Doc's official gameday thread...the electoral tracking official thread.

[FishForLunch]

I know you guys hate Sessions but he just won

[Drbio]

I hate Frost too....at least it went Repub. BTW, we have another thread for non-Presidential stuff. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Arizona just went Bush!

10 more electoral votes!

[u2sarajevo]

Pennsylvania is now Kerry.... according to CNN.

[Drbio]

Fox just gave Pennsylvania to Kerry...about two hours after I did. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-disgusted.gif[/img]

About time.
Bush leads 203-133

No surprises so far.

[Drbio]

Idaho goes to Bush as expected.

[Phil Helmuth]

Cali goes to sKerry.

[Drbio]

207-188 Bush...still no surprises.

[Drbio]

Washington went to Kerry....still no surprises.

207-199

[Dirkenstien]

Arizona just went Bush...tally on 10 more for Bush

[Murphy3]

GOP predicts Ohio, Bush win
Tue Nov 02 2004 23:02:04 ET

WASHINGTON, Nov. 2 (UPI) -- White House sources are telling UPI that they believe George W. Bush will win Ohio and be re-elected president of the United States.

At 10:30 p.m., Bush was told by a senior adviser that Ohio would land in the GOP column and put him over the top with at least 274 electoral votes, the sources said.

"We're very upbeat," Bush said as he watched returns in the Yellow Room at the White House with family members -- including his father, former President George H.W. Bush. "I believe I will win."

Bush's comments shortly before 10 p.m. EST reflected rising Republican hopes that Bush will win Florida and remain in contention in Ohio. Winning both those states would almost certainly return him to office.

The comments were also timed to reach voters in states where the polls had not yet closed including Hawaii, Nevada and Oregon. CNN had Bush leading with 193 electoral votes to Sen. John Kerry's 112.


from drudgereport.com

[Dirkenstien]

good news murphy

[mercury_rev]

Ohio breakdown by county

Looks like there are still lots of precincts waiting to report from Cuyahoga County, a Democrat stronghold (Cleveland)

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: Dirkenstien
Arizona just went Bush...tally on 10 more for Bush

I already declared Arizona...about 20 minutes ago. I have real time data streaming in from a service I subscribed to last month. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

Check the first post for basically real time updates.

[Drbio]

I have Bush up 207-199 right now.

[Drbio]

Update:

Bush leads 207-199.


Here are the lock states for Bush and their votes:
Montana - 3
Alaska - 3

That adds up to 6 more guaranteed electoral votes to bring Bush's total to 213 leaving only 56 votes needed. Bush leads still in Florida and I am pretty much sure he has Florida in pocket for 27 votes. That would give Bush 240 electoral votes needing only 29 more. Ohio is leaning Bush right now by 6% for another 20 electoral votes. That would be 260 votes...leaving a need for only nine more votes.

Could Wisconsin or Minnesota which have ten votes each put Bush over? What about New Mexico with 5 and Nevada with 5? Iowa's 7 votes plus Hawaii's 3? Colorado's 9?

I bet Kerry is sweating...of course...all of us should until official.

[Drbio]

Bush wins Montana...leads 210-199.

[FishForLunch]

Doc CNN, C-Span are slow compared to your numbers

[FishForLunch]

So it all comes down to Ohio

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: FishForLunch
Doc CNN, C-Span are slow compared to your numbers

I am getting my data from the Public Election Commission in real time (to the tune of $250).


I haven't missed one yet. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[Dirkenstien]

As it currently stands:

95% of Florida's precints have been recorded with Bush leading 52%-47%

In Ohio 61% of precints have been recorded with Bush leading 52%-48%



...looking like Bush has Florida...Ohio is going to go down to the wire

[FishForLunch]

On FOX Mike Baronne just broke down Ohio counties, and said very close to call

[Drbio]

I saw that Fish...it was pretty dadgum good.

I am about to call Florida for Bush but I am waiting on one more county. Ohio is favoring Bush by 4.8% right now with a majority of traditionally republican counties to be counted. Good news for Bush in Ohio.

[Dirkenstien]

97% of precints are now reporting a 52%-47% lead for Bush...this ones about to be in the bag

[Drbio]

If Kerry can't win Ohio it is over.

[Drbio]

It cannot be called yet....still too much population unreported. It's getting damn close and I doubt there is any way Bush can lose Florida.

[FishForLunch]

Susan estrich is saying even though Florida looks to be in Bush's bag, the Dem lawyers are lining up to sue the pants off. Ohio votes not counted are urban votes

[Drbio]

Latest popular vote tally.....

Bush leads Kerry 51.7%-47.4% (Nader has 0.9%)

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: FishForLunch
Susan estrich is saying even though Florida looks to be in Bush's bag, the Dem lawyers are lining up to sue the pants off. Ohio votes not counted are urban votes

Dim lawyers have been waiting all day to start suing. It's a sore loser mentality and has been long expected.

[Drbio]

In Ohio, Cleveland is in and counted. Those remaining votes will have a hard time overcoming the margin.

[mercury_rev]

Doc, thanks for all the updates!

I just hope if Bush wins the electoral vote he also wins the popular vote.

[FishForLunch]

Chris Mattews is really sad now lamenting why Kerry cannot win a single southern state

[Drbio]

Popular vote update for mercury_rev:

Bush leads now 52.1% to Kerrys 47.3% and Nader's 0.8%.


There is so much data coming right now I am having a hard time keeping up with it. Let me know if you have specific race interests. Otherwise I will only concentrate o nthe presidential stuff and a select few others in the other thread.

[Dirkenstien]

Originally posted by: mercury_rev
Doc, thanks for all the updates!

I just hope if Bush wins the electoral vote he also wins the popular vote.

58% of precincts reporting a Bush52%-Kerry48% popular vote.

[Drbio]

Holy crap....James Carville just said it was time for Kerry to acknowledge that Bush has the upper hand in this election. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-shocked.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

CNN just refuses to project Arizona to Bush who clearly has won. It is up to 55-44% and rising. I think they are gun shy because of their Florida screw up four years ago.

[Dirkenstien]

70% of precincts in Ohio are reporting Bush 52%-Kerry 48%

[Male30Dan]

Per Yahoo, Bush just won Florida

[FishForLunch]

Oregon just called for Kerry

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: Male23Dan
Per Yahoo, Bush just won Florida

The problem is that Seminole county has not reported. I don't see how Yahoo can project that definitively.

I was about to award Florida myself, but I thought I might wait for at least a few precincts in Seminole.