hard in Florida and Colorado. In Colorado, it paid off to a degree. But, in Florida, as soon as McCain starting running ads, McCain blew out a significant lead. Obama has set up quite an operation in Colorado. He has the narrowest lead there as a result.

I am frankly shocked that New Mexico flipped like it did. I wish someone like Rasmussen would research that and find out what happened there.

I would be frankly worried if I cared about the Dem cause regarding the New Mexico flip.
I would be equally worried about Washington state. Why are these states flipping to even races?
I think Colorado will go McCain.

At least those are the trends right now...

[dude1394]

ruh oh..
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archive.../09/021504.php

This AP/GfK poll finds John McCain with a four-point lead over Barack Obama, which is typical these days. But this observation is interesting:

This is the problem with the Democrats' attempt to attack Governor Palin's purported inexperience: she is, by any reasonable standard, better qualified for the Presidency than Barack Obama. And if experience is what voters are looking for, McCain is the obvious choice.

[dude1394]

ruh oh...even congress is now in play... TheOne is starting to...you know...sorta smell a little bit...

http://www.nypost.com/seven/09142008...ast_129005.htm

The tectonic plates are definitely rumbling. Partisan Democrats may not believe it, but independents and dispirited Republicans now see the McCain-Palin pick as a sharp break with Bush (McCain now has a double-digit lead over the "post-partisan" Obama among independents).

The Democrats' advantage in party identification has been cut from the mid-high teens earlier this summer to a mere five points, and the shrinkage continues. Gallup's generic poll asking voters whom they'd vote for for Congress may be even more telling. Last month, Democrats led by 11 points; now the GOP is down 3 points among registered voters. And among likely voters, Republicans are actually a full five points ahead.

Now, obviously, this is all a snapshot of the race, as they say, but sometimes you can tell a lot from a snapshot. Take a snapshot of the fans at a baseball game sometime right before they think they've lost, and compare it to a snapshot taken right after a game-changing home run, and you'll see what I mean.

Heh...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs

[mary]

[Evilmav2]

Originally Posted by dude1394

ruh oh...even congress is now in play... TheOne is starting to...you know...sorta smell a little bit...

Yup... It kind of smells like a rotting old fish wrapped in a piece of paper called 'change'...

[u2sarajevo]

I usually know how the polls are going without checking them by whoever was the last to post in this thread.... until Evil messed that all up.

[mary]

Further signs that McCain is making ground

Sportsbook

Obam (-160)
McCain (+120)

McCain is moving closer to even money.

Obam (-150)
McCain (+110)

[Flacolaco]

I think Obama and his ideas are the worst thing possible for this country...but come on...he's going to win. I'm surprised they're even offering a line. If you want to make some money, -150 is probably about as good as it's going to get on Barry. After the debates it'll definitely slide back the other way.

[mary]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

I think Obama and his ideas are the worst thing possible for this country...but come on...he's going to win. I'm surprised they're even offering a line. If you want to make some money, -150 is probably about as good as it's going to get on Barry. After the debates it'll definitely slide back the other way.

Flaco, if you were a democrat ((((((insert smartass comment here))))))))), I'd tell you that you were counting your eggs WAAAYYYYY before they hatch.

Its September. There's still plenty of time for dirty politics to swing the race one way or the other.

Just my opinion, of course.

[Flacolaco]

I just don't see that the republicans have any more bullets in their gun to fire. I think Palin was brilliant, politically, and the numbers supported that. But now what? Now Barracks people should have had enough time to adjust, and the numbers are showing that too. It's swinging back to Obama, and the debates will probably continue that trend. Regardless of what answers the two give, the talking heads on the tv will have plenty of chances to tell the American people that McCain is old, and that Obama is well spoken unlike our last President.

I don't think the Republicans have anymore bullets in their gun, and I think Obama will have a healthy double digit lead going into November.

I'm just putting it down for the record. And I absolutely hate it. Prove me wrong, John.

edit: Just my opinion, of course and I'm sorry if this offends you.

[Murphy3]

I'm sure that something about Obama that will be incredibly damning will come out. Obama is a piece of crap.. something will come out.

[u2sarajevo]

I think it's simpler than that Flac.

Not to sound like the ONE but this Country of ours wants change. And when that is the case the voting public doesn't rehire the candidate from the same party. The next 6 weeks will be fun now because of Palin, but when it comes down to the wire the voter will vote for something different than what we have.

I just wish that would translate into more Congressional seats for the good guys.

[Flacolaco]

Originally Posted by u2sarajevo

I think it's simpler than that Flac.

Not to sound like the ONE but this Country of ours wants change. And when that is the case the voting public doesn't rehire the candidate from the same party. The next 6 weeks will be fun now because of Palin, but when it comes down to the wire the voter will vote for something different than what we have.

I just wish that would translate into more Congressional seats for the good guys.

Yup. That's why it's so incredibly pathetic for the Obamessiah that it's still this close.

[jefelump]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

Yup. That's why it's so incredibly pathetic for the Obamessiah that it's still this close.

Exactly. I have been saying for a while now that it's Obama's election to lose. If by some miracle he actually loses, it will be his own damn fault. No blaming Palin...

[aquaadverse]

Originally Posted by u2sarajevo

I think it's simpler than that Flac.

Not to sound like the ONE but this Country of ours wants change. And when that is the case the voting public doesn't rehire the candidate from the same party. The next 6 weeks will be fun now because of Palin, but when it comes down to the wire the voter will vote for something different than what we have.

I just wish that would translate into more Congressional seats for the good guys.

Motion is not the same as efficiencies. The last time an unpopular Republican administration was outed for change, we got Carter. His total ineptness is still being paid for.

And we got a change in the Senate. That's worked well.

[rabbitproof]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

I just don't see that the republicans have any more bullets in their gun to fire. I think Palin was brilliant, politically, and the numbers supported that. But now what? Now Barracks people should have had enough time to adjust, and the numbers are showing that too. It's swinging back to Obama, and the debates will probably continue that trend. Regardless of what answers the two give, the talking heads on the tv will have plenty of chances to tell the American people that McCain is old, and that Obama is well spoken unlike our last President.

I don't think the Republicans have anymore bullets in their gun, and I think Obama will have a healthy double digit lead going into November.

I'm just putting it down for the record. And I absolutely hate it. Prove me wrong, John.

edit: Just my opinion, of course and I'm sorry if this offends you.

Haha, by time to adjust do you mean witness with the rest of america as the current admin watches wall street go down in flames? :P

Because I'm sorry if anybody else thinks it's something either party said or did over the last few days that has turned this race by 6-8 points. It's the reminders that the economy sucks that did it. Any more bad financial news should lead into similar responses.