This team was considerably better with Butler.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Yeah, I'm not even sure where "second most important" came from. I certainly didn't say that....

Nah, I said that - I figured it was a good point to distinguish between the two...

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I just think most in this thread are overstating the loss. He was a terrible player for the first month of the season and somehow we were still good.

It would obviously be better if he were still here, but it's not lke we lost our second best player. We lost a rotation player.

I think there is something to be said for being fresh and having the depth and different options we had early in the season(minus Roddy).

I'm not confident that we have a clear cut 2nd best player. Some nights it's Chandler, some nights it's Marion and other nights it's by far JET. Shows how inconsistent we can be outside of Dirk. I am one in a group that thinks Caron is a solid defender, better and more threatening on offense than Marion so the two are imo really close in that discussion. Especially considering what has been happening in some of the losses we have had. Not just the losses but the matchups issues.

Without Caron we have Kidd trying to guard Artest/other SF's for more time than I would like to see and we try to hide Roddy's size vs other SG's...and all of that create complications on the defensive end. We can be so unconventional with certain matchups at times that it seems like they are more focused and aware of mis-matches that they forget to hustle and work their asses off defensively. Hell last night I thought when Chandler had 5 fouls and Dirk switched on to L.A. he did a great job. There was nothing left to do but work hard and he did.

[dalger]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

I'm in the minority, but I think Butler's contributions are overrated. We were doing much better before his injury, but I think we were playing over our heads, and we'd have come back down anyway. On offense, he wasn't attacking as much as any of us wanted. We were doing well because he (along with Jet and Stevenson and Kidd anyone else who was shooting) was hitting his outside jumpers. He was adding some toughness on defense, but our defense was already settling back down to mediocre at best.

If Butler was still playing now, we'd be better than we are, but we'd still not be good enough, and we'd all be clamoring for a real 2nd star.

Losing a good player like Butler is something you don't want to happen in a league this talented where the difference between glory and failure is razor thin. Which contending team would still be considered a contender or favorite after losing a player of Caron's caliber? What about the Lakers without Bynum? What about the Spurs without Parker? Boston without Allen? Orlando without Richardson? Chicago without Noah? All of those teams would suffer a great deal if that kind of an injury were to happen to one of their crucial players. The Celtics still think that a more flexible ACL in Kendrick Perkins' knee would have won them a championship last season.

What makes Caron's injury worse is that we don't have someone to fill his role. Right now, it looks like Cardinal and Stevenson are the guys who are supposed to play most of Butler's minutes. The difference between Caron and either Stevenson or Cardinal at the 3 is massive.

When Dirk was on the bench, we were still able to play Jet AND Butler to deliver offensively and make up for not having Dirk on the court. Right now, when Dirk's on the bench, we only have Jet or Roddy as scorers. Marion and Chandler can score as well, yet creating offense is hardly their biggest strength. So there's a trickle-down effect in many ways. On the one hand, our forward rotation is no longer as good as it used to be with Caron. On the other hand, guys like Jet and Roddy have to do more than they were expected and supposed to do prior to Butler's injury.

Something that's worth noticing is that we weren't so good in November/December because everyone was rolling, as suggested in the quoted posting. JJB was horrible late last year, Kidd's 3-pointer would hardly fall at all and Jet was in a terrible slump.

I don't know whether or not Caron's injury is THE difference, and who's to say we would be better than the Lakers or Spurs even with him? That said, we were really good back then, beat a lot of very good teams in impressive fashion and our rotation was working like a charm.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Underdog

On some nights he was.

If he'd somehow been able to keep the pace he was at when he went down with that injury (a HUGE assumption, I know), then it wouldn't be so far-fetched to call him our 2nd-best all-around player (although that wouldn't necessarily make him the 2nd most-important player, as Kidd and Chandler really bring more due to their positions...)

On some nights JJB is our second best player (hell on some nights he's been our best). That doesn't mean anything.

Your second point I will agree with. The Caron Butler of January was a really, really nice player. If that Caron was going to be the Caron for the rest of the season then he was a huge, huge loss.

But that month was propped up by shooting numbers that I would deem to be unsustainable. He shot 48% from the floor and 44% from three during that stretch, and both of those would be career highs by a mile for him. Those were a pretty safe bet to not continue.

If he was just having a great month, as I suspect, then he would have come back down to earth. If he was trending upwards and was going to maintain a level of play close to that, then he was a huge loss. Just depends on what you believe was going to happen.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by jthig32

On some nights JJB is our second best player (hell on some nights he's been our best). That doesn't mean anything.

Your second point I will agree with. The Caron Butler of January was a really, really nice player. If that Caron was going to be the Caron for the rest of the season then he was a huge, huge loss.

But that month was propped up by shooting numbers that I would deem to be unsustainable. He shot 48% from the floor and 44% from three during that stretch, and both of those would be career highs by a mile for him. Those were a pretty safe bet to not continue.

If he was just having a great month, as I suspect, then he would have come back down to earth. If he was trending upwards and was going to maintain a level of play close to that, then he was a huge loss. Just depends on what you believe was going to happen.

Even if it was just a great stretch, there's nothing to say he couldn't have another great stretch when the playoffs roll around. The potential for him being able to sustain a high level of play was definitely a lot better than anyone we've tried to replace him with (other than perhaps Marion...)

Just a bummer that we never got to find out.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Even if it was just a great stretch, there's nothing to say he couldn't have another great stretch when the playoffs roll around. The potential for him being able to sustain a high level of play was definitely a lot better than anyone we've tried to replace him with (other than perhaps Marion...)

Just a bummer that we never got to find out.

True enough.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Just a bummer that we never got to find out.

I think the guy is coming back (on crutches, if he has to) for the second round, assuming the Mavs get there.

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by kg_veteran

The issue is whether Butler gave the team a better chance to win in the playoffs. I think the answer to that is clearly yes.

eh. We would be better now with him. That's so clearly yes that a thread about it would be useless. The issue is how much better would we be, or, more specifically, can we attribute the "contender" status (long-shot though it may have been) that we had before Butler went down to Butler himself? I don't think so. The team was playing defense over-it's head (Chandler was the savior and goodness, where's he gone?), and the team (Butler especially) was hitting jumpers at a great rate.

The defense was already slipping, and I think even with his tough-juiceness, we wouldn't be a whole lot better than we are now. On the other end, jumpshooting offenses are unreliable. Who knows if we'd be getting into another hot streak by playoff time. Chances are that a jumpshooting hot streak wouldn't last more than a single round of the playoffs anyway.

So, for playoff chances, if Butler was never hurt, I think he'd increase our chances greatly for getting out of the first round, and increase them almost imperceptibly for getting to the conference finals.

[JeffViggiano]

Originally Posted by jthig32

The drop off from Stevenson to Roddy on the defensive end is pretty drastic.

i think that deshawn could takes his minutes for SG,he is a good player with great defensive skills.terry is our other SG.

then roddy and jj will play only PG.but if jj is that player we have seen in this games he can stay on the bench 48minutes.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by JeffViggiano

i think that deshawn could takes his minutes for SG,he is a good player with great defensive skills.terry is our other SG.

then roddy and jj will play only PG.but if jj is that player we have seen in this games he can stay on the bench 48minutes.

You're misunderstanding my position.

I am in no way calling for Stevenson to get more minutes at SG (or SF).

[mavsfan1000]

Originally Posted by JeffViggiano

i think that deshawn could takes his minutes for SG,he is a good player with great defensive skills.terry is our other SG.

then roddy and jj will play only PG.but if jj is that player we have seen in this games he can stay on the bench 48minutes.

Stevenson sucks. The guy is just horrible on offense. We can't afford to have him out there. We already got lack of playmakers outside Dirk. Kidd feeds off other playmakers abilities with the 3 or the extra pass. But maybe as bad as Stevenson is, he isn't as bad Barea's defense. lol We are better off with as little of Stevenson and Barea as possible. Terry isn't great but he might be our second best scorer sadly. Or until Beaubois can be more consistent. I think we need Marion off the bench for needed energy so we don't fall off so much in the second and fourth quarter.

[deamon]

You're really funny people. When I said I miss Butler and Mavs need him, you said we can beat anyone and win chmapionship without him. Now after few lost games, you say you miss him.

[DirkFTW]

Originally Posted by deamon

You're really funny people. When I said I miss Butler and Mavs need him, you said we can beat anyone and win chmapionship without him. Now after few lost games, you say you miss him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAlVKgl_zCQ

[LonghornDub]

By my count, the Mavs beat 8 West playoff teams with Butler in the lineup (Nov and Dec), and have beaten 2 without him (Jan, Feb, and half of March).

[dalger]

I'm in danger of overrating Caron these days, but losing him might be about more than just his personal production on the court. Our forward rotation has been a mess ever since he's been injured. We're forced to play ill-fitted guys like Stevenson and Cardinal, who just can't replace him, at the small forward spot. Caron's no longer there to take pressure off of Jet on offense, especially when Dirk's on the bench. His defense is missing as well and in general we're just not as balanced as we used to be. Caron's toughness and ability to step up in crucial moments didn't hurt either.

Those are the trickle-down effects of his injury that can make a huge difference at this level. A difference like winning a game by 5 instead of losing it by 5. When Ginobili was out in the 2009 playoffs, we completely dominated the Spurs. A year later, when he was back and we were no worse than the year before, the Spurs took revenge and eliminated us. Even players like Ginobili and Butler, despite not being true superstars, can change the dynamics of an entire team.

[xrobx]

Originally Posted by dalger

I'm in danger of overrating Caron these days, but losing him might be about more than just his personal production on the court. Our forward rotation has been a mess ever since he's been injured. We're forced to play ill-fitted guys like Stevenson and Cardinal, who just can't replace him, at the small forward spot. Caron's no longer there to take pressure off of Jet on offense, especially when Dirk's on the bench. His defense is missing as well and in general we're just not as balanced as we used to be. Caron's toughness and ability to step up in crucial moments didn't hurt either.

Those are the trickle-down effects of his injury that can make a huge difference at this level. A difference like winning a game by 5 instead of losing it by 5. When Ginobili was out in the 2009 playoffs, we completely dominated the Spurs. A year later, when he was back and we were no worse than the year before, the Spurs took revenge and eliminated us. Even players like Ginobili and Butler, despite not being true superstars, can change the dynamics of an entire team.

maybe...

well if it makes you feel any better, we had him healthy last year as a #2 seed and still lost in the first round anyway.

[dalger]

Originally Posted by xrobx

maybe...

well if it makes you feel any better, we had him healthy last year as a #2 seed and still lost in the first round anyway.

Replace Damp with Tyson in that series and you already have a different ball game. Not to mention that Butler played better this year than last year and the entire team's chemistry looked like that of a well-oiled machine, which is no surprise given that they had an entire training camp and more time to gel as a team.

[JeffViggiano]

Originally Posted by dalger

Replace Damp with Tyson in that series and you already have a different ball game. Not to mention that Butler played better this year than last year and the entire team's chemistry looked like that of a well-oiled machine, which is no surprise given that they had an entire training camp and more time to gel as a team.

but is chandler so good??? against lakers and spurs he was been destroy.i'm confused.

we pay him 12M a years.a lot of money.

[rabbitproof]

I won't complain about injuries themselves because every team goes through them (Hello, Boston, Portland, Miami).

However, in terms of injury, it sure feels unlucky in terms of timing. Butler was balling and being the best player on the team when he got hurt. Marion has been playing his best ball of the year when he got hurt.

[deamon]

Doubt he is in TOP 10 centers in NBA, maybe 10th. Howard, Gasol, Bynum, Bogut, Noah, Horford, Nene, B. Lopez, A. Jefferson are better than Chandler.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

The defense has somehow yet to recover since his injury. Players across the board minus Marion have just not shown up on that end consistently lately.

[JeffViggiano]

Originally Posted by deamon

Doubt he is in TOP 10 centers in NBA, maybe 10th. Howard, Gasol, Bynum, Bogut, Noah, Horford, Nene, B. Lopez, A. Jefferson are better than Chandler.

well,then is it good offer to him 12M???

[tcat075]

I know its hard to remember, but Butler was taking the ball to the hole more than I'd even seen in those last 10 games before his injury. He still wasn't converting well, but his settling for contested jumpers we'd seen basically his entire stint for the Mavericks was fading more and more.

[grndmstr_c]

Better? Absolutely. Considerably better? What's considerably mean? The drop-off from Caron to Marion is somewhere between negligible and inverted (as in, Marion's better). If the current situation of no Peja combined with a completely unsettled rotation behind Marion at SF continues, then not having Caron is a big-time loss. If Dallas can get a reasonably healthy Peja back and/or get Corey to the point where he can be a regular rotation player, Caron's injury becomes an unfortunate loss that's arguably more than compensated for (in terms of comparing Dallas now to Dallas before Caron's injury) by a healthy Booby and a living, breathing Haywood (though, of course, combine them with a healthy Caron and you're obviously at an even higher level).

Another thing to keep in mind (if it hasn't been said earlier in the thread), is that this recent stretch of close losses to playoff teams - which seems to be the primary motivation behind the timing of this thread - has come for the most part (Lakers excluded) with Dallas facing additional injuries to their centers and Marion (whose importance now can hardly be overstated). It's easy to get frustrated, and optimism seems silly, but it's also true that even excluding Caron's knee, there's considerable room for Dallas luck on the health front to improve relative to what they've been dealing with the past 2-3 weeks.

[Alykhan04]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Better? Absolutely. Considerably better? What's considerably mean? The drop-off from Caron to Marion is somewhere between negligible and inverted (as in, Marion's better). If the current situation of no Peja combined with a completely unsettled rotation behind Marion at SF continues, then not having Caron is a big-time loss. If Dallas can get a reasonably healthy Peja back and/or get Corey to the point where he can be a regular rotation player, Caron's injury becomes an unfortunate loss that's arguably more than compensated for (in terms of comparing Dallas now to Dallas before Caron's injury) by a healthy Booby and a living, breathing Haywood (though, of course, combine them with a healthy Caron and you're obviously at an even higher level).

Another thing to keep in mind (if it hasn't been said earlier in the thread), is that this recent stretch of close losses to playoff teams - which seems to be the primary motivation behind the timing of this thread - has come for the most part (Lakers excluded) with Dallas facing additional injuries to their centers and Marion (whose importance now can hardly be overstated). It's easy to get frustrated, and optimism seems silly, but it's also true that even excluding Caron's knee, there's considerable room for Dallas luck on the health front to improve relative to what they've been dealing with the past 2-3 weeks.

I completely agree with this. I think it's hard not to pinpoint Caron's injury as the catalyst for our regression on D, and I myself have even thought about that. But I don't think it's simply Caron. I can't come to the fact that without Caron our D cannot perform like it did in the beginning of the season. It's something else. I'm just not smart enough to know what.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Better? Absolutely. Considerably better? What's considerably mean? The drop-off from Caron to Marion is somewhere between negligible and inverted (as in, Marion's better). If the current situation of no Peja combined with a completely unsettled rotation behind Marion at SF continues, then not having Caron is a big-time loss. If Dallas can get a reasonably healthy Peja back and/or get Corey to the point where he can be a regular rotation player, Caron's injury becomes an unfortunate loss that's arguably more than compensated for (in terms of comparing Dallas now to Dallas before Caron's injury) by a healthy Booby and a living, breathing Haywood (though, of course, combine them with a healthy Caron and you're obviously at an even higher level).

Another thing to keep in mind (if it hasn't been said earlier in the thread), is that this recent stretch of close losses to playoff teams - which seems to be the primary motivation behind the timing of this thread - has come for the most part (Lakers excluded) with Dallas facing additional injuries to their centers and Marion (whose importance now can hardly be overstated). It's easy to get frustrated, and optimism seems silly, but it's also true that even excluding Caron's knee, there's considerable room for Dallas luck on the health front to improve relative to what they've been dealing with the past 2-3 weeks.

Considerably means significantly. If your next question is "what's significantly mean?", I'm afraid this could go on awhile.

Unfortunately, I wish this thread was motivated just by the recent stretch of losses. It's actually motivated by the Mavs playing generally mediocre to poor defense pretty much all the time since the beginning of January. They've been healthy (including Peja) for many of those stretches, and still haven't played anything near the level of lock-down defense we saw early in the year.

You're more focused on the last few weeks, but the Mavs haven't been performing on the defensive end since he went out, even when they were winning. That's what the post was really about, not just the recent tough stretch.

[JeffViggiano]

butler is a great player but in the 4th quarter he was every game on the bench.Marion has ever play in the 4th quarters before caron's injuries.
we have lost a lot of game by 5 or less point,then i think caron-less is not so important in those game.

[dalger]

Originally Posted by JeffViggiano

butler is a great player but in the 4th quarter he was every game on the bench.Marion has ever play in the 4th quarters before caron's injuries.
we have lost a lot of game by 5 or less point,then i think caron-less is not so important in those game.

I'm not quite sure I understand you correctly, but I guess you were trying to make two points: 1) Caron didn't play much in 4th quarters, so he doesn't seem to be all that important anyway; 2) Given that a lot of our losses were close games, the team we currently have should be able to win these games eventually by playing just a little better.

The fact that Butler didn't play a lot in 4th quarters doesn't mean he wasn't important. Games are played through four quarters. Oftentimes, players are supposed to shine at different times and thus create a more well balanced attack. That's why Marion and Jet, who are both starting material, come off the bench. That's why Josh was supposed to get us off to a good start back in the day, as Jet and Dirk would get it done in the 4th. Butler's injury disrupted our high-quality forward rotation, forced us to play ill-fitted guys like Cardinal and Stevenson as his replacements, weakened us on both ends of the floor, and made us more dependent on Jet and now Roddy's offensive production, maybe even Peja's for crying out loud. Losing Butler isn't great, but replacing him with Cardinal and Stevenson can be too much to stay competitive against the best teams in the league.

One could even argue that the close games we've lost recently make his injury even more unfortunate. If the top teams completely outplayed us again and again, even Butler wouldn't be able to change that. Seeing that we've been rather competitive in those games, it makes that one spark even more desireable.

That said, I don't expect him to come back any time soon, much less in the shape from earlier in the season. Whether most of our problems were caused by Caron's injury or not is probably impossible to answer. Maybe there are a lot of contributing factors that go way beyond the loss of a single player. I don't know. However, it's interesting that early January seems to be the time when things started to get considerably worse, especially when it comes to beating quality opponents.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Unfortunately, I wish this thread was motivated just by the recent stretch of losses. It's actually motivated by the Mavs playing generally mediocre to poor defense pretty much all the time since the beginning of January. They've been healthy (including Peja) for many of those stretches, and still haven't played anything near the level of lock-down defense we saw early in the year.

I thought the Mavs' defense, particularly the tone set at tip-off, was solid for the most part when Marion was starting. That's one thing. Another is that Stevenson's play at SG was a big part of Dallas' defensive success in December, and his minutes are now going to Booby. Furthermore, when he does get on the court now it's frequently at SF, where he's really not effective at all to my mind. The defensive drop-off that's resulted from that evolution of the rotation is real, but it has nothing to do with Caron being absent from the rotation, and depending on how Booby progresses over the remainder of the season it's not even necessarily a bad thing.

[JHT]

I really don't think this team was any better than Butler. Think about what we saw against the Spurs. It looked exactly like the team we saw against the Spurs in the playoffs last year, and that team had Butler.

Were Butler here now, I suspect we'd still be seeing the same thing. Maybe we'd get a little less three guard lineup, but the end result probably wouldn't be any different.

[JeffViggiano]

Originally Posted by dalger

I'm not quite sure I understand you correctly, but I guess you were trying to make two points: 1) Caron didn't play much in 4th quarters, so he doesn't seem to be all that important anyway; 2) Given that a lot of our losses were close games, the team we currently have should be able to win these games eventually by playing just a little better.

The fact that Butler didn't play a lot in 4th quarters doesn't mean he wasn't important. Games are played through four quarters. Oftentimes, players are supposed to shine at different times and thus create a more well balanced attack. That's why Marion and Jet, who are both starting material, come off the bench. That's why Josh was supposed to get us off to a good start back in the day, as Jet and Dirk would get it done in the 4th. Butler's injury disrupted our high-quality forward rotation, forced us to play ill-fitted guys like Cardinal and Stevenson as his replacements, weakened us on both ends of the floor, and made us more dependent on Jet and now Roddy's offensive production, maybe even Peja's for crying out loud. Losing Butler isn't great, but replacing him with Cardinal and Stevenson can be too much to stay competitive against the best teams in the league.

One could even argue that the close games we've lost recently make his injury even more unfortunate. If the top teams completely outplayed us again and again, even Butler wouldn't be able to change that. Seeing that we've been rather competitive in those games, it makes that one spark even more desireable.

That said, I don't expect him to come back any time soon, much less in the shape from earlier in the season. Whether most of our problems were caused by Caron's injury or not is probably impossible to answer. Maybe there are a lot of contributing factors that go way beyond the loss of a single player. I don't know. However, it's interesting that early January seems to be the time when things started to get considerably worse, especially when it comes to beating quality opponents.

sorry for my english

yes,with butler maybe we win some games before 4th quarter.it's possible because caron is a very good and smart player for us...but with NO,Portland,Denver,Memphis,lakers and spurs we played a closed game.we lost those game late in the 4th quarter where caron wouldn't has played.
i think if we are good for a run to title we could win those games without him.

[Luc]

We have done better without him than I expected. We just kinda lost our mojo the last few games.

[deamon]

Originally Posted by JHT

I really don't think this team was any better than Butler. Think about what we saw against the Spurs. It looked exactly like the team we saw against the Spurs in the playoffs last year, and that team had Butler.

Were Butler here now, I suspect we'd still be seeing the same thing. Maybe we'd get a little less three guard lineup, but the end result probably wouldn't be any different.

You forgot Butler acclimated in Mavs just last December. So you can't say December Mavs were the same as last play offs.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

The defensive drop-off that's resulted from that evolution of the rotation is real, but it has nothing to do with Caron being absent from the rotation, and depending on how Booby progresses over the remainder of the season it's not even necessarily a bad thing.

This is contradictory. The rotation certainly would have "evolved" differently if Caron was healthy. He was playing ~30 minutes a game (and starting) at one of the two positions that's seen the most uncertainty and volatility (2 and 3). And those two positions are often somewhat interchangeable on our team, so to say the evolution has "nothing to do" with Caron going out....

And honestly, the rest of your post seems to disregard the realities of the situation. You say you don't like what Stevenson brings at SF--yeah, and he wouldn 't be playing SF if Butler was healthy. You say Roddy subbing in for DeShawn is a big part of the defensive loss there. Okay, even if we accept that as true, Roddy didn't come back until mid-February. The Mavs defense saw a significant dropoff starting in early-to-mid January. Cross reference some of j0shi's stuff with what you're saying. And even if you're right that the Mavs set a good defensive tone with Marion in the starting lineup, Marion doesn't play 48 minutes at the 3.

It seems like people are going to pretty great lengths to say losing Butler doesn't really matter. Frankly, the guy gets an unfair rap for not being the most efficient player on the team. He's a good player. Whether you think he's the second best or the fourth or fifth best on the squad, he's undeniably a good player. To intimate that it may not really hurt to lose him....well, it just doesn't make a lot of sense.

[mavsfan1000]

Originally Posted by JHT

I really don't think this team was any better than Butler. Think about what we saw against the Spurs. It looked exactly like the team we saw against the Spurs in the playoffs last year, and that team had Butler.

Were Butler here now, I suspect we'd still be seeing the same thing. Maybe we'd get a little less three guard lineup, but the end result probably wouldn't be any different.

You think we are equally good with having Stevenson, Brewer, Cardinal, and Kidd at the 3 occasionally compared with Butler? Marion is also expected to play some minutes at the 4 so almost half the minutes at the 3 are on some crappy player rather than Butler.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

This is contradictory. The rotation certainly would have "evolved" differently if Caron was healthy. He was playing ~30 minutes a game (and starting) at one of the two positions that's seen the most uncertainty and volatility (2 and 3). And those two positions are often somewhat interchangeable on our team, so to say the evolution has "nothing to do" with Caron going out....

That's a matter of opinion, and mine differs from yours. Healthy Caron or no, I think Booby was always going to be given a shot at that starting spot in the backcourt.

And honestly, the rest of your post seems to disregard the realities of the situation. You say you don't like what Stevenson brings at SF--yeah, and he wouldn 't be playing SF if Butler was healthy.

You misunderstand me. My point in stating my lack of affection for DeShawn as a SF was merely intended as a preemptive response to the potential counter-argument (which I gather you're not inclined to make) that DeShawn has seen a bit of an uptick in playing time (at SF) over the last few games, and the defense doesn't seem to have benefitted much.

You say Roddy subbing in for DeShawn is a big part of the defensive loss there. Okay, even if we accept that as true, Roddy didn't come back until mid-February. The Mavs defense saw a significant dropoff starting in early-to-mid January.

I don't care about January (when they were also without Dirk or relying on a one-legged Dirk), and I'm less obsessed with defense than you are. What I am interested in is whether the team can compete well enough on both ends of the court to have success in the playoffs. With respect to that, I'm not denying that there are reasons for concern. I'm just saying: 1) the jury's still out on what the back end (or front end if Marion keeps coming off the bench) of the rotation at SF is going to look like in the playoffs, so it's really to early to draw firm conclusions about what the resulting strengths and weaknesses are going to be, and 2) when the entire argument is framed according to the axiom 'Winning = Defense = Caron', things are going to seem dire. I'm less fatalistic in large part because I reject the axiom.

And even if you're right that the Mavs set a good defensive tone with Marion in the starting lineup, Marion doesn't play 48 minutes at the 3.

I spoke directly to this point in my earlier post and I agree with you. Depth at SF is currently - hopefully not permanently, but who knows - a major problem...again.

It seems like people are going to pretty great lengths to say losing Butler doesn't really matter. Frankly, the guy gets an unfair rap for not being the most efficient player on the team. He's a good player. Whether you think he's the second best or the fourth or fifth best on the squad, he's undeniably a good player. To intimate that it may not really hurt to lose him....well, it just doesn't make a lot of sense.

It's not been my intention to make that sort of claim, and even if my overall tone has been somewhat antithetical to the tenor of your argument, I did state directly and unequivocally that Dallas would be at another level with a healthy Caron and Booby and a living, breathing Haywood. My argument, though I've perhaps not so transparently spelled it out in my earlier posts, is that I don't feel that it's out of the question that Dallas end-of-the-season team could be as good as it's start-of-the-season team, even if neither will be as good as the team that Dallas would have been able to field this season if injuries hadn't intervened.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

That's a matter of opinion, and mine differs from yours. Healthy Caron or no, I think Booby was always going to be given a shot at that starting spot in the backcourt.

He definitely was, but I'm not sure how that affects what I'm saying. The current 2/3 rotation is obviously different than what it would have been with Butler. There's no way he wasn't going to play 25+ mpg in the playoffs. That by itself tells you the rotation would have evolved differently. I don't see how it's a matter of opinion at all, unless your opinion is that he was somehow going to become a non-factor in the rotation? (And I really doubt you think that.)

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I don't care about January (when they were also without Dirk or relying on a one-legged Dirk), and I'm less obsessed with defense than you are. What I am interested in is whether the team can compete well enough on both ends of the court to have success in the playoffs. With respect to that, I'm not denying that there are reasons for concern. I'm just saying: 1) the jury's still out on what the back end (or front end if Marion keeps coming off the bench) of the rotation at SF is going to look like in the playoffs, so it's really to early to draw firm conclusions about what the resulting strengths and weaknesses are going to be, and 2) when the entire argument is framed according to the axiom 'Winning = Defense = Caron', things are going to seem dire. I'm less fatalistic in large part because I reject the axiom.

All I can tell you is that the defense was very good while Caron was healthy, and has been somewhere from mediocre to bad for probably 80-90% of the games since he went out. Maybe that's a coincidence, but I doubt it.

And I think it's a bit weird to say I'm "obsessed" with something that constitutes half of basketball and something the Mavs haven't been good at for 2.5 months. It's not like I'm that guy who comes in and posts only about some minor issue like Jason Kidd's minutes.

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

It's not been my intention to make that sort of claim, and even if my overall tone has been somewhat antithetical to the tenor of your argument, I did state directly and unequivocally that Dallas would be at another level with a healthy Caron and Booby and a living, breathing Haywood. My argument, though I've perhaps not so transparently spelled it out in my earlier posts, is that I don't feel that it's out of the question that Dallas end-of-the-season team could be as good as it's start-of-the-season team, even if neither will be as good as the team that Dallas would have been able to field this season if injuries hadn't intervened.

That's certainly possible, but at this point we sure haven't seen much to indicate that's what's going to happen. They are utterly incapable of guarding elbow screen-and-rolls executed by good guards. Their defense to that play is effectively, "Hope Chandler can affect the shot" or "Hope the other team misses the open shot." They've got to figure out something else.

[dalger]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

It's not been my intention to make that sort of claim, and even if my overall tone has been somewhat antithetical to the tenor of your argument, I did state directly and unequivocally that Dallas would be at another level with a healthy Caron and Booby and a living, breathing Haywood. My argument, though I've perhaps not so transparently spelled it out in my earlier posts, is that I don't feel that it's out of the question that Dallas end-of-the-season team could be as good as it's start-of-the-season team, even if neither will be as good as the team that Dallas would have been able to field this season if injuries hadn't intervened.

It seems like we have somewhat come full circle. Yes, we won't be as good without Butler as we could be with him. No, the actual difference is impossible to measure. Some of it will indeed have to do with guys like Roddy and Haywood, maybe even Peja and Brewer. If they could contribute enough to make up for the loss of Caron, we'd still have a chance to be competitive.

I'm afraid that we'll need a great series from many of our guys to compete with the Lakers and Spurs in the playoffs. Beating them is difficult anyway, but a player like Butler, when healthy and productive, would definitely make it easier.

Since we don't have him available (yet), it's pretty useless to include him in our game plan. While we may not be able to replace him with players of the same caliber, we should at least try to find some continuity in the coming weeks. A set rotation and the corresponding chemistry helped us a lot earlier in the season. Said chemistry can be build and lead to more productivity. Our rotations have been quite the mess in recent weeks. Admittedly, some of it had to do with further injuries. Then again, it seems that Carlisle isn't ready to commit himself to certain players and lineups and tries to find something good by making lots of changes.

I think that we'll eventually have to make decisions on players and lineups and just go with it. The promise of making changes throughout the rest of the season isn't too enticing and more the result of weakness than strength.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

He definitely was, but I'm not sure how that affects what I'm saying. The current 2/3 rotation is obviously different than what it would have been with Butler. There's no way he wasn't going to play 25+ mpg in the playoffs. That by itself tells you the rotation would have evolved differently. I don't see how it's a matter of opinion at all, unless your opinion is that he was somehow going to become a non-factor in the rotation? (And I really doubt you think that.)

I'm now confused about who 'he' is. My opinion is that Caron would have been a 26-30 mpg player at SF (he wouldn't be getting minutes at SG with any consistency), and Stevenson would have become a non-factor in the rotation, losing his minutes to Booby. The defense would have suffered on account of the latter part of that, just like it is suffering for it now.

All I can tell you is that the defense was very good while Caron was healthy, and has been somewhere from mediocre to bad for probably 80-90% of the games since he went out. Maybe that's a coincidence, but I doubt it.

I'm not saying it's coincidence. I'm saying Caron's absence is not uniquely deterministic of the defensive drop-off, and that your analysis is only taking half the game into account.

And I think it's a bit weird to say I'm "obsessed" with something that constitutes half of basketball and something the Mavs haven't been good at for 2.5 months. It's not like I'm that guy who comes in and posts only about some minor issue like Jason Kidd's minutes.

You have to admit you've been on it for a while, though. Nonetheless, obsessed is a strong word, an I apologize if my comment seemed to put you in the same class as the Kidd's-minutes guy. You bring much more to the forum than that.

That's certainly possible, but at this point we sure haven't seen much to indicate that's what's going to happen. They are utterly incapable of guarding elbow screen-and-rolls executed by good guards. Their defense to that play is effectively, "Hope Chandler can affect the shot" or "Hope the other team misses the open shot." They've got to figure out something else.

I'm with you on not liking the defense on guards coming off screens. But that's another issue that seems to me to be for the most part unrelated to the debate over how Caron's absence has affected the team. Caron would be spending the majority of his time guarding SFs if he were playing, and they're not the ones doing all the damage.

[Dtownsfinest]

Nevermind....