Nerlens Noel - Page 19 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

SMC0007 · 08-29-2017, 01:57 PM

15/12/2/2 would be absolutely fantastic...but that isn't going to happen.

rimrocker · 08-29-2017, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigDog63

Yep. He would go up IF he gets that 15/12/2/2 and IF he stays healthy the whole year, maybe around the $21/22M mark.

But for him, especially the health part, those are big IFs. Conversely, if he does about the same numbers he did this year, AND gets injured again....he probably drops down a bit.

The problem, in a nutshell, is that Noel (and his old agent) thought he would get paid for what he might be, when the market was going to pay him more for what he is. This is true of any current NBA player...I can't think of any, really, that had been in the league for a while, that got paid on potential. They have to show it first, and usually for about a year.

I keep thinking about Tyson Chandler after we won the championship. If I'm not mistaken he didn't get anywhere near a max deal from NY yet he was a key piece in winning a championship in his prime the year before. Noel isn't even close to that now and has injury concerns on top of that and has proven absolutely nothing other than potential.

I honestly can't figure out why in the hell his agent thinks he is worth the max or even close when the market and his numbers don't come close to support it.

This whole thing is completely baffling to me.

Underdog · 08-29-2017, 02:18 PM

Will Nerlens Noel Regret Betting on Himself With a Qualifying Offer?

https://bballbreakdown.com/2017/08/2...lifying-offer/

EricaLubarsky · 08-29-2017, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavzMan

Yes, you are correct and I need to clarify my statement. He is not making his teammates better by being on the court ... like Dirk or Duncan or Lebron. My view of a max contract is a person that simply being on the court makes his teammates play better. Noel could be that defensively, but his offense is nowhere near it.

I don't think offense is the end all be all, but I agree that he's not a max player even if you look at his other stats. It's funny how the new CBA has made us believe that solid role players deserve max contracts. They don't. Bigs certainly get paid more than smalls, but you absolutely don't pay a merely average center max money.

Among Centers
16th in PER
35th in rebound rate
30th in EWA
NET PER of only 0.3 (only outplays opposing center by 0.3 PER)

Those just aren't the numbers for a max player.

yahyes · 08-29-2017, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Will Nerlens Noel Regret Betting on Himself With a Qualifying Offer?

https://bballbreakdown.com/2017/08/2...lifying-offer/

No.

Bryan_Wilson · 08-29-2017, 08:53 PM

He couldn't get the max in this shitty center market, he couldn't even get an offer outside of Dallas from what has been reported. No reason to believe at this point he is worth the max next year with a much better center market. No reason for the Mavs to play him 30mins plus either and risk injury if we aren't contending. Which is one of a few reasons I think we are looking at Withey. If DSJ balls out as a rookie and makes Noel look like a max player the Mavs would be a 5-6th seed and I just don't see that.

DevinHarriswillstart · 08-30-2017, 07:41 AM

Sooo this is 100% on Noel then. Even if Mama Noel was right, it would only have been with Walters to get that supposed 4/80.

Quote:

And they couldn’t have gotten there: Noel fired Walters midway through the stalled negotiations for Klutch Sports’s Rich Paul, who came with the stipulation that Noel had to make himself available on the market next season. The 23-year-old signed the one-year qualifying offer less than a week after hiring his new representation.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/8...llas-mavericks

Underdog · 08-30-2017, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Sooo this is 100% on Noel then. Even if Mama Noel was right, it would only have been with Walters to get that supposed 4/80.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/8...llas-mavericks

SMFH, if this is true, then 100% of the blame for negotiations breaking down falls on Noel.

Underdog · 08-30-2017, 08:27 AM

Centers the Mavericks could pursue next summer

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/8...deandre-jordan

SMC0007 · 08-30-2017, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Centers the Mavericks could pursue next summer

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/8...deandre-jordan

No interest in Cousins or Jordan at this point.

Davis doesn't seem possible.

The rest are not impressive enough to worry about today.

Melonhead · 08-30-2017, 12:27 PM

Excited for the search of a center next season and forever beyond.

MavzMan · 08-30-2017, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigDog63

The problem, in a nutshell, is that Noel (and his old agent) thought he would get paid for what he might be, when the market was going to pay him more for what he is. This is true of any current NBA player...I can't think of any, really, that had been in the league for a while, that got paid on potential. They have to show it first, and usually for about a year.

Harrison Barnes? We signed him purely based on potential and honestly, NOONE thought he was going to be as good as he has been outside of the MBT. We all had hopes for him and didn't want to give that money to Chandler, but the guy has seriously stepped up.

MavzMan · 08-30-2017, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Centers the Mavericks could pursue next summer

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/8...deandre-jordan

Cousins - No
Jordan - Hell No!
Capela - could be something there, but again 12.6 pts, 8.1 reb, and 1.2 blocks is gonna cost how much?
Embiid - Philly will resign him if he stays healthy since they only have $18.6 mill on the books for 2018
Noel - starting to really wonder if he's a head case and may be another bullet for us to dodge

In the "positionless basketball" the NBA has moved to, it doesn't make sense to sign a true center to a max deal unless he is a legit game changer.

EricaLubarsky · 08-30-2017, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Excited for the search of a center next season and forever beyond.

I'd still put our odds of re-signing Noel at 75%, but it might be time to get an exorcist to finally put Tarpley's skull curse to rest.

Underdog · 08-30-2017, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavzMan

Harrison Barnes? We signed him purely based on potential and honestly, NOONE thought he was going to be as good as he has been outside of the MBT. We all had hopes for him and didn't want to give that money to Chandler, but the guy has seriously stepped up.

Yeah, but the big difference between Barnes and Noel is injuries -- you can't reach your potential if you're not on the floor... Noel is going to have to stay healthy like Barnes if he wants to take that next step like Barnes.

DevinHarriswillstart · 08-30-2017, 05:14 PM

Barnes was signed largely as an act of desperation. After the Mavs lost out on their Whitewise/Conley dream, the market dried up quickly with them left spinning in their chairs. They basically HAD to do something like that in order to even field an NBA caliber team.

And Barnes had a different kind of potential than Noel in that he could shoot the ball well. Noel's problem is that his type of center is more or less becoming less effective in the new positionless league. Not being a playmaker or shooter really hurts a player's value on the floor. Capela is a prime example of that. You'd think Houston desperately needed his defense and rebounding and yet he only averaged 24 mpg for them. That's not to say that these types of players don't have a role in the league, but they just aren't max guys anymore unless they absolutely dominate rebounding/defense.

sefant77 · 08-30-2017, 07:03 PM

Barnes was healthy and there was still a FA market with money available. Noel had no freaking market.

15m would been fair, 17.5m was more than generous (like the entire internet agreed!), more than that just unnecessary overpaying. Again, with the 17.5m we could have reached the 25m capspace without an expensive dumping of Powell. Giving Noel more even without any market) and we are looking in 2018 at an expensive "we must dump Powell" situation.

This is ALL on Noel. Never saw the entire NBA fanbase and experts etc agreeing on one thing.

yahyes · 08-30-2017, 08:00 PM

Don't get some of the skepticism leading to already talking about free agent centers for next year... we've seen a good preview those last 30 games after Mavs traded to get him. Just wait till Dennis and all of our guards work with him. Really I think those games he didn't play were because of the tanking. Since cubes did admit they ended up tanking early.

https://youtu.be/zlXWndemxcg

These highlights alone show he's been meshing good already.

EricaLubarsky · 08-30-2017, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

Don't get some of the skepticism leading to already talking about free agent centers for next year... we've seen a good preview those last 30 games after Mavs traded to get him. Just wait till Dennis and all of our guards work with him. Really I think those games he didn't play were because of the tanking. Since cubes did admit they ended up tanking early.

https://youtu.be/zlXWndemxcg

These highlights alone show he's been meshing good already.

People think that free agents don't sign here

People don't realize that players rarely leave their teams in free agency. We've struck out so much because we've depended on players leaving their teams for us (Howard, Jordan, Deron, etc). Parsons was the only one we lured away, but players only ever really leave if the money is way better (like Parsons)

The players we lost in free agency have been our own damn fault. Chandler needed long-term commitment, Nash was low balled and hopefully Cuban learned. Are there gen others in the Cuban era?

NeedlesKane · 08-30-2017, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

People think that free agents don't sign here

People don't realize that players rarely leave their teams in free agency. We've struck out so much because we've depended on players leaving their teams for us (Howard, Jordan, Deron, etc). Parsons was the only one we lured away, but players only ever really leave if the money is way better (like Parsons)

The players we lost in free agency have been our own damn fault. Chandler needed long-term commitment, Nash was low balled and hopefully Cuban learned. Are there gen others in the Cuban era?

I think we're busy comparing ourselves against the elite teams like the Spurs. Even the Rockets have been great in recent years at landing players or making the right moves. The Mavericks look bad due to the lack of NBA Draft talent. Most of our roster is compromised of undrafted players. That doesn't meant that they're bad though.

MavzMan · 08-31-2017, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sefant77

This is ALL on Noel. Never saw the entire NBA fanbase and experts etc agreeing on one thing.

And yet ... there is always one ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Will Nerlens Noel Regret Betting on Himself With a Qualifying Offer?

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

No.

yahyes · 08-31-2017, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

People think that free agents don't sign here

People don't realize that players rarely leave their teams in free agency. We've struck out so much because we've depended on players leaving their teams for us (Howard, Jordan, Deron, etc). Parsons was the only one we lured away, but players only ever really leave if the money is way better (like Parsons)

The players we lost in free agency have been our own damn fault. Chandler needed long-term commitment, Nash was low balled and hopefully Cuban learned. Are there gen others in the Cuban era?

Chandler just leaves the question on whether if the Mavs could have gone back to back finals? Nash I never really sweated it. Cause it turned out to be Jason Kidd returning. If Tristan Thompson can get a boat load of pay from Cle for just rebounding. Then Noel really does have a chance being an all-star this season coming up.

BPo001 · 08-31-2017, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

Chandler just leaves the question on whether if the Mavs could have gone back to back finals? Nash I never really sweated it. Cause it turned out to be Jason Kidd returning. If Tristan Thompson can get a boat load of pay from Cle for just rebounding. Then Noel really does have a chance being an all-star this season coming up.

What does TT getting paid to rebound have to do with Noel making his first all star game in a different conference?

yahyes · 08-31-2017, 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BPo001

What does TT getting paid to rebound have to do with Noel making his first all star game in a different conference?

Cause if Noel does make the all star game. Or help get the Mavs into playoffs. He could get paid the same type of contract TT got last year.. Though, there's more to work with Noel offensively.

DevinHarriswillstart · 08-31-2017, 09:02 PM

Who actually thinks Noel is worth a max contract? It's one thing to say keep him whatever the cost and another to actually say that he is worth it. It only takes one team to set a market value, and not one team though Noel was worth that.

So...other than maybe Spreedom...who thinks Noel is worth max money at this point?

yahyes · 08-31-2017, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Who actually thinks Noel is worth a max contract? It's one thing to say keep him whatever the cost and another to actually say that he is worth it. It only takes one team to set a market value, and not one team though Noel was worth that.

So...other than maybe Spreedom...who thinks Noel is worth max money at this point?

I think he can easily turn into a max player on the Mavs. Let's just wait till Dennis and him meet.

BPo001 · 08-31-2017, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Who actually thinks Noel is worth a max contract? It's one thing to say keep him whatever the cost and another to actually say that he is worth it. It only takes one team to set a market value, and not one team though Noel was worth that.

So...other than maybe Spreedom...who thinks Noel is worth max money at this point?

I certainly don't, but I also don't think half the players making the max deserve the max. If someone offers him the max I hope it's not Dallas.

Bryan_Wilson · 08-31-2017, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Who actually thinks Noel is worth a max contract? It's one thing to say keep him whatever the cost and another to actually say that he is worth it. It only takes one team to set a market value, and not one team though Noel was worth that.

So...other than maybe Spreedom...who thinks Noel is worth max money at this point?

Right now? Absolutely not. And I would put the odds of him being a max player next summer at less than 10%. The only way it happens is if he plays 30+ mins injury free and is in the conversation with guys like Jordan, Gobert, and Whiteside.

yahyes · 08-31-2017, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Right now? Absolutely not. And I would put the odds of him being a max player next summer at less than 10%. The only way it happens is if he plays 30+ mins injury free and is in the conversation with guys like Jordan, Gobert, and Whiteside.

I think Gogurt and Jordan so far have proved to be overrated. Now Noel could be Whiteside's worst nightmare next season. That right there tells you a lot. The league has been changing at center much more now.

rimrocker · 09-01-2017, 05:16 AM

I think the value of a player is not only reflected in the market based on stats but how that player fits a team need, system and situation.

Barnes was not a max caliber player last season but the Mavs were desperate for youth and anything that resembled a star or at least had star potential. That turned out to be a wise move although I still don't think he is a true max caliber player yet.

If Mavs think DSJ/Barnes/Noel will be a championship caliber core within the next 5 years then I don't see a problem with overpaying Noel. I personally don't see that core taking us to any championships without adding a superstar though.

I guess where I am going with this is that if Mavs can work it out to have enough left cap wise after signing Noel to add that super star in the next season or two and keep some of the key role players then I'm not sure I care at all if they overpay him.

Obviously the Mavs know this and that it won't be realistic to acquire one next season if they would have overpaid Noel this season. If Curry meshes well with DSJ then they'll probably want to make sure they can resign Curry and if not they know they are still a MAJOR piece away and will need enough cap space to try to entice a star FA.

It sucks that Noel didn't accept the 17mil offer because having him locked up would help our cause in luring a decent FA next season or resigning Curry.
Mavs will be in a similar situation now with Noel as they are with Curry. If they both take their games to extremely high levels one of them will definitely be gone and they probably realized signing Noel to anything close to max assured Curry would be gone no matter what.

sefant77 · 09-01-2017, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

Chandler just leaves the question on whether if the Mavs could have gone back to back finals? Nash I never really sweated it. Cause it turned out to be Jason Kidd returning. If Tristan Thompson can get a boat load of pay from Cle for just rebounding. Then Noel really does have a chance being an all-star this season coming up.

Still doing the stupid TT comparison? TT got his money because Lebron told the Cavs FO to do it. And they did because they were/are Lebrons bitches.

Does Lebron plays for the Mavs? No.

Bryan_Wilson · 09-01-2017, 12:26 PM

Rich Paul had the Cavs by the balls with the circumstance of their cap situation. The Cavs were over the cap so if they did not cave to the demands of TT and Rich Paul they would have to replace him using only exception level money or by trading away salary, either option making the team worse and Lebron not happy.

SMC0007 · 09-01-2017, 12:59 PM

The way TT got into the thread is cracking me up.

Underdog · 09-01-2017, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

The way TT got into the thread is cracking me up.

yahyes is always most interested in the conversation that nobody else is having.

SMC0007 · 09-01-2017, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

yahyes is always most interested in the conversation that nobody else is having.

If a car is going 50 mph in one direction, then cookies are good.

I can appreciate it for offseason entertainment.

EricaLubarsky · 09-01-2017, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

If a car is going 50 mph in one direction, then cookies are good.

I can appreciate it for offseason entertainment.

I like turtles.

Also, we should have kept Steve Nash

BPo001 · 09-01-2017, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I like turtles.

Also, we should have kept Steve Nash

Turtles are overrated unless they were taught martial arts by a rat. Steve Nash should have stuck with soccer his first true love.

EricaLubarsky · 09-01-2017, 03:22 PM

Just a couple more weeks and we'll have real Mavs news.

yahyes · 09-01-2017, 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

yahyes is always most interested in the conversation that nobody else is having.

Ugh well I guess you weren't taught examples then... I do think Noel can be worth max money. It's very likely compared to chasing after Cousins.

Underdog · 09-01-2017, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

I do think Noel can be worth max money. It's very likely compared to chasing after Cousins.

What does this statement even mean? Why are you jumping from Tristan Thompson to DeMarcus Cousins, and what does "chasing after" Boogie have to do with Noel's value? What comparison are you making?

Also, how does your post even remotely refute my last post? If anything, you've made my argument for me...