Your Texas Rangers!: Official 2009 Thread

[Flacolaco]

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

...plastered right on Flaco's forehead.

Once again, I successfully jinxed the other team.

Guardado yelling at the Tiger bench....and their manager yelling the F word on tv....the guy proposing to his girlfriend with the sign and the subsequent phone call....all gold. There was as much gold on the broadcast tonight away from the business of actually playing baseball as there was on the field.

And screw Padilla and screw the flu. I bought tickets for Friday night because it's Millwood starting, and now Padilla might start and push everything back a day? I really don't want to spend money to see Holland. Not yet.

[mkat]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

The results are very near a true #1. Holland hasn't been unlucky. He throws batting fastballs (only faster) far too often and they get hit a long way. He has trouble keeping the ball down when that's his intention.. and he misses towards the middle of the plate far too often with his fastball.

You are very, very full of yourself when it comes to your baseball opinions. You need to ratchet it down a notch.

bfd. it's a message board. that's where opinions go. let's all just lighten up.

[chumdawg]

I don't much subscribe to the idea that any pitcher is "lucky" or "pitching over his head," at least as far as the long haul is concerned. Holland got himself into trouble the other night in the top of the 5th, but that pitch he threw to strike the third guy out was nasty. If you are going to blame him for the trouble he got into, you have to credit him for the way he got out of it.

Bobby Witt used to get himself into and out of trouble all the time. He turned out okay.

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by mkat

bfd. it's a message board. that's where opinions go. let's all just lighten up.

I think you're taking my comments a little too seriously.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

Once again, I successfully jinxed the other team.

Guardado yelling at the Tiger bench....and their manager yelling the F word on tv....the guy proposing to his girlfriend with the sign and the subsequent phone call....all gold. There was as much gold on the broadcast tonight away from the business of actually playing baseball as there was on the field.

And screw Padilla and screw the flu. I bought tickets for Friday night because it's Millwood starting, and now Padilla might start and push everything back a day? I really don't want to spend money to see Holland. Not yet.

Why not? Holland is going better than Millwood is. But regardless, you can expect a well played game of baseball no matter what Ranger pitcher takes the mound.

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

The results are very near a true #1. Holland hasn't been unlucky. He throws batting fastballs (only faster) far too often and they get hit a long way. He has trouble keeping the ball down when that's his intention.. and he misses towards the middle of the plate far too often with his fastball.

You are very, very full of yourself when it comes to your baseball opinions. You need to ratchet it down a notch.

I could not agree more with that last sentence, but I must add... Coming from you, that brings forth the following vision:

[Flacolaco]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Why not? Holland is going better than Millwood is. But regardless, you can expect a well played game of baseball no matter what Ranger pitcher takes the mound.

I'm not a big enough baseball fan to be looking towards what the 22 year old, not so young man might be some day.

All I know is that every time I turn the tv on and see Holland, I end up disappointed. It's logical that if I drive all the way to Arlington and pay for parking and drag my pregnant wife in there, and then I see Holland, my disappointment will be proportionally larger.

Again, not much of a baseball fan. I am however, a fan of winning.

[Flacolaco]

Thanks Indians. That's great.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

I'm not a big enough baseball fan to be looking towards what the 22 year old, not so young man might be some day.

All I know is that every time I turn the tv on and see Holland, I end up disappointed. It's logical that if I drive all the way to Arlington and pay for parking and drag my pregnant wife in there, and then I see Holland, my disappointment will be proportionally larger.

Again, not much of a baseball fan. I am however, a fan of winning.

Sorry, I was thinking it was *Hunter* who you meant. I think I would rather Hunter pitch than Milwood. Holland...you can take it or leave it.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

The results are very near a true #1. Holland hasn't been unlucky. He throws batting fastballs (only faster) far too often and they get hit a long way. He has trouble keeping the ball down when that's his intention.. and he misses towards the middle of the plate far too often with his fastball.

You are very, very full of yourself when it comes to your baseball opinions. You need to ratchet it down a notch.

my opinions are my opinions. I supposed i could throw in my opinion in front of everything I say but its a message board so I kinda figured everyone got that. Aside from that im right. Millwoods component numbers arent good. When Allen Iverson gets hot for a week and averages 50% shooting, it doesnt make him a 50% shooter. Millwood being VERY fortunate on BABIP and strand rates doesnt make him an ace.

The last time i backed off of an opinion of mine because it disagreed with everyoned else heres opinion was when i said barry zito wasnt an ace BEFORE he got this contract. I backed off cus everyone else threw a fit and i didnt feel like arguing it at that point. That said ive taken quite alot of other stances that were contrary to common thought.(Reggie bush wasnt going to be good in the nfl which i said before he was drafted, Greg Oden was simply Erick Dampier with hands which i said before he was drafted, Anthony Fasano couldnt block and it didnt really matter what Big Bill said) Look Im not trying to say Im always right. Im not. But I do watch alot of sports and to be perfectly honest I value my opinion of sports higher than I value yours especially when it comes to baseball.

As for arguing that Holland hasnt been unlucky or Millwood has lets look at a few Numbers,

Pitcher A
7.04 k/9 3.13 bb/9 1.24 gb/fb 20.0% LD percentage.

Pitcher B
5.48 K/9 2.93 bb/9 1.16 gb/fb 19.9% LD percentage. Im adding LD percentage in there just so it cant be argued that MIlly is giving up a bunch of softly hit balls while Holland is getting hammered. Three things a pitcher can control are how many people they strike out, how many people they walk and how much they keep the ball on the ground. Aside from that its pretty much a matter of luck. Pitcher A strikes out more batters while walking a similar(though admittedly higher amount) and gets a similar amount of ground balls. Where has millwood been so much better than Holland this season? BABIP, Strand rate and HR/fb.

Millwood has a 272 Babip, a 79.8 percent strand rate, and a 10.4 percent hr/fb.
Holland has a 348 Babip, a 66.5 percent strand rate, and a 15.9 percent hr/fb.

The first two have absolutely nothing to do with the pitchers. Its purely a matter of luck. The Hr/fb rate should be better for Millwood because a higher percentage of his FBs are infield fly balls which clearly arent going to be home runs. That said Millwood hasnt been signifigantly better than Holland this season aside from throwing a ton more innings.

The funny thing is, Im not even a pure sabermatrician. I think BA is ALOT more important than most sabermatricians do and I dont completely believe in the defensive numbers we have available yet. That said despite Millwoods era he hasnt been anything close to a true ace this year.

[mavspwnage]

On the bright side the Red Sox lost, so our win didn't go un-rewarded. Only 1.5 games back of them now. Keep it up Rangers!!

[jthig32]

The idea that Batting Average on Ball In Play has *nothing* to do with the pitcher is ridiculous, and even the most ardent sabrematrician will rarely make that claim so flippantly and boldly. Common sense dictates that a pitcher serving up batting practice is going to have a high BABiP because people are smashing line drives all over the place.

I do agree with 5-0's overall view on Millwood. There's too many defensive-independent metrics saying the same thing on him. He's pitching well, but the improved defense and strand rate are boosting his numbers above what should be. As Bill James says: "A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.". People are going round and round trying to figure out how the pitching has transformed this season. And it is way, way better, that is obvious. Mike Maddux has had a huge impact. But you can not ignore the defense, which is most likely THE single biggest reason for the drastic uptick in pitching quality.

[Murphy3]

When component numbers don't match up with results, that still doesn't change the results. Some people read way too much into some of the newer stats. BABIP is one stat that is commonly misused by many people. All balls put in play are not created equal.

My point is that his results are similar to that of an ace this year. And one of the most important statistics is ERA. His ERA is solid. He comes up big when it's needed. I have never claimed that he has the stuff of the ace. I don't believe that in the slightest. When it comes to stuff, Millwood ranks a down the list of Rangers pitchers.

I know that his STRAND rate is superb compared to what some might expect. However, that just says that probably came up with some big pitches and got some big outs when he was in trouble. Sabermatricians often fall in love with stats while not looking at results. I understand that some of his peripherals are not indicative of a player that has produced the RESULTS that he has this year. I understand that he could slip a bit in the second half. But regardless, it doesn't change the fact that his ERA, innings pitched, and quality starts are indicative of a guy that has been something close to an ace.

Sure, some of the more commonly used stats might not match up with some of the peripherals. But who gives a damn? Really? The peripherals are good for projections.. So, perhaps Millwood's peripherals don't make it likely that he'll have the same success next year. Or perhaps his peripherals at this moment wouldn't make him a top prospect if he were 23 years old. But the fact is that he does strand alot of runners. The fact is that he doesn't give up alot of runs. Sure, some of it is due to defense, but most of it is due to a guy that has somehow managed to throw big pitches when he's allowed runners on base. Perhaps Bill James has difficulty quantifying that, but sometimes Bill James can shove it up his ass.

[jthig32]

Why does it anger you to give the credit to the defense? The defense is markedly improved, and so is the pitching across the board. Coincidence? Of course not.

A lot of it is due to defense. And the rest of the improvement is Millwood pitching better and being better prepared.

As far as the strand rate..whether it's luck or whether it's Millwood "ratcheting it up", the reality is that it's very unlikely to last at the level it's at, and when it normalizes Millwood's results will come closer to matching his other peripherals. I think that's the bottom line on that.

No one is denying that the results are that of an ace. At least I'm not. But I don't understand what's wrong with trying to drill deeper and have a better understanding of what's going into those results. I'm personally not trying to take anything away from Millwood. I love the guy.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by jthig32

The idea that Batting Average on Ball In Play has *nothing* to do with the pitcher is ridiculous, and even the most ardent sabrematrician will rarely make that claim so flippantly and boldly. Common sense dictates that a pitcher serving up batting practice is going to have a high BABiP because people are smashing line drives all over the place.

I do agree with 5-0's overall view on Millwood. There's too many defensive-independent metrics saying the same thing on him. He's pitching well, but the improved defense and strand rate are boosting his numbers above what should be. As Bill James says: "A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.". People are going round and round trying to figure out how the pitching has transformed this season. And it is way, way better, that is obvious. Mike Maddux has had a huge impact. But you can not ignore the defense, which is most likely THE single biggest reason for the drastic uptick in pitching quality.

Nothing to do with the pitcher was slightly exaggerating it. The pitcher does have something to do with it(much like a hitter it has to do with their line drive rate)

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

When component numbers don't match up with results, that still doesn't change the results. Some people read way too much into some of the newer stats. BABIP is one stat that is commonly misused by many people. All balls put in play are not created equal.

My point is that his results are similar to that of an ace this year. And one of the most important statistics is ERA. His ERA is solid. He comes up big when it's needed. I have never claimed that he has the stuff of the ace. I don't believe that in the slightest. When it comes to stuff, Millwood ranks a down the list of Rangers pitchers.

I know that his STRAND rate is superb compared to what some might expect. However, that just says that probably came up with some big pitches and got some big outs when he was in trouble. Sabermatricians often fall in love with stats while not looking at results. I understand that some of his peripherals are not indicative of a player that has produced the RESULTS that he has this year. I understand that he could slip a bit in the second half. But regardless, it doesn't change the fact that his ERA, innings pitched, and quality starts are indicative of a guy that has been something close to an ace.

Sure, some of the more commonly used stats might not match up with some of the peripherals. But who gives a damn? Really? The peripherals are good for projections.. So, perhaps Millwood's peripherals don't make it likely that he'll have the same success next year. Or perhaps his peripherals at this moment wouldn't make him a top prospect if he were 23 years old. But the fact is that he does strand alot of runners. The fact is that he doesn't give up alot of runs. Sure, some of it is due to defense, but most of it is due to a guy that has somehow managed to throw big pitches when he's allowed runners on base. Perhaps Bill James has difficulty quantifying that, but sometimes Bill James can shove it up his ass.

You know the only other time in his career Millwoods had a strand rate like this? The year he pitched for cleveland and won the ERA title. Greg Maddux had consecutive years in his prime with a strand rate that fluxuated over ten percent from one year to the next.(Im using a legit ace to point out that it cant really be controlled) Im willing to bet that to a certain extent it could be controlled due to a variety of factors, most notably that some pitchers pitch better out of the stretch than others. Really if you wanna give someone credit for Millwood being an ace though, give it to Elvis Andrus and Ian kinsler who have been the best defensive middle infield in the AL.

[Kirobaito]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

You know the only other time in his career Millwoods had a strand rate like this? The year he pitched for cleveland and won the ERA title. Greg Maddux had consecutive years in his prime with a strand rate that fluxuated over ten percent from one year to the next.(Im using a legit ace to point out that it cant really be controlled) Im willing to bet that to a certain extent it could be controlled due to a variety of factors, most notably that some pitchers pitch better out of the stretch than others. Really if you wanna give someone credit for Millwood being an ace though, give it to Elvis Andrus and Ian kinsler who have been the best defensive middle infield in the AL.

As well as Blalock and Davis, both of whom improved their first-base defense drastically from last year.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by Kirobaito

As well as Blalock and Davis, both of whom improved their first-base defense drastically from last year.

oh theres a ton of reasons for the defensive improvement, Hamilton has been much better in center, Murphy has gone from terrible to slightly below average in left, Young is just terrible and not All time god awful worst 3rd basemen ever like the total of all the 3b we played last year added up to.

[Murphy3]

Who says that I won't give credit to the defense? The defense has been much better. I know that. What I'm saying is you guys are looking at the peripherals and ignoring what's punching you in the face. I KNOW that Millwood isn't likely to continue through his entire career with this ERA especially when he's allowing runners to get on base. What I am saying is that he HAS stranded the runners and has a low ERA and HAS pitched alot of innings and HAS come up big for this team when it has needed a win therefore he IS close to being a true ace this year regardless of his peripherals.

Peripherals are great. But in the end, who really gives a damn? Peripherals are great for looking at future success. But the past is what it is regardless of the peripherals. If Millwood managed to win 20 games with a 1.4 WHIP but somehow managed to have a low ERA while throwing 220 innings.. then who gives a damn what the peripherals are? I understand looking at some of the secondary statistics. But regardless of what those statistics say, the most important numbers are what they are. And trust me.. the batting average against or BABIP or strands or anything else is much less important in the end when looking at what someone has already done than statistics such as ERA or park adjusted ERA or wins and losses.. or innings pitched.

Many of the peripheral statistics in use are great for predicting whether or not a pitcher can duplicate the success that he has had. They are great to use with younger guys. But they don't take away from what a guy like Millwood has done this year. Who cares whether or not he's escaped by the skin of his teeth a few times? Does that make his production this year any less valuable? No, not at all. Perhaps it indicates that we shouldn't expect the exact same results next year. I know that. Everyone knows that. But what I'm talking about is his production this year. And you guys are misusing statistics.

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

oh theres a ton of reasons for the defensive improvement, Hamilton has been much better in center, Murphy has gone from terrible to slightly below average in left, Young is just terrible and not All time god awful worst 3rd basemen ever like the total of all the 3b we played last year added up to.

Your comment about Murphy being terrible in left last year is idiotic.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Who says that I won't give credit to the defense? The defense has been much better. I know that. What I'm saying is you guys are looking at the peripherals and ignoring what's punching you in the face. I KNOW that Millwood isn't likely to continue through his entire career with this ERA especially when he's allowing runners to get on base. What I am saying is that he HAS stranded the runners and has a low ERA and HAS pitched alot of innings and HAS come up big for this team when it has needed a win therefore he IS close to being a true ace this year regardless of his peripherals.

Peripherals are great. But in the end, who really gives a damn? Peripherals are great for looking at future success. But the past is what it is regardless of the peripherals. If Millwood managed to win 20 games with a 1.4 WHIP but somehow managed to have a low ERA while throwing 220 innings.. then who gives a damn what the peripherals are? I understand looking at some of the secondary statistics. But regardless of what those statistics say, the most important numbers are what they are. And trust me.. the batting average against or BABIP or strands or anything else is much less important in the end when looking at what someone has already done than statistics such as ERA or park adjusted ERA or wins and losses.. or innings pitched.

Many of the peripheral statistics in use are great for predicting whether or not a pitcher can duplicate the success that he has had. They are great to use with younger guys. But they don't take away from what a guy like Millwood has done this year. Who cares whether or not he's escaped by the skin of his teeth a few times? Does that make his production this year any less valuable? No, not at all. Perhaps it indicates that we shouldn't expect the exact same results next year. I know that. Everyone knows that. But what I'm talking about is his production this year. And you guys are misusing statistics.

But what's punching us in the face is incorrect. That's the point of peripherals. The reality is Millwood hasn't been THAT much better than last season. He's been better, but not as much better as you would think given his base numbers.

What has been much, much better is the defense.

Now, does that matter? In the end all the matters is whether the Rangers win. But if you're discussing how good a pitcher Millwood has been this season then yeah, those peripherals matter.

If all you care about is results then I assume also ignore factors like home ballpark and league the pitcher is pitching in when comparing one pitcher against another?

I am far, far from a full on sabrematrician. I'm very, very cynical on stats like BABiP that a lot of people seem to be leaning heavily on. And I think metrics the project win totals are a complete joke. But there are some defensive-independent pitching peripherals that seem pretty reliable.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Your comment about Murphy being terrible in left last year is idiotic.

You are correct, he was good in the corners last year and terrible in center. Also hes actually gotten worse this year than last year.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Who says that I won't give credit to the defense? The defense has been much better. I know that. What I'm saying is you guys are looking at the peripherals and ignoring what's punching you in the face. I KNOW that Millwood isn't likely to continue through his entire career with this ERA especially when he's allowing runners to get on base. What I am saying is that he HAS stranded the runners and has a low ERA and HAS pitched alot of innings and HAS come up big for this team when it has needed a win therefore he IS close to being a true ace this year regardless of his peripherals.

Peripherals are great. But in the end, who really gives a damn? Peripherals are great for looking at future success. But the past is what it is regardless of the peripherals. If Millwood managed to win 20 games with a 1.4 WHIP but somehow managed to have a low ERA while throwing 220 innings.. then who gives a damn what the peripherals are? I understand looking at some of the secondary statistics. But regardless of what those statistics say, the most important numbers are what they are. And trust me.. the batting average against or BABIP or strands or anything else is much less important in the end when looking at what someone has already done than statistics such as ERA or park adjusted ERA or wins and losses.. or innings pitched.

Many of the peripheral statistics in use are great for predicting whether or not a pitcher can duplicate the success that he has had. They are great to use with younger guys. But they don't take away from what a guy like Millwood has done this year. Who cares whether or not he's escaped by the skin of his teeth a few times? Does that make his production this year any less valuable? No, not at all. Perhaps it indicates that we shouldn't expect the exact same results next year. I know that. Everyone knows that. But what I'm talking about is his production this year. And you guys are misusing statistics.

You just dont get it and you wont listen. Thats fine, your welcome to your opinion and i like millwood so i dont mind him getting more credit than he deserves.

[Flacolaco]

That's cool, Rangers. Anaheim probably lost today anyway, they're not very good. So you have plenty of time to dick around and pitch like chicks. I bet the Angels didn't score 9 runs today or anything.

[jthig32]

It's probably a good thing you don't like baseball much. I don't think you're cut out for a 162 game season.

[Flacolaco]

Probably not.

Come on...this is me getting into it!

[jthig32]

Well that's good. But you can't really get angry about a game like this after the way the Rangers and Feldman have been rolling.

It's a looooong season.

[Flacolaco]

I know. It's the Angels more than the Rangers that are frustrating. The Rangers are playing great. I just cant get over how near perfect the Angels have been.

[mavspwnage]

Holland, wow...he has allowed just one hit through 6 innings. He's at 73 pitches so maybe he has a chance to take it all the way. He's beasting tonight. I guess he knows there's a Blue Jays scout in attendance...

[alexamenos]

geez....Holland is mowing 'em down. That one hit was a weak bloop....

[Kirobaito]

I know that it's meaningless in the long run, but I sure as heck hated to see Madrigal with responsibility of Holland's runners.

[tcat075]

I will never forgive Jon Daniels if he trades Holland for Halladay. Not now. You cannot trade him now.

Dutch-boy was an inning and a weakly hit ground ball away from perfection. That was ridiculous. I hope every Ranger fan now understand why this kid had so much hype coming up out of the minors.

What a game.

[Flacolaco]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

All I know is that every time I turn the tv on and see Holland, I end up disappointed. It's logical that if I drive all the way to Arlington and pay for parking and drag my pregnant wife in there, and then I see Holland, my disappointment will be proportionally larger.

lol...I am just on fire this week.

I bet we show up tomorrow and Millwood pitches 1 and a third and gets pulled. Because the universe hates me.

[dalmations202]

That was one heck of a game last night. Too much fun. Best seats I have ever had at a game, and Holland goes out and throws that GEM. Ranger bats were smoking. I really need to get to more games. It seems like the Rangers kick off nearly every time I do. I have seen Kenny Rogers perfect game (only game I got to that year), and several other strange games -- it always seems to happen when I am there.

That freakish broken bat single really screwed up his perfect game, but WOW.

Wash was booed big time when he pulled the kid.

Just a FYI, Ichiro is smoking fast in real life, not just on TV. (I know --- most of you have probably seen him in real life before, but I was amazed at his speed up close last night).

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

You just dont get it and you wont listen. Thats fine, your welcome to your opinion and i like millwood so i dont mind him getting more credit than he deserves.

Yes, I do get it. You're the one that's mistaking peripherals for actual results. How is saying that he has pitched like a near ace giving him more credit than he deserves? The peripherals have not matched the results for Millwood. That does not mean that his peripherals will be more indicative of his results next year.. but that is not the case this year.. and that is the bottom line. I'm not saying that Millwood's ERA couldn't easliy be a half run higher, but it's not. That is the bottom line. And until you actually understand how to look at statistics and understand how to use them, you will never get that. You have fallen in love with something that you just don't know how to use.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Yes, I do get it. You're the one that's mistaking peripherals for actual results. How is saying that he has pitched like a near ace giving him more credit than he deserves? The peripherals have not matched the results for Millwood. That does not mean that his peripherals will be more indicative of his results next year.. but that is not the case this year.. and that is the bottom line. I'm not saying that Millwood's ERA couldn't easliy be a half run higher, but it's not. That is the bottom line. And until you actually understand how to look at statistics and understand how to use them, you will never get that. You have fallen in love with something that you just don't know how to use.

The problem is you dont get that peripherals are results too. ERA and innings pitched arent the only results there are. Let me ask you a question, if a pitcher throws a fastball right down the middle and it gets drilled directly to the left fielder has he done a better job then a pitcher who throws a fastball down the middle that gets drilled to the gap? Obviously Millwoods been better this year than last year but he hasnt been an ace.

[Flacolaco]

Well, that was a pretty good baseball game until we had to make a bee line for the exit and then haul ass about a mile to the car.

Rangers + Six flags traffic = beating.

[tcat075]

Josh: 0-for-3 and counting...

Angels: Up 11-6 and counting...

Good to know there are some constants in this world.

[jthig32]

Feliz has received the call.....

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by jthig32

Feliz has received the call.....

which should make your ranger pants very excited.