Official offseason 2013-2014 thread

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

There are only two smart metrics for measuring our drafting skill i

1) to compare historical odds at the position to how we did (we did better than average, and top 10 in the league since 2000). It's very different to draft 28th where your have about a 90% failure rate and succeed/fail than it is to say, draft 15th where your odds of failure are only 45%. You simply cannot compare teams without looking at the position they had and the odds of those picks working out.

2) to actually look at the draft history and see how many players were available. After Faried went, there was nothing in 2011. There may not be a single guy that works out after him. Hamilton is trash and then there is a list of a 30+ other guys that will never get contracts or will wash out after their first ones. When you actually pull up the draft results, it makes it even more clear that the guys like Gasol are total outliers. Dude is an allstar, but 30 teams passed on him and 17 teams passed on him TWICE.

What? 2011 later than 22 which are getting solid minutes in the NBA:

Reggie Jackon 24th OKC
Norris Cole 28th Miami via CHI
Jimmy Butler 30th CHI
Chandler Parsons 38th Houston
Lavoy Allen 50th Philly
E'Twaun Moore 55th BOS
Isaiah Thomas 60th SAC

So of the 38 players picked after Faried, 7 are are contributing significant minutes on an NBA team. That's about a 1 in 5 shot you got a player that year who could actually play after the 22nd pick. Again, I'm not suggesting there's an All Star late in every draft. Pick any year and I'll bet the results are are close to the same. I'm not asking for a late round all star, just someone who can play!

EDIT: Just looked at 2010, not as strong with only 3 of 38 after the 22nd pick playing significantly, but 9 of 38 in 2009, 6 of 38 in 2008...

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I'm not sure he can do it this season and have it come off the cap. They can waive him and re-sign him, but I think that at least 22.7mill will count against next year's cap either way. It may open us up for more flexibility (a second max player) in 2014-2015, though. If agreeing to be waived and re-signed doesn't help our cap situation, he might as well finish t his contract and sign a new one this time next year for 5m/yr or whatever he's willing to take.

Can he do some sort of extension and average the salary? then again that might work against next year...

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

Can he do some sort of extension and average the salary?

Nope, not under the new CBA... You can only negotiate the years being added by the extension, not the ones already agreed upon in the old contract.

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Nope, not under the new CBA... You can only negotiate the years being added to the extension, not the ones already agreed upon in the old contract.

Yes, but couldn't the cap hit be averaged over the extension?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

Yes, but couldn't the cap hit be averaged over the extension?

I have no idea... But Larry Coon does. I don't have time to dig into this right now, but if you do, then let me know what you find (starts around #58).

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I have no idea... But Larry Coon does. I don't have time to dig into this right now, but if you do, then let me know what you find (starts around #58).

Looks like he could extend and renegotiate the extension with a cut no greater than 40% which would be $13.6 mil beginning in 15 season, but next season salary can not be altered. I believe teams can average cap hit over the length of a contract, not sure exactly how that would play out in a extend and renegotiate scenario and that's not detailed (or it snot clear) at that site.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

Looks like he could extend and renegotiate the extension with a cut no greater than 40% which would be $13.6 mil beginning in 15 season, but next season salary can not be altered. I believe teams can average cap hit over the length of a contract, not sure exactly how that would play out in a extend and renegotiate scenario and that's not detailed (or it snot clear) at that site.

Is "2015" a typo? Did u mean 2013?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Is "2015" a typo? Did u mean 2013?

No, he meant 2015 - from my understanding, players can't extend and renegotiate until the 4th year of their contract, which would be '15 in Dirk's case.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

Looks like he could extend and renegotiate the extension with a cut no greater than 40% which would be $13.6 mil beginning in 15 season, but next season salary can not be altered. I believe teams can average cap hit over the length of a contract, not sure exactly how that would play out in a extend and renegotiate scenario and that's not detailed (or it snot clear) at that site.

So basically, no, considering that Dirk's contract expires next year... And even if there were two more years left, the Mavs could probably save more money by letting it expire and re-signing him at a discount than cutting his salary in 40% increments.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by Underdog

No, he meant 2015 - from my understanding, players can't extend and renegotiate until the 4th year of their contract, which would be '15 in Dirk's case.

Isn't it after the 3rd year and before the 4th? That would be this summer- after June 30th. He signed his last contract in July of 2010.

[mac222b]

I read Coon's site and its still not entirely clear to me whether or not Dirk can re-negotiated.

It seems doubtful because there is language in there which states that a player cant take a paycut to clear cap room. In which case, you could only re-negotiate a player upward(unless by "paycut" they mean less than the value remaining(22 million) on the existing contract. That seems unlikely).

If Dirk CAN in fact renegotiate this offseason and make no less than 60%(13million or so) it seems to me it may still be worth it. Especially if Trix exercised his ETO and re-signed for something like 3yrs-16. You would be looking at an extra 13 million in cap room this offseason while retaining Marion.

I don't think any of this is likely. It doesn't seem plausible that a player could re-negotiate that easily, in the case of Dirk. And I doubt Marion opts out. And if he did we would not be able to trade him, which would hinder some flexibility. i.e. no sign and trades including Marion

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by mac222b

I read Coon's site and its still not entirely clear to me whether or not Dirk can re-negotiated.

It seems doubtful because there is language in there which states that a player cant take a paycut to clear cap room. In which case, you could only re-negotiate a player upward(unless by "paycut" they mean less than the value remaining(22 million) on the existing contract. That seems unlikely).

If Dirk CAN in fact renegotiate this offseason and make no less than 60%(13million or so) it seems to me it may still be worth it. Especially if Trix exercised his ETO and re-signed for something like 3yrs-16. You would be looking at an extra 13 million in cap room this offseason while retaining Marion.

I don't think any of this is likely. It doesn't seem plausible that a player could re-negotiate that easily, in the case of Dirk. And I doubt Marion opts out. And if he did we would not be able to trade him, which would hinder some flexibility. i.e. no sign and trades including Marion

This seems fairly clear cut, no?

A renegotiation can only be used to provide a salary increase -- players can't take a "pay cut" in order to create more cap room for the team

[Dirk's Knee]

I meant the 14/15 season. From what I understood, Dirk can extend his contract and renegotiate the terms going forward. However, his 2013/14 salary can not be reduced. Salary beginning in the 2014/15 season can be reduced a max of 40%.

The part I don't entirely know is how this affects the cap. I believe any team can choose to average a players contractual obligations over the years of the contract. I presume you could do that here as well. So if he extended for 3 years at the lowest possible salary and his 13/14 salary was averaged over the term the cab hit this year for him would be ~$16 mil, an extra ~$7 mil of cap space. Or FO could wait to see what we can get in FA and presumable Dirk would end up making ~$10 a year to finish out his career. I don't think the Mavs really need that extra cap this year.

[yahyes]

Anyone keeping up with the NBA combine? I heard Victor Oladipo stood out the best today.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

I meant the 14/15 season. From what I understood, Dirk can extend his contract and renegotiate the terms going forward. However, his 2013/14 salary can not be reduced. Salary beginning in the 2014/15 season can be reduced a max of 40%.

The part I don't entirely know is how this affects the cap. I believe any team can choose to average a players contractual obligations over the years of the contract. I presume you could do that here as well. So if he extended for 3 years at the lowest possible salary and his 13/14 salary was averaged over the term the cab hit this year for him would be ~$16 mil, an extra ~$7 mil of cap space. Or FO could wait to see what we can get in FA and presumable Dirk would end up making ~$10 a year to finish out his career. I don't think the Mavs really need that extra cap this year.

You can't spread out cap hits.

Why are we discussing the extension thing, at this point? The Mavs can let his contract expire and sign him to any contract they want. So what would they gain by extending him now?

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by jthig32

You can't spread out cap hits.

Why are we discussing the extension thing, at this point? The Mavs can let his contract expire and sign him to any contract they want. So what would they gain by extending him now?

A little extra cap right now, but I guess I was wrong on averageing out the cap hit so doesn't matter anyway.

[sefant77]

Maybe worth a gamble if we are able to get Paul and wont have much cap left:

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1357/greg-oden

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Maybe worth a gamble if we are able to get Paul and wont have much cap left:

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1357/greg-oden

Man that's riskier than Bynum. But what a story it would be if he came back and kicked ass. And the franchise who gives him a chance will get all kinds of press...

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Maybe worth a gamble if we are able to get Paul and wont have much cap left:

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1357/greg-oden

Meh... The Greg Oden kool-aid is so outdated that it's nothing but sugar crystals and artificial coloring caked to the bottom of a glass.

[dirt_dobber]

Random tweets from the NBA scouting combine by Chad Ford of ESPN

Top 5 Standing Verticle: Zeller, Larkin, Adonis Thomas, Kadji, Tony Mitchell

Top 5 Lane Agility: Leslie, Snell, Blue, Siva, Caldwell-Pope

Top 5 Sprints. Larkin, Leslie, Caldwell-Pope, Pressey, Blue.

Adonis Thomas. 34.5" standing vert. 40.5 max vert. That's 10!!!! Players with a 40+ inch vert today.

CJ Leslie just recorded a ridiculous 10.19 sec lane agility drill. Top score at Combine and he's 6-9.

Cody Zeller's standing vert of 35.5" was highest ever recorded for player 6-9 or taller in last decade.

Cody Zeller with the fastest sprint time among bigs 3.15 sec

Top NBA 3 point shooter from Thur NBA Draft Combine: Tim Hardaway Jr 19-for-25

[Bayliss]

So what day is the date when the Mavs find out they get the number 1 pick?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Bayliss

So what day is the date when the Mavs find out they get the number 1 pick?

May 21st - Mavs get #1 pick in the draft.
July 1st - Mavs sign Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.

Mark your calender!

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

Man that's riskier than Bynum. But what a story it would be if he came back and kicked ass. And the franchise who gives him a chance will get all kinds of press...

My guess is that Oden would play for 10-20% of Bynums money.

Just then its of course an ok gamble

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by yahyes

Since he'll be in the draft war room. Wonder if he's going to push for a power forward to mentor. Kelly Olynyk or Ryan Kelly.

Ryan Kelly likes that idea...

CHICAGO -- Although the power forward position seems to be an area of weakness in this year’s draft, there could be hidden gems that fall to the right team and fit seamlessly into its system. Duke’s Ryan Kelly believes that could be the case for him if the Dallas Mavericks should decide to call his name in the draft.

Kelly, a 6-foot-11 big man that averaged 12.9 points and 5.3 rebounds as a senior, freely admits that he could see himself fitting right in if added to the Mavericks’ locker room. Patenting his game around some of the best jump-shooting big men in the game, like 11-time All-Star Dirk Nowitzki, Kelly says he and his 42.2 3-point percentage last season could thrive in Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle’s system.

And after working out in front of the Mavs’ brass, Kelly could add depth behind Nowitzki at the 4 spot.

“Well, I certainly think they have a need for bigs with their roster right now, and I certainly feel I can help in that aspect,” Kelly said as he analyzed the Mavs’ position needs. “For me, as a shooting big guy, that’s a commodity I think in the NBA right now. And for anybody, I can help a team by doing it.

“I mean, it creates a lot of spacing,” he added while explaining how his shooting ability could help a team. “And then, when you have guards who can get in the lane, you get open looks. I think I did that for Duke during my career, creating a lot of spacing, and was able to knock down shots and make plays.”

At 228 pounds, Kelly has the size needed to play at the next level. However, with the highest body fat percentage at the combine at 14.8 percent, he will have to impress scouts with his shooting ability and all-around offensive game.

“I think my two elite skills that translate to the NBA are my ability to shoot and pass,” he explained, “and I did those two really well. I can do other things, but those are kind of the things that can really help an offense.”

link

[Bayliss]

That's kind of funny. I realize that the two major draft sites aren't always right but they have Kelly being a late second rounder and compared to Fazekas.

[MavsFTR]

@fishsports: “@garza4141: @fishsports http://t.co/C3vpreF19l

@mCuban getting in on some early summer Chris Paul recruiting?” / wowsers! #mavs

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by MavsFTR

@fishsports: “@garza4141: @fishsports http://t.co/C3vpreF19l

@mCuban getting in on some early summer Chris Paul recruiting?” / wowsers! #mavs

It's all a precursor to the inevitable. CP3 to Dallas.

[yahyes]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Ryan Kelly likes that idea...

Speaking of Ryan Kelly. The Mavs look to have shown public interest in him. Second round pick guy he could be.

[yahyes]

Seeing him and Chris Paul talk is something Cuban never did with Deron Williams. Could be a good sign for July.

[clutch#41]

Cuban "Hey chris what drink you on"
Chris"im on my 2nd"
Cuban"im on my 5th lightweight! ahahaa"
Tiger" Cuban is wasted"

[Scott McGuire]

I don't know if it's been suggested already, but I could see a trade with Cleveland happening on draft night.

I think the Mav's #13 and #44 for Cleveland's #19, #31 & #33 could make a ton of sense for both teams.

Our cap figure goes a little lower for free agency (since 2nd rounders don't count until signed) and we fill out our bench a bit. Cleve already has the #3 (or whatever it becomes in a few days) and would probably prefer the #13 to the #19 by enough to give up the #1 and #3 picks of the 2nd round.

I think a trade like this with Cleveland has a huge chance of happening if the guy we want at #13 is likely to be there at #19. Plus we have last year's draft trade history with Cleveland.

I could also see us doing it if all the guys we really like are gone by #13. Those multiple early 2nd rounders are very intriguing and are good bets to outperform their contracts.

[Thomas86]

Originally Posted by clutch#41

Cuban "Hey chris what drink you on"
Chris"im on my 2nd"
Cuban"im on my 5th lightweight! ahahaa"
Tiger" Cuban is wasted"

That's what I hope they where talking about...I don't want the NBA trying to hit the Mavs with B.S. tampering rule because they will do it.

[spreedom]

Yeah umm, I really hope that whatever brought those two together was an organized event that both were invited to that Cuban also cleared with the NBA. If it turns out Cubes just ran into Paul in Vegas or whatever and kept hanging out with him that's probably a huge rules violation of some kind.

[jthig32]

I think we can all safely assume that Cuban knows the anti-tampering rules much better than we do and not worry about it.

[Melonhead]

http://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articl...ckets/13651324

Not the right Texas team.

[The_Ghost]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

http://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articl...ckets/13651324

Not the right Texas team.

That article forgot Dallas as well. Here's SB Nations's article:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/1...kets-mavericks

[rabbitproof]

If the Texas teams REALLY do have a shot (...), it will come down to Harden vs Dirk.

Dirk has the resume but Harden might be the better long-term teammate. Not sure, could go back to wanting to be the lead dog sort of thing.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by rabbitproof

If the Texas teams REALLY do have a shot (...), it will come down to Harden vs Dirk.

Dirk has the resume but Harden might be the better long-term teammate. Not sure, could go back to wanting to be the lead dog sort of thing.

Dirk vs. Harden only matters until Dirk comes off the books... Cuban/Nelson vs. Alexander/Morey is what matters when it comes to Dwight's chances of winning a ring in the next 4 years.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by The_Ghost

That article forgot Dallas as well. Here's SB Nations's article:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/1...kets-mavericks

I like your article better

[LonghornDub]

Steve Kyler said earlier that CP3 has told other players he's returning to the Clippers. Clearly, Steve Kyler hasn't heard:

CP3 to Dallas. And the bird is the word.

[The_Ghost]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

I like your article better

Thanks!