7-3: Mavs withstand Pistons, continue winning ways at Auburn Hills

[kg_veteran]

Originally Posted by Dirkenstien

Roddy needs more minutes. Robo > JJB.

Period.

When Beaubois gets some seasoning to go with those skills, he is definitely going to be fun to watch. Heck, he's a lot of fun to watch now.

[alexamenos]

Originally Posted by kg_veteran

Still, they were a +3 in the 4th quarter last night, so I wouldn't use that as an example to try and advance the argument.

They also scored 31 points and were a plus 11 in the third quarter without running the three guard line up....

....and they were playing a Prince-less and Hamilton-less team that was running a 3 guard line-up itself for much of the 4th. If we agree that the marginal offensive boost isn't enough to make up for the defensive and rebounding defeciencies of a 3 guard line-up, then it seems reasonable to say that the Mavs had a chance to extend a lead by more than 3.

Instead of extending a lead....we were one Ben Gordon 3 pt shot with a few seconds to play from OT.

That plus 3 last night down the stretch is fool's gold.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by alexamenos

I think we've got a pretty good sample size--when things get tight, Carlisle goes to the 3 guard line up. It's what he does. Struggling 'O' or no, it's what he did in crunch time with a lead last night.

I don't get it. Statistically it was one of the worst line ups last year and there's no reason to think it's going to be any better this year.

One of the worst is overstating it. The only two Kidd-Jet-Barea lineups that appear in the most used twenty lineups last season were a -8 and a -1. That's not bad for having at least one bench player in the lineup. There were lineups that got significantly more minutes that were far, far worse.

And your notion that Carlisle goes to it as a crutch is incorrect and backed up by the usage stats. The most used Kidd-Barea-Terry unit from last season was only the 12th most used unit, and that's not a linear list. The top four lineups were used far, far more often than the lineups further down the list.

I'm in KG's camp. I don't bash on the three guard lineup as much as he does, but I'm generally leery of its use (ESPECIALLY last year when used with Bass on the court). But the Mavs are missing a huge piece of their team, are playing good defense, and are having trouble scoring the ball. When Jet is not playing well (and he was awful last night) I have no issue with Carlisle trying to use JJB and the three guard lineup to spark the offense.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Dirkenstien

Roddy needs more minutes. Robo > JJB.

Period.

I really wish this were true. I get all tingly when Roddy is on the court. But he's just not quite ready to be leaned on. He is not a better player than JJB. Not yet.

He will be very soon though.

[SMC0007]

[QUOTE=nowhereman;1040150]

Right, but a lot of that was in the open court or an extra pass after kidd and nowitzki did a lot of work to get the defense scrambling.

Grossly incorrect. Roddy created at least 3 wide open shots that Dirk and kidd missed the shots. He could have had at least 3 more assists and they were all from him breaking the defense down with the dribble. He's not strictly a SG at this point, he sees the floor pretty well in a half court setting.

JJb had a horrible turnover late in the game when he fumbled the ball away driving thru the middle of the entire defense. He does that kind of thing too often and he takes bad shots on a consistent basis. I'm Slowly but surely falling out of love with JJB.

[kg_veteran]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I really wish this were true. I get all tingly when Roddy is on the court. But he's just not quite ready to be leaned on. He is not a better player than JJB. Not yet.

He will be very soon though.

This is the fine line that a guy like Carlisle has to walk. Would Beaubois' development progress more quickly if he were force-fed more minutes? I imagine so. Would the team's W/L be better for it? I don't think so.

Once Beaubois has some seasoning, Barea may very well be relegated to spot duty, but that probably won't happen until at least next year.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by kg_veteran

This is the fine line that a guy like Carlisle has to walk. Would Beaubois' development progress more quickly if he were force-fed more minutes? I imagine so. Would the team's W/L be better for it? I don't think so.

Once Beaubois has some seasoning, Barea may very well be relegated to spot duty, but that probably won't happen until at least next year.

Yep. Pops went through the same process with George Hill last year.

It's obviously very, very early, but if Roddy keeps getting at least some minutes most games, it wouldn't shock me to see Barea traded this off season.

[alexamenos]

Originally Posted by jthig32

One of the worst is overstating it.

I don't think it's over-statings things at all to say it was one of the worst. To be more precise, I might say that it was THE worst line-up among those where Devean George was still on the bench.

And more relevantly, the way to really gauge the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the three guard line ups is to compare JJB + 1 Guard and 1 Forwards to JJB + 2 Guards:

----------------------

Last year, Mavs rolled with JJB, Kidd, Dirk, Damp and one more for a little over 200 minutes. Minutes, +/-, and Win share for Kidd, Barea, Dirk and Damp and:

Wright -- 80 minutes, +13, 75%
George -- 84 minutes, +22, 71.4%
Howard -- 45 minutes, +11, 57.1%
TERRY -- 47 minutes, -8, 45.4% <--three guards is bad

Now check out Barea, Terry, Dirk, Bass and....

Howard -- 52 minutes, +10, 52.6%
George -- 56 minutes, +8, 54.5%
Wright -- 81 minutes, +21, 64%
KIDD -- 63 minutes, -1, 47% <-- three guards is bad!!!


-------------------

Time and time again the Mavs are better off with a forward on the floor along side JJB rather with a 3rd guard. This isn't about Howard being hurt or needing to spell Kidd. This is about a weak line up that Carlisle is in love with.

[kg_veteran]

Originally Posted by jthig32

Yep. Pops went through the same process with George Hill last year.

It's obviously very, very early, but if Roddy keeps getting at least some minutes most games, it wouldn't shock me to see Barea traded this off season.

Me either.

What's interesting about Beaubois is that he has the potential to be an ideal compliment to both Terry and Kidd in a three guard rotation.

[dirt_dobber]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

He had a huge steal in crunch time.

I don't get this irrational hate on JJB. All the kid does is deliver.

agree 100% - JJB is all hustle & heart!
this man is passionate about basketball. He pushes the tempo and is fearless
going to the basket.

[Dirkenstien]

I'd be willing to sacrifice a little bit of W/L if it meant the team being in better position to win a championship come playoff time.

Roddy's skills, length, and speed add a dimension to this team that neither JJB nor anyone else on the roster can match. I think force feeding him the minutes is the right thing to do.

[iella]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Grossly incorrect. Roddy created at least 3 wide open shots that Dirk and kidd missed the shots. He could have had at least 3 more assists and they were all from him breaking the defense down with the dribble. He's not strictly a SG at this point, he sees the floor pretty well in a half court setting.

Agree. Though at this point, it may be just a fluke because teams are so confused by "WHO THE F IS RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS" (a la Pistons fans last night) that they're chasing him around the court and leaving Dirk wide open. Maybe it's comparable to what happens when you take a laser pointer out in the vicinity of a cat. Roddy's speed draws the subconscious attention of the defense, so much so that they drift off their assignment.

There was a similar situation with JJB in years past, if my memory serves. The thing to watch is, once they realize who Roddy is, will they be able to adjust? I hope not.

The other thing is, I think that Roddy's ability to see what's going on has been increasing dramatically in the past few games. I hope it's not just inconsistency, but there were a few times last night when he made an extra pass when many rookies would have held on to the ball, and I also recall a time when he was falling out of bounds but had the presence of mind to find a teammate with the pass.

And on top of that, he can shoot a three AND finish a layup... a combination which seems to elude a certain veteran point guard of ours. In the end, as many people have said, it's still too early. But, as many people have also said, it's so fun to watch and imagine where this kid could go!

[Dirkadirkastan]

A few things I observed from the NBA.com highlight reel:

1) Roddy double dribbles on the fast break to Marion but doesn't get called for it.
2) The Pistons coach puts his hands on his head right before Terry launches the open three.
3) During the same play, Gooden is wandering around out of bounds for no apparent reason.

[nowhereman]

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

A few things I observed from the NBA.com highlight reel:

1) Roddy double dribbles on the fast break to Marion but doesn't get called for it.
2) The Pistons coach puts his hands on his head right before Terry launches the open three.
3) During the same play, Gooden is wandering around out of bounds for no apparent reason.

haha, yes.

1. There was definitely a double dribble on that play, which seems to support the word coming from the Mavs that he really has to improve his handles.

2. Everyone in the league knows Terry is a killer. It's a big part of why Sloan played Dirk 1 on 1 most of the 4th quarter in the Utah game. His ability to space out the court and drain big shots is huge for this team.

3. I vaguely remember Gooden bumbling around on that play, but if I remember correctly, that was a broken play. Either off an offensive rebound or some sort of of loose ball, but I'm not sure.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

3. I vaguely remember Gooden bumbling around on that play, but if I remember correctly, that was a broken play. Either off an offensive rebound or some sort of of loose ball, but I'm not sure.

Stuckey cramped up while taking a shot on the other end, if that's what you mean. He airballed it and the Mavs had numbers... until Gooden kept running through the lane out of bounds and proceeded to punch the goal post. He slowly wandered back in bounds in time for an offensive board if need be.

[kg_veteran]

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

A few things I observed from the NBA.com highlight reel:

1) Roddy double dribbles on the fast break to Marion but doesn't get called for it.

When I watched it in real time, I thought he did, too. When I watched a replay from a different angle, though, I don't think that he did.

And even if he did, the same NBA highlight reel shows Bynum taking at least three steps to get around Dirk and lay it in late in the game.

[badfish22]

If ya'll believe in +/- stats, take a look at this link. Look what lineup is number 1 in the league

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusmi...&split=9&team=

Thats who should finish games, not this 3 guard bull shit (of course last night it should be Gooden instead of Damp)

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by iella

Agree. Though at this point, it may be just a fluke because teams are so confused by "WHO THE F IS RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS" (a la Pistons fans last night) that they're chasing him around the court and leaving Dirk wide open. Maybe it's comparable to what happens when you take a laser pointer out in the vicinity of a cat. Roddy's speed draws the subconscious attention of the defense, so much so that they drift off their assignment.

There was a similar situation with JJB in years past, if my memory serves. The thing to watch is, once they realize who Roddy is, will they be able to adjust? I hope not.

The other thing is, I think that Roddy's ability to see what's going on has been increasing dramatically in the past few games. I hope it's not just inconsistency, but there were a few times last night when he made an extra pass when many rookies would have held on to the ball, and I also recall a time when he was falling out of bounds but had the presence of mind to find a teammate with the pass.

And on top of that, he can shoot a three AND finish a layup... a combination which seems to elude a certain veteran point guard of ours. In the end, as many people have said, it's still too early. But, as many people have also said, it's so fun to watch and imagine where this kid could go!

Surely it's not a fluke. Speed kills and he has plenty of it. The thing to watch out for is if he is making good decisions as we go along. Devin Harris had trouble with decision making for a long time here. I think when teams start to give Roddy respect he will have to do a few things better and better if he ever has hopes to be a top level player.
1)Finishing in traffic, which doesn't seem to be much of a problem.

2)Finding the open man when the defense gives help, which he did pretty well last night.

JJB can typically get around his man and knife thru the defense at will because of his speed but Roddy is so much more athletic! JJB has to be crafty to get his layups off and in, while Roddy can obviously get up higher and hang in the air around the rim as opposed to JJB.

[nowhereman]

Originally Posted by badfish22

If ya'll believe in +/- stats, take a look at this link. Look what lineup is number 1 in the league

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusmi...&split=9&team=

Thats who should finish games, not this 3 guard bull shit (of course last night it should be Gooden instead of Damp)

Yeah, that's the lineup we used to pull away from the Lakers and the Clippers too. It's very visibly our best one. But given Gooden's atrocious post defense and pick and roll defense, and his general tendency to ruin an offensive set, I would much rather let Dirk play the 5 and have ANYONE else in there to close games than either Gooden or Hump down the stretch. But with Damp available, and Josh out, I don't think there's any argument to be made against playing those 5 to close out the third and finish the game. That group has been absolutely dominant.

But I also think the Kidd/Terry/Howard/Marion/Dirk lineup to storm back at the end of the half against Houston is up there.

[CadBane]

So I'm hearing JJB is great at creating for himself now? He is shooting under 40%. In case you didn't know.

[Five-ofan]

Everyone seems to be of the notion that the reasoning for carlisle's choices are A) play roddy more minutes and have him develop but have the team be worse or B) play roddy less minutes and have the team be better but have roddy not develop. I propose option C as a possibility. Its entirely possible that Carlisle is slowly increasing Roddy's minutes because he believes it a better way to develop roddy than feeding him minutes hes not ready for. Confidence is an important thing, especially to a young player. Right now as a spot player, Roddy is a guy that receives very little advance scouting and no game planning. That coupled with his immense physical tools leads to him being placed in very good situations to succeed. That success can lead to improved confidence and limits his negative experiences. Im not proposing that this is the only possible scenario, simply stating that it is possible that Carlisle feels that playing roddy limited minutes is actually better for his development than spoon feeding him a ton of minutes.

And to be clear, as a fan id love to see roddy play 30 minutes a night. Aside from dirk and marion, theres no one on this team i enjoy watching more.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by kg_veteran

When I watched it in real time, I thought he did, too. When I watched a replay from a different angle, though, I don't think that he did.

And even if he did, the same NBA highlight reel shows Bynum taking at least three steps to get around Dirk and lay it in late in the game.

To me, the replay confirms the double dribble. He touches the ball with each hand before it hits the floor again. That's a violation, even if his hands don't touch the ball at the same time.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

To me, the replay confirms the double dribble. He touches the ball with each hand before it hits the floor again. That's a violation, even if his hands don't touch the ball at the same time.

I've seen that several times at several speeds. Roddy got away with one. I'm just surprised their bench and coaches weren't complaining, they had a good view of it.