Obama beats McCain in three swing states: poll - Page 16 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

Janett_Reno · 10-12-2008, 11:09 PM

Palin was a terrible pick. You know when a man starts out with hello my friends and later and towards the end of the same rally he says and my fellow prisoners, it makes you think, just how long would it take for his vice pres pick have to take over? Sarah Palin, give me a break. She is no Hillary Clinton. It is a huge gap here. Let her practice up some and bring her back in 2012. She didn't do anything for Big Mac and people will be scarred to pull the lever for Mac thinking she is next in line. As where Biden could run the country and Obama made a good choice and again Obama used his head. She did give him a boost at the convention reading what they told her to read and people thinking, who is this person? Maybe it is a new miracle republican. Soon the bubble burst. No contest with Obama/Biden - McCain/Palin. Ed Rollins sees the writtin' on the wall. 8 years of McSame is already enough. He won't get a chance at 4 more. Palin and the First Dude will be back in Alaska soon watching for Russians. McCain will be back with Libberman and we can move on with a new start finally with a differ direction we have had in the last 8 years.

Ed Rollins(Republican) Obama Headed For Landslide Win

Daring to utter the 'L' word: Obama on track to a landslide

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/53771.html

Maringa · 10-13-2008, 07:32 AM

Palin was a bad pick in that she overshadowed McCain and made him look old, without passion and tired. Biden was a great pick for Obama, a "yes sir" person and out of the main headlines...This became too much of a Palin/Obama race vs. McCain/Obama race.

Needless to say, things look good for Obama, but there are still three, long weeks before the election. Anything can happen between now an then...

Janett_Reno · 10-13-2008, 10:54 AM

I agree with you on this. Some polls today and i am not sure where and how this ND poll came out this way. ND is a big republican state and as many states as Clinton carried, he never won ND. I'm not putting much weight on this nd poll untill i see more but this is a good sign for Obama.

North Dakota 45% 43% Oct 06 Oct 08 Minnesota State U. Moorhead Obama
Nevada 47% 45% Oct 08 Oct 09 Mason-Dixon Obama

ND Poll

http://www.in-forum.com/articles/ind...5&section=news

Silk Smoov · 10-13-2008, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtownsfinest

Shake 'em off Obama. Shake 'em off.

Now, I know how to add that..Just wanted to do it too...LOL

Janett_Reno · 10-13-2008, 03:10 PM

McCain abandons plan for new tax cuts

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14508.html

All this is to me is a another day of the day and life of the flip flopping Big Mac party.

Bill Clinton stumps in Virginia

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14511.html

Missouri SurveyUSA Obama 51, McCain 43 Obama +8

Whoops, their goes MO, send Palin back to MO tomorrow, send Palin back to ND the next day, as Bill leaves VA and Obama jumps 8 in VA in the next day or two, then send Palin into VA at the end of the week. The democrats have got the republicans on the run and they aren't very good playing catch up.

The difference in a republican and a democrat, take a look at this independents and see who the big gov credit card money hungry borrowing spenders are. You decide......

National Debt When Jimmy Carter arrived at the White House was $660 billion.

Added during Carter's four years: $337 billion.

Added during Ronald Reagan's eight years: $1.6 trillion.

Added during George H. W. Bush's four years: $1.6 trillion.

Added during Bill Clinton's eight years: $1.5 trillion.

Added during George W. Bush's seven years, nine months: $4.5 trillion.

Portion of the $9.5 trillion added to the national debt during the past 31 years and seven months that came during Republican presidencies: $7.7 trillion.

Percentage of that $7.7 trillion added during George W. Bush's two terms: 58%

Lieberman going to bat for Coleman

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/...008-10-13.html

Come on democrats, let this guy stay in Crawford with Rams, W, Chains and McCains. Give him a case of Lonestar and let him have his walking papers. Let the republicans put him on the Palin pres ticket in 2012, Palin/Libberman. That has a nice ring to it. Sounds like the republican party is going with radicals or rejects and are all about the same to me.

Check this out, Palin went to Omaha, NE last week and a democrat has probably never won in that state. That state is maybe the redest state in the USA and she is going to NE. Now she is going to IN cause they can't even appeal to the republican base. That is getting bad. The democrats are on the offense and the republicans are playing defense.

Let's take a look at some of the senate races. Coleman/Franken are all over the place in polls and some show Franken out ahead but here goes.

1. Alaska: Rasmussen Reports: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich 48, indicted Republican Ted Stevens 46.

2. Colorado: Harstad Strategic Research (Udall internal poll): Democratic Congressman Mark Udall 45, Backwards Bob Schaffer 34. Like Oregon, an internal, but nonetheless heartening.

3. Oregon: Benenson Strategy Group (Merkley internal poll): Democratic Speaker Jeff Merkley 43, Republican Gordon Smith 41. While a Democratic internal poll, it's still heartening to see, especially when coupled with Survey USA seeing Republican Gordon Smith's approval numbers tank.

4. Minnesota: Survey USA: Republican Norm Coleman 41, Democrat Al Franken 40, Independent Dean Barkley 14. As SSP notes, Survey USA has long shown significant leads for Coleman, so this is a big statement of a poll.

5. New Jersey: Marist poll: Senator Frank Lautenberg enjoys a double-digit lead over Newt-Gingrich-bootlick Dick Zimmer, 47-36 among registered voters and 51-40 among likely voters with leaners. Senator Lautenberg also enjoys a nearly 2-to-1 60-33 lead among independents.

6. Iowa: Des Moines Register: Senator Tom Harkin 53, Republican Christopher Reed 34.

7. New Mexico: Rasmussen Reports: Democratic Congressman Tom Udall 51, far-right-wing Republican Steve Pearce 44.

8. North Carolina: Public Policy Polling: Bush-rubber-stamp Elizabeth Dole 42, Kay Hagan 43

9. North Carolina: Garin-Hart-Yang: Bush-rubber-stamp Elizabeth Dole 48, Kay Hagan 46

10. North Carolina: Research 2000: Bush-rubber-stamp Elizabeth Dole 48, Kay Hagan 42

11. Mississippi: Research 2000: Ethically questionable Roger Wicker 48, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove 43

12. Maine: Research 2000: Republican Susan Collins still holds a significant lead over Democratic Congressman Tom Allen, 57-38. Congressman Allen still isn't doing enough to trumpet Collins' allegiance to right-wing Republicans and the Bush-Cheney administration.

13. Idaho: Rasmussen Reports: Jim Risch leading former Congressman Larry LaRocco 58-30.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Back to Pres...

Toss Ups
----------
Florida (27)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (11)
Nevada (5)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (20)

Lean McCain
---------------
Georgia (15)
Montana (3)
West Virginia (5)

Lean Obama
----------------
Colorado (9)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Pennsylvania (21)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

Fire the Campaign By William Kristol

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/op...on&oref=slogin

The McCain campaign, once merely problematic, is now close to being out-and-out dysfunctional.

What McCain needs to do is junk the whole thing and start over.

And let McCain go back to what he’s been good at in the past — running as a cheerful, open and accessible candidate. Palin should follow suit. The two of them are attractive and competent politicians. They’re happy warriors and good campaigners. Set them free.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Haha, this guy should be a comedian. Happy and cheerful? What Big Mac use to be good at? Hey Kristol, Big Mac hadn't never been happy and cheerful. What he use to do Kristol, hey Bill he use to not be about 90 years old either and he use to not be a member of the neocons but when you can't skake ole Rummy, AssCroft, Chains and Weasel sometimes you have to join them to save your job. He is only a puppet on a string now and just a matter of time, sooner than later, he will be down in Crawford talking about the good ole days, if Chains and Rummy let him stay or they might kick him back off to AZ.

dysfunctional, well if you call my fellow prisoners dysfunctional, or come up with new bail outs and tax plans one day and then say the next day, hmmmm bad idea, let's scrap that and think of something else dysfunctional or you can call if flip flop or you can call it radical ideas of the last 8 years and it all equals dysfunctional.

The two of them are attractive and competent politicians. Kristol, what do you find attractive about Big Mac and Baracuda? Competent, now come on my fellow friends, Joe 6 pack hockey moms. I forgot, i think Big Mac did say Baracuda was once in the pta at school and this is alot like foreign policy. She would never be happy and cheerful because she couldn't get her mooseburgers every morning.

Kristol, you mention just start over. Did you ever think it is 3 weeks before the election and anyway you flip a Big Mac it turns out to be a Big Mac. You don't change him to a republican in 3 weeks and you don't turn Baracuda into Hillary in 3 weeks. Sometimes people like McSame and Libberman just don't know where to fit in. As far as Palin, you let Big Mac pick and he grabs Libberman or you do what he did and let Rove puppet him and choose Palin. See the dysfunctional Kristol? Neither way works. It all started when you got Big Mac and you finished it when Rove chose Palin for him.

Happy warriors? When is the last time you have seen a Maverick or Baracuda happy? Hey Kristol, go back on Fox News and talk to people that you can make sense to. Is this sort of like a happy and cheerful Bill O'Relly?

rabbitproof · 10-13-2008, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silk Smoov

Now, I know how to add that..Just wanted to do it too...LOL

http://es.youtube.com/watch?v=AU2pilDX7-0

dude1394 · 10-13-2008, 07:52 PM

I have almost as much respect for Kristol as I do for the messiah. They both are way to busy saving their asses instead of sticking with something that's a hard slog.

The Iron Lady would have slapped kristols ass and for good reason.

Epitome22 · 10-14-2008, 09:07 AM

It's looking like America is all riding the O train this November. The question now is how many GOP bums in Congress are the American People gonna toss out?

Janett_Reno · 10-14-2008, 11:07 AM

McCain is trying today to offer new plans to see if it will help close the gap. Then the debate tomorrow night. It was mentioned that the republicans are thinking about borrowing money to really fight back to hold a few very key house and senate seats that are very close that wasn't really suppose to be. Look down at the bottom and you can see where the republicans are going to borrow money to fight and try to hold those 3 states. The Democrats want 60 without Joe Lieberman McCain. First of all i will say this, Or and Nc isn't easy and the dems can't take their eye off the ball and must keep on and take these two. It's time for Lizzy to retire with Maverick anyway. Then, Coleman has made some very bad boo boos and guess who is up in MN trying to help him? Joe Lieberman. The people are turning on Coleman lately on some gifts he can't answer where they came from. His people keep saying everything was legit. I don't think it is a big Ted Stevens deal but on a small scale and Al Franken is comming on. The Democrats need to help Franken and put Coleman out. The republicans are going to fight untill the last vote in GA, MS and KY. Those are huge strong hold republican senate seats.

If the Democrats can make them spend money in KY, it keeps bleeding the reps out of money to defend. I am the first to admit, those 3 seats will be very hard to take but also remember what i have said for a long time. The word "unlikely". Now Fox News is very upset because they have found out about the word. Let me explain "unlikely". The dems have been out registering people to vote after the Gore loss but they pushed after the Kerry loss. Alot in FL and OH. The reps made a play on the state of LA and trying to make it more red. During Hillary/Obama new voters came out and more registered. In red states but dems in red states. VA, NC, GA, MI, CO, NV, MO. Now where ND and WV came in i am not sure. They say WV is getting alot of Obama commercials from VA and surrounding states they are seeing. Some of this has happened in IN also. When the "unlikely" vote comes out, it is young, minorities, protest against last 8 years. I saw this way before it was ever mentioned. It was votes like never before in Obama/Hillary and the reps was not getting a fraction of the amount of votes by numbers like the dems. Sometimes you can add up Macs, Roms, Hucks, Freds and they wouldn't equal Hillary or Obama.

Yes Fox News is going to cry and blame acorn and they will never admit Bush/Cheney did anything wrong and that Big Mac ran a great race. They will try to spin that Barney Frank was what was wrong in the last 8 years but the people see past this. The games are over. Reps or alot of reps have switched parties, many reps don't trust a rep anymore, some right wingers are not happy with a Lieberman McCain and the fact is it is alot of people that have registered to vote that is going to vote. Fox News isn't going to stop them from votting. If Mickey Mouse comes to vote and when Mickey gets checked, then Mickey will get put in jail. No need to worry. Then anyone that signs up fraud voters is also at risk of going to jail. So "unlikely" is comming and they are comming in big numbers and this is why guys like Chambliss could be in trouble. You might ask why? It is because "unlikely" will probably come out in huge numbers for Obama and GA is one state it is alot of young and new voters. If they are upset with the last 8 years, they will probably pull a straight dem lever in the votting booth and this leaves Chambliss out. Voter turn out is killing the reps. You can thank W and Cheney for this. Alot of reps that retired knew this and some didn't seek re election as they saw this comming. This is why GA, MS and KY is in play and was never suppose to be. It is also why Lizzy is getting kicked to the curb. What i am proud of is alot of republicans is even admitting, Mac needs to tell his plan and stop the attacks like Ed Rollins speaks of. Obama keeps on rolling with his message. People that advise Big mac have him attacking one day and the next talking of something else and the the next back attacking and he flips and flops around like a fish out of water. It's to late now, you don't change with 3 weeks to go. Obama did not beat Hillary with luck and he is taken it to the republicans and they can't defend. Obama has a team that is really good. I am very amazed and Obama is very good.

I will tell you why it will be very bad on the republicans if Mac doesn't close this gap some, if the dems have this money to throw at McConnell, Chambliss, Wicker and even possibly Cornyn or L Graham, then the dems could go all out on some of the biggest wigs in the rep party in the last week or two. What if one or two of the biggest wigs in politics got knocked off? As long as Bill, Hillary, Biden, Obama and even others out for Obama are out helping, it could really free some big time money to go after 60 and to get 60 it will take a big name or two to get beat in the rep party. It is shapping up good for the moment for the dems to try this.

Poll: Obama leads in 3 of 4 key Bush counties

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/14556

But these four counties are crucial battlegrounds in four of the most competitive states in the presidential race. In recent years, the Republican path to the White House has run through these areas.

Polls Today
---------------
Florida 51% 46% Oct 12 Oct 12 Rasmussen Obama

Georgia 43% 51% Oct 11 Oct 12 SurveyUSA McCain

Missouri 50% 47% Oct 12 Oct 12 Rasmussen Obama

Missouri 51% 43% Oct 11 Oct 12 SurveyUSA Obama

North Carolina 48% 48% Oct 12 Oct 12 Rasmussen Tie

Ohio 49% 45% Oct 05 Oct 08 Marist Coll. Obama

Ohio 49% 47% Oct 12 Oct 12 Rasmussen Obama

Pennsylvania 51% 38% Oct 08 Oct 12 Muhlenberg Coll. Obama

Pennsylvania 53% 41% Oct 05 Oct 08 Marist Coll. Obama

Virginia 50% 47% Oct 12 Oct 12 Rasmussen Obama

Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Obama 55, McCain 40 Obama +15

Michigan Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 54, McCain 38 Obama +16

Colorado Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9

Minnesota Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 51, McCain 40 Obama +11

Wisconsin Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 54, McCain 37 Obama +17

Senate
---------

Georgia Jim Martin 43% Saxby Chambliss* 46% Oct 11 Oct 12 SurveyUSA

Oregon Jeff Merkley 46% Gordon Smith* 41% Oct 11 Oct 12 SurveyUSA

Minnesota Senate Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Coleman 36, Franken 38, Barkley 18 Franken +2

Colorado Senate Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Udall 54, Schaffer 40 Udall +14

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

The Democrats appear to have nearly as much momentum in the race for Capitol Hill as they do for the White House, and now have approximately a 3 in 10 chance of winding up with a 60-seat working majority in the Senate.

Noteworthy movement since our previous update includes Minnesota, which our model is finally giving to Al Franken after Rasmussen and Quinnipiac polls put him slightly ahead; North Carolina, where Kay Hagan is hardly out of the woods but now clearly appears to be favored, and Georgia, where one poll now shows a literal tie between Jim Martin and incumbent Saxby Chambliss, and several others have the race within the margin of error. Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Udall also appear to be solidifying their positions in New Hampshire and Colorado, respectively.

The Democrats are now favored to take over eight seats from the Republicans: Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, Oregon, and Minnesota. If the Democrats win all eight of those races, they will only need one more to achieve 60 seats, and they have good opportunities in Georgia, Mississippi and Kentucky.

The good news for the Republicans is that they have the financial advantage in most of these races, as the Democratic rank-and-file scrambles to put together a budget for candidates like Jim Martin in Georgia. But, all the money in the world won't help you if you don't have an attractive message to sell, and right now the Republicans' pleas for mercy are falling on deaf ears.

-----------------------------------------------------

Silk Smoov · 10-14-2008, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabbitproof

http://es.youtube.com/watch?v=AU2pilDX7-0

Hey! Did you see this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R2pOZuBd_U

Janett_Reno · 10-14-2008, 12:14 PM

One of Hollywood's few Republicans has switched his vote. Dennis Hopper, 72, told reporters in France that he's praying for an Obama victory, despite decades as a Bush supporter.

"I voted for Bush, father and son, but this time I'll vote for Obama," he told journalists at the opening of a show on his life and work.

"I was the first person in my family to have been Republican," he added. "For most of my life I wasn't on the left."

"I pray God, Barack Obama is elected," he said, calling the current administration's many "lies."

Hopper stars in "An American Carol," a conservative comedy that spoofed Michael Moore and last donated money, in 2004, the RNC.

French Culture minister Christine Albanel also named Dennis Hopper as Commander of the 'Ordre des Arts et des Lettres' medal on Monday night.

Janett_Reno · 10-14-2008, 12:25 PM

RNC eyes $5M bailout for GOP senators

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14549.html

The Republican National Committee, growing nervous over the prospect of Democrats’ winning a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, is considering tapping into a $5 million line of credit this week to aid an increasing number of vulnerable incumbents, top Republicans say.

With party strategists fearing a bloodbath at the polls, GOP officials are shifting to triage mode, determining who can be saved and where to best spend their money.

And with the House and Senate Republican campaign committees being drastically outspent by their Democratic counterparts, and outside groups such as Freedom’s Watch offering far less help than was once anticipated, Republicans are turning to the national party committee as a lender of last resort.

A decision is imminent because television time must be reserved and paid for upfront, and available slots are dwindling.

A representative for the RNC would neither confirm nor deny that it was considering the move.

The RNC and National Republican Senatorial Committee are legally prohibited from discussing an “independent expenditure” campaign by the RNC for Senate races, including the content of the ads or where they run. Independent expenditure campaigns are run by a separate unit within the national committee, one “walled off” from the rest of the organization. But RNC strategists can deduce from the NRSC buys, as well as public polling, where their help is needed.

NRSC officials did not directly address the issue of an RNC-funded ad campaign for Senate races, but they said they had worked closely with their RNC counterparts throughout the cycle.

Both the NRSC and DSCC are allowed to spend limited funds directly on Senate races, but spend the bulk of their money on their own TV ad efforts in targeted states. During this cycle, the NRSC has spent heavily in Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Mississippi, among other states.

GOP sources emphasized they would not be diverting money from John McCain, who they promised would continue to enjoy a steady stream of ads from the party’s independent expenditure arm. The party raised a record $66 million last month, and McCain is increasingly relying on RNC funds. “We’re not giving up on McCain,” said a top GOP source. “We’re still going to do everything we can there because his margin and what he does affects these races.” A senior Republican said: “We’re much better off having a competitive presidential ticket.”

But that the party would use new money to block a Democratic triumph in the Senate rather than boost the odds of its presidential nominee speaks volumes about what many Republicans think is still salvageable. And some in the GOP, especially those working on House and Senate races in which their candidates’ poll numbers swoon during the financial crisis, are increasingly agitated about money being spent on what all observers, including McCain, acknowledge is an uphill fight on top of the ticket.

“They should pull the money from *McCain like [former RNC Chairman] Haley Barbour did in ’96, when Dole slid away, and funnel it to save some Senate and House seats as best they can,” said one longtime GOP strategist who is working on congressional races.

The RNC tried a similar “firewall” strategy late in the 2005-2006 election cycle, hoping to save GOP Senate seats in Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee. The RNC dumped millions of dollars into that effort only to see Democrats take two out of the three seats on their way to winning control of the Senate.

The RNC has also been running TV ads in several House districts, according to GOP and Democratic sources. Incumbents in both chambers who were previously seen as safe are now perceived as slipping away. But to ensure at least one bulwark against total Democratic control, GOP officials are more inclined to focus their resources on the Senate.

“There are seven or eight [seats in danger],” a top Republican said of the upper chamber. “What’s it going to be a week from now?” Party officials see GOP Senate seats at risk in North Carolina, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Mississippi, Alaska, Oregon and Georgia.

The financial situation for Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) has gotten so precarious that she has announced she will be spending her own money on the campaign. Democratic third-party groups have spent millions attacking her as an ineffective senator, and her poll numbers have cratered.

According a source familiar with this week’s ad buys, the DSCC is outspending the NRSC by just under $30 million in targeted states. The committee has been using an e-mail appeal for a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority to raise money, relying on such Democratic Party figures as former President Bill Clinton and Sens. Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Barbara Boxer.

But the Obama-Biden campaign has refused to provide millions of dollars in help to the DSCC, turning down a direct appeal by Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and arguing that it needs the money itself to beat McCain.

Janett_Reno · 10-14-2008, 12:39 PM

Who's in control of McCain's campaign?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14555.html

Conservatives: McCain alienating base on economy

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/con...008-10-13.html

Voter Registration in North Carolina
The state of North Carolina maintains particularly good voter registration statistics. With their registration deadline having closed last week, let's take a quick look at the numbers.

Since the first of the year, Democrats have added about 250,000 voters to the Republicans' roughly 50,000, while unaffiliated voters also increased their numbers by about 170,000. What was a 10.6 point party ID gap at the start of the year is now 13.0 points. About half that gain came between the first of the year and the state's May primary, and the other half came between the primary and last week's deadline.

There is fairly close to a 1:1 correspondence between the party ID gap and the Obama-McCain gap, so these new registrations alone account for about one point's worth of the gains that Obama has made in North Carolina since the summer.

Meanwhile, about 150,000 black voters -- and 35,000 "other" voters -- have been added to the rolls since the start of the year. That compares with about 235,000 white voters.

Assuming that Obama captures 35 percent of white voters, 95 percent of black voters, and 60 percent of "other" voters, the change in the racial composition of the electorate since the first of the year is worth a net of about 1.5 points to Obama in his race against McCain.

Also, some really good data mining on voter registration from Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University. Nearly half of newly-registered voters in Ohio are aged 18-29.

Murphy3 · 10-14-2008, 12:42 PM

I'm glad that I could care less about what anyone from Hollywood thinks about politics.

Janett_Reno · 10-14-2008, 01:56 PM

More in depth of some of the senate races that

Janett_Reno · 10-14-2008, 02:10 PM

Are getting close. Election night, these are going to be fun to keep up with.

Minnesota Senate (New: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Republican)

The Minnesota contest features idiosyncratic nominees in both major parties. Republican incumbent Coleman is a former Democrat who in 2002 very narrowly defeated former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, who stepped in as a replacement after two-term Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone, a liberal icon, died in a plane crash just days before the election. Democratic challenger Franken, a well-known comic, is a longtime liberal activist making his first bid for public office. Throw in an unusually strong third contender in Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley — briefly an appointed senator following Wellstone’s death in 2002 — and all the ingredients for an unpredictable race were in place.

Even so, the trajectory of the race has had an unusual number of zigs and zags. Franken, a former Saturday Night Live writer/performer and former Air America radio host, nearly saw his campaign implode this summer when critics raised questions about some of his racier writings during his career as a satirist. He also faced some bad publicity about back taxes.

But Coleman also has faced flak over allegations that he got a sweetheart rental deal from a lobbyist for his Washington, D.C., residence, and more recently over whether he had received and failed to report gifts of expensive clothing.

Yet the precipitating event in Coleman’s recent slip in polls appears to be his vote in support of the controversial financial industry “bailout” legislation last week. A Rasmussen poll released Thursday found that Franken led Coleman 43 percent to 37 percent while Barkley took 17 percent. A recent poll by Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute at University of Minnesota showed Franken leading Coleman 41 percent to 37 percent, while Barkley got 14 percent.

Third-party candidates often siphon anti-incumbent votes from challengers. But in this race, Barkley is gaining support from both parties because of the unpopularity of Coleman’s vote on the bailout measure, said Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. “Republicans are revolting against Coleman,” he said.

Jacobs said that Barkley’s performance in polling also indicates voters from both parties are looking for alternatives. “It reflects both the high unfavorables for both Coleman and Franken and the defections of both independents and Democrats and Republicans from their headliners,” he said.

Kentucky Senate (New Rating: Leans Republican. Previous Rating: Republican Favored)

CQ Politics still gives Kentucky Republican McConnell the edge in his quest for a fifth Senate term, though his race now appears to be highly competitive rather than mildly competitive.

Three surveys released in the past week or so show a tightening race between McConnell and Democrat Bruce Lunsford, a wealthy businessman and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Kentucky governor. A Rasmussen Reports survey on Sept. 30 had McConnell ahead by 51 percent to 42 percent over Lunsford, who founded a chain of nursing homes. Other recent surveys by the Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA firms showed McConnell’s lead down in the low single digits.

Lunsford’s use of his personal wealth in this campaign has helped him stay more competitive with the well-funded McConnell than he otherwise might be. Lunsford also is getting a boost from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the cash-rich political arm of Senate Democrats that on Wednesday began airing an anti-McConnell television ad.

McConnell says that the clout he wields as Senate Republican leader is helpful to Kentucky, and he says that Lunsford — who is about six years younger than the 66-year-old McConnell — couldn’t possibly serve long enough to amass similar pull in the Senate, where the incumbent has served since he was 42. But the strong public disapproval of Congress and the poor image of the Republican Party in general are major obstacles for McConnell to surmount, as he tries to fend off efforts by Lunsford and Democrats in general to brand him as blocking legislation important to average Americans.

Georgia Senate (New Rating: Leans Republican. Previous Rating: Republican Favored)

Chambliss, in his 2002 Senate challenge, ran ads about the issue of homeland security that appeared to raise questions about Democratic incumbent Cleland’s patriotism and willingness to defend the country. This drew strong blowback from Democrats who took issue with this characterization of Cleland, a Vietnam War veteran who lost both legs and an arm while serving in that conflict. Chambliss nonetheless bested Cleland by nearly 7 percentage points — a win that was crucial to the narrow Senate majority the GOP claimed in that election year, leaving Democrats even angrier.

Despite the party’s eagerness to challenge Chambliss in 2008, Democrats at first struggled to recruit a challenger for the seat. Party leaders settled on former state Rep. Jim Martin, who ran a competitive but unsuccessful race for lieutenant governor in 2006. But Martin failed to clear the Democratic field for this year’s Senate primary and drew competitive opponents who forced him to expend funds and effort before finally claiming the nomination in a runoff.

As the incumbent of a conservative state who drew no primary opposition, Chambliss was pegged early on as a clear favorite in the race. Georgia supported Bush for president in 2004 with 58 percent of the vote to 41 percent for Democrat John Kerry .

But Chambliss’ lead in polls has slipped significantly in recent weeks. Political scientist Charles S. Bullock III at the University of Georgia believes Chambliss’ vote for the financial industry “bailout” plan last week contributed to his recent plunge. Chambliss voted for the measure with Johnny Isakson , the state’s other Republican senator, but all seven Republicans in the state’s House delegation voted against the legislation.

Bullock also noted that Barack Obama ’s presidential campaign has inspired a big increase in Democratic voter registration in the state, including among African-Americans, who threaten to complicate Chambliss’ hold on the seat.

Another wild card is the candidacy of Bob Barr, a former U.S. House member from Georgia, as the Libertarian Party’s nominee for president. His presence on the ballot holds the potential to boost the candidacy of Allen Buckley, who could draw some votes from Chambliss as the Libertarian Senate nominee.

In addition, Bullock said Martin’s television ads have been more prominent than Chambliss’ and may contribute to the challenger’s recent bump in the polls.

The fact that the race is closer than expected may have been unintentionally underscored Wednesday by Chambliss’ campaign, which touted a recent Rasmussen poll that showed the incumbent ahead of Martin 50 to 44 percent — a lead, but hardly an overwhelming one.

Virginia (New Rating: Safe Democratic. Previous Rating: Democrat Favored)

Everything that could go wrong for Republicans has gone wrong in the race to succeed retiring five-term Sen. John W. Warner , a highly popular Republican elder statesman. Republican nominee Gilmore, who was Virginia’s governor from 1998 through 2001, is simply overmatched against Democrat Mark Warner, Gilmore’s well-regarded successor as governor, who is no relation to the departing incumbent.

On a wide array of political criteria — fundraising, candidate quality, voter registration, the political environment, voter registration and voter enthusiasm — Warner and the Democrats have the substantial edge.

CQ Politics never considered this race highly competitive, but kept it in the mildly competitive Democrat Favored category to hold open the slim possibility that Gilmore might be able to close the gap, because of his past prominence and because of Virginia’s long-standing Republican lean in presidential elections. But a decade-long Democratic trend in Virginia is highlighted by the fact that some polls show Obama pulling ahead of McCain in a state where Republicans hold a 10-election presidential winning streak. The most recent independent poll in the Senate race had Warner leading Gilmore by 30 points.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alaska: Begich 49, Stevens 45. (Ivan Moore)
North Carolina: Hagan 49, Dole 44. (Rasmussen)

Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, seeking a third term, opened a 54 percent to 41 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in a Rasmussen Reports pollconducted Sept. 25. Two percent chose "other" and 3 percent were undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In June, Rasmussen had these two within the margin of error is each other with Landrieu leading by 3 points. Landrieu's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 61 percent to 36 percent and Kennedy's are 50 percent to 39 percent. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."

Mississippi: Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, is statistically-tied with former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, leading him 49 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Wicker's favorable to unfavorably numbers are 59 percent to 36 percent compared to 51 percent to 44 percent for Musgrove. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had Wicker ahead 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, was way out in front in his race against former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent in Rasmussen's June poll. CQ Politics rates Cochran's race "Safe Republican" and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as "No Clear Favorite."

Epitome22 · 10-14-2008, 04:42 PM

I don't think they'll get 60 seats in the senate. They'll get 57-58 maybe but not enough to stop the inevitable filibuster their likeminded compatriots used in the 40's, 50's & 60's.

Al Franken is a joke of a candidate which will make it all the funnier if he actually beats Norm Coleman. The best thing is Sununu losing in New Hampshire. When New Hampshire officislly turns blue, Northeastern Republicans will be akin to the Dodo bird.

GuerillaBlack · 10-14-2008, 07:24 PM

Obama: 357
McCain: 181

http://electoral-vote.com/

GuerillaBlack · 10-14-2008, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silk Smoov

Now, I know how to add that..Just wanted to do it too...LOL

Damn signature stealer.

At least it's Obama.

Janett_Reno · 10-14-2008, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Epitome22

I don't think they'll get 60 seats in the senate. They'll get 57-58 maybe but not enough to stop the inevitable filibuster their likeminded compatriots used in the 40's, 50's & 60's.

Al Franken is a joke of a candidate which will make it all the funnier if he actually beats Norm Coleman. The best thing is Sununu losing in New Hampshire. When New Hampshire officislly turns blue, Northeastern Republicans will be akin to the Dodo bird.

I think you are right and do you think Chambliss could fall? That would be something if he did and i am guessing McConnell is pretty safe. The MS race is close and if people really come to the polls what an upset any of those 3 could be. It seems that the senate republicans that thought maybe they was safe and voted for the bail out bill, that maybe some republicans are upset at that bill and them voting on it. I am speaking of rep voters. I feel Franken has got a real shot taken MN and i agree would be a joke and funny. Sununu looks like he is beat. The dems wanted ME also but Allen i think her name is looks as if she will win for the reps in ME.

It would have been nice if it would have dipped down to Lidsay Graham, Cornyn, Chambliss and McConell. I mean if it got some of them, it would take some heavy hitters off. Out of those, it looks like Chambliss is on the list of possible.

Silk Smoov · 10-14-2008, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GuerillaBlack

Damn signature stealer.

At least it's Obama.

You right, I did. I owe you on that one.

Janett_Reno · 10-15-2008, 12:22 PM

Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...voters-in.html

SurveyUSA has a lot of good habits as a pollster, and one of them is breaking out the results of early and absentee voting in states where such things are allowed. So far, SurveyUSA has conducted polling in five states where some form of early voting was underway. In each one, Barack Obama is doing profoundly better among early voters than among the state's electorate as a whole:

Florida InAdv/PollPosition Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
North Carolina InAdv/PollPosition Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Nevada InAdv/PollPosition Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
West Virginia InAdv/PollPosition McCain 49, Obama 47 McCain +2
New Mexico SurveyUSA Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
Colorado 47% 43% Oct 10 Oct 13 Suffolk U. Obama
Colorado 52% 43% Oct 08 Oct 12 Quinnipiac U Obama
Michigan 54% 38% Oct 08 Oct 12 Quinnipiac U Obama
Minnesota 51% 40% Oct 08 Oct 12 Quinnipiac U Obama
Ohio 50% 45% Oct 12 Oct 13 SurveyUSA Obama
Pennsylvania 55% 40% Oct 11 Oct 13 SurveyUSA Obama
Wisconsin 54% 37% Oct 08 Oct 12 Quinnipiac U Obama

Janett_Reno · 10-15-2008, 04:16 PM

It looks like as the dems go around and everything is close in fl, co, nv, oh, wv, mo, nc and then the reps follow back thru trying to get the numbers to swing back towards big mac, it is one state the dems are pushing. They are really spending money in the state and it is bleeding over into nc and wv with the tv ads and yes big mac and palin come in and bring the numbers down some, Obama and the dems are taking the lead out more each time. The state is VA.

When you see all the northeast results come in first and it moves down into PA and VA, watch VA. If this state falls on election night, the race is over. This means if Mac sweeps thru FL, Mo, Oh and alot of the others. I don't think Mac will win alot of the others and especially FL but VA is the first big test and right now Obama has the reps on the run and they can or haven't ben able to keep up with money, man power, advertising, reps helping him like dems helping Obama in VA. What a night VA can have on election night, Warner winning the senate seat and VA taking Obama over the top early. Do not get me wrong, all states are important and even Dick Morris predicted some big red states would fall like TN and maybe GA and as far as i have seen in TN, it is big red. Maybe Morris sees something on his Fox watch we don't but as he dems work these other states and keeps Palin/Mac running back to defend, the dems are pounding VA and i feel this is good strat, to put it away early in the night.

Both dems and reps are asking Mac and Obama money for big time senate races and both parties are saying, we need it for the pres. I wish the dems would put more in GA and bump Chambliss out. The man needs to join W and the Boyz down in Crawford and sip on some Billy Beer with W and Rummy.

Not sure how accurate this is but it is a beautiful site to see. VA-Pres Oct 15 CNN Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 43%.

CO-Pres Oct 15 CNN Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

FL-Pres Oct 15 CNN Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 46%

GA-Pres Oct 15 CNN McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 45%

MO-Pres Oct 15 CNN McCain (R) 49%, Obama (D) 48%

Congress Oct 15 Res. 2000 Democrats 50%, Republicans 35%

Janett_Reno · 10-15-2008, 05:04 PM

RNC out of Wisconsin, Maine; focuses on red states

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081015/...r/campaign_ads

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

The reps know what i am saying and even admit about VA. If they do not take a blue state, then they must sweep almost all the swing states and some red states in trouble but it says they are still trying PA and staying there. I think this is a fake as they want the dems to spend more in PA and stay out of the swing and red states more as they dig back in.

So now, Big Mac and the reps can kiss WI, MI, MN, and even PA goodbye. If it gets to bad on the end and the lead doesn't shrink and if Obama keeps pulling away, the reps will take the money and pour into some senate and house races trying to save guys like McConnell, Chambliss, Wicker, Cornyn, Graham and maybe even try to save Lizzy and Coleman.

McCain's task: Break Obama's discipline

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/200...litico/14603_1

This is what Palin or Big Mac can't do. Hillary couldn't do it and Hillary is 4 times better than Big Mac and about 10 times better than Baracuda.

Janett_Reno · 10-15-2008, 11:29 PM

Well my friends, so sad. Big Mac is a shell of anything he ever was. Big Mac threw caution to the wind all night as they must have told him to attack. Here is the problem, first Big Mac isn't one to debate, second he blows up, and to make matters worse, he is trying to debate someone only Bill Clinton could debate and then it would be close. Obama is that good. Everytime Big Mac tries to attack, Obama turns the table on him and makes Mac look bad. It got so bad that Mac was blowing like a bull in the mic as Obama spoke.

Remember when Gore would blow, grunt and make noises as Bush spit out a few lines and Gore was itching to attack back? This was Big Mac and the Mac attack can't defend his policy and it is almost like it's no policy. Like we stand somewhere between Bill O'Reilly, W and Joe Lieberman. That's my policy and i am Big Mac and approve that message.

It's sad to see Big Mac go out like that as he is a shell of anything he use to be. It is going to take some soul searching, a leader to ever repair the republican party when and if they get all the neocons out. You know, Obama has so much class as he got Big Mac told on issues and never even brought the Keaton 5 and didn't have to trash him. He actually let Mac trash himself.

Something else and this is why a republican will have to come along and change their course because they use to scream tax, abortion, gays, terrorist are comming, judges, less gov more open and less restricted business with gov staying out of business, nra and guns. Now look what they talk about? Nothing really. Mac starts blowing like a brama bull when he ever does mention tax and then Obama starts in who will get a better tax break and lays it out. Big mac and republicans have nothing to attack. Remember how they say they are for no big spending? Then look at credit card W and an open bank account to china. See the dead end again in the republican party? You never hear the word faith and values, morals or whatever happened to that word "compassionate conservatism"? What about trickle down economics?

You know it is getting where they can't even spin their on republican base. Guess what? No contest tonight, Mac was a flop. When they asked why would your vp make a good pres, i figured Big mac would say, she once was in pta and she is sort of hot. What could he talk about with her? It's a dead end street. Obama was nice and said she helped rally her base and party. So see again, Obama took and did what Mac was trying to do to him and Obama spun him like a top and made him upset. He even did it with kindness alot of times. This guy is smooth and doesn't hide, he speaks.

I haven't listed all the names in the republican party that is very upset with Macs staff, with Mac and many have left the party because of Palin. I am not sure for this election or forever. Mac is way past his prime, when Mac sold out to the cons, he really doesn't know what to say or what policy to follow and alot of it is now he is a puppet and i will admit, he is not a spring chicken anymore.

Thank god these debates are over as it was like a high school team playing a professional team. Big Mac tried to get Obama to stop on the last 8 years and he wouldn't stop and the more he did, the more Mac would blow and snort. A word to the wise, Big Mac you stand for what you believe in and when someone like W or the cons tell you, do like us or you are out, take a stand for your beliefs. Do this for yourself. When you sell out, then you are part of the cons and you play ball like they tell you to and when they pull a string, you do as they tell you.

For months i have heard my friends over 1,000 times, i have heard i can fix it all my friends because i am the Maverick and Joe 6 pack hockey mom Baracuda is by my side. That got old and tonight he flip flopped again and you heard my friends once, no baracuda, no joe 6 pack hockey mom talk. They finally tell him to change his speech with 3 weeks to go.

It wouldn't have been any better with Rudy toot, Fred would have blowed up and maybe fell asleep, Ron Paul would have made it interesting and no he probably wouldn't have won but atleast he won't sell out to the cons and would speak, Romney was the only hope they had and no he wouldn't have beat Obama either but with Roms and a good vp pick who knows or maybe closer. Palin? Come on.

I think the polls will go south more for Maverick and Baracuda.

Janett_Reno · 10-15-2008, 11:56 PM

More i should mention, when democrats beat the republicans on the word "taxes", they do not know what to do because they are programmed or atleast Mac/Palin is and W was also. Something else funny, Big Mac cried and spewed off all night, he has more money than me, no fair. We are the republicans and we are suppose to outspend the dems in elections, so this is unfair and let's start again.

Obama was so right when he talked of you don't borrow money and put your worth on China. Borrow from China and that borrowed money, give it to Saudi and even Iraq. Strip the tax payers money and sell them out to China and Saudi. See why republicans can't talk about morals? For people that think breaking your banks and your gov is funny and a joke, let me tell you something else Obama hit on and he is right. Great nations and strong nations can't survive with a supreme military if they are busted financially. Look what happened to Russia trying to live on borrowed money.

The big picture, we had to get someone with some sense in the white house that is responsible, that invest in the American people. What have i been saying the last so many months about invest in us, not China, not Saudi, not Iraq. Neocons think money grows on trees, you borrow and live off credit cards and let China fund you as you give your wealth to someone that doesn't like you. Saudi. Please Mr Al Gore would you please go around the country and school the neocons more and teach them what credit cards and countries that don't like you, what the dangers are. I must say Obama is doing a good job where Gore left off. Joe Biden will also.

I knew 4 years of W was bad but after he won for the last 4, this was terrible and he threw us in the dumps. One republican on last night(William F Buckley's son), on Chris Mathews said he knows James Buchanan must be happy because he no longer holds the worst president ever title. The wave of republicans trying to escape their party is probably not over.

I have faith and as bad as maybe i sound and how bad it's been, the American people will be back on top again, we will be liked and looked up to again and we will build our wealth and jobs once again but we had to put a democrat in office to clean up everything republicans tore down. Great job Obama and keep up the great work. You did an excellent job and please hurry up and get in the white house.

Janett_Reno · 10-17-2008, 07:15 PM

Senator
--------------

AK-SEN Oct 17 Res. 2000 Begich (D) 48%, Stevens (R) 46%

Georgia Research 2000 Chambliss 47, Martin 45 Chambliss +2

Mississippi - Special Research 2000 Wicker 47, Musgrove 46 Wicker +1

Texas Research 2000 Cornyn 50, Noriega 44 Cornyn +6

MINNESOTA (Quinnipiac Univ.): Humorist Al Franken (D) - 39%, US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 37%, former US Senator Dean Barkley (IP) - 17%

SOUTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): US Senator Lindsey Graham (R) - 56%, commercial pilot Bob Conley (D) - 40%

NORTH CAROLINA (WSOC-TV): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 44%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 43%, Others - 4%.

NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 49%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 44%.

NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas-R): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 45%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 42%.

NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 46%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 44%, postal worker Chris Cole (Libt) - 5%
Pres
-------

Missouri Rasmussen Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6

Florida SurveyUSA Obama 47, McCain 49 McCain +2

Florida Research 2000 Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4

Ohio Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 49 Tie

Colorado Rasmussen Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7

Nevada Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5

Georgia Research 2000 McCain 49, Obama 43 McCain +6

North Dakota Research 2000 McCain 45, Obama 45 Tie

Mississippi Research 2000 McCain 50, Obama 40 McCain +10

Virginia CNU Virginia Poll Obama 53, McCain 47 Obama +6

PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama - 53%, McCain - 37%

Janett_Reno · 10-19-2008, 02:17 PM

Well we have another republican supporting Obama. His name is Colin Powell. I figure he could very well be in Obama's adm if he wanted to.

Polls tighten in W.Va. as race takes back seat

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14707.html

West Virginia's Democratic leaders on Saturday embarked on a winding, eight-county bus tour through the south of the state, and in one small mining town after another, they sold Barack Obama to small crowds of Democrats with remarkable directness.

"He is black" was the first thing Kenny Perdue, the state's AFL-CIO president, said. "The gentleman that's in the White House and John McCain — they're white men. And I'm absolutely ashamed of what George W. Bush has done to this country."

The president of the United Mine Workers, Cecil Roberts, spoke after Perdue in a parking lot set in the flat plateau below the remains of a strip-mined mountain.

"I'd rather have a black friend than a white enemy," he said. State Democratic Party Chairman Nick Casey spoke, too. Casey, 57, grew up Irish Catholic in Charleston, and he said the bus was following John F. Kennedy's bus route in the 1960 Democratic primary.

Minnesota Poll: Obama Holds Wide Lead
Sen. Barack Obama continues to hold a wide lead over Sen. John McCain in Minnesota, 52% to 41%, "largely because most likely voters believe Obama would do a better job with the economy," according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

Mason-Dixon: McCain Up By One Point in Ohio
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Ohio shows Sen. John McCain just edging Sen. Barack Obama, 46% to 45%.

Research 2000: Obama Holds Small Lead in North Carolina
A new Research 2000 poll in North Carolina shows Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain, 46% to 44%.

WI - Pres Oct 19 Mason-Dixon Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 39%

Congress Oct 19 Res. 2000 Democrats 50%, Republicans 35%

Soap Opera Acrtress MEXICAN-AMERICAN ACTRESS KATIE BARBERI ENDORSES JOHN MCCAIN.

Newspapers That Backed Bush Shift To Obama

Two more papers that endorsed President Bush in 2004 backed Barack Obama on Sunday. Both papers hail from Texas: the Houston Chronicle and Austin American Statesman.

The Denver Post, "which had backed George W. Bush in 2004 and is owned by Republican-leaning William Dean Singleton," endorsed Barack Obama for president on Friday. "So did the Chicago Sun-Times, Kansas City Star, Southwest News-Herald (Ill.) and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And to top it off: another Bush-backing in 2004, The Salt Lake Tribune."

Obama now leads 94-28 in editorial endorsements.

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/ea..._id=1003875230

GOP turnout lagging in heavy N. Carolina early voting

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/54396.html

Senate
---------
North Carolina Kay Hagan 49% Elizabeth Dole* 45% Oct 14 Oct 15 Research 2000

Texas Rick Noriega 44% John Cornyn* 50% Oct 14 Oct 15 Research 2000

Janett_Reno · 10-19-2008, 07:37 PM

Notrh Carolina Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Toss Up
Senate Race: Hagan (D) +3.3
Governor Race: McCrory (R) +0.2
Presidential Race: Obama (D) +1.3
Competitive House Races: NC-8
Key 2006 State Races: NC-11

Alaska Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Toss UP
Senate Race: Begich (D) +1.6
Competitive House Races: AK-AL
Key 2006 State Races: Governor

Colorado Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Leans Dem
Senate Race: Udall (D) +9.3
Presidential Race: Obama (D) +6.0
Competitive House Races: CO-4
Key 2006 State Races: Gov | CO-4 | CO-5 | CO-7

Georgia Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Toss Up
Senate Race: Chambliss (R) +2.8
Presidential Race: McCain (R) +6.8
Competitive House Races: GA-8

Kentucky Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Leans GOP
Senate Race: McConnell (R) +6.5
Presidential Race: McCain (R) +14.8
Competitive House Races: KY-3

Louisiana Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Leans Dem
Senate Race: Landrieu Over Kennedy But Questionable On How Much
Presidential Race: McCain (R) +15.4
Competitive House Races: LA-4 | LA-6

Minnesota Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Toss Up
Senate Race: Franken (D) +2.2
Presidential Race: Obama (D) +8.8
Competitive House Races: MN-3

Mississippi Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Toss Up
Senate Race: Wicker (R) +2.7
Presidential Race: McCain (R) +10.3

New Hampshire Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Leans Dem
Senate Race: Shaheen (D) +5.9
Presidential Race: Obama (D) +10.0
Competitive House Races: NH-1

New Mexico Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Likely Dem
Senate Race: Udall (D) +17.6
Presidential Race: Obama (D) +8.4
Competitive House Races: NM-1 | NM-2

Oregon Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Toss Up
Senate Race: Merkley (D) +3.7
Presidential Race: Obama (D) +15.0

Virginia Snapshot
RCP Senate Ranking: Solid Dem
Senate Race: Warner (D) +28.2
Presidential Race: Obama (D) +8.1
Competitive House Races: VA-11

Just out today, the lead is shrinking on Big Daddy McConnell and would this be huge. I know it seems almost impossible but hey strange things have happened before........

Kentucky Senate Research 2000 McConnell 46, Lunsford 42 McConnell +4

Texas Senate Research 2000 Cornyn 50, Noriega 44 Cornyn +6

Janett_Reno · 10-20-2008, 04:24 PM

I find this sort of funny.

Rick Davis: Campaign Rethinking Playing The Rev. Wright Card

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/1..._n_136173.html

This is why it's funny, when republicans and especially neocons run into a dead end, how do they attack? He had a white mom and black dad bewareeeeeeeee, your taxes will go up and the truth known under Obama if you make under 250 grand a year, your taxes will be less than McCain's plan. The First Dude, Todd, Baracuda's husband, is saying our core rights could be taken away, hunting and fishing. Haha it makes me laugh this people under a table. Baracuda is out saying socialism is comming, robo calls going out talking about terrorist. The last 8 years the neo cons has tried so hard to socialize us. Look at these bail outs and hand outs. Look at the deficit and how the neocons love the middle east and China.

Alot of Indep, dem and rep are wanting to hear Mac's plan, issues but him and Palin have none. So again, they are attack dogs. Now that above is saying we might start attacking with Rev Wright again. See what happens when a party runs into a brick wall, no faith, no morals, no ideas or not even a platform to run on. The American people finally saw thru the neocons after 8 years and these attack dogs are making themself worse because they have nothing they are running on. Notice the reps and big time reps dropping to Obama's side. I wonder if Maverick and Baracuda can spell economy? Big macs main man Phil Graham says the American people are a bunch of cry babies because the economy is fine. Can you believe these bunch of neocons use to sell that to the American people and make them believe it? 2 weeks and a day can't come soon enough. Oh yes, you watch who wins and my prediction will come true. Plus you will see more dem senators, house, gov also.

Not alot to mention in the polls today but VA is holding for Obama and as long as he wins that state, he wins. Oh yes Palin Maverick will go back into VA but as soon as they do, Obama/Biden moves back in OH, FL, NV, CO. NC is showing Obama up in one poll pretty good and another very close. FL and OH i feel for the most part shows Big Mac up today about a point or two. Suffolk has Obama up 9 in OH today, so the polls are all over the place on OH and FL. Remember, Big Mac loses if he doesn't defend all these states and wins them out now, plus he must take away PA, VA, MI, WI, or MN away from Obama. Look at the ground game Mac has comparred to Obama, again Mac at a disadvantage because reps are not out working for him like they should.

In the end, see why a neocon must attack and be negative? They do not run on policy, morals, but by attacking.

Put these states down and watch Tues night, if any of these 7 fall, Big Mac won't win.

Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

It is others like MT, ND, WV, GA that Mac is holding but not by much and he can't lose any of them either. I am amazed at what Obama/Biden is doing in VA/NC. Simply amazing. Don't stop, let's put this thing away as it comes out of the northeast and starting down to those two southern states. Let's call that, the end, to the last failed 8 years. Chambliss in GA is up 4 today and Lizz in NC has fell more, down 7.

Great job VA and NC and welcome to your new beautiful blue color.

Janett_Reno · 10-20-2008, 04:33 PM

How much cash does McCain have in the bank?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonath..._the_bank.html

He filed a report with the FEC showing that he had $47 million left to spend as of the start of October. That is of the original $84 million he was given in public funds after the convention last month.

I asked campaign manager Rick Davis on a conference call today how much they have now.

He cited the number from the start of the month, but said that, combined with the RNC, at the end of October they'd be flush by any conventional measure.

"We're going to finish this month with like $150 million in October -- that ought to be enough money to win this election," Davis said. "You know, that's a lot of dough."

But Davis conceded the figure would probably be diminished by what Obama hauls in for the month, guesstimating the Democrat would raise as much as $250 million in October.

The point of the call was to draw attention to the genesis of Obama's small dollar donations, but, in the process, Davis was at times startlingly candid about what the Democrat's financial advantage means.

"There are reports that, just already disclosed, $3 or $4 million of Barack Obama's campaign funds just prior to the $150 million fundraising month were not approrpriate," Davis said. "Now, I'd love to have that $4 million right now to put into Pennsylvania. It'd be a good thing for our campaign. I think it's a game-changer if I can slap all of that right on Philadelphia media market. It's an expensive place. And, yet, Barack Obama gets away with raising illegitimate money and spending it."

Janett_Reno · 10-21-2008, 12:36 PM

McCain Concedes Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico
CNN is reporting that McCain is making those tough decisions that politicians love to talk about. According to CNN, McCain is abandoning Colorado (9 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs) and New Mexico (5 Evs). If Obama wins these three he gets 21 EVs. Add these to the 252 EVs Kerry won and he has 273 and becomes President. McCain's strategy at this point is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and--get this--Pennsylvania. The first six are arguably swing states, but our three-poll average puts Obama 12 points ahead in Pennsylvania. McCain is effectively betting the farm on a state which looks like an Obama landslide. It is a strange choice. Colorado looks a lot easier than Pennsylvania. James Carville once famously said that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama sandwiched in between. Maybe McCain is going to go all out to win the white working class men in the Alabama section of Pennsylvania. McCain can't possibly do it on the economy. What's left? Maybe run against the Wright/Ayers ticket? Any way you look at it, this has to be a desperation move.

Colorado 51% 46% Oct 19 Oct 19 Rasmussen
Florida 48% 49% Oct 19 Oct 19 Rasmussen
Missouri 44% 45% Oct 17 Oct 19 Suffolk U.
Missouri 49% 44% Oct 19 Oct 19 Rasmussen
North Carolina 51% 48% Oct 19 Oct 19 Rasmussen
North Carolina Civitas/TelOpinion (R) Obama 48, McCain 45
Ohio 47% 49% Oct 19 Oct 19 Rasmussen
Ohio 51% 42% Oct 16 Oct 19 Suffolk U.
Pennsylvania 48% 40% Oct 16 Oct 19 Susquehanna Polling
Virginia 51% 45% Oct 18 Oct 19 SurveyUSA
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 52, McCain 42
Virginia 54% 44% Oct 16 Oct 16 Rasmussen
Wisconsin 51% 43% Oct 18 Oct 19 SurveyUSA

If Mitch McConnell lost his senate seat in the state of Ky, this would be worse for the reps than anything. It is one big backlash going on in the USA now against this adm. This next article is shocking if true. Pour some money in Ky dems and get yes man McConnell out. Boot every one of the neocons. The two biggest rubber stamp politicians for Bush is McConnell and Lizzy Dole. McCain is no maverick, he was a Bush rubber stamper also. Put em all down on the farm in Crawford.

Poll: Lunsford, McConnell Tied

http://www.lex18.com/Global/story.as...&nav=menu203_2

A new poll shows that with just two weeks to go until election day, incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat Bruce Lunsford are tied in the U.S. Senate race.

According to the Survey USA poll conducted for LEX 18, both McConnell and Lunsford have 48 percent of the vote. Back in August, McConnell lead by 12 percent.

The margin of error for the current poll is plus or minus 4.3%.

The poll also shows a narrowing lead for John McCain over Barack Obama in the state in the presidental race. McCain leads Obama 54-41%. McCain has dropped three points since the last poll, and Obama is up three points. There is a 2.5% margin of error for this poll.

Neocon Iraq War Promoter Ken Adelman Endorses Obama

First Colin Powell, Now

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...ite-colin.html

Senate
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North Carolina Senate Civitas/TelOpinion (R) Hagan 44, Dole 41 Hagan +3

Minnesota Senate Star Tribune Franken 39, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 Franken +3

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Dems, pour money in KY and boot Mitch, don't slack up on Rubber Stamp Lizzy n NC as she needs to go and go ahead nd get Coleman out and put Franken in MN. One last big one that needs to go camp out in Crawford is Chambliss, pour money in GA. What a beautiful night it is going to be Tuesday night in two weeks.

chumdawg · 10-21-2008, 01:26 PM

To McCain's credit, I watched him give a stump speech in PA this morning, and I thought it was the best he has looked throughout the entire campaign. I suspect it will be too little too late, but he does seem to finding a groove.

Janett_Reno · 10-21-2008, 01:30 PM

I did not see this. I need to watch it. He is going hard after PA it looks because of how many ev's and take that many away from Obama and give him these. It is a very hard task because of the other states he must hold or win. PA will be very hard for McCain. It is huge numbers in early votting comming out in VA. They even mentioned this in FL and IN.

Kirobaito · 10-21-2008, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

I did not see this. I need to watch it. He is going hard after PA it looks because of how many ev's and take that many away from Obama and give him these. It is a very hard task because of the other states he must hold or win. PA will be very hard for McCain. It is huge numbers in early votting comming out in VA. They even mentioned this in FL and IN.

McCain HAS to win Pennsylvania. It is his only shot at this point (and he still has to hold Ohio and Florida, which he's having trouble doing). Now, he's like 10-15 points down there right now, so it'll be tough, but that's the only way he can pick up what he's lost from IA, CO, and NM.

mcsluggo · 10-21-2008, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chumdawg

To McCain's credit, I watched him give a stump speech in PA this morning, and I thought it was the best he has looked throughout the entire campaign. I suspect it will be too little too late, but he does seem to finding a groove.

pressure on hm is fading at this point (it is mostly hopeless) and he is much better when he is a bit more free wheeling, like he was in 99/2000.

Look at the two entirely different creatures we saw when you look at Bob dole 1996, versus any other time in his life. He is kinda funny and engaging overall... he was a total stiff during his campaign. I don't know if he was over-managed? or the pressure just cooked him too much? but he lost the essense of his personality through the campaign. (could say similar things about Al Gore.. he has generated much more enthuisiasm since he has become free-wheeling... AFTER the stiff that ran for president)

chumdawg · 10-21-2008, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

pressure on hm is fading at this point (it is mostly hopeless) and he is much better when he is a bit more free wheeling, like he was in 99/2000.

Look at the two entirely different creatures we saw when you look at Bob dole 1996, versus any other time in his life. He is kinda funny and engaging overall... he was a total stiff during his campaign. I don't know if he was over-managed? or the pressure just cooked him too much? but he lost the essense of his personality through the campaign. (could say similar things about Al Gore.. he has generated much more enthuisiasm since he has become free-wheeling... AFTER the stiff that ran for president)

Good points. And I also remember, just this year, thinking that if the Hillary Clinton who gave her concession speech had been the Hillary Clinton of the primary then she wouldn't have been giving a concession speech at all!

Janett_Reno · 10-21-2008, 05:12 PM

Both of you are so right. Al Gore was trying to be like a professor and people didn't like that. He was to stiff and remember him blowing and snarling in the mic as Bush spoke. I agree both McCain and Hillary was like this but Hillary did lossen up but it was to late and Obama had a foot hold. I am amazed also by Obama's money, ground game. I have often wondered what direction would we have went in with Gore but i have seen him make great speaches now but against W he was just to uptight and comming off as someone thinking he was to smart. No doubt i feel he is a very smart man but he needed to relax. McCain hasn't tried comming off as a professor but again he is to stiff, uptight, gets mad at times and Gore did at W.

Kiro, it is going to be very hard for McCain to win PA but it is true, it's about his only hope. If he gives up CO then VA and NC are very important also. It seems IA, NH, has a mind of their own and you never know who they will vote for. Almost like all independents. Maybe at times NM and CO have been a lil that way. When Obama locked IA up that early it hurt McCain. It give Obama so many options. They got Biden not only for all his experience but for PA. PA was Hillary country. Now Bill, Hillary, Biden and even Obama have really hurt Mac again by making the lead so big, around a double digit lead for Obama. ME is a state you never know which way they might go and it isn't that many ev's but when Obama locked up ME, NH, NM and had IA and holding PA, he has so many options to win.

I think Obama is going to win VA. They say Palin brings big crowds and much bigger than McCain and i wonder if she will run for top ticket in 2012. I think the reps are split on some really liking her and then some not. FL is going to be fun again to see who wins.

Janett_Reno · 10-21-2008, 11:18 PM

I just read this
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John McCain is seemingly ending his effort to seriously contest New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to ABC News. Instead of placing any new ad buys, McCain is reorganizing his previous TV buy to merely stretch the same number of spots over the much wider time between now and election day. The move now turns Pennsylvania in a "do-or-die" state for McCain. The fight is certainly uphill as McCain has been trailing Barack Obama in the Keystone State by a significant margin in recent weeks -- and no Republican White House hopeful has won the state in 20 years. Governor Ed Rendell (D) has sent two memos to the Obama campaign over the past five days requesting that Obama and the Clintons visit the state again during the next two weeks.

I do not understand why Mac would not try going after CO more also because Obama is up 5. I guess it is the fact Mac hasn't got the money to keep up in all states, he has to take something away from Obama to win and PA has more evs than a state like CO.

Colorado InsiderAdvantage Obama 51, McCain 46 Obama +5

McCain Agrees with Murtha in Moon, PA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLVSU..._n_136702.html

chumdawg · 10-21-2008, 11:24 PM

Money plays a real issue here. If McCain is able to swing PA, it won't be without great expenditure of resources. This will probably make it impossible for him to defend a Virginia or a Florida.

McCain is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. I don't think there is anyone who believes that he can run the table on the swing states and also nab PA.

You can stick your fork in him now.