PGT: 2-2, 102 degrees ain't enough Heat to stop Dirk down the stretch! - Page 10 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

LonghornDub · 06-08-2011, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

Honestly.... 40-45.

I guess I should have said I'm not "confident" rather than "extremely confident", although both are tue.

If the Mavs won Game 5, would you jump up to an 80+? Or is the big concern having to close it out in Miami?

I'm actually pretty damn confident they win Game 5, but I think taking another in Miami will be tough.

fluid.forty.one · 06-08-2011, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

If the Mavs won Game 5, would you jump up to an 80+? Or is the big concern having to close it out in Miami?

I'm actually pretty damn confident they win Game 5, but I think taking another in Miami will be tough.

Yes.

For me, the concern is tomorrow. I think they can win 1 of 2 in Miami if both were cracks at win #4. Dirk has never won 3 and not gotten to 4.

Mavsfan4ever · 06-08-2011, 05:54 PM

I hope RC sticks to the same starting line up in game 5. Stevenson off the bench was pure magic.

LonghornDub · 06-08-2011, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

Yes.

For me, the concern is tomorrow. I think they can win 1 of 2 in Miami if both were cracks at win #4. Dirk has never won 3 and not gotten to 4.

Whoops, I didn't read your previous post closely enough, cause that's clearly what you said initially.

I'm the opposite. I think they got it in the bag tomorrow. I don't see these guys losing 2/3 home games total with so much on the line. Especially not after they somehow managed to win this last one despite pretty much every single thing going wrong.

Mavsfan4ever · 06-08-2011, 05:59 PM

I thought enough went right last night. We played the best defense we've played all series despite the score being so close.

FINtastic · 06-08-2011, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

If the Mavs won Game 5, would you jump up to an 80+? Or is the big concern having to close it out in Miami?

I'm actually pretty damn confident they win Game 5, but I think taking another in Miami will be tough.

Really? I'm of the opposite opinion. I can't see the winner of Game 5 losing this series. Even if Dallas has to close out in Miami, I still think two shots will be plenty for this Mavs squad. Plus, this Miami team isn't built for adversity. If you can get them on the ropes, I'm pretty confident they'll be finished.

Game 5 is going to be the one for all the marbles. I think Miami knows this too, and it's going to make for an all-out war on Thursday night.

LonghornDub · 06-08-2011, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FINtastic

Really? I'm of the opposite opinion. I can't see the winner of Game 5 losing this series. Even if Dallas has to close out in Miami, I still think two shots will be plenty for this Mavs squad. Plus, this Miami team isn't built for adversity. If you can get them on the ropes, I'm pretty confident they'll be finished.

Game 5 is going to be the one for all the marbles. I think Miami knows this too, and it's going to make for an all-out war on Thursday night.

Yeah, maybe I'm being downright ridiculous, but I think the Mavs win a "comfortable" one tomorrow.

("Comfortable" in this series is winning by like 7 points instead of 2.)

Underdog · 06-08-2011, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FINtastic

Really? I'm of the opposite opinion. I can't see the winner of Game 5 losing this series. Even if Dallas has to close out in Miami, I still think two shots will be plenty for this Mavs squad. Plus, this Miami team isn't built for adversity. If you can get them on the ropes, I'm pretty confident they'll be finished.

Game 5 is going to the one for all the marbles. I think Miami knows this too, and it's going to make for an all-out war on Thursday night.

I agree with this - winner of Game 5 takes all.

The Mavs have already split once in Miami, I have no doubt they can do it again... Miami doesn't exactly have much of a HCA.

badfish22 · 06-08-2011, 06:06 PM

Yup, Im with fluid and Fin. Thursdays game is huge, and I really want to have the opportunity to see what Dirk does in a Finals close out game.

If you give this hungry bunch TWO chances to win it all, I don't see them giving it up. Game 5 is for it all imho.

Rick41 · 06-08-2011, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Yeah, maybe I'm being downright ridiculous, but I think the Mavs win a "comfortable" one tomorrow.

("Comfortable" in this series is winning by like 7 points instead of 2.)

God could I use one of those tomorrow.

My anxiety and emotional distress is at an all time high.

Mavsfan4ever · 06-08-2011, 06:10 PM

If Tyson comes alive again on the boards like game 4 and we cut back on the TO's we should win game 5.

skakavac · 06-08-2011, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nowitzness81

YO LEBRON!

MARION THINKS YOU A BITCH!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Cbt2...layer_embedded

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/mavericks/post/_/id/4679530/look-whos-always-talking-jason-terry

then just look at the video what Chuck has to say about the heat :-)

xrobx · 06-08-2011, 06:51 PM

right now i'd say i'm about 25 percent confident on our chances of winning the series, if we win tomorrow it shoots up to a 50 percent, basically a coin toss. if we lose tomorrow it'll dip to about 1 percent.

iella · 06-08-2011, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xrobx

right now i'd say i'm about 25 percent confident on our chances of winning the series, if we win tomorrow it shoots up to a 50 percent, basically a coin toss. if we lose tomorrow it'll dip to about 1 percent.

Basically what you're saying is that you're more confident in the ability of the Heat to overcome a 2-3 series deficit than you are in the Mavs' ability. Not sure I agree with that, based on recent history.

SMC0007 · 06-08-2011, 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iella

Basically what you're saying is that you're more confident in the ability of the Heat to overcome a 2-3 series deficit than you are in the Mavs' ability. Not sure I agree with that, based on recent history.

Or he's saying that if we can't win two in a row now... why should it be different with even more pressure to stay alive AT MIAMI.

Thespiralgoeson · 06-08-2011, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xrobx

right now i'd say i'm about 25 percent confident on our chances of winning the series, if we win tomorrow it shoots up to a 50 percent, basically a coin toss. if we lose tomorrow it'll dip to about 1 percent.

If we win game 5, I'd say the Mavs' odds of winning the series are considerably better than 50%. More like 75%.

irishock · 06-08-2011, 07:07 PM

Whenever we take out Barea we make a run in the fourth quarter.

Nowitzness81 · 06-08-2011, 07:12 PM

Wow. This team depends on Kidd on the floor so much.

LonghornDub · 06-08-2011, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xrobx

right now i'd say i'm about 25 percent confident on our chances of winning the series, if we win tomorrow it shoots up to a 50 percent, basically a coin toss. if we lose tomorrow it'll dip to about 1 percent.

This is not a very objective assessment.

Dirkadirkastan · 06-08-2011, 07:24 PM

I'd say our odds are about 45% right now, but would jump up to 64% if we win Game 5. If we lose, I'd put us around 16%.

This is how I figure.

kingmalaki · 06-08-2011, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/nba...ory?id=6641556

ugh.

Part of me wants Stevenson to shut up... and the other part realizes that Stevenson outscored LeBron in game 4.

Well he talked ish about him before the last game and LeBron still wussed out, so why stop now?

GhostFace · 06-08-2011, 07:34 PM

Honestly, in the Mav's I trust. We will win game 5. Either we dominate or come from behind, either way we WILL win game 5. I have a feeling we are going to see the true Maverick form that we have witness throughout these playoffs thus far. It's going to be fucking electric. I can't wait because the Mav's are more hungry then ever and they ARE battle tested, ready and willing to strike at the enemys juggular.

Underdog · 06-08-2011, 07:44 PM

Screw odds, it's binary - win or lose.

Mavs win.

mavsjunkie · 06-08-2011, 07:49 PM

Speaking Xs & Os.

The reason these guys can't run away on us even with all of that talent is because of 2 things.

Dallas' defense is bad-ass. When we have Tyson/Dirk/Stevenson or Matrix/Dirk & Jet on the floor and play a trap man, Stevenson has the speed to get back in to position after doubling, the swing men leak out, then Tyson drops back to defend the basket.

Very few teams can deal with this situation.

And secondly, LeBron is not posting up.

If LeBron were to post up the whole game, with Wade top side in 3 point land slashing every time Lebron gets the ball, then keeping Bosh on the back side for a short jumper in case, it would be tough for us to stop.

But Lebron prefers to hang out at 3 point land and make his move from there. Having Tyson Chandler is God's gift to the maverics. He scares the crap out of most defenders, especially when Dirk drops back as well, you have a 7 footer and a 7'1 guy waiting for you, not to mention a scrappy Stevenson and Kidd waiting to swat your ball from behind.

The heat are in trouble if the Mavs stop missing easy shots.

Nowitzness81 · 06-08-2011, 07:50 PM

Do you think Dirk sneezed during any of his shots?

LonghornDub · 06-08-2011, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Screw odds, it's binary - win or lose.

Mavs win.

I don't agree at all with your first sentence, but I very much agree with the second one. Very, very much.

GermanDunk · 06-08-2011, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iella

Basically what you're saying is that you're more confident in the ability of the Heat to overcome a 2-3 series deficit than you are in the Mavs' ability. Not sure I agree with that, based on recent history.

True, but history says that the Heat often had an answer while we had to fight back. + it´s mostly Dirk who brings us back. Yesterday in the final minutes we clanked several in a row and turnovers an incapability under the boards kept us company all series long. So, i agree more with X.

fluid.forty.one · 06-08-2011, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

I'd say our odds are about 45% right now, but would jump up to 64% if we win Game 5. If we lose, I'd put us around 16%.

This is how I figure.

Is that our odds of winning the game tomorrow or the series?

Underdog · 06-08-2011, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I don't agree at all with your first sentence, but I very much agree with the second one. Very, very much.

If it makes you sleep any better, the Mavs odds of winning the series are 100%.

This is according to the Chuck Norris scale, so it's scientifically proven...

LonghornDub · 06-08-2011, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

If it makes you sleep any better, the Mavs odds of winning the series are 100%.

This is according to the Chuck Norris scale, so it's scientifically proven...

More than good enough for me.

Mavs 2011 NBA Champions. Bet the farm, folks. Bet the farm.

Nowitzness81 · 06-08-2011, 08:19 PM

Having way too much fun today.

purplefrog · 06-08-2011, 08:25 PM

Y'all just relax. Mavs win the next two. Series over. Heat locker room cries a river.

mavs777 · 06-08-2011, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

Is that our odds of winning the game tomorrow or the series?

series

LonghornDub · 06-08-2011, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplefrog

Y'all just relax. Mavs win the next two. Series over. Heat locker room cries a river.

http://www.bobanddan.com/contact/mar31/norm-mmhmm.mp3

Dirkadirkastan · 06-08-2011, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

Is that our odds of winning the game tomorrow or the series?

The series.

It's a simple calculation that assumes a 60% probability of victory for the home team in any game. The purpose is to quantify a team's relative advantage in a series, given the status of the series and the location of the remaining games.

Of course, you can invent your own similar metric with different percentages.

xrobx · 06-08-2011, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iella

Basically what you're saying is that you're more confident in the ability of the Heat to overcome a 2-3 series deficit than you are in the Mavs' ability. Not sure I agree with that, based on recent history.

a 2-3 series deficit is a lot easier to overcome when both games are at home. (see last year's nba finals) especially considering they've only lost one home game in the entire playoffs and are still yet to lose back to back games in the playoffs.. the heat are an extremely good home team. i won't even be comfortable up 3-2. they can easily win 2 at home. tomorrow is a must win, for sure. i wouldn't count us completely out, how can anyone after everything this team has done, but it would definitely take the mother of all miracles to get 6 and 7 on the road.

LonghornDub · 06-08-2011, 08:39 PM

Wade and James had a "late-night strategy session" at the hotel last night. Sounds pretty....you know, that word Grant Hill told us not to say.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...nbafinals-heat

purplefrog · 06-08-2011, 08:39 PM

Get a chuckle out of this one. Joe Cocker sings to the Heat locker room after game 6.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMwXPueu-RM

I realize there is a lot of heavy lifting to do.... I just think this Mavs team has the persistence and internal fortitude to get it done. I don't think the same of the Heat.

Thomas86 · 06-08-2011, 08:53 PM

I really hope everybody on the Mavs take this next game as if it's a Game 7 because it's that big.

Nowitzness81 · 06-08-2011, 08:55 PM

Lebron has decided IT'S TIME! LOOK OUT BITCHES!

NOW YOU WILL ALL PAY